Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXII

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I’d give Panarin the same exact cap hit and term as Stone except all signing bonuses. Tell him to put his condo in Miami as his main residence and collect the signing bonus money before the season starts at which point he will be living in FL. No state income tax.

It doesn't work that way. The signing bonus is taxed the same way as the base salary. It's based on where you "work". Not where you live

 

[DanielBrassard]

Hall. It’s only natural

He's the only worthwhile UFA out there, if he reaches UFA at all.

 

[Bluenote13]

Conspiracy theories would be all over the main boards.

Same if we win the lottery.

"So the Rangers send out a letter saying they're rebuilding and all of a sudden they get a first overall pick, only one in their history...riiiiiiiight....."

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I would agree with the sentiment that Kovalchuk would be a Ranger if he was willing to do 2 years

Which he wasn't

 

[Edge]

If Kovalchuk accepted 2 years , he'd be a Ranger.
If Panarin accepts 6years, he'll be a Ranger.

My other concerns aside, those are pretty big ifs.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I would agree with the sentiment that Kovalchuk would be a Ranger if he was willing to do 2 years

Which he wasn't

I don't even know if this is true.

I agree that the Rangers would have taken him at 2 years but who knows if the feeling would be mutual.

 

[effen]

Kovy in 2018. Panarin in 2019.

Reporters hedging on what the Rangers will do, or how quickly they want to do it.

I wonder who the name will be this time next year.

Rangers make a great boogeyman. Reporters remain super bitter over signings from 20 years ago that didn't even work out.

Detroit did the same shit, had a bigger payroll (!!!), and actually won that way, but the Toronto media doesn't feel inferior to Detroit the way they do to New York. Kinda funny they still hold that grudge.

 

[kovazub94]

Boston was much, much further along in their build up than the Rangers were. You also have NO idea of how the "russians" who are coming over will perform.

Panarin is going to cost you 7 or 8 years at around $11m. The Rangers are NOT going to be competitors for at least the next several years. You are paying him at least $22m to "wait" until this team is competitive. From the age of 29, you will owe him 5 or 6 more years and $55 or $66m. For how many of those years will he be at "peak" performance level? Before long, you have an albatross of a contract on your hands, that is rife with NMC/NTC. Sound familiar?

Kreider is NOT going to cost that much. He is not going to need 8 years. He is a known quantity in the locker room and a leader. When he starts to get up in age, he can still play along the boards and continue to be a net front presence. Maybe it's better that one of the leaders of this team is a lifelong Ranger?

The in-between as you call it has resulted in 1 Cup in 77 years. Maybe it's time to give something else a try?

Exactly, another angle is that the front office and the owner be fine with $11m of sunken cost in y1 if they don't make the playoffs. Maybe even $22m for the first two years combined. But in y3 they surely would want to see results in terms of playoff wins. You can bet that as a result the organizational philosophy will change from being a seller to becoming a buyer, thus making draft picks, prospects and still developing roster players - a currency to bring more established players. I'm not saying it would a wrong approach but we don't know YET if it's the right one.

 

[effen]

Rangers make a great boogeyman. Reporters remain super bitter over signings from 20 years ago that didn't even work out.

Detroit did the same ****, had a bigger payroll (!!!), and actually won that way, but the Toronto media doesn't feel inferior to Detroit the way they do to New York. Kinda funny they still hold that grudge.

Imagine your based out of Toronto, which somehow has a massive inferiority complex in Canada itself despite being the big kid on the block.

Your league, your sport, your goddamn national identity is based... in New York.

Ouch.

 

[Edge]

Imagine your based out of Toronto, which somehow has a massive inferiority complex in Canada itself despite being the big kid on the block.

Your league, your sport, your goddamn national identity is based... in New York.

Ouch.

Yikes, the inferiority complex within the inferiority complex.

Kidding aside, New York always makes a great villain.

We’re the Gary Oldman of the sports world.

 

[RGY]

He's the only worthwhile UFA out there, if he reaches UFA at all.

I would be worries about his health holding up. He is a special player but has missed his share of time.

