Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX (WTF are we going to do this Off-Season edition)

[haohmaru]

AFP's new end of season contract projections are out and there are some intriguing happenings that I'll list out:

Bennett - 6 years @ $6.67m
Cuylle - 3 years @ $3.5m
Donato - 3 years @ $4.2m
Edstrom - 1 year @ $1.07m
Gavrikov - 7 ears @ $7.6m
Gourde - 2 years @ $3.8m
Zac Jones - 2 years @ $1.227m
Mangiapane - 2 years @ $3.8m
Ryan McLeod - 3 years @ $4.835m
Orlov - 3 years @ $5.8m
Peterka - 7 ears @ $7.8m
Provorov - 6 years @ $7m
Rossi - 7 years @ $7.4m

Notably missing: KAM

Really curious where that's going to end up.

 

[NYR Viper]

Notably missing: KAM

Really curious where that's going to end up.

Sorry just missed him

Long Term
6 years @ $6m

Short Term
1 year @ $4.65m

I'd take that long term deal and try to push it to 7 years honestly

 

[haohmaru]

Sorry just missed him

Long Term
6 years @ $6m

Short Term
1 year @ $4.65m

I'd take that long term deal and try to push it to 7 years honestly

He's a puzzle that's for sure. I wish he would've taken a (even a little one) step forward last year. Hard to gauge whether it's good to move him (depending on return) or predict that he will take that step and lock him up.

Conundrum.

 

[Bourque]

I like to eliminate who I don't want in the NYR draft, first. They are any blood relative of: Hugh Jessiman, Bobby Sanguinetti, Ivan Baranka, Nigel Dawes, A. Lafreniere, K. Kakko, V. Kravtsov, & L. Andersson.

 

[NYR Viper]

I like to eliminate who I don't want in the NYR draft, first. They are any blood relative of: Hugh Jessiman, Bobby Sanguinetti, Ivan Baranka, Nigel Dawes, A. Lafreniere, K. Kakko, V. Kravtsov, & L. Andersson.

This post is missing Dylan McIlrath

 

[NYR Viper]

He's a puzzle that's for sure. I wish he would've taken a (even a little one) step forward last year. Hard to gauge whether it's good to move him (depending on return) or predict that he will take that step and lock him up.

Conundrum.

$6m, to me, is right at that #3 d-man pay check and as the cap rises, it will slide back to #4. I'm comfortable, warts and all, with Miller in that role for that money. I think anyone else the team can acquire for that role (UFA) likely either costs more and/or has warts of their own.

Just as an example, Orlov is slated to make ~$5.8m for 3 years. He has some warts and is older (34). I'd say he and Miller are comparable with Miller having more upside.

 

[Kendo]

I mean this is an incredibly stupid metric to use lol. So I guess Jack Hughes is a 3c by this metric

Jesus Christ. Feel free to use FO/GP instead. Hughes passes Haula in that case.

Hughes also has literally twice the offense as Bennett. Even if he did take fewer FO, that wouldn't make him a 3C, it would make him more of a W like Stutzle (who didn't qualify to be in that top 48 since he's more of a CINO).

"I'm not stupid, you're stupid." Compelling stuff.

 

[kovazub94]

I'll go on record saying I would trade Mika to his destination of choice for a 7th rounder if you could guarantee Sam Bennett at 8.5x4. Mika's hit for one fewer year. He would fit so well that even Laf & Cuylle would outproduce him all 4 years! He's the rug that pulls the room together in FLA's top 6. That was supposed to be 20+93 for us, but that went sideways.

The term is the issue. Sam's a "sick 6th F." Laf is getting paid less than what Bennett's gonna get and for likely the same term. Wouldn't an 8x7 deal be an albatross? We have a better 2C in Trocheck on a great deal anyway.

10 - 8 - 13
50 - 16 - Bennett

If Mika and Kreids are both gone, I could see it. 6th Guy. Term might be scary, but he would slide right back to 3C while our Wings develop over time. Not impossible.

This is a trick position. Bennett is not signing for 4 years. He's getting either 7 or (likely) 8-year deal.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Alright so I looked back and here are the numbers. Trochek signed for what amounted to 6.8182% of the cap going in to his first season. The salary cap was $82.5m. If Bennett were to sign for the same cap percentage of this years upcoming cap he would be at $6.51m.

AFP has him projected to make $6.67m. I'm beginning to warm to this idea.

Trocheck is/was a better player when he signed though. Trocheck didn't have a good year, but his 59 points this past season would have been Bennett's career high. In fact Bennett's 51 points this year (which is his career best) is a number Trocheck has cleared or matched 7 times in his career. I'm not tossing shade on Bennett, but he's not on the same level as Trocheck.

