Speculation: Roster Building thread - Part XVII - (TDL is March 7th)

[noncents]

Not caught up in your conversation but isn’t Yzerman supposed to be one of the best GMs and what has Detroit done since he’s been there? Nothing.

yeah the conversation isn't about GMing overall.

Theories:

1. Laziness - there’s 4 GMs in the entire NHL who have been with one team for 8+ years. The likelihood Drury is around to have to worry about Shesterkin’s NMC in years 5-8 is next to none, so why not just get my guy under contract and let the next guy deal with the fallout?

2. Inexperience - applies to earlier contracts given out. Adam Fox got his contract 5 months after Drury became GM. Probably could have actually gotten some salary suppression given the market had been set by Makar and Fox had publicly played his hand by saying NYR was the only team he would play for. He also gave Goodrow 6 years and a 15 team NTC 2 months into his tenure as GM. We know how that worked out.

3. Skill - Drury is good at some things. He’s been good at identifying solutions to getting contracts off the books and targeting young undervalued pieces with upside in return. I believe that’s what he was trying with Blais too and it was just a miss. We could say that’s a strength. Maybe negotiating salaries against professional agents simply isn’t a strength and some GMs are better at it.

The Panarin contract where he supposedly left money on the table, at least from the Islanders, was signed before he became GM. Same with Kreider.

The Trochek signing, as I’ve demonstrated was largely met with extreme skepticism and it’s only in hindsight because he’s had 2 of the best 3 seasons of his career here that people rewrote history and said he gave us a discount. At the time of the signing he was coming off a 50 point season.

Even Zibanejad, I can argue, got fair market and was not a discount. Same exact age as JT Miller, same exact career points per game, signed the year before (so Miller should get a slight bump for inflation/slight rise in the cap) and Zibanejad got the 8th year while Miller only got 7, yet Zib is higher paid.

But really, I don’t know the answer to your question - that doesn’t make the observation completely invalid and even if you disagree on this contract or that contract it’s splitting hairs; what I’m suggesting isn’t like completely off the reservation. It’s not like Mika or Fox signed for 7.5M and I’m over here complaining that Slavin got 6.4M so we need to do better!!! Why doesn’t Drury get a bit more leverage out of NMCs? I don’t know - why does Chiarelli’s name still come up as a legitimate GM candidate sometimes as if nearly the entire world hasn’t formed a consensus that he’s atrocious?

no disagreement with your arguments here - not going to go down the list but the piece I most agree with is the skill idea: that hard negotiating with agents just isn't his forte.

However, i think it's possible to further challenge your assumptions here. We are operating with a shared understanding that the Rangers are a *destination* franchise.

It's mentioned often as fact but I'm just not sure that's true, at least not for the types of players that win Cups. The Rangers attract, and historically value, a certain type of player and personality. Cuylle, for example, is an outlier. Is it possible that guys who want to squeeze every dollar out of the team are more likely to want to play in NYC?

Take the country club culture idea. Is it consensus at this point? Do we all believe it exists? I ask because: if we can tell it exists, if we "know about it" just from outside observation of on ice play, every single player in the league knows about it too. NYR is where you can go get paid and slack off - enjoy the fruits of MSG living and not have to earn it in the gym every day. This is to say nothing of the tax/cost of living comparison that almost certainly inhibits AAV suppression of any kind.

I think we also see that NYC is just not the destination it used to be. You see it with the Yankees too - they used to be the peak of the mountain. Now they're literally just another franchise, just another team.

My point is that the assumption underpinning your argument: "NYR are a destination franchise" needs to be heavily qualified, if not completely abandoned in the context of contract negotiations.

Another, more tinfoil hatty note on what you're asserting: I think Dolan has a lot to do with the way we do business. We know that Drury's communication style and management style is brusque, potentially disrespectful, bordering on ruthless. I honestly believe that players give other franchises' management teams a break to get the deal done based on goodwill. I know it comes down to dollars and cents, money talks, but most hockey players are not trying to stand out. They understand that in a hard cap environment, AAV is zero sum relative to their teammates. There are cultures, hierarchies, and social relationships. When guys want to keep a team together, want to stay someplace, they will bring all of it into the negotiating room. I don't think the Rangers' FO gets those breaks because I don't think there is a culture of openness, respect, and goodwill in the corporate structure of the organization. I think that matters.

 

[Fitzy]

The Dallas Stars will covet Reilly Smith. It's their best year in a while and they keep losing top players to long term injuries.

Next year's 2nd plus Minnetian, who they'll know having watched BC all season.

They might even have interest in Jones as an add on.

 

[MrAlmost]

Trade Smith. Trade Kreider. As of right now the players i like moving forward:

Cuylle-Miller-Z
Panarin-Tro-Laf
Berard-TBD-TBD
Edstrom-Carrick-Rempe
Brod

Do we trade Othmann? Flip Parsinen? Package them for a more serious center like McLeod? I'd do that for sure. Then Perreault takes that RW spot.

Defense:
TBD-Fox
Miller-Borgen
TBD-Schneider
Vaak

Are we trading Jones? Are we flipping Schneider for a better LHD since there is a need? Byram may be available but he has more value then Schneider and can the Rangers make that happen?

With the way the FA class has developed. It's looking f***ing abysmal. I'm not sold on any D man. Provorov sucks. Orlov too old and fake stats. Chychrun will stay in Wash and should. He has a good thing going. No f***ing way he plays like that here. Gavrikov likely to sign. Maata already sign.

I would think about a package of Kreider, Othmann, Parssinen and Schneider for Byram and McLeod. Pay to play. Maybe some picks come back our way. Only trouble is what to do with RHD at that point. Sign Ekblad? That feels like a ranger move for sure and a disaster.

Byram-Fox
Miller-Borgen
Jones?-Ekblad

I guess it's not that bad when I look at it. But man do I want us to sign our guys first for once. Sign cuylle long term. Sign Miller long term. Sign Ed and rempe long term too. Lock em all up. Stop f***ing around and get these f***ing players signed. Get them long term now and their deals will look crazy good by as soon as 2026.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Calling Byram a top 4 D is being kind.

He’s shown flashes but he’s hardly earned that title. Hes been ass away from Dahlin in Buffalo.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Trade Smith. Trade Kreider. As of right now the players i like moving forward:

Cuylle-Miller-Z
Panarin-Tro-Laf
Berard-TBD-TBD
Edstrom-Carrick-Rempe
Brod

Do we trade Othmann? Flip Parsinen? Package them for a more serious center like McLeod? I'd do that for sure. Then Perreault takes that RW spot.

Defense:
TBD-Fox
Miller-Borgen
TBD-Schneider
Vaak

Are we trading Jones? Are we flipping Schneider for a better LHD since there is a need? Byram may be available but he has more value then Schneider and can the Rangers make that happen?

With the way the FA class has developed. It's looking f***ing abysmal. I'm not sold on any D man. Provorov sucks. Orlov too old and fake stats. Chychrun will stay in Wash and should. He has a good thing going. No f***ing way he plays like that here. Gavrikov likely to sign. Maata already sign.

I would think about a package of Kreider, Othmann, Parssinen and Schneider for Byram and McLeod. Pay to play. Maybe some picks come back our way. Only trouble is what to do with RHD at that point. Sign Ekblad? That feels like a ranger move for sure and a disaster.

Byram-Fox
Miller-Borgen
Jones?-Ekblad

I guess it's not that bad when I look at it. But man do I want us to sign our guys first for once. Sign cuylle long term. Sign Miller long term. Sign Ed and rempe long term too. Lock em all up. Stop f***ing around and get these f***ing players signed. Get them long term now and their deals will look crazy good by as soon as 2026.

Trading for an injury prone Byram one with head issues, no thanks.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

Calling Byram a top 4 D is being kind.

He’s shown flashes but he’s hardly earned that title. Hes been ass away from Dahlin in Buffalo.

He was playing 20 minutes + in Colorado too

 

[RangersFan1994]

He was playing 20 minutes + in Colorado too

He’s also injury prone. Chytil of defense. Not worth the risk.

 

[kovazub94]

It’s unclear and apparently varies from player to player:

“The timing of submitting the teams on a No Trade list is negotiated in the contract, and can be at any date or any process. The most common is for it to be submitted July 1 each year, but any date can be used, or it could be required to be submitted when the team requests it.”

Would you please just drop this largely fully exhaused for discussion topic? By now there's been pages and pages of posts on this - that involves you as either a poster or someone whom posts are addressed. Thank you,

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

He’s also injury prone. Chytil of defense. Not worth the risk.

Yeah, hes had some really tough stretches with concussion symptoms. I wouldnt spend for that unfortunately.

