Roster Building XXVI: Picking Our Teeth Off The Ice

[htdoc]

If the cap sites are to be believed, doesn’t Chatfield have full no move on his contract? I think that was part of why we got him for the deal we did…. So he is going nowhere in the deals and possible roster build outs in prior posts. Love seeing all the possible iterations of rosters next year based on various moves. Want to see more of that as we try to guess where the team goes with things..

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Division is within reach, but I think we'd have to goalie the opponent to get by either Tampa or Florida. Doable but not likely. I think our weakness at RD1 is going to be too much to overcome in that regard. Would be some real karmic shit if we did goalie Florida in the ECF though.

I have absolutely no clue how Rod would approach Nikishin if we get him over here in the next month or so. I could easily see Rod playing the pay your dues game with him and making him the 7th man or 3rd pair, but I could also see Nikishin coming in and blowing everyone away and Rod immediately slotting him with Slavin while "demoting" Burns to 3rd pair. If the latter, and Nikishin proves to be everything we hope and expect from him, that could seriously be a game changer for this team in these playoffs and could have us contending with the Bolts, Panthers and top teams from the West. As much as Nikishin has been hyped up, I honestly do still think his immediate impact could shock a lot of people.

 

[Unsustainable]

I have absolutely no clue how Rod would approach Nikishin if we get him over here in the next month or so. I could easily see Rod playing the pay your dues game with him and making him the 7th man or 3rd pair, but I could also see Nikishin coming in and blowing everyone away and Rod immediately slotting him with Slavin while "demoting" Burns to 3rd pair. If the latter, and Nikishin proves to be everything we hope and expect from him, that could seriously be a game changer for this team in these playoffs and could have us contending with the Bolts, Panthers and top teams from the West. As much as Nikishin has been hyped up, I honestly do still think his immediate impact could shock a lot of people.

Nikishin is LHD, Morrow is RHD

I can't see Rod moving Slavin to his offside

 

[Unsustainable]

So Dobson in trade, Boeser and Bennett UFAs?

Then maybe pry out Binnington?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I agree with the concept but not with your assessment of the players. Maybe we just define "core" differently, but I view our core players right now as being Aho, Slavin, Jarvis, Svech. That's it. I think Nikishin we can "expect" to be a core a player in that mold, but the others are very much long shots if each is viewed in a vacuum and nobody else on our roster or in our pipeline is "likely" to become a core player.

I think out of our group of current young roster players and prospects we get 1-2 more core players but it's a toss of the dice who it winds up being. I'd have my money on Blake, Nadeau or Artamonov over guys like Stank and Morrow.

But I totally agree with you on the key role player aspect too, which several of these guys could become. Koko is nowhere near a core player and I'd move him in a heartbeat for a big upgrade if we needed to, but he is a valuable role player that is on a good long term contract. Staal's presence makes it a little more complicated in his case right now but if no Staal then Koko is a perfect long term 3C. And I would've loved to keep Foegele long term at the right $ -- I suspect he preferred to bet on himself, and he's done very well since leaving here. The thing is though, on those types of deals the cap hit really has to be a bargain and to get guys on a bargain you kind of have to limit their opportunity a bit at the beginning for their production to be lower to warrant a lower cap hit and then the issue is guys wanting more opportunity to prove themselves and earn more (similar to what I think was happening with Necas). Personally I'd hand Blake an 8 year deal at like 5mil a year this offseason. I don't think he'd take it but I'd offer it and hope he would consider it. Morrow, Stank, others we just haven't quite seen enough of.

I define the core as anyone who can be a long-term fixture in either our top-6 forwards or top-4 defense. A core guy in his RFA days is not necessarily going to be a core guy when his UFA years hit (see Skjei, for example), but if they're elite enough to the point where paying UFA prices is viable (like with Aho or Slavin), they can be.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Nikishin is LHD, Morrow is RHD

I can't see Rod moving Slavin to his offside

I know their handedness, Nikishin can play his offhand side.

 

[spockBokk]

Sure would suck to bring Nikishin over, sign him, have him play a few regular season/playoff games and burn the 1st year of ELC, bringing him to RFA status at the same time as Morrow, Blake and Stankoven.

I’d almost rather he not come over until the summer. Also, I wonder if they’ll try to get a head start on some of the RFAs this summer. Seems like it’d be a good idea…

 

[Joe McGrath]

Sure would suck to bring Nikishin over, sign him, have him play a few regular season/playoff games and burn the 1st year of ELC, bringing him to RFA status at the same time as Morrow, Blake and Stankoven.

I’d almost rather he not come over until the summer. Also, I wonder if they’ll try to get a head start on some of the RFAs this summer. Seems like it’d be a good idea…

They are going to burn the year either with him physically playing or not. With the ELC situation that’s basically all the Canes have to offer him to get him to come over.

 

[DaveG]

They are going to burn the year either with him physically playing or not. With the ELC situation that’s basically all the Canes have to offer him to get him to come over.

