Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX (WTF are we going to do this Off-Season edition)

[80s Kid]

The reason I'm gunshy about doing short-term roster building right now is not so much "I think they should just tear it down!" You could have that discussion, but ultimately, they're probably not doing that, and it's more fun to discuss targets.

Nah, the bigger reason is that the UFA market sucks an entire butt, so now I have to make trades. I hate making up trades. All of this is fantasy but making up trades is ten times more unrealistic than making up signings.

With a signing, I just have to assume the person signs here. With a trade, I have to assume a return we're willing to part with, a return they're willing to accept, a return they're willing to part with, and a return we're willing to accept, and on top of that the willingness of certain guys to waive clauses and shit like that.

Plus UFA's are obvious targets, whereas there's absolutely no indication the Rangers have even considered guys I would suggest in a trade.

But if I had to do it: I've been thinking about Utah a lot. They were 8th in xGF%. They don't have a ton of talent but I really like the way they play. I like some of their guys.

What's Utah even doing? Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to get better? What's the outlook? This is why I hate doing trades.

I don't think Panarin goes to Utah willingly; maybe you get a third team involved. I would start with Panarin and Lafreniere. Lafreniere will be an unpopular selection but if you wanna say "but Machinehead we're not rebuilding!!!" then my moves have to address that he sucks right now.

But anyway, as far as what we give up, use your imagination.

I'm thinking about three guys. Nick Schmaltz -- I've wanted him for awhile. He scores at even strength. Period. That's the whole explanation. Josh Doan -- drove play at 5v5 last year like crazy. People talk about character and a certain style of play. You've seen his dad, right? Mikhail Sergachev -- LHD with term who's low-key really f***ing good.

Just spitballing here, but yeah. Why Utah? Hate to give you guys bad news but if you want any chance of getting back into contention quickly, which a lot of you do, we have to play Moneyball. We have to find good 5v5 players that aren't necessarily on everyone's radar.

Agree with you on Schmaltz. I feel like he's very underappreciated around the league. Whenever I watch Utah/AZ, I get the feeling that if they can get their defensive structure figured out, they could do some damage. I was at the Quick all-time win record for a US goalie game last year against the Coyotes and was impressed with their offense.

 

[Machinehead]

We can now confirm that Adam Fox is "doing stuff, but not zooming around."

It's accurate.

 

[RangerBoy]

Also outside of Perreault, the Rangers really don’t have much to trade let’s just be honest here. Prospect pool is bad, still don’t have a surplus of picks, and outside of Lafreniere, Miller, and Schneider everyone else with value has a NTC or NMC. Making trades is not going to be easy for Drury. Nevermind I have no trust in him. Just making trades with where the organization is at is going to be difficult.

Not everyone with value has a restriction clause....yet.

 

[TGWL]

Peterka - Eichel - ______
Cuylle - Miller - Perreault
______ - Trocheck - ______
______ - ________ - _______

Fill in with free agency, Rempe, Edstrom, Carrick, Sykora, Othmann, etc.

This is a game of just write down players and hope we land them.

There's 2 options on landing Eichel. One requires trading away valuable assets and the other is hoping we sign him as a UFA in July 2026. I'm not sure players like Laf straight up land us Peterka or 1 year left on Eichel, and we're a bit short on removing more valuable assets.

Here we traded Zibanejad and Kreider and took no contracts back, unless you see Buffalo or Vegas taking ZIbanejad? I don't see that being a fit.

 

[Machinehead]

This is a game of just write down players and hope we land them.

The whole forum is that, to be fair.

 

[TGWL]

The whole forum is that, to be fair.

Sure, though not typically in the "relax, our future is bright", counter argument.

 

[RangerBoy]

Are you going to take a break from your unprovoked analytics bashing to talk about how bad Makar was?

Makar didn't have his best series. I read Makar played with a bad hand. Makar helped the Avs win a Cup three years ago in 2022 where they ran over everyone. Edmonton and TB. The Avs haven't done anything since winning the Cup. They really need to win with McKinnon still in his prime.

