Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[A Star is Burns]

I don't mind those lines. You can certainly argue for spreading the wealth a little amongst the quaret of Jarvy, Aho, Necas, and Svech across two lines a little more evenly. I'm sure it will be done at times. If Koko can get himself to a 40-45 point two way guy and Roslovic can be the 45ish point guys he's been before, I think they will be an okay second line.

As long as the defense comes along and the goaltending is better and healthier than the first few months of last season, that forward group (maybe with a rookie added) will get the job done fine in the regular season and do a pretty reasonable job of playing Brindy hockey. Any postseason success would certainly depend on some combination of growth from a rookie or rookies, deadline acquisitions, and/or guys like Koko/Drury/Roslovic bouncing back or taking the next step.

And, or course, the lines at this point, especially when they have the groups distributed the way they do, mean pretty much nothing. But I could see these lines being used at times this season.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm not reading anything into PP2 on the 1st day of training

So you're saying we should overreact immediately?

 

[WreckingCrew]

There is for sure but even with a prospect there can’t expect a ton of offence from a 18-19 year old team is still gonna struggle to score imo

*rinse & repeat*

 

[User13452]

Think we pretty much know what lines 1,3 and 4 are gonna bring the big question mark is what that second line will look like and can KK finally step up and produce. Roslovic can be moved up and down the lineup but if KK isn’t producing then we are thin offensively down the middle.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Carrier leaving the first day is very funny

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I'm not reading anything into PP2 on the 1st day of training

From the looks of it, neither will opposing penalty kills during pre-scout throughout the season.

 

[Svechhammer]

I'm not reading anything into PP2 on the 1st day of training

Do you even F26, bro?

 

[bleedgreen]

I’ll say it again because it does bear repeating, Rod often does show you his intention with the lines from day one. Injuries or horrid performances may change the plan, and of course he throws them in the blender over the season but I’d bet a couple of bucks these are the lines and pp units he’s generally going with unless a kid breaks through. Which I’ve been on the fence about believing but we’ll see here in the next few weeks.

I don’t really find this lineup surprising other than the thought he may spread the top four onto two lines.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Necas got hot last Winter with Bunting and Drury. He can be the undisputed best player on a line on a good team.

Roslovic is a bridge to get them to the deadline, when there’s greater flexibility. He could even go in a deal as an expiring contract for a better on paper fit.

 

[chaz4hockey]

lol Harvard is now replaced by the money shirt:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836755522483015872

 

[moses malone 12]

Yeah, there's absolutely a spot on that second line for the taking by a prospect.

most interested in how KK and Carrier perform in camp and pre-season. Carrier to me can be an effective player for this team if he stays healthy. brings some menace and disruptiveness. not the menace level of Ferland but I think he can open some ice for Necas as an example. If KK looks slow and lost again, move Roso into 2C.

I have long advocated for Necas to move to 2C. its now or never. assume its not happening.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The prospects are likely together because we haven’t had a system for them and they are learning it. I don’t really think that excludes them from roster contention

 

[CandyCanes]

The guy has a history of injuries.

 

[raynman]

most interested in how KK and Carrier perform in camp and pre-season. Carrier to me can be an effective player for this team if he stays healthy. brings some menace and disruptiveness. not the menace level of Ferland but I think he can open some ice for Necas as an example. If KK looks slow and lost again, move Roso into 2C.

I have long advocated for Necas to move to 2C. its now or never. assume its not happening.

Carrier is already dead

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

*rinse & repeat*

Last 3 seasons, the Hurricanes have scored the 7th most goals in the NHL, just 1 goal behind Boston for 6th best. They've scored more than NYR, DAL, VAN, NJD, VGN, etc...

Have they been an elite goal scoring team? No. Have they "struggled to score goals"? Not really.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Last 3 seasons, the Hurricanes have scored the 7th most goals in the NHL, just 1 goal behind Boston for 6th best. They've scored more than NYR, DAL, VAN, NJD, VGN, etc...

Have they been an elite goal scoring team? No. Have they "struggled to score goals"? Not really.

