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Speculation: Roster Building thread - Part XVII - (TDL is March 7th)

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noncents said:
querulous and memeful though you may be, you're not an idiot. what do you think the reason is that we pay full value and give clauses?
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Theories:

1. Laziness - there’s 4 GMs in the entire NHL who have been with one team for 8+ years. The likelihood Drury is around to have to worry about Shesterkin’s NMC in years 5-8 is next to none, so why not just get my guy under contract and let the next guy deal with the fallout?

2. Inexperience - applies to earlier contracts given out. Adam Fox got his contract 5 months after Drury became GM. Probably could have actually gotten some salary suppression given the market had been set by Makar and Fox had publicly played his hand by saying NYR was the only team he would play for. He also gave Goodrow 6 years and a 15 team NTC 2 months into his tenure as GM. We know how that worked out.

3. Skill - Drury is good at some things. He’s been good at identifying solutions to getting contracts off the books and targeting young undervalued pieces with upside in return. I believe that’s what he was trying with Blais too and it was just a miss. We could say that’s a strength. Maybe negotiating salaries against professional agents simply isn’t a strength and some GMs are better at it.

The Panarin contract where he supposedly left money on the table, at least from the Islanders, was signed before he became GM. Same with Kreider.

The Trochek signing, as I’ve very much demonstrated, was largely met with extreme skepticism and it’s only in hindsight because he’s had 2 of the best 3 seasons of his career here that people rewrote history and said he gave us a discount. At the time of the signing he was coming off a 50 point season.

Even Zibanejad, I can argue, got fair market and was not a discount. Same exact age as JT Miller, same exact career points per game, signed the year before (so Miller should get a slight bump for inflation/slight rise in the cap) and Zibanejad got the 8th year while Miller only got 7, yet Zib is higher paid.

But really, I don’t know the answer to your question - that doesn’t make the observation completely invalid and even if you disagree on this contract or that contract it’s splitting hairs; what I’m suggesting isn’t completely off the reservation. It’s not like Mika or Fox signed for 7.5M and I’m over here complaining that Slavin got 6.4M so we need to do better!!! Why doesn’t Drury get a bit more leverage out of NMCs? I don’t know - why does Chiarelli’s name still come up as a legitimate GM candidate sometimes as if nearly the entire world hasn’t formed a consensus that he’s atrocious?
 
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McRanger92 said:
As many of us predicted, the issues in the defense corps don't look nearly as bad without Lindgren here. I dont see the Rangers trading for another defenseman this deadline unless there is too good of an offer to pass up.

I think now, the key move to make would be adding a center like McLeod or Novak. Both guys are on the younger side, under team control. They play with speed and have good shots off the rush. I havent disliked what I've seen from Othmann so far, but he'd be a trade chip for me given how effective Rempe, Edstrom and Berard have looked at the NHL level. Cuylle too has passed him on the depth chart and looks like a bonafide top 6 player. There's only so many spots at wing.
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Cuylle, Kreider, Zib?, Laf, Gabe, Berard, Panarin

We really don’t have room for Othmann unless we get rid of one of our “stars.” He might be best as a PP specialist but he’s never playing over the other guys on the roster. We still have Sykora too.

LokiDog said:
Theories:

1. Laziness - there’s 4 GMs in the entire NHL who have been with one team for 8+ years. The likelihood Drury is around to have to worry about Shesterkin’s NMC in years 5-8 is next to none, so why not just get my guy under contract and let the next guy deal with the fallout?

2. Inexperience - applies to earlier contracts given out. Adam Fox got his contract 5 months after Drury became GM. Probably could have actually gotten some salary suppression given the market had been set by Makar and Fox had publicly played his hand by saying NYR was the only team he would play for. He also gave Goodrow 6 years and a 15 team NTC 2 months into his tenure as GM. We know how that worked out.

3. Skill - Drury is good at some things. He’s been good at identifying solutions to getting contracts off the books and targeting young undervalued pieces with upside in return. I believe that’s what he was trying with Blais too and it was just a miss. We could say that’s a strength. Maybe negotiating salaries against professional agents simply isn’t a strength and some GMs are better at it.

The Panarin contract where he supposedly left money on the table, at least from the Islanders, was signed before he became GM. Same with Kreider.

The Trochek signing, as I’ve demonstrated was largely met with extreme skepticism and it’s only in hindsight because he’s had 2 of the best 3 seasons of his career here that people rewrote history and said he gave us a discount. At the time of the signing he was coming off a 50 point season.

Even Zibanejad, I can argue, got fair market and was not a discount. Same exact age as JT Miller, same exact career points per game, signed the year before (so Miller should get a slight bump for inflation/slight rise in the cap) and Zibanejad got the 8th year while Miller only got 7, yet Zib is higher paid.

