Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX (WTF are we going to do this Off-Season edition)

[kovazub94]

let’s see
Barkov
Ekblad
Lundell
Seems like they filled out 3 big needs with the draft/rebuild.

They also bought real low on a few players, who were high draft picks but under performed.
Reinhart, Bennett are perfect examples. Both high firsts who ended up under performing, and then being key members of a cup team.


Let’s look at Tampa.
Point
Stamkos
Kucherov
Cirelli
Hedman


All drafted. Centers and defense.

Smart drafting and bottoming out are not the same.

 

[SA16]

In any given year, sure.

After 30 years you kinda have to start aiming for winning a Cup, not just being "good enough to get in the playoffs and we'll see what happens," -- and the continued failure is in fact failure.

The Oilers opened the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at 6/1. That implies something around an 11-12% chance to win the cup. It's not 14.3% because there is vig. Let's say 12%.

If the Oilers were the favorite, with those odds, every year for five consecutive years (which is highly unlikely) they would be 47% to win at least one Stanley Cup in that period.

You are vastly underestimating just how likely it is for a team to win. Even if you are the best team in the league you are nowhere close to being a guarantee to win anything in your window.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I swear to christ if they decide to run it back with Sully being the only change, i'm finding a different team to support

 

[haohmaru]

Panarin's existence did have an impact on Laf and Kakko though.

I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that they would have been pretty bad with out him in 2019-20. He pretty much single handedly kept them afloat until the new year when Fox took a quantum leap and then Zibanejad got insanely hot. It's been my biggest sore spot with Quinn since he did it, but there was no reason for Kakko to have been taken off of the top PP. It didn't get hot just because Strome was on it, it got hot because Zibanejad started to score on 1 out of every 3 shots he took. That was the one area where Kakko was pretty decent in his rookie season (which was a struggle otherwise) and thats one area where he should have continued to be used but he got taken off in december the second it cooled down a bit.

But no, the illusion of a playoff push got in the way and we got what we got. It also was likely the catalyst to Kreider extending instead of being liquidated (and tbf, even with his performance this past season his current contract has been a bargain), Strome hanging around as long as he did, etc. Those guys were around and took up spots on PP1 and the top 6 for all of Kakko's ELC and 2 of the 3 years on Lafs. Those guys are not going to get better at playing in that situation by not playing.

I'll say this: Strome was a phenomenal stop gap player - Thats the kind of player you want while you're in the middle of a rebuild as he isn't completely inept and he could soak minutes as a 2C. The problem is Panarin came along and all of a sudden he was deployed like a featured player.

Lias and Kravtsov were lost causes (at least they were able to turn Lias into Cuylle who is good) but it would have probably been wise to hold off on Panarin while continuing to accumulate assets. Even if he was "just cap space" a ton of guys who are younger/better have been moved since he signed and it would have been nice to have the space/chips to make a play for some of those guys. They tried to stuff the guy in at the very beginning of the whole process before we knew what the f*** any of these young players were and sell us on having him "accelerate" the rebuild but instead, they just tried to build around a guy who we now know you can’t build around.

This isn’t captain hindsight either. I never wanted him to begin with because I knew this would happen. There are other surprises along the way that I wasn’t expecting (I didn’t think he’d still be this productive 6 years into his contract, I also didn’t think he’d be as bad as he’s been in the playoffs) but the rebuild was doomed the second he signed.

I mean, I've never bought all of this stuff. Water finds its level, no? If Lafreniere was a game busting uber-talent then nobody would be in his way. The most concerning thing about him, in particular, is that he had one good micro-burst in last year's playoffs and not much of anything else. He was on a line with the guy you're roasting who had 120 points and managed 58 points. Trocheck had 70+. Kakko had multiple stints on the "first line" and did nothing with it. He's playing 3+ more minutes a night in Seattle and doing the same damned thing he did here and this is Panarin's fault?

How many coaches for Kakko and Laf? None of them could figure it out either?

After Panarin's first year with the club the Rangers had 8 first rounders in 4 years and 3 (or is it 4?) seconds. That's A LOT of draft capital. That's not accelerating a rebuild by bringing in a 28 year old 1st line winger. None of these draft picks can hold Panarin's jock strap at this point and none since, either, while we're talking about it.

Building through the draft can work. It can also crash and burn. Vegas has, I believe ONE of it's first round picks still on the team in their entire history.

Look at Edmonton and their litany of 1st round picks, 1OA's, etc... they've got one final to show for it. Hall, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisatl, Nurse, Puljujarvi, McDavid, Eberle, Gagner, etc...

Buffalo Power, Quinn, Cozens, Dahlin, Middlestadt, Nylander, Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Myers, etc.. No playoffs in how long?

You don't know that "the rebuild" would've gone any better without Panarin. The seasons almost certainly would've gone worse. The crystal ball will never tell us what might have been.