You base everything on analytics. Heaven forbid someone disagree with what the chart says. Here is my issue with analytics people which includes you. The way they present their models makes it seem like there’s absolutely no flaws and that it’s the only “right” way to look at hockey. For some people, Evolving Wild, JFresh, and Dom have basically become the gospel.

But relying only on analytics is a problem when there’s so much they just can’t measure. Hockey’s such a nuanced game, and a lot of the little things get overlooked, like positioning, reading plays, supporting teammates, and just overall feel for the game.

Advanced stats can definitely help tell part of the story, especially when points don’t show the full picture. But they’re just one piece of the puzzle.

What did Lou Piniella say about stats

Quote:​

“Statistics are like bikinis – they show a lot, but not everything.”

Context:​

This one might be his most iconic – and hilarious – quote.

“It’s a very true statement,” Piniella said. “Statistics are very misleading. I look at statistics when the game is on the line and when the pressure is on. The players can pad their statistics when the game has already been decided and you don’t win pennants or World Series that way. You need big-game players and big-game moments. The statistics that really, really count are the ones that help you win baseball games and those pennants and World Series.”

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-video-player/sweet-lous-lines-statistics-are-like-bikinis/

 

[frozenrubber]

View attachment 1030200

This is a fun stat LMAO

Does stuff:

Miller
Panarin
Carrick
Kreider
Trocheck

Sometimes does stuff:

Cuylle

Does not do stuff:

Lafreniere
Zibanejad

I think most of that matches with my perception of players who are noticeable.

I find the table misleading, it clearly ignores Lafreniere's Bubble Yum per 60

 

[Machinehead]

Makar didn't have his best series. I read Makar played with a bad hand. Makar helped the Avs win a Cup three years ago in 2022 where they ran over everyone. Edmonton and TB. The Avs haven't done anything since winning the Cup. They really need to win with McKinnon still in his prime.

You base everything on analytics. Heaven forbid someone disagree with what the chart says. Here is my issue with analytics people which includes you. The way they present their models makes it seem like there’s absolutely no flaws and that it’s the only “right” way to look at hockey. For some people, Evolving Wild, JFresh, and Dom have basically become the gospel.

But relying only on analytics is a problem when there’s so much they just can’t measure. Hockey’s such a nuanced game, and a lot of the little things get overlooked, like positioning, reading plays, supporting teammates, and just overall feel for the game.

Advanced stats can definitely help tell part of the story, especially when points don’t show the full picture. But they’re just one piece of the puzzle.

What did Lou Piniella say about stats

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-video-player/sweet-lous-lines-statistics-are-like-bikinis/

You make it about analytics because people disagree with you and that's how you cope with it.

If you watch Adam Fox and think the Rangers should trade him, you can't evaluate players.

You've dug yourself a hole with this ridiculous take where nobody thinks you know what you're talking about anymore, and you're going to just deflect towards blaming the nerds.

 

[Vitto79]

Wild are likely moving Rossi to open up space to sign someone like Marner. Think they’d be looking for younger guys on ELCs or productive forwards on bargain contracts

Ah yes that’s easy to do
Marner signs Back in TO

 

[McRanger92]

You make it about analytics because people disagree with you and that's how you cope with it.

If you watch Adam Fox and think the Rangers should trade him, you can't evaluate players.

You've dug yourself a hole with this ridiculous take where nobody thinks you know what you're talking about anymore, and you're going to just deflect towards blaming the nerds.

He’s got a point about how analytics get presented as gospel tbh. I like how Jfresh and Vallliquette present them in a more practical way.

 

[bhamill]

He is old and not an elite player.

But his profile as a player who "does stuff" can be tangibly shown.

Elite is a very subjective term. So is old. I don’t normally consider a hockey player who just turned 32 less than 2 months ago “old”… What’s your criteria for “elite?”

 

[Boris Zubov]

Drury looks completely disinterested, as usual.

 

[Machinehead]

Elite is a very subjective term. So is old. I don’t normally consider a hockey player who just turned 32 less than 2 months ago “old”… What’s your criteria for “elite?”

My criteria for elite is you never have to ask if the guy is elite.

 

[Machinehead]

He’s got a point about how analytics get presented as gospel tbh. I like how Jfresh and Vallliquette present them in a more practical way.