But for people using Shattenkirk as the comparison for a guy’s play deteriorating with age when looking at Panarin, i just dont think that is just. Shattenkirk was never an “elite” player. His defense was always pretty bad. I just dont see Panarin’s play dropping off over the next 3-4 years. There are plenty of elite players still playing well at 31-32 right now. Panarin’s body of work is also smaller in that it literally has endured less wear and tear because he got to the NHL late.

We will see what happens tho

 

[Tawnos]

I would be worries about his health holding up. He is a special player but has missed his share of time.

But for people using Shattenkirk as the comparison for a guy’s play deteriorating with age when looking at Panarin, i just dont think that is just. Shattenkirk was never an “elite” player. His defense was always pretty bad. I just dont see Panarin’s play dropping off over the next 3-4 years. There are plenty of elite players still playing well at 31-32 right now. Panarin’s body of work is also smaller in that it literally has endured less wear and tear because he got to the NHL late.

We will see what happens tho

Shattenkirk not being elite doesn’t matter. He deteriorated from what he was. So will Panarin. When? No one knows. Any speculation in any direction is pure bullshit. It’s common bullshit now, but it’s still bullshit. Besides, how little wear and tear he might have has nothing to do with when he will lose a little tick of reaction time, and then some more.

That’s why it’s a risk. Risk worth taking? Maybe.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Shattenkirk not being elite doesn’t matter. He deteriorated from what he was. So will Panarin. When? No one knows. Any speculation in any direction is pure bull****. It’s common bull**** now, but it’s still bull****. Besides, how little wear and tear he might have has nothing to do with when he will lose a little tick of reaction time, and then some more.

That’s why it’s a risk. Risk worth taking? Maybe.

In all fairness, who honestly saw Shatty already declining at 28? Shatty was considered one of the best offensive d-men in the league.

But overall, the point is you can't be afraid to sign great players in fear that they might decline right away.

 

[motopanekeku]

Yikes, the inferiority complex within the inferiority complex.

Kidding aside, New York always makes a great villain.

We’re the Gary Oldman of the sports world.

As a Mets fan I'd say we're more like the Gary Coleman of sports.

 

[Tawnos]

In all fairness, who honestly saw Shatty already declining at 28? Shatty was considered one of the best offensive d-men in the league.

But overall, the point is you can't be afraid to sign great players in fear that they might decline right away.

29. But honestly, there is the possibility that he’s still not recovered from the surgery. Wouldn’t be the first injury recovery I’ve seen take more than a year.

I don’t think any one is worried about Panarin declining right away. Every move the Rangers make now is about 2021 or 2022 and beyond. It’s a more open question than what he’ll be in 2019 or 2020. For some it’s worth the risk. For some it isn’t.

 

[Edge]

You know it’s funny, I don’t really see the parallels between Shattenkirk and Panarin from a decline standpoint, but I do see it from a mindset and approach standpoint.

The idea with Panarin is that he’s too good to pass up, and that there’s no one he is particularly blocking. And there’s logic in that mindset. I “get” where it’s coming from.

But I also think it changes the mindset. You don’t sign a guy like Panarin because you want to give your young centers the best support possible on the wings. I think that’s a nice thought, but the economies of the situation dictate otherwise.

You sign a guy like Panarin, and the contract he WILL command (don’t kid yourself otherwise) because you are prepared to go for it.

Not two years from now.

Not a year from now.

Now.

And that, in and of itself, will never have the best interest of young talent at heart.

Again, it’s a noble thought to believe we can have both, but it doesn’t work that way. As I’ve said before, you simply don’t give a guy 8 figures to ease the transition for young talent, or because you’re prepared to let them comfortably develop on their own.

Short of turning that statement into a Sean Bean Lord of the Rings meme, I really can’t emphasize it enough.

It’s not just the money. Or the years. Or the health. Or our depth on the wings. Or Panarin’s talent. Or his longevity. Or a short list of other things.

It’s about a mindset shift, and going down a path that will lead to a desire to build a support system around Panarin sooner rather than later. We can convince ourselves otherwise, but that signing inherently brings different expectations, and timelines, and interests.