 

[kovazub94]

Trade Smith. Trade Kreider. As of right now the players i like moving forward:

Cuylle-Miller-Z
Panarin-Tro-Laf
Berard-TBD-TBD
Edstrom-Carrick-Rempe
Brod

Do we trade Othmann? Flip Parsinen? Package them for a more serious center like McLeod? I'd do that for sure. Then Perreault takes that RW spot.

Defense:
TBD-Fox
Miller-Borgen
TBD-Schneider
Vaak

Are we trading Jones? Are we flipping Schneider for a better LHD since there is a need? Byram may be available but he has more value then Schneider and can the Rangers make that happen?

With the way the FA class has developed. It's looking f***ing abysmal. I'm not sold on any D man. Provorov sucks. Orlov too old and fake stats. Chychrun will stay in Wash and should. He has a good thing going. No f***ing way he plays like that here. Gavrikov likely to sign. Maata already sign.

I would think about a package of Kreider, Othmann, Parssinen and Schneider for Byram and McLeod. Pay to play. Maybe some picks come back our way. Only trouble is what to do with RHD at that point. Sign Ekblad? That feels like a ranger move for sure and a disaster.

Byram-Fox
Miller-Borgen
Jones?-Ekblad

I guess it's not that bad when I look at it. But man do I want us to sign our guys first for once. Sign cuylle long term. Sign Miller long term. Sign Ed and rempe long term too. Lock em all up. Stop f***ing around and get these f***ing players signed. Get them long term now and their deals will look crazy good by as soon as 2026.

I don't think Byram is the type of D that fits as Fox's partner (I'm assuming that Miller is not moved so Miller - Borgen is our 2nd "shutdown" pair that I'm not inclined to break up either)

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He was playing 20 minutes + in Colorado too

And they moved him partially because he couldn’t handle them.

Lindgren ate top 4 minutes here. That doesn’t make him a top 4 defenseman.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

Calling Byram a top 4 D is being kind.

He’s shown flashes but he’s hardly earned that title. Hes been ass away from Dahlin in Buffalo.

disagree

keep in mind thats all with being on the 4th worst team on the league. he even has a positive +/- somehow

 

[duhmetreE]

I'd still like Walman. IMO a really nice partner for Fox.

Cost though? We don't have many prospects/futures to entice San Jose....

Byram makes some sense for us. I just do not know what Buffalo would want since they allegedly don't want futures.

 

[bleedblue94]

We *HAD* someone to play with Fox. When they were together we had one of the best D Pairs in the league. But then our coach broke up that pair so that he could put the Lindgren anchor back on Fox, and reunite the Miller-Trouba disaster. Maybe if that pair hadn't been broken up we would be in a better spot in the standings right now.

Begining of the season Miller was playing so bad people wanted him run our of here. Always revisionist history to push an agenda

 

[Vitto79]

I'd still like Walman. IMO a really nice partner for Fox.

Cost though? We don't have many prospects/futures to entice San Jose....

Byram makes some sense for us. I just do not know what Buffalo would want since they allegedly don't want futures.

Ferraro not as streaky ?

 

[LokiDog]

yeah the conversation isn't about GMing overall.

no disagreement with your arguments here - not going to go down the list but the piece I most agree with is the skill idea: that hard negotiating with agents just isn't his forte.

However, i think it's possible to further challenge your assumptions here. We are operating with a shared understanding that the Rangers are a *destination* franchise.

It's mentioned often as fact but I'm just not sure that's true, at least not for the types of players that win Cups. The Rangers attract, and historically value, a certain type of player and personality. Cuylle, for example, is an outlier. Is it possible that guys who want to squeeze every dollar out of the team are more likely to want to play in NYC?

Take the country club culture idea. Is it consensus at this point? Do we all believe it exists? I ask because: if we can tell it exists, if we "know about it" just from outside observation of on ice play, every single player in the league knows about it too. NYR is where you can go get paid and slack off - enjoy the fruits of MSG living and not have to earn it in the gym every day. This is to say nothing of the tax/cost of living comparison that almost certainly inhibits AAV suppression of any kind.

I think we also see that NYC is just not the destination it used to be. You see it with the Yankees too - they used to be the peak of the mountain. Now they're literally just another franchise, just another team.

My point is that the assumption underpinning your argument: "NYR are a destination franchise" needs to be heavily qualified, if not completely abandoned in the context of contract negotiations.