Panarin isn't the problem. Shitty luck on a 1OA and a 2OA certainly contribute. Imagine if either of these players were bona fine 90 point guys or both? Maybe we do get the Cup last year.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Just to be clear, your numbers are 5v5 goals against and 5v5 xgoals against, correct? For the past 5 playoffs?

Yeah just straight up goals against/60.

Can't do last 5 playoffs because I don't have anything that gives access to 5 years spreads (best I can do is 3.) The Rangers have missed the playoffs twice in those years so the team specific numbers would be the same, but the tool I used doesn't account for Goodrow's time as a Bolt (where I imagine he fared quite well, his line was awesome.)

Ran the numbers over his time as a Ranger (using 330 TOI as the base line because he played 334) and he was 4th worst in GA/60 as a NYR.

Expected numbers? He was a team worst 3.44 xGA/60.

I still can't believe he popped 6 goals in the playoffs last year.

 

[haohmaru]

Yeah just straight up goals against/60.

Can't do last 5 playoffs because I don't have anything that gives access to 5 years spreads (best I can do is 3.) The Rangers have missed the playoffs twice in those years so the team specific numbers would be the same, but the tool I used doesn't account for Goodrow's time as a Bolt (where I imagine he fared quite well, his line was awesome.)

Ran the numbers over his time as a Ranger (using 330 TOI as the base line because he played 334) and he was 4th worst in GA/60 as a NYR.

Expected numbers? He was a team worst 3.44 xGA/60.

I still can't believe he popped 6 goals in the playoffs last year.

If Goodrow was such a steal and great locker room guy and playoff presence etc... somebody would've grabbed him off SJ in March for this playoff run.

He was a -37 with 3 goals this year making 3.6M and this is what Mika & Co. were crying and quitting about?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I mean, I've never bought all of this stuff. Water finds its level, no? If Lafreniere was a game busting uber-talent then nobody would be in his way. The most concerning thing about him, in particular, is that he had one good micro-burst in last year's playoffs and not much of anything else. He was on a line with the guy you're roasting who had 120 points and managed 58 points. Trocheck had 70+. Kakko had multiple stints on the "first line" and did nothing with it. He's playing 3+ more minutes a night in Seattle and doing the same damned thing he did here and this is Panarin's fault?

How many coaches for Kakko and Laf? None of them could figure it out either?

After Panarin's first year with the club the Rangers had 8 first rounders in 4 years and 3 (or is it 4?) seconds. That's A LOT of draft capital. That's not accelerating a rebuild by bringing in a 28 year old 1st line winger. None of these draft picks can hold Panarin's jock strap at this point and none since, either, while we're talking about it.

Building through the draft can work. It can also crash and burn. Vegas has, I believe ONE of it's first round picks still on the team in their entire history.

Look at Edmonton and their litany of 1st round picks, 1OA's, etc... they've got one final to show for it. Hall, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisatl, Nurse, Puljujarvi, McDavid, Eberle, Gagner, etc...

Buffalo Power, Quinn, Cozens, Dahlin, Middlestadt, Nylander, Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Grigorenko, Myers, etc.. No playoffs in how long?

You don't know that "the rebuild" would've gone any better without Panarin. The seasons almost certainly would've gone worse. The crystal ball will never tell us what might have been.

Panarin isn't the problem. Shitty luck on a 1OA and a 2OA certainly contribute. Imagine if either of these players were bona fine 90 point guys or both? Maybe we do get the Cup last year.

Thats the thing though, neither of those guys were really given the chance because they did have guys ahead of them who got preference and in Kakkos case, was taken out of these situations because a certain someone allegedly didn't want to play with him.

I wasn't even aruging about building through the draft. I was talking about continuting to acquire picks/prospects and building a war chest that you could dig into to move the surplus for other players who were more age/performance appropriate.

Panarin's production f***ing drops through the floor in the playoffs. Lets just use last year as a base line -

Zibanejad
RS - 0.89 PPG
PS - 1.00 PPG (+0.11)

Kreider
RS - 0.91 PPG
PS- 0.75 (-.0.16)

Roslovic
RS - 0.52 PPG
PS - 0.50 (-0.02)

Trocheck
RS - 0.94 PPG
PS - 1.25 PPG (+0.31)

Lafreniere
RS - 0.70 PPG
PS - 0.88 PPG (+0.18)

Panarin
RS - 1.46
PS - 0.94 (-0.52!!!)

Expecting him to produce at 1.46 in the playoffs is unfair, but there no reason for him to drop off by half a point a game plus when both of his line mates produced at a higher rate in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

Overall, RS to PS Panarin's difference as a Ranger is -0.51 so this isn't an outlier driven by a massive regular season. This is par for the course with him and I don't see how that isn't a problem.