And that, more than whether Panarin can score 30 goals past the age of 30, is the risk. Because if we screw this up now, and try to force this process, we run the risk of undoing everything we’ve accomplished over the past 12 months.

You start screwing with developmental timelines, you start increasing your risks of failure exponentially. Hell, you might even see a short term gain. But you will find you’ve sacrificed sustainability in order to achieve that gain.

 

[Trxjw]

Kovy in 2018. Panarin in 2019.

Reporters hedging on what the Rangers will do, or how quickly they want to do it.

I wonder who the name will be this time next year.

Taylor Hall. He can go up on the "we have to sign him because talents like him never hit the open market" board behind Tavares and Panarin.

 

[Bluenote13]

I find all this talk about shelf life of bread fascinating......

 

[Edge]

As a Mets fan I'd say we're more like the Gary Coleman of sports.

What you talkin ‘bout Musto?

 

[Trxjw]

I'll never be confused for a Shattenkirk fan, but I'll fully admit that a big part of his decline has been the knee injury. That being said, for me that's just more evidence in the "don't sign him" column when it comes to Panarin. Of course no player is guaranteed to stay healthy, but when you're paying a UFA premium for the guy to be a core player going forward there's a lot riding on him staying healthy through the duration of the contract.

If Panarin was being signed as a "final piece" then I could maybe get on board with it, but I don't really buy into the "we're going to need him when we're good again" angle.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I'll never be confused for a Shattenkirk fan, but I'll fully admit that a big part of his decline has been the knee injury. That being said, for me that's just more evidence in the "don't sign him" column when it comes to Panarin. Of course no player is guaranteed to stay healthy, but when you're paying a UFA premium for the guy to be a core player going forward there's a lot riding on him staying healthy through the duration of the contract.

If Panarin was being signed as a "final piece" then I could maybe get on board with it, but I don't really buy into the "we're going to need him when we're good again" angle.

If the Rangers were in the position of a team like Boston or Dallas I'd be the biggest Panarin pumper on this board. I just think it's a fool's errand to sign a guy like this when your team is this bad. Too much risk involved.

 

[Trxjw]

If the Rangers were in the position of a team like Boston or Dallas I'd be the biggest Panarin pumper on this board. I just think it's a fool's errand to sign a guy like this when your team is this bad. Too much risk involved.

Agreed. If we had a great core to add him to and we knew the playoffs were the goal next year, then sure, I'd be looking into signing him. We have no idea what this team will look like a year from now. I think maintaining flexibility is paramount until we get a better idea of what this team is going to look like going forward.

 

[Kovalev27]

Shatty looked very much as advertised last year until the cortisone shot wore off in late November.

That knee injury really set him back. I think he has a good year next year after a full summer of real training.

 

[SA16]

Taylor Hall. He can go up on the "we have to sign him because talents like him never hit the open market" board behind Tavares and Panarin.

You say this like it's a joke but here are the two highest paid FA for the last 10 years

2018 off season - Tavares/JVR
2017 - Shattenkirk/Radulov
2016 - Eriksson/Backes/Lucic/Okposo (all 6M)
2015 - Green (nobody else over 6M)
2014 - Stastny/Vanek
2013 - Ribeiro/Filppula
2012 - Suter/Parise
2011 - Richards/Wisniewski
2010 - nobody of note
2009 - Gaborik/Cammalleri

The history of FA is nothing like having guys like Hall/Panarin available. There was Tavares last year and then nobody even close to that level until 2012 with Suter/Parise (and that was in a different CBA where you could really drive down AAVs). You could argue Richards was on a similar level except he was 31 years old when he was a FA. And then Gaborik who was that level but had a very long injury roster.

From 2013-2017 the best available FA was I guess...Paul Stastny?

Tavares/Hall/Panarin are easily the top 3 FA of the last 10 years and there's a strong chance Hall doesn't even make it to FA. Well sorry, Erik Karlsson too.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Prediction - Florida trades for the rights to both Panarin and Bob and signs them both long term before they hit the open market: