Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX (WTF are we going to do this Off-Season edition)

[TGWL]

He'll get some AHL time next year barring some kind of crazy performance.

Ryan Leonard has looked similarly very lost.

Leonard is trying to do way too much. It's tough for these players going straight to NHL end of the season/playoff hockey. You just can't throw these players into the top line/top minutes unless you're blowing it all up, in which case you're handing over the keys.

 

[TGWL]

I'm not so sure Sullivan would be a good hire for Gabe. A BU guy coaching a BC top prospect? He could just as easily try to bury Gabe in the lineup because of the rivalry between the two schools.

I don't think any coach we hired is going to bury a top prospect because of a school rivalry.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Winnipeg sucks. There's nothing to draw on there. There's no version of Winnipeg that's a Cup winner. Their window was stillborn.

Their 2018 team was dope.

Thats the team that could have/should have won.

 

[effen]

Leonard is trying to do way too much. It's tough for these players going straight to NHL end of the season/playoff hockey. You just can't throw these players into the top line/top minutes unless you're blowing it all up, in which case you're handing over the keys.

It's not even that, it's game speed and processing. You can see with Leonard he just goes to some generic
"good" spot and then watches the play happen around him at 100 MPH.

Even the worst NHLers have game sense 5x better than kids breaking in because it's SO stark and jarring you instantly notice it when they don't have it. Rempe currently has much better game sense than a Berkly Catton which is sorta hilarious.

 

[Machinehead]

Their 2018 team was dope.

Thats the team that could have/should have won.

I don't necessarily disagree but that's like a completely different team at this point.

 

[toNYRico]

Sullivan with Torts handling the defense seems infinitely better than Lavi with Housley.

 

[tlk]

Trade Othmann for Kaapo Kakko+ (Seattle Kraken).

Bread - JT - Gabe
Laf - Zib - Kakko
Will - Troch - Berard
Ed - Carrick - Rempe
(Kaliyev)

Trade KAM(+ Drury's soul) for Zeev Buyim.

Pray for Igor.

 

[Fitzy]

If Drury takes the path of needing to lean into defense at the expense of offense, it really begs the question why he just paid the goalie $11.5M.

If he’s worth that much, you shouldn’t need to structure your entire team around being a defense first operation. Should be using him to paper over defensive deficiencies. Makes no sense.

Yeah I made a similar remark during the Tortorella years with Hank which was- if our goalie saves significantly better than average chances against, the way to leverage that is to play run and gun. You want more chances for and against if you're wanting to get the best statistical results.

But, Igor is a mentally shaky goalie. He's visibly happier and more on his game when he's only let in 0-2 goals to that point in any perfomance. His confidence and focus can slip. He's always been obsessed with his stats going back to his KHL days. Maybe he gives us his best hockey when the games are tight and he 'feels' like he's having a great game.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Yeah I made a similar remark during the Tortorella years with Hank which was- if our goalie saves significantly better than average chances against, the way to leverage that is to play run and gun. You want more chances for and against if you're wanting to get the best statistical results.

But, Igor is a mentally shaky goalie. He's visibly happier and more on his game when he's only let in 0-2 goals to that point in any perfomance. His confidence and focus can slip. He's always been obsessed with his stats going back to his KHL days. Maybe he gives us his best hockey when the games are tight and he 'feels' like he's having a great game.

I largely agree w your analysis, especially that Shesty is very streaky. But again begs the question, if he needs to be propped up by the team to such a degree, how can you justify paying him far and away the #1 goalie contract?

 

[kovazub94]

Well, I guess purely on the Pens' fortunes lately. As if the said fortunes could be (meaningfully) better...

Yeah, as early as two years ago Sully was a genius and all you can hear here is "why Rangers never able to get a coach like this...". And then some people just want to be contrarian no matter what.

 

[Fitzy]

I largely agree w your analysis, especially that Shesty is very streaky. But again begs the question, if he needs to be propped up by the team to such a degree, how can you justify paying him far and away the #1 goalie contract?

If it were up to me he'd be gone. I thought 9.5 was the max I'd give the guy over 8 years.

But at the end of the day, really truly mediocre .899 goalies are getting 6-7 million over long term deals now. I don't think one case of overpaying by a few million will break our roster's chances. The bigger issue is that we have very little future draft capital for trades and a ton of holes to fill, at a time when UFA bidding is going to look like Major League Baseball contracts.

It's gonna be bad. 2nd line players and defensemen making 8 digits a year, 100 million contracts signed in their 30s.

 

[tlk]

Yeah, as early as two years ago Sully was a genius and all you can hear here is "why Rangers never able to get a coach like this...". And then some people just want to be contrarian no matter what.

He was probably that good back then.. yet who knows how these years with a really bad team could've scarred him.

 

[tiggles]

I'm kind of whatever on Sullivan. Seems like he's just a guy, but I'd rather him than someone like Tocchet. Bigger issue to me is that, if Sullivan is interested, any other interviews the Rangers do are basically just a formality, and they've already made up their minds.

 

[cheech70]

Trade Othmann for Kaapo Kakko+ (Seattle Kraken).

Bread - JT - Gabe
Laf - Zib - Kakko
Will - Troch - Berard
Ed - Carrick - Rempe
(Kaliyev)

Trade KAM(+ Drury's soul) for Zeev Buyim.

Pray for Igor.

There is no scenario where Mika is back as a NYR.

 

[haohmaru]

Good article on Sullivan's departure here:

No one is to blame for the Penguins-Mike Sullivan split. It was just time

Sullivan's final chapters in Pittsburgh weren't great, but he is a giant in Penguins history and will be remembered as such.

www.nytimes.com

Use archive.ph if you can't read it.