I know AFP has generally been pretty accurate, but players like Bennett are the toughest to project because nasty players will generally get paid more than anyone thinks/predicts even if they're terrible players. Bennett is actually good so that number is going to start with a 7 at the very least especially after what looks to be another strong playoff run (unless he stays in Florida, he may give them a "discount.")

For the Rangers? I don't know that he really makes sense unless you're able to move one of Zibanejad or Panarin. Even then, I'm not sure where he fits into the lineup even if you do move one of those guys. He isn't taking one of the top 2 C spots and you could play him as a top 6 wing (he'd look good next to both Trocheck and Miller), but is that really the best allocation of those dollars/usage of this player?

 

[Kendo]

This is a trick position. Bennett is not signing for 4 years. He's getting either 7 or (likely) 8-year deal.

Not a trick question. It's literally saying "at a shorter term than he's obviously gonna get, I'd do it." I'm not interested at the term that you are absolutely correct that he's gonna get.

 

[Bourque]

LaffyTaffy13 said:
I mean this is an incredibly stupid metric to use lol. So, I guess Jack Hughes is a 3c by this metric

I love it when guys think +/- is an individual defensive stat. It measures and compares how many goals are scored by each team when lines are on the ice. It's obviously a team offensive stat.

 

[kovazub94]

Alright so I looked back and here are the numbers. Trochek signed for what amounted to 6.8182% of the cap going in to his first season. The salary cap was $82.5m. If Bennett were to sign for the same cap percentage of this years upcoming cap he would be at $6.51m.

AFP has him projected to make $6.67m. I'm beginning to warm to this idea.

I don't think it's apples to apples. Trocheck was signed when there was no clear direction to cap going up by 20% within 3 years. I'm weary of paying him over $8m but I think he's set to make at least $7.5 and from there it's not a big stretch to see someone offering in the $8m range.

 

[kovazub94]

Not a trick question. It's literally saying "at a shorter term than he's obviously gonna get, I'd do it." I'm not interested at the term that you are absolutely correct that he's gonna get.

You're saying you're supporting position that doesn't exist. I could say I support getting McDavid for 2nd. Good for me, I guess.

 

[bleedblue94]

Matthews since 2019/20

45 points in 45 playoff games

Panarin since 2019/20

35 points in 46 games.

Hilarious that Matthews is getting murdered meanwhile people want to throw Panarin a parade because he didn't completely suck last year.

I think most people are disappointed with both players. Matthews has been invisible this playoffs again and he is unable to create his own offense (if marner leaves it will be eye opening to see what happens to Matthews). For all the shit nylander takes he's been the most impactful of that group this postseason, realistically they have a core 5 now and knies is the one driving the bus on that team. Kid is a beast.

 

[bleedblue94]

Give me 48 centers youd take over sam bennett. Theres been absurd takes on this board but trying to argue sam bennett isnt a 2C is beyond absurd

Don't waste your energy. People on this board think more points automatically means you're a better player and then also complain when the players on the ranger that get more points but are not good 200' players (aka are inferior Players). It's ridiculous.

 

[SA16]

I don't think it's apples to apples. Trocheck was signed when there was no clear direction to cap going up by 20% within 3 years. I'm weary of paying him over $8m but I think he's set to make at least $7.5 and from there it's not a big stretch to see someone offering in the $8m range.

Additionally, I'm not sure how accurate the model will be with the cap expected to rise tremendously the next few years after being relatively stagnant since 2018. You can say it's just basing off cap hit percentage but that's not really the right way to do it because with more available cap space for each team and only FAs to sign it's likely current UFAs get a higher cap hit percentage than they would have in previous years. Not to mention the players also know the projection is for the cap to go from 95M, to 104M, to 115M so if teams don't give them what they want they can certainly take a 1-2 year deal and then look to cash in when the cap is higher. A 6.5% cap hit over the next 3 years would be 6.2M, 6.8M, 7.5M. Is a player going to shortchange himself because of comparable from a different period when he knows that?

 

[bleedblue94]

Not a trick question. It's literally saying "at a shorter term than he's obviously gonna get, I'd do it." I'm not interested at the term that you are absolutely correct that he's gonna get.

Honestly who cares about the term in 2025, certainly not Drury, and most teams won't be either at the rate the cap is projected to rise. It's all about percentage of cap in the short term. Even if you sign Bennet for 7 or 8m to be a 2c today that may very well be the going rate for a top 3c in 4 or 5 years anyways as the cap rises. People need to move on from the slow growth years and realize that a guys like kaprizov or marner might sign bigger contracts than McDavid or even MacKinnon currently have. The market is about to completely change and a lot of fans are going to think their team is winning with short term contracts when in reality short term is going to become what most players want so they can renegotiate every 3 years as the cap grows and they can sign for the same percent of that growing cap.