Guess it depends on how it's defined...raw numbers, no...shooting %, yes...we're damn near the bottom at 9.7% over that time despite being one of the winningest teams. Granted the best teams are only about 2% higher (worst is only about 9.5%, don't have "premium" access to get the full data though). The coaching staff and analysts HAVE commented on our finishing though as well. Didn't we have a time this past season prior to TDL we went like 120 shots between goals?

 

[SlavinAway]

Guess it depends on how it's defined...raw numbers, no...shooting %, yes...we're damn near the bottom at 9.7% over that time despite being one of the winningest teams. Granted the best teams are only about 2% higher (worst is only about 9.5%, don't have "premium" access to get the full data though). The coaching staff and analysts HAVE commented on our finishing though as well. Didn't we have a time this past season prior to TDL we went like 120 shots between goals?

The question is is the low shooting % actually a problem or just a factor of our system of being high volume shooters?

I'd say it's a mix of both but when we rank highly in GF and winning % is it actually something to worry about?

 

[geehaad]

What does this guy expect? Sure, maybe one of the kids will get a look, but RBA is constructing PP lines based on who is likely to be on the opening night roster...like any sane person would. Presuming PP1 has the top line plus Necas, tell me who from this group is better suited to look at on Day 1 PP2 than those named:

Svechnikov - Aho - Jarvis
Roslovic - Kotkaniemi - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Carrier
Lemieux - Drury - Robinson - Jost

Not a lot of thought put into his disdain.

 

[Derailed75]

The question is is the low shooting % actually a problem or just a factor of our system of being high volume shooters?

I'd say it's a mix of both but when we rank highly in GF and winning % is it actually something to worry about?

And you don't win games on shooting percentage.

 

[Justicebork]

Drury to 2C by about October 15th

 

[Borsig]

LOL our PP2 is..... showing our lack of scoring talent

 

[hblueridgegal]

Feeling the pain...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Guess it depends on how it's defined...raw numbers, no...shooting %, yes...we're damn near the bottom at 9.7% over that time despite being one of the winningest teams. Granted the best teams are only about 2% higher (worst is only about 9.5%, don't have "premium" access to get the full data though). The coaching staff and analysts HAVE commented on our finishing though as well. Didn't we have a time this past season prior to TDL we went like 120 shots between goals?

There's no guessing on how it's defined. Goal scoring is simply the # of goals scored. There are various components that go into it. SH%, PP% , 5v5 scoring, High Danger vs. low danger, Possession, goals off the rush, goals by rebound, goals by defensemen, etc.. etc.. The fact of the matter is that goal scoring IS raw numbers and the Canes rank 7th over that stretch.

If a team scores 2 goals on 10 shots and their opponent scores 3 goals on 30 shots, we don't say the team with 2 goals was the better goal scoring team for that game.

Case in point, over the past 3 years 5v5, here are the top 10 teams in SH% and where they rank in goals scored 5v5:

STL: 9.48%; 10th; TOR: 9.35%; 1st; ARI: 9.34%; 25th; TBL: 9.23%; 11th;
VAN: 9.07%; 15th; DET: 8.95%; 24th; MIN: 8.04%; 16th; COL: 8.87%; 2nd
MTL: 8.78%; 27th; EDM: 8.7%; 3rd. Some correlation, but a lot of teams that don't correlate as well.

Case 2 in point: Over the past 10 years, OVI has scored 431 goals to lead all NHLrs by a wide margin. Over that stretch, for players > 500 games played, he is 44th in SH%, just 2 spots above Nino. He's a volume shooter and his SH% won't be at the top because of it, even though he's an elite goal scorer. Even in his best year, where he scored 65 goals, his SH% was only 27th best of the top 50 goal scorers for that season.

Canes are a volume shooting, possession team. By definition due to the style they play, their SH% is not going to be high compared to other teams that play a different style. Could they use more skill to put the puck in the net? Absolutely. Is it accurate to say they've "struggled to score goals?" no.

 

[chaz4hockey]

^^^^
It only takes an y/y uptick in Svetch Necas, Jarvy, KK’s production (I’m thinking at least 3 of 4 will hit) and our goal scoring should approach LY end of year capability with Guentzel.

D is more the question to be answered for me (plus PP)

 

[hblueridgegal]