Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX

[Ola]

They do have a lot of LHD at different stages, that's why it's important to get Rykov some games in this year either when they get back to NY (call him up against the Devils, what a troll that would be lol) to see how far he's progressed.

It's almost like The Hunger Games: not all will survive. We already know that Staal is at the end. Skjei is not a long term piece, and there's no way all three of Hajek/Lindgren/Rykov are here long term. All will be NHLers, but none look like game changers (don't think Rykov will become a first pair). Some will be used a sweeteners in deals, especially either during or after expansion. I think we're all a little surprised that Lindgren is "leading" the three in progression.

Robertson and Reunnenan are coming next year, and K. Miller as early as next year, but more than likely fall 2021. Miller has the tools to be a 1 LHD but he is very raw and needs to keep marinating. Tarmo is interesting as well, potential higher upside than the three kids in the NHL/AHL now.

Yup, and don’t get me wrong, there is certainly nothing wrong with having a boatload of LDs. BUT it comes at the expense of something else. And we just got very little elsewhere on the farm.

Of course it’s harder to find players at other positions. A big portion of all players are lefties and they don’t cut it on the right side in the NHL. Its simple math.

But it’s not impossible. Russia was really good in the WJC. They had what only TWO first round picks on their roster. How many of these guys did we pass on to draft a bunch of LDs?

Zamula was one of the better Ds at the entire tournament. Kid got legit talent and could become a star in the NHL. Philly just scoped him up as a UDFA... Imagine getting like a center that is the best at the WJC as a 19 y/o UDFA. So many teams are assigning a discount on LDs because their depth chart on the farm is stacked at that position. Good luck trying to get any kind of value from building up a huge stack at that position.

 

[Trxjw]

Trading Buchnevich for a pick is one thing when the pick is up and Zegras is on the board. Quite another when you're months out from knowing where that pick will land. I doubt the Rangers are looking to offload him for futures unless they have another deal in place to bring in a "now" piece for either those acquired futures, or some combination of their own.

My guess is he gets packaged with some other pieces for a LD over the summer. Maybe to Edmonton in a deal for Nurse who needs a raise.

 

[Edge]

Good stuff lately @Edge, but I respectfully got to disagree with this notion (although it’s hard to argue against the difficulty of turning ‘garbage into value’ wording of it).

We have basically not seeing any LD for any other type of position player type of trades. And when we do, they carry very little value. Like Lindgren and Rykov were really good bona fide NHL prospects. If Gorton has requested a pick instead I wonder what round they would have been in. 3rd round? 4th round?

So while Robertson is a really strong pick — I don’t think that he in a trade would carry more value than were he was picked.

Gorton has obviously had the approach that position do not matter, and has hence accumulated — a ton — of LDs. He took on Hajek, Rykov and Lindgren in the McD/Miller, Nash and Gabby trades. We have drafted so many LDs. In 2018 we drafted 40% LDs. The years before 28% and 33% respectively. Given that only 3 of 20 players on your roster are LDs, in other words 15%, that overrepresentation is pretty extreme.

If Gorton wanted to turnover Robertson today, I don’t think many teams would be interested. Would he carry more value than the pick would have had? I am just not sold on it, and I do think that he was a good pick. As an analogy, investing in a LD is kind of investing in a new car. It loses a lot of value the same second you drive it out from the shop.

It’s funny, I think there’s this belief out there that finding LDs are easy and that they have lesser value. And yet the Rangers are looking to upgrade the position, along with a bunch of other teams.

At the end of the day, I’m not sure the deviation in value for a LD compared to another position going to be as dramatic as this board thinks. Instead, I think the value or lack thereof will come down to development. Will they get that from those guys? Remains to be seen. But the position is less of a concern for me than it might be for others.

From a market standpoint, I don’t think we actually know what the value of those names are. I think we’re speculating because we “assume” they don’t carry value. But even then, the value of the players you mentioned is driven less by the fact that they play LD, so much as that most of those names don’t project as top pair defenseman, or haven’t established their full reputation yet.

Whether they play LD or center, there’s very few guys taken in the second or third rounds of the 2018 or 2019 drafts that are going to return higher value than the pick with which they were chosen. Not unless they are phenoms, in which case, once again, nobody would really care if they were a LD. Thats typically why non blue chip prospects are including as components of deals, rather than traded outright for a pick or another prospect.

 

[Fitzy]

Trade Buchnevich AND Kreider and what little secondary scoring this roster had disappears entirely.

We can't move him until the kid forwards show a little more.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Trade kreider- avoid that big late 20’s deal that always ends up an albatross after 30-31 yrs old. He’s a 50 point guy. Is he worth 6/6 contract with a NTC ?

Trade fast- clear some space and again, avoid a 3 yr deal for a guy whos been a Swiss Army knife for us but who doesn’t move the needle much.

Trade georgie. It’s shestyorkin time. Split time with hank while playing as well as georgie did and prob much better than a 38 yr old hanky. Some one will over pay for him. what’s he worth ?

trade skjei. I’ve seen enough. He dumb. Its not so much he can’t play it’s just he can’t play top pair matchup mins with his questionable decision making. We need an upgrade to the LD

 

[Trxjw]

Trade Buchnevich AND Kreider and what little secondary scoring this roster had disappears entirely.

We can't move him until the kid forwards show a little more.

Well I don't expect Buchnevich to be traded until the off season. I'm also expecting some sort of secondary player back in the Kreider trade like Heinen or Jost. Someone who has the potential to replace what we're getting out of Buchnevich now.

I also think that if the Rangers do something like Buchnevich++ for a LD upgrade, that means they're probably moving Skjei for a forward.

Again, it's about how all of the moves line up. Not how they look individually.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Everyone brings up Buch as a cost controlled asset. It's that way for one more year. He's going to get paid somewhere between $5-6 million. Is he worth that much? To me the answer is no. Too inconsistent and he isn't really a goal scorer. He's hit 20 once, he's on pace for like 15-16. He's not physical enough. I'm not saying he should go out there and hit everything but he needs to play consistently to how he did last night all of the time to be successful. Work hard, fight for the puck, not be a third wheel. I don't think it's in his DNA.

He's not a bad player but I see hm being traded 2-3 times in his career and maybe end up as a depth piece on a Cup team.

Put it this way, I'll take my chances with Baron eventually putting up similar numbers if he's a hard working guy who battles and plays D.

 

[Kocur Dill]

I don’t see the logic in trading Buch. He’s 24. He’s been a 40+ point player his last 3 seasons. He’s not a finished product and will continue improving.

What are you guys hoping we get for him? A younger player that might produce like him one day...?

I brought up Butch for Debrusk on the main boards. Got poo'ed on by one guy, but I dont believe anyone else followed up.

Lateral hockey trade, rw for lw. Both players produce about the same. Gives us a cushion on LW if we trade Kreider and Debrusk is a little more involved off the puck than Butch.

The one poster didn't want to address their need of a RW by giving up a LW, it wasn't a value issue.

 

[broadwayblue]

Trade kreider- avoid that big late 20’s deal that always ends up an albatross after 30-31 yrs old. He’s a 50 point guy. Is he worth 6/6 contract with a NTC ?

Trade fast- clear some space and again, avoid a 3 yr deal for a guy whos been a Swiss Army knife for us but who doesn’t move the needle much.

Trade georgie. It’s shestyorkin time. Split time with hank while playing as well as georgie did and prob much better than a 38 yr old hanky. Some one will over pay for him. what’s he worth ?

trade skjei. I’ve seen enough. He dumb. Its not so much he can’t play it’s just he can’t play top pair matchup mins with his questionable decision making. We need an upgrade to the LD

I think I agree with everything you wrote. Certainly the first three.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Rangers have a unique opportunity to have 3 40+ point d-men in Trouba, ADA and Fox. Specifically the latter two who may be more than that annually. That’s a unique amount of offense to come from a d-corps.

I’d be less concerned moving a 40 point forward in Buch and a 50 point winger in Kreider if it meant better long term health for the organization or a better fit long term. Especially given what I wrote above and the fact that the team should have 3 or 4 major offensive pieces already set in Panarin, Zib, Chytil and Kaako

 

[Avery16]

I brought up Butch for Debrusk on the main boards. Got poo'ed on by one guy, but I dont believe anyone else followed up.

Lateral hockey trade, rw for lw. Both players produce about the same. Gives us a cushion on LW if we trade Kreider and Debrusk is a little more involved off the puck than Butch.

The one poster didn't want to address their need of a RW by giving up a LW, it wasn't a value issue.

Look, whatever floats your boat. But this isn't a fantasy hockey league. Whether or not a trade proposal passes muster on a thread has zero implication on whether or not it could or how likely it is to happen.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I wonder if Tampa would be interested in sending Nolan Foote to us for something they might need, he has a rocket for a shot and would be nice to have on the right side pp.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Wonder if Montreal can use skjei?

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Problem with Skjei is the term. If it was 1-2 more years they can probably get away with it or retain but four more at that price is going to be rough for someone who has the "baggage" that he does now. Will have to take back a similar contract.

Two recent examples of the Rangers swapping a headache for headache that worked out well were Mara for Ward, and later to a lesser extent Brashear for Todd White. Those deals were much more minor though for older players with less term.

I don't think anyone here ever thought Skjei could or would become McD. Brett Hedican was an accurate description.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Problem with Skjei is the term. If it was 1-2 more years they can probably get away with it or retain but four more at that price is going to be rough for someone who has the "baggage" that he does now. Will have to take back a similar contract.

Two recent examples of the Rangers swapping a headache for headache that worked out well were Mara for Ward, and later to a lesser extent Brashear for Todd White. Those deals were much more minor though for older players with less term.

