Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[AhosDatsyukian]

I'm not that worried about this offseason. I know it's a large UFA class, but we know how this FO operates. They will creatively destruct parts of the roster in order to gradually incorporate guys like Morrow, Nikishin, and probably Nadeau and/or Unger Sorum in the coming years. How much our UFAs get paid IMO will depend on how we perform this postseason. I'm been quite steadfast on this, but I always thought that long-term extensions were on their way for both Jarvis and Necas. The Canes historically are willing to pay more early on RFAs to get value later on.

This offseason will put a dent in our blueline depth but otherwise won't have any negative impact. Orlov/Nikishin well set up to replace Skjei going forward and I'm very confident in keeping Chatty for a reasonable amount and comfortable relying on him/Morrow to fill Pesce's void to a degree.

 

[NotOpie]

JG in a friggin heartbeat lol but that ain't happening
Skjei if not for Nikishin I'd keep on that deal but with Boom waiting in the wings I say no
Pesce NOPE, but some team would give him that
Turbo nope and I don't see any team giving him even close to that
Chatty in a heartbeat, easy
Martinook, he's at 1.8 now I don't see him getting a 1mil raise here, could maybe get that elsewhere if we choose to let him go but I think he stays for around 2mil/yr at most, could see a 3 year deal though

TLDR: We'll resign Turbo, Chatty, and Marty for reasonable deals. The rest will test the market.

Brady Skjei is a 47 point, 13 goal scoring minute-munching defenseman whose game feels like it will age well. I think he easily gets $7+ million on whatever term contract he wants. I believe the "creative offers/negotiations" that we heard about a while back were short term, high money deals. If the FO isn't sure about Nikishin by now, then Skjei gets signed for a longer term (I'm guessing 5 years if it's us and forever if it's a big market team).

Let's be honest, Pesce isn't worth a contract where the AAV starts with a 6. Like it or not, he's somewhat injury prone and has proven to have very little offense in his quiver. That said, if he'll sign for 4 or 5 years, I could see the Canes offering him $5 million to $5.25 million per year. Otherwise he's gone.

As much as we might not like it, Turbo is easily worth $6+ million a year. He averages about 56 points a season and is coming off a 25 goal season (his best goal-scoring season in his career). He signed his current deal after coming off of the most points he's ever scored in his career. I also think his game will age well. I'd try to sign him for 5 years at around $6 million if he'd take it. If history is any guide, he's probably the most likely to take a hometown discount.

As much as we like Chatfield and he's played quite well in his role this season, I think that Seravalli is pretty close to what he'll get paid salary-wise. I think we may go a bit longer term (4 or 5 years) to get him at a lighter AAV. I could see 5 years at $2.3 million per. I don't believe a 22 point defenseman gets $3 million a year.

Jordan Martinook is a tough one. His last two seasons have been quite good compared to the rest of his career. Last season he also showed up big in the playoffs. I'd be hopeful that we could get him back for less money if we went out to 3 years. Regardless, I don't see him getting more than $2.25 million per year. The math just doesn't work.

That brings me to Jake Guentzel. I know this is blasphemous in some corners of Canes fandom, but I wouldn't agonize over re-signing him. I'd easily pay Turbo over Jake as I'd assume I'd be saving $2 million to $2.5 million per season. Jake isn't going to take a non-max term deal. Our salary structure won't be able to swallow his deal, even if we don't re-up Turbo and trade KK (or Necas). For the record, I don't think either of those trades make sense. In the end, I think we may move forward looking for hired guns at the TDL with little or no thought of giving them a new contract. But what do I know....

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

TLDR: We'll resign Turbo, Chatty, and Marty for reasonable deals. The rest will test the market.

Brady Skjei is a 47 point, 13 goal scoring minute-munching defenseman whose game feels like it will age well. I think he easily gets $7+ million on whatever term contract he wants. I believe the "creative offers/negotiations" that we heard about a while back were short term, high money deals. If the FO isn't sure about Nikishin by now, then Skjei gets signed for a longer term (I'm guessing 5 years if it's us and forever if it's a big market team).

