Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[BrockLobster]

Lou eats pizza with a knife and fork.

Confession: me too.

 

[MarsTBOW]

Lou eats pizza with a knife and fork.

Only Sicilian Pie

 

[13th Floor]

Trying to put my thoughts about the possession numbers so far into the crudest full season implication terms. I'm no statistician and there's obvious more factors here, but:

- League shooting percentage has been around 10% for the past 5 years or so. That means league save % should be right around 90% or .900.

- The Islanders are averaging 33 shots a game, third in the league. If average shooting % is a sticky stat, they should expect to land right around 3.3 goals per game if they kept that up for the rest of the season.

- The Islanders are allowing 25.3 shots per game - however, teams that face the Islanders to not face a league average of goaltending over time.
They're going to face Sorokin and Varlamov who have posted a 91.3% save percentage in their 4 years as a tandem, meaning that teams have had an 8.7% shooting percentage against the Isles over that time, agnostic of coach or system.

- 25.3 shots at a 8.7% clip is 2.2 goals a game. So with the possession numbers they've posted, it should lead to them expecting about 3.3 goals a game and giving up about 2.2 goals a game over a full season, which is exactly a 2:1 ratio (didn't expect it to work out that cleanly!)

- If you're expecting to win games at a 2:1 ratio over a full season where there are 164 points available, that would put you on track for 108 points, which would have been good for 5th in the conference and 8th in the league last season.

Again, super crude numbers here, and not accounting for X factors... but I think we are seeing what Roy's plan is. Combine dominant possession numbers with above average (and potentially elite) goaltending. It makes a lot of sense when you consider the strengths of our best players, and our lack of a game breaking scorer. Barzal usually in the top 3 in possession metrics and Sorokin usually in the top three in Save %. Puck bounces a different way a couple of times and I think we're all a bit more optimistic.

I feel like you kind of made your point and refuted your point, heh. If we regress to the mean, then goals will start going in, but we know those X factors are real and this group is in the bottom quartile of finishing, and so this is what we get. I agree that some puck luck our way, especially in two separate 1-0 losses, and things look better in the standings, but the underlying vibe is same old same old, and I think we all know what we got here, especially since we lost the only new addition to the roster for the rest of the calendar year. Nobody on this team is cracking the PPG threshold. I'd put coin on that.

This season comes down to Sorokin standing on his head (and, relatedly, not being dead last in PK), which is at best good enough to get a WC and maybe win a round. I can get excited enough to root for that, but I'm not fooling my self into expecting more.

I'm also very curious to play a game in our division. I think that will be telling.