That may be the case but this is above and beyond the proper use of analytics.

This is lashing out because some people hate the best player on the team.

 

[bhamill]

View attachment 1030200

This is a fun stat LMAO

Does stuff:

Miller
Panarin
Carrick
Kreider
Trocheck

Sometimes does stuff:

Cuylle

Does not do stuff:

Lafreniere
Zibanejad

I think most of that matches with my perception of players who are noticeable.

The way I look at that 7 columns, I’d say first two columns (JT, Pan, Carrick) “do stuff,” next three “sometimes do stuff” (Kreids, Trocheck, Cuylle, Laf and Zibs) and the last two “don’t do stuff.” Interestingly no NYR in the last two columns, but some names you hear us admiring the play of/pining for like JJ Peterka, Dawson Mercer, Ovechkin, Rantanen, ROR, Hayton, M McTavish, Rossi…

Weird stat. Hahahaha. Doesn’t seem to necessarily predict the value of a player.

 

[Machinehead]

The way I look at that 7 columns, I’d say first two columns (JT, Pan, Carrick) “do stuff,” next three “sometimes do stuff” (Kreids, Trocheck, Cuylle, Laf and Zibs) and the last two “don’t do stuff.” Interestingly no NYR in the last two columns, but some names you hear us admiring the play of/pining for like JJ Peterka, Dawson Mercer, Ovechkin, Rantanen, ROR, Hayton, M McTavish, Rossi…

Weird stat. Hahahaha. Doesn’t seem to necessarily predict the value of a player.

No, not at all.

It's just contextualizing noticeability. I think it has value in exploring who we notice and why we notice them.

 

[bhamill]

No, not at all.

It's just contextualizing noticeability. I think it has value in exploring who we notice and why we notice them.

Well why do we notice JJ Peterka then? Hahaha.
I honestly didn’t look at what the criteria were, I just thought some players had weird rankings.

 

[Machinehead]

Well why do we notice JJ Peterka then? Hahaha.
I honestly didn’t look at what the criteria were, I just thought some players had weird rankings.

The board is fawning over Peterka because somebody posted his charts. That's partially my fault.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, you can notice players if they just skate really fast. That's why inspired jfresh to do the exercise.

Tyler Motte comes to mind. People really liked him even though he was pretty terrible.

 

[bhamill]

My criteria for elite is you never have to ask if the guy is elite.

Yeah. But different people ask about different players. Is Panarin elite? I just asked, I guess he’s not… but I would have thought so last year.
If that’s the criteria, I’d say there’s maybe 5 elite players in the league. Hahaha. So not exactly damning to say a player isn’t elite …

 

[bhamill]

The board is fawning over Peterka because somebody posted his charts. That's partially my fault.

Damn you! Hahahaha.
Well, it’s off season, gotta have fun with something.

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah. But different people ask about different players. Is Panarin elite? I just asked, I guess he’s not… but I would have thought so last year.
If that’s the criteria, I’d say there’s maybe 5 elite players in the league. Hahaha. So not exactly damning to say a player isn’t elite …

There only being a few is literally what elite means. I would say there's probably less than 20.

 

[NYRangers16]

Schneider should be 100% the guy to go but he was also on the list Brooks' reported on as being "the Rangers core" - JT Miller, Trocheck, Cuylle, Fox, Schneider and Igor.

So either 4d chess from Drury leaking that (not likely) or they actually see "baby Trouba" as a core piece. How that fits in w Fox/Borgen remains to be seen.

I mean, Borgen as a 3RD is pretty damn good. Problem is, we have zero LD that would be on a cup winning team.

 

[Machinehead]

McDavid
Draisaitl
Eichel
Pettersson
Hughes
Rantanen
Heiskanen
MacKinnon
Makar
Josi
Kaprisov
Fox
Hughes
Crosby
Ovechkin
Matthews
Marner
Kucherov
Point
M. Tkachuk
Barkov

Those are the players I would consider elite, not counting goalies because, you know, f*** em.

JT is a top 15ish center. "Elite" loses all meaning if he's even in the conversation.