This. I REALLY can't see the team hardballing to get him to start his contract next season when they've been trying like hell the past, what, 3 years now? to get him over. I'm just hoping they don't screw with the negotiations on his second contract too much since that could be a Gaudreau type situation.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Playoff Projections for Nikishin. With 75 points, they are in 3rd in their division and looks like they would play the 2nd team in the other Division in their Conference (that has 82 points).

Their first round projected schedule:

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Sure would suck to bring Nikishin over, sign him, have him play a few regular season/playoff games and burn the 1st year of ELC, bringing him to RFA status at the same time as Morrow, Blake and Stankoven.

I’d almost rather he not come over until the summer. Also, I wonder if they’ll try to get a head start on some of the RFAs this summer. Seems like it’d be a good idea…

Nah, don't mess around with the guy and give him any reason not to want to come here asap. We try that bullshit and he'll probably sign a 2 year deal with SKA. I'd also be hurrying to extend him 8 years personally.

 

[htdoc]

If his team makes the playoffs, even if they bow out first round and the team terminates the contract early (instead of its current May timeframe to officially end), then he isn’t getting here before the end of the season…. He can play in playoffs and that will not count against his contract as a year burnt…. Only way he burns a year is for him to come before the end of Canes regular season and play games, which likely isn’t happening at this point.

Now whether Rod would play him in a playoff game before he played any regular season games? That will be the $64 million dollar question.

I’m sure the team would willingly burn a year off the deal as enticement to get him here sooner. But I don’t think that is an option for us this year….

 

[Sigurd]

So Dobson in trade, Boeser and Bennett UFAs?

Then maybe pry out Binnington?

If Morrow continues looking good for us, getting Dobson as our 1RD doesn't look as important anymore, and in which case, I personally think it might be wiser to trade for a very skilled top 6 forward (as great as Dobson is). I don't know what the trade market will be for Carolina this summer though, and I don't know exactly what the costs would be for our targets and for Dobson.

Assuming Morrow is ready to be 1RD next season (let's also not forget we might extend Burns for 1 more year), I'd like either signing Ehlers, or if not, signing Marner, AND either trade for a 2C, or sign Benett as our 2C.

I'm not sure if the Islanders will actually shop Barzal (who is a right handed center no less), but as someone previously said in this topic, why not target Horvat? He pretty much always gets over 20 goals a season, and sometimes 30. Looking at his stats though, he is consistently good at faceoffs every season; he's never been under 50%. That's pretty nice, and especially with Staal's retirement not being too far away.

If the Islanders are looking to rebuild, you'd think Horvat would be one of the first they'd trade since he is 29 and turns 30 this April, and is obviously a skilled/valuable player for a trade. Not Dobson who is 25, and maybe not even Barzal who is 27 going on 28 this May. However, I just saw that Horvat has a NTC, but if the Islanders want to rebuild, and Horvat wants to play for a contending team since he's about to turn 30, it makes sense he'd be okay playing for us.

 

[LBS I Digress]

I just heard Seravalli say on his show with Jason Gregor that our final offer to Mikko was $14x8. I’ve heard a bunch of different numbers (ranges from around $12.5 now all the way up to $14) so far, but if that one’s true I really am pretty interested to see if we go all in on Marner now knowing we’ve expressed some interest.

I still think a deal probably gets done in Toronto, but if they flameout again and we’re really willing to throw out that type of deal rn to secure a top 10-15 player, I could see some “soft tampering,” taking place during June


Edit***: I’m an idiot, it’s in the other thread, ignore me lol

 

[DaveG]

If his team makes the playoffs, even if they bow out first round and the team terminates the contract early (instead of its current May timeframe to officially end), then he isn’t getting here before the end of the season…. He can play in playoffs and that will not count against his contract as a year burnt…. Only way he burns a year is for him to come before the end of Canes regular season and play games, which likely isn’t happening at this point.

Now whether Rod would play him in a playoff game before he played any regular season games? That will be the $64 million dollar question.

I’m sure the team would willingly burn a year off the deal as enticement to get him here sooner. But I don’t think that is an option for us this year….

I'm not sure that's correct unless it's a recentish change. The Kaprizov situation in 2020 was weird because of Covid bullshit, but Makar joined Colorado from UMass at a similar point and didn't play until the playoffs, still counted as the first year of his ELC.

 

[Borsig]

I saw we "rest" Orlov (you know its not happening for burns unfortunately) and give morrow a bigger look.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I saw we "rest" Orlov (you know it’s not happening for burns unfortunately) and give morrow a bigger look.

Morrow was solid the other night and wasn’t taking the adventures that he had in the past.

I’d add, he showed a burns like rapid shot but always seemed to be on target.

 

[Unsustainable]

If Morrow continues looking good for us, getting Dobson as our 1RD doesn't look as important anymore, and in which case, I personally think it might be wiser to trade for a very skilled top 6 forward (as great as Dobson is). I don't know what the trade market will be for Carolina this summer though, and I don't know exactly what the costs would be for our targets and for Dobson.