But really, I don’t know the answer to your question - that doesn’t make the observation completely invalid and even if you disagree on this contract or that contract it’s splitting hairs; what I’m suggesting isn’t like completely off the reservation. It’s not like Mika or Fox signed for 7.5M and I’m over complaining that Slavin got 6.4M so we need to do better!!! Why doesn’t Drury get a bit more leverage out of NMCs? I don’t know - why does Chiarelli’s name still come up as a legitimate GM candidate sometimes as if nearly the entire world has formed a consensus that he’s atrocious?
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Not caught up in your conversation but isn’t Yzerman supposed to be one of the best GMs and what has Detroit done since he’s been there? Nothing.
 
Chytilmania said:
Cuylle, Kreider, Zib?, Laf, Gabe, Berard, Panarin

We really don’t have room for Othmann unless we get rid of one of our “stars.” He might be best as a PP specialist but he’s never playing over the other guys on the roster. We still have Sykora too.
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Yeah honestly Othmann looks like a guy better suited to play in the top 6. Im not sure he'll ever get that real shot here unless he really lights it up.

Othmann+what for McLeod or Novak? I'm sure it wont be an insignificant add but Drury has done a solid job restocking the picks. I would love to move Kreider for assets because I doubt he waives to go to Buffalo (or Nashville), much that I think the Sabres would love to have him.
 
Chytilmania said:
Cuylle, Kreider, Zib?, Laf, Gabe, Berard, Panarin

We really don’t have room for Othmann unless we get rid of one of our “stars.” He might be best as a PP specialist but he’s never playing over the other guys on the roster. We still have Sykora too.


Not caught up in your conversation but isn’t Yzerman supposed to be one of the best GMs and what has Detroit done since he’s been there? Nothing.
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This is exactly the type of response I mentioned a couple of pages back. We’re not having a conversation about “what we/he/they/them/anyone has ‘done’”. We’re only talking about whether Drury’s use of NMCs in contract negotiations has been effective. I get accused of moving the goalposts but asking what the Red Wings have achieved has absolutely nothing to do with the conversation that’s taking place. I’m also pretty sure that most of the hockey world has turned on Yzerman as being some great GM because after leaving a tremendous Tampa team that he mostly inherited, he hasn’t done anything, so I believe the reputation you’re attributing him is pretty outdated.
 
I’m kind of intrigued of having
JTM
Bennett
Trocheck

Down the middle. The window wouldn’t be big window but that’s a solid group for 3-4 years. Ideally we start targeting centers in the draft
 
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Oscar Lindberg said:
I find it humorous that they’ve won two games in a row and that’s enough of a sample for some to be like “yup, that settles it, the team is better without their Norris defensemen”

the jokes write themselves at this point
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? is not if they are better off w/w'out Fox or any other player, but what assets would that guy return in a deal, and is that enuf of a profit to justify moving?
In case of e.g., Fox, also if diminishing returns as to wear and tear while he ages...
 
duhmetreE said:
I’m kind of intrigued of having
JTM
Bennett
Trocheck

Down the middle. The window wouldn’t be big but that’s a solid group for 3-4 years
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Prefer to go younger but adding Bennett to what Drury and this roster have percolating would be very fun. It does feel like chasing someone we've seen the best from though. I think Bennett is destined for Edmonton. He's a close friend of McDavid and it feels like the Oilers need that final piece up front.

Would Florida trade Bennett before Friday like rantanen? They've shown to be pretty good at re-signing the free agents they actually want to keep.
 
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When a player has a limited NTC does he submit the list of teams at the time of signing the contract or is it done before each season? I am thinking the NYR asked 20 for his list at the beginning of this season and it caused him to check out.
 
McRanger92 said:
Would Florida trade Bennett before Friday like rantanen? They've shown to be pretty good at re-signing the free agents they actually want to keep.
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Unless they actually trade Bennett for Rantanen or something, I doubt it. Panthers are very much in the apex of their cup window, the allure of using Bennet as their own rental has to be there in some form.
 
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cheech70 said:
When a player has a limited NTC does he submit the list of teams at the time of signing the contract or is it done before each season? I am thinking the NYR asked 20 for his list at the beginning of this season and it caused him to check out.
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It’s unclear and apparently varies from player to player:

“The timing of submitting the teams on a No Trade list is negotiated in the contract, and can be at any date or any process. The most common is for it to be submitted July 1 each year, but any date can be used, or it could be required to be submitted when the team requests it.”
 