I don't think anyone here ever thought Skjei could or would become McD. Brett Hedican was an accurate description.

Bret Hedican was so good and underrated. Brady Skjei has a ways to go to reach that status. He is like Tom Poti in the sense that Skjei always leaves you wanting more.

 

[Avery16]

Problem with Skjei is the term. If it was 1-2 more years they can probably get away with it or retain but four more at that price is going to be rough for someone who has the "baggage" that he does now. Will have to take back a similar contract.

Two recent examples of the Rangers swapping a headache for headache that worked out well were Mara for Ward, and later to a lesser extent Brashear for Todd White. Those deals were much more minor though for older players with less term.

I don't think anyone here ever thought Skjei could or would become McD. Brett Hedican was an accurate description.

We'll be just fine moving all of Skjei's term. There are a few teams out there that would overpay to get a player of his talent and youth locked down at the number he's at.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Bret Hedican was so good and underrated. Brady Skjei has a ways to go to reach that status. He is like Tom Poti in the sense that Skjei always leaves you wanting more.

Skjei was really good his rookie year. Then he started thinking he was an offensive dynamo.

 

[Good Intentions]

Bret Hedican was so good and underrated. Brady Skjei has a ways to go to reach that status. He is like Tom Poti in the sense that Skjei always leaves you wanting more.

That's actually exactly right.

 

[Avery16]

Instead of trading up for Gropp, we should've stayed where we were and drafted Julius Nattinen. A RHS Finnish C with some size, played with Lemieux and Day in the OHL.

His contract was terminated by the Ducks last season, so he is a UFA.

 

[Tawnos]

Instead of trading up for Gropp, we should've stayed where we were and drafted Julius Nattinen. A RHS Finnish C with some size, played with Lemieux and Day in the OHL.

His contract was terminated by the Ducks last season, so he is a UFA.

Yeah, a guy who couldn't make it in the NHL would've been a much better choice than a guy who couldn't make it in the NHL.

 

[Avery16]

Yeah, a guy who couldn't make it in the NHL would've been a much better choice than a guy who couldn't make it in the NHL.

No, you're right. Etem and Gropp are much better than Hagelin and this kid tearing up the Liiga.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Just remember, the scouts and mentality have been altered since 2017. JD will continue to bring people with his vision in. CLB has been pretty good at drafting.

 

[MrPodz]

I think we trade georgiev, shesterkin is ready and wall is literally destroying it in college hockey. It avoids a raise, and georgiev can be packaged with kreider for a really good defenseman (number 1, with a 2021 second attached?) Sjei can be moved for a winger and kakko will be ready for 2nd line next year. I think it works, especially if you fire ruff

 

[MrPodz]

Not nylander for skjei, but we have a lot to move around that we can and it allows gorton to be creative. Lundkvist will be ready next year, keane is ready this year, i think it works and that means deangelo can be traded, i like him but his contract ask will be too high and hes good, no question, if the right deal comes along, gorton will shoot. I honestly think with better d we make the playoffs next year.

 

[Ola]

It’s funny, I think there’s this belief out there that finding LDs are easy and that they have lesser value. And yet the Rangers are looking to upgrade the position, along with a bunch of other teams.

At the end of the day, I’m not sure the deviation in value for a LD compared to another position going to be as dramatic as this board thinks. Instead, I think the value or lack thereof will come down to development. Will they get that from those guys? Remains to be seen. But the position is less of a concern for me than it might be for others.

From a market standpoint, I don’t think we actually know what the value of those names are. I think we’re speculating because we “assume” they don’t carry value. But even then, the value of the players you mentioned is driven less by the fact that they play LD, so much as that most of those names don’t project as top pair defenseman, or haven’t established their full reputation yet.

Whether they play LD or center, there’s very few guys taken in the second or third rounds of the 2018 or 2019 drafts that are going to return higher value than the pick with which they were chosen. Not unless they are phenoms, in which case, once again, nobody would really care if they were a LD. Thats typically why non blue chip prospects are including as components of deals, rather than traded outright for a pick or another prospect.

Is it easier to find LDs than RDs or centers or whatever? Fact: Yes.

We all know that coaches prefer righties one the right and lefties on the left. We line up 3:3, and that is what most teams aim for.

This is however not the case outside the NHL. Nor was it really the case to the same extent in the NHL 20 years ago. It’s because he NHL game is so extremely fast that it is so hard (and dangerous) to play on the wrong side. You have to turn up with your back to the ice when you fetch a puck in the corner on the wrong side.

So isn’t the supply of left shooting players the same as right shooting players? Nope, this is the problem. In hockey it’s not 50/50 between lefties and righties. In Europe only 10% shoot from the right side. In Canada only 30%. Source: Fatta right – bli målkung

As a consequence, if you watch a junior team in Europe, you will on average have more than 5 LDs and less than 1 RD to chose from. So is it easier to find a good LD than a good RD? Yes! A lot easier.