Roster Evaluation Game

[DigitalBoldy]

Pack-A-Day podcast played a roster evaluation game on Monday this week and I want to try something similar with the Wild roster.

They evaluated the roster using the question: Can you win a Super Bowl because of this position group, with this position group, or is this position group holding the team back?

I'm going to change it up just a touch. Instead of evaluating position groups, I want us to go 1-by-1 through the roster and ask ourselves: Is this a player that we can win the Stanley Cup:
1) Because of - meaning they are key factor or play a pivotal role in us winning a Cup
2) With - meaning they are not a key factor, but they are also not a detriment to the team
3) This player is not someone we can win the Cup with - self explanatory


Kaprizov -
Rossi -
Zuccarello -
Boldy -
Eriksson Ek -
Johansson -
Foligno -
Gaudreau -
Hartman -
Hinostroza -
Nyquist -
Trenin -
Shore -
Brazeau -

Faber -
Brodin -
Spurgeon -
Middleton -
Merrill -
Bogosian -
Chisholm -

Gustavsson -
Fleury -

 

[AKL]

I don't know how well this translates to the individual level in hockey. I'm calling the players like Trenin/Johansson passengers. Any team that wins the Cup will have some passengers. Our issue is we have so many passengers that we're not good enough to win. But take a passenger like Trenin, and put him on a team like Winnipeg or Dallas with less passengers, and they can still win the Cup with him. A lot of our guys would fall into this category

I'd also say you look at a guy like Shore, or Brazeau, or Merrill... A team that's good enough to win a Cup isn't going to have many or any players like that because they're most likely deeper and more skilled, their 4th liners would be better than those guys.

Other question is what do you mean by pivotal role? Are we talking big minute, potentially high scoring or equivalent defensively (ie first line/first pair) or just top six/top four?

But for the fun of it:

Kaprizov - because of
Rossi - fringe, right now he's with, could see him becoming because of
Zuccarello - with, as a depth player in the bottom six
Boldy - because of
Eriksson Ek - because of/with, his defense could have an outsized impact
Johansson - can't/with
Foligno - with
Gaudreau - with
Hartman - with
Hinostroza - can't/with
Nyquist - current iteration of him? can't/with
Trenin - can't/with
Shore - can't
Brazeau - can't

Faber - because of
Brodin - with
Spurgeon - with
Middleton - with
Merrill - can't
Bogosian - can't
Chisholm - can't

Gustavsson - because of/with
Fleury - with/can't

 

[MNRube]

1s: Kaprizov, JEE, Faber, Brodin

1.5s*: Rossi, Spurgeon, Boldy

2s: Foligno, Middleton, Hartman, Gaudreau, Mojo

2.5s**: Trenin, Nyquist, Bogo

3s: Hinostroza, Brazeau, Chisholm, Fleury, Merrill, Shore

* - Previous poor playoff performance (Boldy, Spurgeon) or need to be surrounded by elite talent (Rossi).

** - Need to be on 4th line or 3rd pair in a heavily sheltered role
===========================

Merrill - probably deserves to be 2.5 but still prone to the odd grenade and can’t have that.

Mojo - he’s been our best skater of late. Earned the spot as a 2. Contract year assassin.

MAF - probably should be 2 or 2.5, but his penchant for letting in an early softie is a killer in the playoffs.

Hinostroza - really slowed down and turns it over at the blueline way too much for postseason play.

Chisholm / Brazeau - cannot see the ice in a playoff series at full health. Blatant liabilities.

Brodin - probably a 1.5 but you need a pure shutdown guy in the playoffs and he’s our best at that.

Faber - playing like a 2 post-concussion but I have faith. Warrior.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Other question is what do you mean by pivotal role? Are we talking big minute, potentially high scoring or equivalent defensively (ie first line/first pair) or just top six/top four?

Meaning they are a driving factor in the team being successful. That could be a high scoring player. That could be a high end penalty killer or shutdown guy. Up to your own interpretation.

 

[f7ben]

Kaprizov - because of
Rossi - with
Zuccarello - not in top 6
Boldy - with
Eriksson Ek - with
Johansson - not in top 6
Foligno - not in top 6
Gaudreau - not in top 6
Hartman - not in top 6
Hinostroza - not in top 9
Nyquist - not in top 6
Trenin - not in top 9
Shore - not anywhere
Brazeau - not anywhere

Faber - with
Brodin - with
Spurgeon - not
Middleton - with
Merrill - not
Bogosian - not
Chisholm - not

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Sorry to not play the game as presented, but this is how I think of it...

This is the type of roster that I feel would be a legit contender, our guys intermixed with examples of other players:

Kaprizov - PPG C(1) - Zuccarello(2)
Boldy - Rossi - Play-driving winger(3)
3LW(4) - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
Foligno - Good 4C(5) - Gaudreau is probably fine

Better D than Faber(6) - Faber
Brodin - Better D than Brodin(7)
Middleton - Spurgeon

Not going to do goalies since everybody says you can win with anyone if the team is good enough.

(1) examples = Seabass Aho, maybe Barzal
(2) stand-in for any good veteran-type player that has chemistry with Kaprizov (like Marchessault had with Eichel) or when Nyquist was good with Nashville
(3) examples = Good Fiala, Konecny
(4) more offensively inclined, but still good defensive winger; example = maybe Nino N?
(5) example = Stenlund maybe?
(6) top end example would be Heiskanen, middle end maybe a prime Letang
(7) more offensively inclined but can also handle matchups and physicality, maybe Pulock or Carlo. Examples elude me at the moment

 

[AKL]

Sorry to not play the game as presented, but this is how I think of it...

This is the type of roster that I feel would be a legit contender, our guys intermixed with examples of other players:

Kaprizov - PPG C(1) - Zuccarello(2)
Boldy - Rossi - Play-driving winger(3)
3LW(4) - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
Foligno - Good 4C(5) - Gaudreau is probably fine

Better D than Faber(6) - Faber
Brodin - Better D than Brodin(7)
Middleton - Spurgeon

Not going to do goalies since everybody says you can win with anyone if the team is good enough.

(1) examples = Seabass Aho, maybe Barzal
(2) stand-in for any good veteran-type player that has chemistry with Kaprizov (like Marchessault had with Eichel) or when Nyquist was good with Nashville
(3) examples = Good Fiala, Konecny
(4) more offensively inclined, but still good defensive winger; example = maybe Nino N?
(5) example = Stenlund maybe?
(6) top end example would be Heiskanen, middle end maybe a prime Letang
(7) more offensively inclined but can also handle matchups and physicality, maybe Pulock or Carlo. Examples elude me at the moment

This is more or less how I see it, with a couple caveats/exceptions/notes:

1) I think Boldy can be (3) if we can find another 60-70 point support winger (possibly Yurov?)
2) Love the Nino call out for (4), he'd be perfect if he wasn't almost 33, but someone exactly like him would be ideal
3) Think Gaudreau can be your 4C if it's easier to find a good 4RW
4) That's already a lot of money in the bottom six
5) Hoping beyond hope that Buium can be (6)
6) Hoping beyond hope that Jiricek can be (7)
7) That's an expensive bottom pair, Spurgeon has to go at that point
8) Overall I think you built a very high end contender here, I don't think we need quite that much, and I'm hoping some of the pieces are already in the system

 

[MNRube]

Sorry to not play the game as presented, but this is how I think of it...

This is the type of roster that I feel would be a legit contender, our guys intermixed with examples of other players:

Kaprizov - PPG C(1) - Zuccarello(2)
Boldy - Rossi - Play-driving winger(3)
3LW(4) - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
Foligno - Good 4C(5) - Gaudreau is probably fine

Better D than Faber(6) - Faber
Brodin - Better D than Brodin(7)
Middleton - Spurgeon

Not going to do goalies since everybody says you can win with anyone if the team is good enough.

(1) examples = Seabass Aho, maybe Barzal
(2) stand-in for any good veteran-type player that has chemistry with Kaprizov (like Marchessault had with Eichel) or when Nyquist was good with Nashville
(3) examples = Good Fiala, Konecny
(4) more offensively inclined, but still good defensive winger; example = maybe Nino N?
(5) example = Stenlund maybe?
(6) top end example would be Heiskanen, middle end maybe a prime Letang
(7) more offensively inclined but can also handle matchups and physicality, maybe Pulock or Carlo. Examples elude me at the moment

I also think our roster + Aho, Konecny, Nino, Stenlund, Heiskanen, Pulock would be a contender.

Almost every team in the league is a contender if you add those guys.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I also think our roster + Aho, Konecny, Nino, Stenlund, Heiskanen, Pulock would be a contender.

Almost every team in the league is a contender if you add those guys.

Well sure, that's what Dallas' roster is, what Vegas' roster is, what Winnipeg's roster is. What Colorado's roster was when they won, what Florida's was, what Tampa's was.

I know it looks ridiculous seeing those names, but that is what other teams have.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is more or less how I see it, with a couple caveats/exceptions/notes:

1) I think Boldy can be (3) if we can find another 60-70 point support winger (possibly Yurov?)
2) Love the Nino call out for (4), he'd be perfect if he wasn't almost 33, but someone exactly like him would be ideal
3) Think Gaudreau can be your 4C if it's easier to find a good 4RW
4) That's already a lot of money in the bottom six
5) Hoping beyond hope that Buium can be (6)
6) Hoping beyond hope that Jiricek can be (7)
7) That's an expensive bottom pair, Spurgeon has to go at that point
8) Overall I think you built a very high end contender here, I don't think we need quite that much, and I'm hoping some of the pieces are already in the system

Problem is, waiting for Zeev, Yurov, Jiricek to get to those spots might mean Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, (hypothetical) Konecny/Fiala, Brodin are all 3-4 years older.

Obviously for just a playoff team with a chip/chair/chance it's overkill. I'm talking about a roster that you look at on opening night are legit properly disappointed if you're not playing in the Conference finals. That's how I qualify a "true contender".

 

[MNRube]

Well sure, that's what Dallas' roster is, what Vegas' roster is, what Winnipeg's roster is. What Colorado's roster was when they won, what Florida's was, what Tampa's was.

I know it looks ridiculous seeing those names, but that is what other teams have.

They’d have this is you put Dallas’s forwards with Vegas’s blueline. The other issue is that this team is about $25-40M over the cap

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

They’d have this is you put Dallas’s forwards with Vegas’s blueline. The other issue is that this team is about $25-40M over the cap

Sounds like the GM's problem.

If you want to swap out one of them with a hotshot ELC like Wyatt Johnston and get rid of Spurgeon, go ahead.

 

[AKL]

Problem is, waiting for Zeev, Yurov, Jiricek to get to those spots might mean Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, (hypothetical) Konecny/Fiala, Brodin are all 3-4 years older.

This is why my philosophy/strategy/whatever is to wait until you have most of the pieces in place before you start looking at bringing in the Barzal or the Konecny/Fiala or the Pulock/Carlo. God willing in a few years we might have a legit roster that looks like:

Kaprizov-X-Y
Yurov-Rossi-Boldy
Ohgren-Eriksson Ek-Y
Foligno-Gaudreau-Y

Buium-Faber
Y-Jiricek
Middleton-Y

And of course you fill in the Y's in the meantime with age and role appropriate players, and then you go out and acquire whoever fits in the X's at the time as the final pieces. We're not in a position right now to say, okay let's go get a Konecny and a Barzal and a Pulock and we'll be good to go, because we still have a lot of other holes down the lineup we need to fill first. Waiting on Buium, Jiricek, Yurov is part of that. If we're just going to jump ahead of them and try to sign/trade for guys, there's no real purpose to having those prospects.

Obviously for just a playoff team with a chip/chair/chance it's overkill. I'm talking about a roster that you look at on opening night are legit properly disappointed if you're not playing in the Conference finals. That's how I qualify a "true contender".

I guess I'm hoping that in a few years, the only piece we'll really need is the 1C to complete the lineup, and that what we have in the pipeline can fill in the rest. Obviously that's no sure thing.

And I wait until it's filled out to get that final piece because then you can get a 27-28 year old guy in his prime a la Jack Eichel to the Knights, rather than getting Jack Eichel 5 years ago and now he's 31-32 when the rest of the pieces fall into place.

 

[MNRube]

Sounds like the GM's problem.

If you want to swap out one of them with a hotshot ELC like Wyatt Johnston and get rid of Spurgeon, go ahead.

I think you can remove Aho and Pulock and still have a roster that clears Winnipeg’s and is contender worthy. Keep in mind they likely lose Ehlers and have had virtually perfect health for 2 years in a row.

============
Kap-JEE-Boldy
Yurov-Nelson-Zucc
Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman
Foligno-Freddy-Trenin

Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Buium-Jiricek/Bogo

I think that’s pretty clearly a Top 10 roster. Only real addition is Nelson. Of the other Top 10 teams, how many have as much internal upside as we would with Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, Jiricek and Wallstedt?

As usual in the NHL, it will come down to health, special teams and goaltending. But that’s a good enough foundation. I want to see what we look like this fall before we go scorched earth and trade guys because they couldn’t perform above their natural standing in the lineup.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think you can remove Aho and Pulock and still have a roster that clears Winnipeg’s and is contender worthy. Keep in mind they likely lose Ehlers and have had virtually perfect health for 2 years in a row.

============
Kap-JEE-Boldy
Yurov-Nelson-Zucc
Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman
Foligno-Freddy-Trenin

Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Buium-Jiricek/Bogo

I think that’s pretty clearly a Top 10 roster. Only real addition is Nelson. Of the other Top 10 teams, how many have as much internal upside as we would with Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, Jiricek and Wallstedt.

As usual in the NHL, it will come down to health, special teams and goaltending. But that’s a good enough foundation.

That's still Kaprizov dragging the roster to wherever it ends up going. Or, JEE and Faber need to bounce back (and then some) + Yurov and Buium need to be really, really good.