Let's be honest, Pesce isn't worth a contract where the AAV starts with a 6. Like it or not, he's somewhat injury prone and has proven to have very little offense in his quiver. That said, if he'll sign for 4 or 5 years, I could see the Canes offering him $5 million to $5.25 million per year. Otherwise he's gone.

As much as we might not like it, Turbo is easily worth $6+ million a year. He averages about 56 points a season and is coming off a 25 goal season (his best goal-scoring season in his career). He signed his current deal after coming off of the most points he's ever scored in his career. I also think his game will age well. I'd try to sign him for 5 years at around $6 million if he'd take it. If history is any guide, he's probably the most likely to take a hometown discount.

As much as we like Chatfield and he's played quite well in his role this season, I think that Seravalli is pretty close to what he'll get paid salary-wise. I think we may go a bit longer term (4 or 5 years) to get him at a lighter AAV. I could see 5 years at $2.3 million per. I don't believe a 22 point defenseman gets $3 million a year.

Jordan Martinook is a tough one. His last two seasons have been quite good compared to the rest of his career. Last season he also showed up big in the playoffs. I'd be hopeful that we could get him back for less money if we went out to 3 years. Regardless, I don't see him getting more than $2.25 million per year. The math just doesn't work.

That brings me to Jake Guentzel. I know this is blasphemous in some corners of Canes fandom, but I wouldn't agonize over re-signing him. I'd easily pay Turbo over Jake as I'd assume I'd be saving $2 million to $2.5 million per season. Jake isn't going to take a non-max term deal. Our salary structure won't be able to swallow his deal, even if we don't re-up Turbo and trade KK (or Necas). For the record, I don't think either of those trades make sense. In the end, I think we may move forward looking for hired guns at the TDL with little or no thought of giving them a new contract. But what do I know....

I think that choosing Turbo or Guentzel will depend on if they keep one of Skjei or Pesce. I still think there's an underrated chance that Pesce stays. Defensively-elite RHD are not easy to find or replace even though Chatfield has done an admirable job.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Turbo is likely gone.

We are going to have to get creative to maintain depth and cap compliance, if we are in fact trying to keep all three of Jarvis, Necas, and Guentzel. We will need to subtract one of KK or Kuzy and likely have to pay our 4th line wingers league minimum (assuming the other other of KK or Kuzy are the 4c).

We likely extend out a martinook offer to lower the cap hit, like Staal.

 

[SEALBound]

Looking at next year, Drury might be an odd man out. Would you be willing to trade Drury to the Penguins for cond 1st / 2nd back?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Looking at next year, Drury might be an odd man out. Would you be willing to trade Drury to the Penguins for cond 1st / 2nd back?

Nah, Drury is likely safe and is a good bridge contract candidate. With the exception of Nedeljkovic, the Canes historically tend to hold quite tightly onto their 25-and-under guys who successfully make it to the NHL.

 

[Borsig]

Looking at next year, Drury might be an odd man out. Would you be willing to trade Drury to the Penguins for cond 1st / 2nd back?

nah

You about KK for a 1st and second?

 

[SEALBound]

nah

You about KK for a 1st and second?

How about Drury and KK for the 1st?

 

[DaveG]

The statement about Necas may also be a way of preemptively telling Montreal or someone similar to f*** off with any potential offer sheet.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I personally think that the Canes are likely to sign two of our UFAs. To me, the choice will either be Guentzel/Chatfield or Teravainen/Pesce, and it will greatly depend on how they perform in the playoffs. The better they do, the more likely that Carolina just treats Guentzel as an own-rental rather than a must-sign.

Also, maybe this is an unpopular position here, but as much as Martinook has become a valuable piece to our forecheck and leadership, he's the definition of a player that bad teams overpay in UFA. The Canes should be just fine with him getting his payday elsewhere and having someone like KK take over what he provided.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Nah, Drury is likely safe and is a good bridge contract candidate. With the exception of Nedeljkovic, the Canes historically tend to hold quite tightly onto their 25-and-under guys who successfully make it to the NHL.

And Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie. Granted, Geekie was expansion draft. Point being is that Carolina will move a 25 and under guy that made his way to the NHL if they feel the move will make the team better, and the player isn’t viewed as a core player, and/or the player wants more money than what the Canes value him at.

I do think they’ll hold on to Drury, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t.

 

[bleedgreen]

And Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie. Granted, Geekie was expansion draft. Point being is that Carolina will move a 25 and under guy that made his way to the NHL if they feel the move will make the team better, and the player isn’t viewed as a core player, and/or the player wants more money than what the Canes value him at.

I do think they’ll hold on to Drury, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t.

Lindy, Hanifin….two top five picks who were regulars.

They have zero concern about trading young guys, maybe less than anyone in the league.

 

[Lempo]

But apart from Nedeljkovic, and Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie, what have the Romans ever done for us?

 

[Borsig]

UFA keeps need to be
Chats Skjei (prob not) and Turbo, Marty.

Of the 3 I see turbo taking the discount, and probably marty.

Guentzel is a maybe I guess? Lets see how he does but he's been vaporware in the PO sofar

 

[Identity404]

TLDR: We'll resign Turbo, Chatty, and Marty for reasonable deals. The rest will test the market.

Brady Skjei is a 47 point, 13 goal scoring minute-munching defenseman whose game feels like it will age well. I think he easily gets $7+ million on whatever term contract he wants. I believe the "creative offers/negotiations" that we heard about a while back were short term, high money deals. If the FO isn't sure about Nikishin by now, then Skjei gets signed for a longer term (I'm guessing 5 years if it's us and forever if it's a big market team).

Let's be honest, Pesce isn't worth a contract where the AAV starts with a 6. Like it or not, he's somewhat injury prone and has proven to have very little offense in his quiver. That said, if he'll sign for 4 or 5 years, I could see the Canes offering him $5 million to $5.25 million per year. Otherwise he's gone.

As much as we might not like it, Turbo is easily worth $6+ million a year. He averages about 56 points a season and is coming off a 25 goal season (his best goal-scoring season in his career). He signed his current deal after coming off of the most points he's ever scored in his career. I also think his game will age well. I'd try to sign him for 5 years at around $6 million if he'd take it. If history is any guide, he's probably the most likely to take a hometown discount.

As much as we like Chatfield and he's played quite well in his role this season, I think that Seravalli is pretty close to what he'll get paid salary-wise. I think we may go a bit longer term (4 or 5 years) to get him at a lighter AAV. I could see 5 years at $2.3 million per. I don't believe a 22 point defenseman gets $3 million a year.

Jordan Martinook is a tough one. His last two seasons have been quite good compared to the rest of his career. Last season he also showed up big in the playoffs. I'd be hopeful that we could get him back for less money if we went out to 3 years. Regardless, I don't see him getting more than $2.25 million per year. The math just doesn't work.

That brings me to Jake Guentzel. I know this is blasphemous in some corners of Canes fandom, but I wouldn't agonize over re-signing him. I'd easily pay Turbo over Jake as I'd assume I'd be saving $2 million to $2.5 million per season. Jake isn't going to take a non-max term deal. Our salary structure won't be able to swallow his deal, even if we don't re-up Turbo and trade KK (or Necas). For the record, I don't think either of those trades make sense. In the end, I think we may move forward looking for hired guns at the TDL with little or no thought of giving them a new contract. But what do I know....

Honestly given how stoic Turbo is I’m not sure if he wants to chase the $, or would take a hometown discount.

Marty seems the most likely to take a discount to me. I think he would re-sign at his current amount.

 

[Stickpucker]

Also, maybe this is an unpopular position here, but as much as Martinook has become a valuable piece to our forecheck and leadership, he's the definition of a player that bad teams overpay in UFA. The Canes should be just fine with him getting his payday elsewhere and having someone like KK take over what he prprovided.