Everyone else has done what has been expected of them or better (Kreider's drop off what you typically see from the non McDavid/Draisaitl/MacK group.)

This was true in 2022 too minus a broken Strome.

 

[SA16]

Thats the thing though, neither of those guys were really given the chance because they did have guys ahead of them who got preference and in Kakkos case, was taken out of these situations because a certain someone allegedly didn't want to play with him.

I wasn't even aruging about building through the draft. I was talking about continuting to acquire picks/prospects and building a war chest that you could dig into to move the surplus for other players who were more age/performance appropriate.

Panarin's production f***ing drops through the floor in the playoffs. Lets just use last year as a base line -

Zibanejad
RS - 0.89 PPG
PS - 1.00 PPG (+0.11)

Kreider
RS - 0.91 PPG
PS- 0.75 (-.0.16)

Roslovic
RS - 0.52 PPG
PS - 0.50 (-0.02)

Trocheck
RS - 0.94 PPG
PS - 1.25 PPG (+0.31)

Lafreniere
RS - 0.70 PPG
PS - 0.88 PPG (+0.18)

Panarin
RS - 1.46
PS - 0.94 (-0.52!!!)

Expecting him to produce at 1.46 in the playoffs is unfair, but there no reason for him to drop off by half a point a game plus when both of his line mates produced at a higher rate in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

Overall, RS to PS Panarin's difference as a Ranger is -0.51 so this isn't an outlier driven by a massive regular season. This is par for the course with him and I don't see how that isn't a problem.

Everyone else has done what has been expected of them or better (Kreider's drop off what you typically see from the non McDavid/Draisaitl/MacK group.)

This was true in 2022 too minus a broken Strome.

Let's look at some numbers from the last 3 playoffs (prior to this year).

Looking at forwards who have played 1000+ regular season minutes and 200+ playoff minutes in that time frame, at 5v5. There are 134 of them.

Let's remove the bottom six type guys because that's not what we're interested in, say anyone under 1.8 pts/60 in the regular season. That leaves us with 71 players.

Panarin is 63rd with a playoff scoring rate 54% of his regular season rate. This is hardly unprecedented though. Kucherov is 51st. MacKinnon 53rd. Tavares 55th. Reinhart 64th. Point 66th. Pastrnak 67th.

It does not seem that egregious to me nor does it seem predictive of the future at all. You're not going to tell me you expect Kucherov/MAcKinnon/Point/Pastrnak not to produce in the playoffs going forward because they haven't in their last 3 are you? Panarin looks to be right in a group of a lot of players who have had significantly diminished 5v5 playoff scoring.

 

[tlk]

It really is summer.

 

[tlk]

Now that they'll try to move KAM is even less likely((

 

[JohnC]

I’ll never forgive David Quinn for Kakko’s rookie season.

He looked like a man among boys at Traverse and a good training camp. Those pre-season/early season powerplays when him and Panarin were slinging the puck to each other wing to wing and getting good looks out of it was a sight to behold.

 

[tlk]

I’ll never forgive David Quinn for Kakko’s rookie season.

He looked like a man among boys at Traverse and a good training camp. Those pre-season/early season powerplays when him and Panarin were slinging the puck to each other wing to wing and getting good looks out of it was a sight to behold.

Both he and Chyt were heavily hit by Quinn and Covid.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Both he and Chyt were heavily hit by Quinn and Covid.

Id even say laf was hit hard too.

 

[Levitate]

I’ll never forgive David Quinn for Kakko’s rookie season.

He looked like a man among boys at Traverse and a good training camp. Those pre-season/early season powerplays when him and Panarin were slinging the puck to each other wing to wing and getting good looks out of it was a sight to behold.

funny enough his rookie season was by far the high water mark for him in power play points (mostly assists)

 

[RangersFan1994]

Is it me, or this team plays the players that are injured more than most teams do?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Let's look at some numbers from the last 3 playoffs (prior to this year).

Looking at forwards who have played 1000+ regular season minutes and 200+ playoff minutes in that time frame, at 5v5. There are 134 of them.

Let's remove the bottom six type guys because that's not what we're interested in, say anyone under 1.8 pts/60 in the regular season. That leaves us with 71 players.

Panarin is 63rd with a playoff scoring rate 54% of his regular season rate. This is hardly unprecedented though. Kucherov is 51st. MacKinnon 53rd. Tavares 55th. Reinhart 64th. Point 66th. Pastrnak 67th.

It does not seem that egregious to me nor does it seem predictive of the future at all. You're not going to tell me you expect Kucherov/MAcKinnon/Point/Pastrnak not to produce in the playoffs going forward because they haven't in their last 3 are you? Panarin looks to be right in a group of a lot of players who have had significantly diminished 5v5 playoff scoring.

I'm going to go ahead and assume that you're running from 2021-22 to 23-24? Because if you are, this is disingenuous as f***.