 

[AKL]

Kap-JEE-Boldy
Yurov-Nelson-Zucc
Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman
Foligno-Freddy-Trenin

Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Buium-Jiricek/Bogo

This isn't contender worthy lol

 

[MNRube]

That's still Kaprizov dragging the roster to wherever it ends up going. Or, JEE and Faber need to bounce back (and then some) + Yurov and Buium need to be really, really good.

The alternative is hoping for Guerin to win like 5 hockey trades this summer. I think we are still in a really good spot if we can resign Kap.

 

[f7ben]

The alternative is hoping for Guerin to win like 5 hockey trades this summer. I think we are still in a really good spot if we can resign Kap.

Kap is shown he alone along with being backstopped by even competent goaltending can drag a team to at the very least bubble status. That is such a low bar for a GM to build from it’s amazing we are still just barely treading water.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The alternative is hoping for Guerin to win like 5 hockey trades this summer. I think we are still in a really good spot if we can resign Kap.

Nowhere did I say that I thought it was easy or even possible. Just saying that's close to the kind of roster that I'd go into the season expecting to win with. Everything else is just hoping.

But, then again, Washington being really good doesn't make a ton of sense to me either.

 

[AKL]

Kap is shown he alone along with being backstopped by even competent goaltending can drag a team to at the very least bubble status. That is such a low bar for a GM to build from it’s amazing we are still just barely treading water.

Problem is you need more than just Kaprizov in the playoffs. That's why we need to add a couple real top six pieces. And I mean Zuccarello gets demoted, Yurov is a legit top six player, and you still add another real 1st line forward.

And Buium and Jiricek still need to replace Brodin and Spurgeon in the top 3 of this D. Brodin and Spurgeon are proven losers in the playoffs. It goes back to the premise of this thread, you can win with them, you cannot win if they're your "pivotal" defensemen.

 

[MNRube]

Nowhere did I say that I thought it was easy or even possible. Just saying that's close to the kind of roster that I'd go into the season expecting to win with. Everything else is just hoping.

But, then again, Washington being really good doesn't make a ton of sense to me either.

It won’t be easy, but if we stand our ground and sign one of Boeser/Nelson/Duchene/Ehlers we will enter next year with our best roster ever and a half dozen really good prospects knocking on the door. Of all the options, I think that’s the best route.

It’s really hard to be objective right now with the team cratering and Kap’s contract looming.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It won’t be easy, but if we stand our ground and sign one of Boeser/Nelson/Duchene/Ehlers we will enter next year with our best roster ever and a half dozen really good prospects knocking on the door. Of all the options, I think that’s the best route.

It’s really hard to be objective right now with the team cratering and Kap’s contract looming.

One man's 'objective' is another's 'optimistic' I guess.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

This isn't contender worthy lol

Would depend heavily on Yurov-Nelson-Zucc being a competent secondary scoring line.

I would probably rotate the centers around. Rossi at 1C, Ek at 2C, Nelson at 3C.

Yurov is a shooter, so pairing him with Zucc could be a good combo. Ohgren-Zucc could also be a good combo if the lineup needs changing.

I have issues with Brodin and Spurgeon cratering in the playoffs. Nothing new there.

 

[AKL]

Would depend heavily on Yurov-Nelson-Zucc being a competent secondary scoring line.

I would probably rotate the centers around. Rossi at 1C, Ek at 2C, Nelson at 3C.

Yurov is a shooter, so pairing him with Zucc could be a good combo. Ohgren-Zucc could also be a good combo if the lineup needs changing.

I have issues with Brodin and Spurgeon cratering in the playoffs. Nothing new there.

I have major issues relying on Nelson-Zuccarello to do much of anything on their own. Put them with a guy like Kaprizov and they could be serviceable players, but that's asking a lot of Kaprizov.

I like Yurov but I dont expect him to come in and be a line driver right away.

If that's the plan, I would run:

Yurov-Rossi-Boldy
Kaprizov-Nelson-Zuccarello
Öhgren-Ek-Hartman

But that's still not a Cup contending offense, and

And Buium and Jiricek still need to replace Brodin and Spurgeon in the top 3 of this D. Brodin and Spurgeon are proven losers in the playoffs. It goes back to the premise of this thread, you can win with them, you cannot win if they're your "pivotal" defensemen.

 

[Wabit]

Where the current players fit together as a contending roster.
Kap-???-???
Boldy-JEE-Rossi
???-???-Zucc
Foligno-Freddy G-Trenin (maybe Hartman, but he does too much dumb stuff)

???/Faber
Brodin/???
Middleton/???

A goalie would need to be god-tier to matter for this mental game.

The roster is really LHS heavy and missing (playoff quality) physicality everywhere except JEE and the 4th line. I'm not even sure of Brodin at this point, but I think his speed will be needed for at least one Playoff series in a Cup run.