Um what is kk going to take over from Martinook? Leadership? Playoff clutch scoring? Playing on Staals wing for less than 2m?

 

[Tryamw]

But apart from Nedeljkovic, and Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie, what have the Romans ever done for us?

Attacked Hoover Dam?

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

And Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie. Granted, Geekie was expansion draft. Point being is that Carolina will move a 25 and under guy that made his way to the NHL if they feel the move will make the team better, and the player isn’t viewed as a core player, and/or the player wants more money than what the Canes value him at.

I do think they’ll hold on to Drury, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t.

FWIW, and I'm not arguing just adding more info, every single one of those guys was drafted by the previous front office. (Ned was too)

Thus far all the current regime's draft picks who have made the team (like actually made it, not just a game or 2 like Pono) have stuck around, but obviously that could change and there are very few data points to read much into it (I believe just Svech, Jarvis, Koochie and Drury)

 

[bleedgreen]

FWIW, and I'm not arguing just adding more info, every single one of those guys was drafted by the previous front office. (Ned was too)

Thus far all the current regime's draft picks who have made the team (like actually made it, not just a game or 2 like Pono) have stuck around, but obviously that could change and there are very few data points to read much into it (I believe just Svech, Jarvis, Koochie and Drury)

This is fair, I think @Boom Boom Apathy and I both have noticed during this regime that they were pretty free wheeling with spending the assets left behind vs their own. Though they certainly made a splash in the other direction with the Guentzel trade. I think it’s fair to include fully developed prospects that haven’t quite made it yet but obviously are close.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

This is fair, I think @Boom Boom Apathy and I both have noticed during this regime that they were pretty free wheeling with spending the assets left behind vs their own. Though they certainly made a splash in the other direction with the Guentzel trade. I think it’s fair to include fully developed prospects that haven’t quite made it yet but obviously are close.

Sure but trading fully developed prospects and picks for a guy like Guentzel is different than trading a guy like Drury for a pick rather than keeping him in RFA, which is what the initial premise was about. I could see us moving Drury, but I agree with @TheReelChuckFletcher that we would not trade him this offseason for a conditional pick. That doesn't seem to be the front office's MO.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Well, keep in mind what “making it” meant under the past regime vs. the current one. In the past regime you had 1-2 slots every year just red carpeted and ready for whatever AHL guys had the best camp to come in and take. Suzuki, Rees, etc. all would’ve played games over the last several seasons under the past regime.

Under new management, the roster is stacked going into every training camp, and you’ve gotta prove you’re truly an NHL player to break into those spots.

So, by definition, the guys that do that are going to be a) fewer and b) better. And guys that are better are typically guys you’re less likely to give up on.

 

[chaz4hockey]

And Bean, and Foegele, and Lorentz and Fleury and Geekie. Granted, Geekie was expansion draft. Point being is that Carolina will move a 25 and under guy that made his way to the NHL if they feel the move will make the team better, and the player isn’t viewed as a core player, and/or the player wants more money than what the Canes value him at.

I do think they’ll hold on to Drury, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t.

Not losing sleep on any of them but perhaps Geekie. He had a breakout year with Boston and he reminds me of Fast but with better offense.

 

[Identity404]

Not losing sleep on any of them but perhaps Geekie. He had a breakout year with Boston and he reminds me of Fast but with better offense.

Nic Roy 2.0 IMO

 

[dogbazinho]

Not losing sleep on any of them but perhaps Geekie. He had a breakout year with Boston and he reminds me of Fast but with better offense.

From my flawed recollection Geekie, when he was with the Canes, seemed to have the knack to score big goals at key times. Limited quantity but limited time.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not losing sleep on any of them but perhaps Geekie. He had a breakout year with Boston and he reminds me of Fast but with better offense.

I didn’t lose sleep over any of them either. Just pointing them out as they are probably similar caliber players as Drury at the point in their careers where Jack is now. I wouldn’t lose any sleep if they traded Jack either, even though I like him as a player.