Actually Hagens started out concensus #1, but it's not a slam dunk and things have been shifting...
NHL Draft 2025 top prospects: Porter Martone ranks No. 1, James Hagens drops to No. 2
2025 NHL Draft Rankings: Schaefer swipes No. 1 spot in mid-season top 64
And I'd be lying if I didn't say I was concerned about Hagen's size/weight. I think he'd be more of a slam dunk if he was 6'0/190
Great post. Totally agree.
In fact would be awesome to get a 1st in 2026. Aside from the fact that draft looks nice, any 2025 1st we get will be guaranteed to be 20th or later. However if we get a 2026 1st maybe that team has a horrible offseason and/or gets his with injuries and it could be top 12 pick in 2026.
Draft rankings are bound to fluctuate throughout the year, but that doesn't diminish James Hagens' status as an elite prospect. Blogs, polls, and articles often chase clicks and engagement, with pundits pushing their narratives to gain traction. Some of these takes, however, seem out of touch.
Take, for instance, the buzz around Schaefer potentially going first overall—despite being injured since December 30th. This article, written on January 16th, ignores that context entirely. It’s baffling. Sure, he’s over a point-per-game in just 17 games this season, but the OHL’s recent scoring trends make those numbers less impressive—especially when prospects are regularly exceeding 1.5 points per game. Schaefer’s production last season was underwhelming, and his WJC performance was a non-factor due to his injury. Meanwhile, Hagens not only centred Team USA’s gold-medal-winning top line but has also led the #2-ranked NCAA team with four points in three games since returning from the WJC.
The Schaefer hype even includes comparisons to Cale Makar, which feels completely unfounded. Schaefer’s value seems artificially inflated.
Meanwhile, Hagens has been quietly driving play in the NCAA as an 18-year-old, despite an initially snakebitten start. The goals are coming now, and his contributions extend far beyond scoring. On top of that, he added a gold medal to his résumé.
As for Michael Misa, his insane OHL production is undeniable, but his omission from Canada’s WJC roster speaks volumes about how his game is perceived at the international level. Coaches didn’t trust him to contribute. Similarly, Porter Martone—a highly productive player in the defensively lax OHL—was a healthy scratch for two games during the tournament after being selected. Bloggers and pundits may push narratives, but Team Canada’s decisions tell another story.
The Hagens vs. McKenna debate is an intriguing one. McKenna’s talent is undeniable, but as a winger, he doesn’t play a premium position. Sure, he could develop into a Kucherov-level player, which would be exceptional, but there’s also the risk of him following the career trajectories of Alex Lafrenière or Taylor Hall. Hagens, on the other hand, plays center, a role every NHL team covets, and he’s thriving in a tougher league than the OHL.
Some of the discourse around Hagens may stem from his Long Island roots, but it’s clear he has all the tools—elite skating, puck possession, and hockey IQ—to be a modern NHL star. San Jose, Chicago, and Nashville are all likely to pick him if he’s available, even at 5'11" and 180 pounds.
Only Schaefer comes close to matching Hagens in terms of skating and puck skills, and while Misa and Martone offer standout shooting and size, respectively, Hagens’ all-around abilities are far better suited for today’s NHL. When it comes to drafting first overall, Hagens is the logical choice.
I agree, hopefully Palms gets hot and someone overpays. Most likely he’s worth a 2nd round pick.
The Capitals could use him, and their first-round pick might be in play.
New Jersey also stands out as a potential trade partner. They need a top-six forward, and I’d happily take two of their three second-round picks in exchange.
As for Jean-Gabriel Pageau, the Islanders might look to offload him closer to the trade deadline. Given his versatility and playoff experience, he could fetch a decent return, especially from a contender looking to solidify their depth down the middle.
Dream -
Nelson to Dallas for the 2025 1st (likely 22 to 25 or possibly 31 or 32 if they make it to the SC final) and Mavrik Bourque
Pageau to NJ for one of their 2025 2nd pick (likely the 54 - 56 pick) and Tatar for cap reasons
Palmieri to Was for the 2025 1st (likely 28-32)
This would give the Isles 5 picks in the Top 60 of this draft.