In that time frame...

MacK leads Colorado in scoring. Kucherov leads Tampa in scoring. Trying to throw these 2 into the mix is just as pointless as throwing Reinhart or Tavares into the mix. Just names for the sake of names.

Pasternak is 3rd (this one applies so you got one, his runs haven't been great.)

Point is 7th - but theres a pretty major discrepancy in GP as he missed a ton of time during the 2022 playoffs. The latter 2 series in this data set (assuming this is what you were talking about) saw them get bounced in 6 and 5 games against teams that were favored.

Panarin is 5th on the NYR. No games missed, no nagging injuries and a pair of deep runs. Do we really want to revisit the one series that they lost in the first round?

 

[Homelander]

I swear to christ if they decide to run it back with Sully being the only change, i'm finding a different team to support

Wait, what do you mean? He's not hiring any assistants?

 

[2014nyr]

I swear to christ if they decide to run it back with Sully being the only change, i'm finding a different team to support

Its a far better option than making a bunch of moves right now. For sure they need to do some tinkering on the edges and kick the tires on potential impact players in deals primarily based on futures/excess prospect types.

Maybe a kreider move is what both parties want and you tale what you can get. Maybe kandre plays hardball on a number thats not justifiable/doesnt work cap wise and you have to move him.

Other than that, mika and panarin ain’t going anywhere. Not happening. Besides, most of the team is hovering at or near their lowest possible value off this season. You don’t get rich selling low, and you’ll lose everything selling low to but high. The smart move is to see what’s out there, but don’t take discounts on players almost certain to bounce back next year to some degree and, very likely, a few will have significant to major bouncebacks.

Unless you’re a forced seller, never chase moves for the sake of it. Deals should be pursued from a position of leverage unless as a forced seller.

 

[Fitzy]

Is it me, or this team plays the players that are injured more than most teams do?

Maybe. Sounds somewhat like it.

Wonder if this had anything to do with the Ramsay firing or the teams lack of depth, but now I sounds like a Qanon jackass

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I don't particularly care if Mika leaves, what i do care is that he's used properly, pk1, 3c,pp2. Having Miller, Trochek, Mika, Carrick down the middle is a nice luxury. Move Kreider, promote some kids, give Robertson some time to get his feet wet in the nhl, play Zone d, get some new looks on the pp, better breakout and it's a good team.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Maybe. Sounds somewhat like it.

Wonder if this had anything to do with the Ramsay firing or the teams lack of depth, but now I sounds like a Qanon jackass

2024/25 team injury breakdowns

Notes Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/...

nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com

One of the healthier teams in the league

 

[kovazub94]

Ridiculous take. Is McDavid the best player in the league? Yes. Is a wing who scored 870 points in 752 games one of the best players in the league as well? Yes. If you can get that player for signing on the dotted line with no assets lost, no development time, in his 20's do you do that every time? Yes. Anything else is just dumb.


Catering? Source? Prove it or you're just making shit up. If we're talking Kane I think that was a Rangers management problem. Not a Panarin problem. They thought they'd rekindle that old magic on a dude with one working hip. That's on management.



Kucherov hasn't scored a goal in 15 straight playoff games. Let's shoot him into the sun too. The Rangers biggest problem is there are no other threats. Whenever Panarin is out, the offense dries up. Any good defensive (5v5) team keys on him and its over because nobody else can pass worth a shit.



Guentzel has Kucherov. Verhaege has Barkov, Tkachuk, Bennet and arguably the best team in the league.

Panarin had 4 GWG in last year's playoffs. Zibanejad had, let me look it up, oh, here it is. ZERO.

Florida shut him down and smothered him. Leading into that series Panarin was leading the team in scoring.



One player has NEVER won a cup. Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the league and is a wing, like Panarin, and has won one cup.

Panarin isn't the problem. It's the supporting cast.

Absolutely this! The only reason it didn’t work out for the SC or nothing crowd is that neither of them became Rantanen, Kucherov or Guentzel etc impactful players besides the luck and other variables required for “everything went right” outcome.

 

[The don godfather]

Bruins fan here Bruins need a center badly and seems mika and rags are parting ways. Wondering if a 2nd round pick with some salary retention would do the trick maybe 30 percent? Bruins have an extra second round pick this season.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Bruins fan here Bruins need a center badly and seems mika and rags are parting ways. Wondering if a 2nd round pick with some salary retention would do the trick maybe 30 percent? Bruins have an extra second round pick this season.

Id do that as a Rangers fan

 

[IDvsEGO]

Id do that as a Rangers fan

salary retention on 5 years... for a 2nd round pick.

Unless pasta or McAvoy is coming the other way at 50%... no f'ing way.

Mika for a 2nd, sure the cap space is valuable. Not an issue.
But retaining on 5 years doesn't happen.