 

[McRanger92]

You need to win games. You win games by outscoring the other team.

Limiting goals against is a way to outscore other teams. Panarin and JT Miller were both 100 point players a season ago, thats not enough to have a working powerplay?

 

[haohmaru]

Limiting goals against is a way to outscore other teams. Panarin and JT Miller were both 100 point players a season ago, thats not enough to have a working powerplay?

If you can't get Panarin, Miller, Fox, Mika, and Kreider to get a 20+% PP then you need a new PP coach.

 

[McRanger92]

If you can't get Panarin, Miller, Fox, Mika, and Kreider to get a 20% PP then you need a new PP coach.

Well today's your lucky day because they are about to have one. I think the coaching issue on the PP was about deploying the same players in the same spots and expecting different results.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah, as early as two years ago Sully was a genius and all you can hear here is "why Rangers never able to get a coach like this...". And then some people just want to be contrarian no matter what.

I think this was true back when they were winning. I'm relatively certain that most people were worried of the concept of him being fired when Dubas was hired 2 seasons ago (when we did have an opening) because of where that would have led (better than Lavi? Probably, but that isn't a tough bar to clear.) We have even more data than we did then and we should be even more worried because it's a real possibility now.

Since 2019, they've been owned by the Isles (twice, swept once!) and KO'd by the NYR (in a series they should have probably won sure, but it still happened.)

I don't think it's about being contrarian, it's about identifying who he is as a coach and applying his philosophy to the current roster. Simply put, it doesn't mesh and I don't like his style of hockey to begin with. You can't win with WEEEEEEE hockey unless you're either just so overwhelmingly good (see: Pitt in 2016) where you can bull doze anyone or you're good enough and you get some really favorable matchups along the way (see: Colorado in 2022.) Part of coaching is adjusting to what you have and he didn't do that in Pitt and he would have to do that here.

He doesn't have the same baggage as Lavi (we don't know how he'd integrate young players into the lineup because the Pens have had none! The last time he did have them he did a good job, but that was 9 years ago) but it would be the laziest, most uninspired hire of all time.

At the end of the day I'll just put it this way:

We've seen how bad the Metro has been the last 3 seasons.

The Pens have missed the playoffs all 3 years. that says a lot.

 

[McRanger92]

I think this was true back when they were winning. I'm relatively certain that most people were worried of the concept of him being fired when Dubas was hired 2 seasons ago (when we did have an opening) because of where that would have led (better than Lavi? Probably, but that isn't a tough bar to clear.) We have even more data than we did then and we should be even more worried because it's a real possibility now.

Since 2019, they've been owned by the Isles (twice, swept once!) and KO'd by the NYR (in a series they should have probably won sure, but it still happened.)

I don't think it's about being contrarian, it's about identifying who he is as a coach and applying his philosophy to the current roster. Simply put, it doesn't mesh and I don't like his style of hockey to begin with. You can't win with WEEEEEEE hockey unless you're either just so overwhelmingly good (see: Pitt in 2016) where you can bull doze anyone or you're good enough and you get some really favorable matchups along the way (see: Colorado in 2022.) Part of coaching is adjusting to what you have and he didn't do that in Pitt and he would have to do that here.

He doesn't have the same baggage as Lavi (we don't know how he'd integrate young players into the lineup because the Pens have had none! The last time he did have them he did a good job, but that was 9 years ago) but it would be the laziest, most uninspired hire of all time.

At the end of the day I'll just put it this way:

We've seen how bad the Metro has been the last 3 seasons.

The Pens have missed the playoffs all 3 years. that says a lot.

"Lazy and uninspired" is subjective. Hiring a fresh face doesnt really guarantee anything. Sullivan's resume is among the best in the league and he's by far the most qualified candidate available. That also guarantees nothing of course, but its less of a risk. And while they've missed the playoffs the last 3 year, Pittsburgh hasnt really had a playoff caliber roster since we beat them. And that was probably the best team they've had since their Cup wins.

 

[zlev]

"Lazy and uninspired" is subjective. Hiring a fresh face doesnt really guarantee anything. Sullivan's resume is among the best in the league and he's by far the most qualified candidate available. And while they've missed the playoffs the last 3 year, Pittsburgh hasnt really had a playoff caliber roster since we beat them. And that was probably the best team they've had since their Cup wins.

you said exactly the same thing about Laviolette

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

"Lazy and uninspired" is subjective. Hiring a fresh face doesnt really guarantee anything. Sullivan's resume is among the best in the league and he's by far the most qualified candidate available. That also guarantees nothing of course, but its less of a risk. And while they've missed the playoffs the last 3 year, Pittsburgh hasnt really had a playoff caliber roster since we beat them. And that was probably the best team they've had since their Cup wins.

The Isles have made the playoffs in 2 of those years.

No one on the planet thinks they had a better roster than Pittsburgh did in either of those seasons.

 

[McRanger92]

The Isles have made the playoffs in 2 of those years.

No one on the planet thinks they had a better roster than Pittsburgh did in either of those seasons.

Much better goaltending helps

 

[tiggles]

Not saying that they're similar coaches, but this situation reeks of the Lavi hire. They went the "safe" route with Lavi rather than take a chance on someone "riskier" like Carberry, and look where they ended up. Likewise, I expect them to make the "safe" hire again in Sullivan, instead of entertaining new ideas. We'll see how it ends up this time.

 

[Alluckks]

My guess at Drury’s ideal plan loosely

Hire Sullivan
Trade a crap ton for Tkachuk this year or next
Sign Eichel
Trocheck, Miller, Cuylle as the only forwards for sure being kept around from the current roster

Dolan gets to tout Team America in New York