Assuming Morrow is ready to be 1RD next season (let's also not forget we might extend Burns for 1 more year), I'd like either signing Ehlers, or if not, signing Marner, AND either trade for a 2C, or sign Benett as our 2C.

I'm not sure if the Islanders will actually shop Barzal (who is a right handed center no less), but as someone previously said in this topic, why not target Horvat? He pretty much always gets over 20 goals a season, and sometimes 30. Looking at his stats though, he is consistently good at faceoffs every season; he's never been under 50%. That's pretty nice, and especially with Staal's retirement not being too far away.

If the Islanders are looking to rebuild, you'd think Horvat would be one of the first they'd trade since he is 29 and turns 30 this April, and is obviously a skilled/valuable player for a trade. Not Dobson who is 25, and maybe not even Barzal who is 27 going on 28 this May. However, I just saw that Horvat has a NTC, but if the Islanders want to rebuild, and Horvat wants to play for a contending team since he's about to turn 30, it makes sense he'd be okay playing for us.

Hadnt thought much about Horvat, but yeah.

I guess ranking wise?
Bennett
Barzal
Horvat

 

[htdoc]

I'm not sure that's correct unless it's a recentish change. The Kaprizov situation in 2020 was weird because of Covid bullshit, but Makar joined Colorado from UMass at a similar point and didn't play until the playoffs, still counted as the first year of his ELC.

Mea Culpa..

I was wrong. Thank you for correcting me. I was so utter convinced about that point that I didn’t fact check myself before posting. I could have sworn I had read that in the CBA and had discussed it on forums in the past.

I was also thinking that given his age, Nikishin only has to play one game to burn the year, but that the game had to be a regular season game not a combo of regular season and playoffs….

should have done a simple internet search before posting…. So whether or not RBA would let a rookie who hasn’t played a game before get in a playoff game to help burn his first contract year is the $64 billion dollar question now…. I think that is a selling point to finally get him over here is he can get to the bigger money faster by coming in time for playoffs if he can convince his team to terminate early… no guarantees we are still playing in the playoffs when his contract expires officially…

 

[User13452]

 

[Sigurd]

Hadnt thought much about Horvat, but yeah.

I guess ranking wise?
Bennett
Barzal
Horvat

Although I have a favorite among those players, I think it depends on what you value more regarding ranking them, but I don't think any of those three players would be anything less than good for our 2C.

Benett makes a high amount of hits, but has the lowest average amount of points of the three players.

Barzal is a right handed centerman, has the highest amount of points in a season among the three (he reached 80 points in two different seasons), and is the youngest of the three at 27 (by just 1 year younger than Benett), but makes the fewest hits of the three.

Horvat, to me, seems to be the most complete player since he puts up a good amount of points on average, is the only player out of the three to reach 30 goals (in three different seasons), has a respectable amount of hits in his career in any given season, and is very reliable for faceoffs since he's never been below 50% win rate while Barzal has never had a 50% or higher faceoff rate, and Benett, excluding two seasons, has always been in the 40s for his faceoffs win rate. However, Horvat is the oldest of the 3 players at 29 (nearly 30 next month). Again, I think when Staal retires, getting someone that's highly skilled in faceoffs is gonna be more important, and Horvat is locked in a contract for essentially the rest of his career; which would give us that long term reliability in the dot.

I'd pick Horvat if had to personally choose between the three players. Again, he seems like he's the most complete player, and 29/30 years old next month isn't that bad. Also, isn't Horvat good defensively too? His respectable amount of blocked shots also support what I thought was the case. You'd think he would be good defensively playing for the Islanders. For someone that doesn't follow the Islanders, he seems like a Brind'Amour type of player IMO.

For stats that include hits (since NHL.com doesn't include hits for some strange reason):

Bo Horvat Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Bo Horvat. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Sam Bennett Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Sam Bennett. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Mathew Barzal Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Mathew Barzal. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

For all we know, Horvat, and or Barzal might not even be made available by the Islanders this summer though.

 

[Stanky and Janky]

Pretty shitty digging that didn't come up with many actual answers.

 

[Chrispy]

I have absolutely no clue how Rod would approach Nikishin if we get him over here in the next month or so. I could easily see Rod playing the pay your dues game with him and making him the 7th man or 3rd pair, but I could also see Nikishin coming in and blowing everyone away and Rod immediately slotting him with Slavin while "demoting" Burns to 3rd pair. If the latter, and Nikishin proves to be everything we hope and expect from him, that could seriously be a game changer for this team in these playoffs and could have us contending with the Bolts, Panthers and top teams from the West. As much as Nikishin has been hyped up, I honestly do still think his immediate impact could shock a lot of people.

Why not both to start?

Slavin-Walker
Orlov/Ghost-Chatfield
Nikishin-Burns

Give Burns the mentorship role.