Another, more tinfoil hatty note on what you're asserting: I think Dolan has a lot to do with the way we do business. We know that Drury's communication style and management style is brusque, potentially disrespectful, bordering on ruthless. I honestly believe that players give other franchises' management teams a break to get the deal done based on goodwill. I know it comes down to dollars and cents, money talks, but most hockey players are not trying to stand out. They understand that in a hard cap environment, AAV is zero sum relative to their teammates. There are cultures, hierarchies, and social relationships. When guys want to keep a team together, want to stay someplace, they will bring all of it into the negotiating room. I don't think the Rangers' FO gets those breaks because I don't think there is a culture of openness, respect, and goodwill in the corporate structure of the organization. I think that matters.

I can agree with all of that, but I still think (maybe this is just too much of an idealist attitude) that if the GM wants to build a winner it’s partially incumbent upon him to let free agents know this isn’t a country club and if you’re looking for your retirement contract, maybe NYR isn’t the fit you thought they were. I get that he still wants the player, but in theory if the vibe you’re getting during negotiations is that they’re looking to cash in on a culture of low accountability and high player autonomy, that may be a red flag for you as you build your team. But then to your final point - maybe it is that brusqueness and business is business attitude that has stopped us from getting some of those “feel good” deals signed. It’s a valid direction of thought. Kudos.

When it comes to UFAs, the destination argument certainly holds water but Trochek was really the only big UFA signing for Drury to get an NMC (and 7 years - so again, buying down AAV with term, but also with NMC) and Goodrow with the 15-NTC (and again, 6 years - so giving way too much term to buy down AAV and then still having to add trade protection). Zib, Fox and Shesterkin were extensions. Zib I don’t think was a bad contract at the time by any means, but he also didn’t concede anything in negotiations - his closest comp basically being Miller at the exact same age and exact same career points per game (and Miller had a 99 point season - Mika didn’t have his 91 point aeason until AFTER he signed). Mika got the extra year and the extra $500k. Again, totally fair contract, but certainly no concessions granted. The very next year a superior Miller (with a 99 point season already under his belt - and 102 on the way) took $500k less, and one less year (for a total of $9M less) and did that favor to Vancouver or all teams.

Fox is the same commentary from me. The contract is fine - more than fair, set up to age very well. I’ve never argued it’s a bad contract. I just argued that Drury really hasn’t ever gotten any value from the NMCs he gives. Fox was never NOT going to sign in NY. Especially not at 9M+. The Makar comp was set. No Norris at the time, but still mostly viewed as the top young D in the world, but he hadn’t come out and said “I only want to play for this team” either. I’m not complaining about the contract. All I’ve ever said was, Drury’s use of NMCs has( been the best and he may not be the best contract negotiator. The Shesterkin contract obviously shed a stronger microscope over his previous signings for me. I probably wouldn’t have dug as deep into the details of all the deals Drury himself has inked if I didn’t feel like he bent over and hiked his own skirt up for Igor.

This ought to be the last post on it, as I think we’ve reached an intellectual middle ground/truce on the topic and can acknowledge there are points or at least valid arguments on both sides. The way it was dismissed out of hand and the way I got round-about answers that were intended to shut my original thought down, when they were addressing adjacent or non-related subjects, pissed me off so I doubled down because… it’s a public discussion board and I can. Don’t worry, I’m a lot more surly in real life, to be honest.

 

[LokiDog]

Would you please just drop this largely fully exhaused for discussion topic? By now there's been pages and pages of posts on this - that involves you as either a poster or someone whom posts are addressed. Thank you,

What are you talking about?

Someone asked “when do players have to submit their trade lists” and I pasted the answer that explains when trade protection lists are submitted to answer their question.

Also? “Ignore” me. One of the biggest reasons I’ve become abrasive in my posting here is that suddenly everyone is so sensitive that they believe they have a right to censor or silence anything they don’t agree with or don’t want to hear. The world doesn’t work that way, and neither do I.

 

[bleedblue94]

disagree
View attachment 986388
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keep in mind thats all with being on the 4th worst team on the league. he even has a positive +/- somehow

I wish these charts were adjusted to account for strength of players on the ice (teammates and opposition) bc without that a lot of these charts have no context. If the rangers or sabers are playing the oilers then Byram and Schneider are not getting matched up against MCD or Leon, but lindgren with get hit with those matchups all the time. Just like when the charts of lindgren w and wo fox always lack the context that when they are split up lindgren was still used as the matchup d man and fox generally moved to easier matchups. I don't hate analytics, I hate analytics with context that are viewed as bible. I say all of this while also acknowledging that lindgren took a step down this year physically, but I think people will later find out that he was one of the players most affected by all the craziness of this season off the ice. It all played a role. Curious to see what he does with the avs and I also strongly guard against any ideas of trading Schneider. Fox is starting to have more and more injuries hit that very slight frame of his, trading Schneider decimates any rd depth. Trading Schneider now is idiotic if you look at the defense as a whole.

 

[effen]

The Dallas Stars will covet Reilly Smith. It's their best year in a while and they keep losing top players to long term injuries.

Next year's 2nd plus Minnetian, who they'll know having watched BC all season.

They might even have interest in Jones as an add on.

The only thing they need is a vet defenseman who's not Brendan Smith or Mat Dumba (Dumolin seems right for them). Their forwards are still very very deep.

 

[Vitto79]

I’d be floored at this point if Kreider is traded by the end of the week

Why ?
If a team pays donut cause it’s happening in the offseason of not

 

[Leonardo87]

I find it humorous that they’ve won two games in a row and that’s enough of a sample for some to be like “yup, that settles it, the team is better without their Norris defensemen”

the jokes write themselves at this point

Look who they played.

Nuff said…

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

disagree
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keep in mind thats all with being on the 4th worst team on the league. he even has a positive +/- somehow

I mean thats all well and good but -

I understand the intrigue - Size/Skating/Shot combo is legitimate and theres a reason he went as high as he did in his draft year.

He's been a mixed bag at best at the level and thats before getting to the injury concerns. He would be hated from day 1 because he isn't a physical player despite his sturdy build (it's dumb, but it is what it is) and he's not good at all defensively borderline really bad (less dumb and actually problematic.)

Better than Lindgren is not hard to do, but I'd rather have someone who is driving the results on their pair rather than someone who is obviously being propped up by a better (elite) player and falls apart when they have to play with someone else.

 

[Atax]

What are you talking about?

Someone asked “when do players have to submit their trade lists” and I pasted the answer that explains when trade protection lists are submitted to answer their question.

Also? “Ignore” me. One of the biggest reasons I’ve become abrasive in my posting here is that suddenly everyone is so sensitive that they believe they have a right to censor or silence anything they don’t agree with or don’t want to hear. The world doesn’t work that way, and neither do I.

Abrasive? Brother you just posted a message twice the length of any Bern post that was the entire page of the board.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

I wish these charts were adjusted to account for strength of players on the ice (teammates and opposition) bc without that a lot of these charts have no context. If the rangers or sabers are playing the oilers then Byram and Schneider are not getting matched up against MCD or Leon, but lindgren with get hit with those matchups all the time. Just like when the charts of lindgren w and wo fox always lack the context that when they are split up lindgren was still used as the matchup d man and fox generally moved to easier matchups. I don't hate analytics, I hate analytics with context that are viewed as bible. I say all of this while also acknowledging that lindgren took a step down this year physically, but I think people will later find out that he was one of the players most affected by all the craziness of this season off the ice. It all played a role. Curious to see what he does with the avs and I also strongly guard against any ideas of trading Schneider. Fox is starting to have more and more injuries hit that very slight frame of his, trading Schneider decimates any rd depth. Trading Schneider now is idiotic if you look at the defense as a whole.

youre right
Byram plays more minutes than Schneider but less than Lindgren. And its PP time so ton of free zone entries/retrievals etc. it's not a bible

 

[bleedblue94]

youre right
Byram plays more minutes than Schneider but less than Lindgren. And its PP time so ton of free zone entries/retrievals etc. it's not a bible

Byram is that absolutely one of those players that is a giant tease because he has all these tools and skills and you see the flashes but when you watch him regularly with defensive deficiencies really start to stand out. And the idea is to pursue somebody to be paired with Fox you really need somebody that's got some strength that can manage the front of the net because it's been an issue for the Fox lindgren caring for years that they would get out muscled in front of their own net. They both struggled in this area but one of them struggled more than the other, and that one is still here. He needs more help in this way than a Byram. People see towes and makar and think it's that simple, but toews is a legit stud. How good he is gets lost in the shuffle