 

[bleedblue94]

Additionally, I'm not sure how accurate the model will be with the cap expected to rise tremendously the next few years after being relatively stagnant since 2018. You can say it's just basing off cap hit percentage but that's not really the right way to do it because with more available cap space for each team and only FAs to sign it's likely current UFAs get a higher cap hit percentage than they would have in previous years. Not to mention the players also know the projection is for the cap to go from 95M, to 104M, to 115M so if teams don't give them what they want they can certainly take a 1-2 year deal and then look to cash in when the cap is higher. A 6.5% cap hit over the next 3 years would be 6.2M, 6.8M, 7.5M. Is a player going to shortchange himself because of comparable from a different period when he knows that?

That higher cap hit isn't just going to ufas. Rfas are going to continue changing the system like they did during covid. There will also be a bunch of teams that can't afford to spend to the cap ceiling or other teams that save some space for next year's UFA crop

 

[bernmeister]

this is another friggin moron who can kiss my ass

3 Rangers who should not be on the roster next season

Coming off their most disappointing season in over a decade, the New York Rangers are looking to recompose themselves and once again contend for the Stanley Cup

bluelinestation.com

 

[SA16]

That higher cap hit isn't just going to ufas. Rfas are going to continue changing the system like they did during covid. There will also be a bunch of teams that can't afford to spend to the cap ceiling or other teams that save some space for next year's UFA crop

That is why I initially said FAs and not UFAs. More money, in terms of cap percent, will be going to the overall FA pool this year than it has in the previous years.

To give an example. Let's just say 25% of all salary comes off the book each year.

In 22-23 the cap was 82.5M. Removing 25% would leave ~62M cap used per team. In 23-24 the cap hit was 83.5M. Teams would have had 21.5M available (25.6% of remaining cap)

In 24-25 the cap was 88M. Removing 25% would leave ~66M cap user per team. In 25-26 the cap hit will be 95M. Teams would have 29M available (30.5%)

So a direct cap hit comparison between the years is not applicable.

 

[Kendo]

You're saying you're supporting position that doesn't exist. I could say I support getting McDavid for 2nd. Good for me, I guess.

"That's a good burger, but it's not $15 good."

"You wanna buy a whole pizza for $1?" No. I just would pay $10-$12 for that burger and will shop elsewhere if the price is $15.

 

[NYR Viper]

Trocheck is/was a better player when he signed though. Trocheck didn't have a good year, but his 59 points this past season would have been Bennett's career high. In fact Bennett's 51 points this year (which is his career best) is a number Trocheck has cleared or matched 7 times in his career. I'm not tossing shade on Bennett, but he's not on the same level as Trocheck.

I know AFP has generally been pretty accurate, but players like Bennett are the toughest to project because nasty players will generally get paid more than anyone thinks/predicts even if they're terrible players. Bennett is actually good so that number is going to start with a 7 at the very least especially after what looks to be another strong playoff run (unless he stays in Florida, he may give them a "discount.")

For the Rangers? I don't know that he really makes sense unless you're able to move one of Zibanejad or Panarin. Even then, I'm not sure where he fits into the lineup even if you do move one of those guys. He isn't taking one of the top 2 C spots and you could play him as a top 6 wing (he'd look good next to both Trocheck and Miller), but is that really the best allocation of those dollars/usage of this player?

I don't completely disagree with you but if we look at the 3 years prior to reaching UFA

Trochek
62 games - 38 p, 11g, 101 hits, 52.2% FO
47 games - 43 points, 17g, 107 hits, 56% FO
81 games, 51 points, 21g, 185 hits, 54.6% FO



Bennett
63 games, 40 points, 16g, 150 hits, 47% FO
69 games, 41 points, 20g, 173 hits, 45.5% FO
76 games, 51 points, 25g, 145 hits, 46.2% FO

Arguably, the 3-years leading up to UFA aren't THAT dissimilar.

 

[TGWL]

Watched an interview with Craig Hodges (NBA). He said Michael Jordan never (not 1 single time) allowed anyone to beat him in suicide drills (running) in practice in all their years. I can't imagine any Rangers player being that hardworking in practices and that determined to win.

Can't lose a drill in practice if you don't show up.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

The Rangers don’t have the money to sign Bennett so wasting energy talking about him seems dumb lol

 

[NickyFotiu]

The Rangers don’t have the money to sign Bennett so wasting energy talking about him seems dumb lol

Call me crazy but my focus would remain on making sure we have money for McDavid becoming a UFA. If we are going to make a big move lets swing for the fences.