McRanger92 said:
Prefer to go younger but adding Bennett to what Drury and this roster have percolating would be very fun. It does feel like chasing someone we've seen the best from though. I think Bennett is destined for Edmonton. He's a close friend of McDavid and it feels like the Oilers need that final piece up front.

Would Florida trade Bennett before Friday like rantanen? They've shown to be pretty good at re-signing the free agents they actually want to keep.
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Panarin w/ retention for Bennett ( assuming a contract extension can be worked out, no rental ) Samoskevich, Benning
 
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duhmetreE said:
Kreider for Byram

Buffalo wants players. Is Buffalo on his No Trade list?
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That’s a pipe dream but hope I’m super wrong lol

I’d think Buffalo isn’t blocked since it’s the state of NY but we are only guessing

Would trade Jones in the deal if Buffalo needs a LD back
 
duhmetreE said:
Kreider for Byram

Buffalo wants players. Is Buffalo on his No Trade list?
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Likely. It’s a 15 team. That’s usually most of the teams like Calgary/wpg/“arizona”
Which aren’t destination teams.
so you’re probably looking at only playoff teams and teams in prime locations.
I would imagine nj/islanders are both not blocked because it’s unlikely we would trade with them for a multi year contract.
 
Panarin-trocheck-laf
Cuylle-JT-Mika
Parssinen-McLeod-Brodzinski
Berard-Carrick-Rempe

Vaak-Fox
Miller-Borgen
Jones-Schneider
de Haan
 
LokiDog said:
Maybe I’m confused about what “moving the goal posts” means, but me saying ‘why do we have so many NMCs’ (which was never actually what I said, just how you’re representing it - read on before a response, please? I’m being fairly calm, polite and rational) and being answered with a generalization about all clauses, and then following back with ‘great, I asked about NMCs’ is very, very literally me keeping the goal posts firmly in place. It was also, from my very first post, ‘why aren’t we getting better salary suppression out of the NMCs we hand out since we’re also a place so many players WANT to play’. Other posters who didn’t want to answer the ACTUAL question I asked came back with responses like “we have a normal number of clauses” which led to the “okay, but I was specifically asking about NMCs” side quest that took place. I’ll let you go look - MY first post on the topic was very clearly “if we’re such a desired place to play, why don’t we get as much bargaining power out of the NMCs we hand out compared to other teams who are supposedly less desirable destinations”. It was never unclear. The responses were conflated, the question never changed. Maybe one of the reasons I get so abrasive is that when I ask a very clear question, I get condescending answers that aren’t actually addressing the question.

When I say “if NY is such a destination, why don’t we do a better job exchanging NMCs for better AAVs, as in the case of some other franchises” and someone dismissively says “we have a normal number of (all) clauses” in response, maybe that’s why my subsequent responses get more and more agitated. You’re (not you) mischaracterizing my entire question and acting like you just gave me the most obvious answer in the world, like I shouldn’t have even been silly enough to ask it. I never asked how the number of total clauses on our roster compared to other teams… your (not yours) answer is completely irrelevant, and yet I’m being characterized as the dumb one when you (not you) aren’t even displaying reading comprehension with the response you’ve given. It’s sort of annoying.

Also, Full-NTC or NMC, Buch is a good example of teams getting salary suppression on a good player. No one has even attempted to explain how Fox (saying it’s a good contract - which it is, I’ve stated that, and it’s aging well with a rising cap - but it’s not RELEVANT to the question I’m asking or the discussion of the moment in time that it was signed) only wanting to play in NY and getting a half million bump over the only comparable player at the time is a discount. What was Fox going to do? Sign somewhere else? And then what? Demand a trade to NY?

Fox’s contract might be fair, but there’s no salary suppression or discount at all. Slavin is a star player giving his team a deal because he wants to be there in exchange for security. Again, I’m not criticizing Fox or even saying that his contract isn’t great value now. I’m not trying to say he’s some jerk for not giving us a huge discount like Slavin did. I’m only discussing whether DRURY effectively negotiates the best deals. That’s all. I’m not picking on any of our favorite players. I’m not saying Fox is overpaid or doesn’t deserve or isn’t worth the cap hit. I’m just saying with quite a bit of leverage at his disposal, did Drury REALLY get any salary suppression? We’ll get to Trochek in a second.

Igor’s contract is an abortion. And as far as Trochek goes? As I said previously, the SAME posters saying he gave us a discount today were saying “gross, the term is insane, I hope there’s no NMC” when the deal was signed. No one expected him to come here and have 2 career years. Saying it’s a steal now is PURE revisionist history when he was coming off of a 51 point aeason when we signed him.

View attachment 986129
That’s your first post in the Trochek signing thread. Here’s some from our friends:

View attachment 986058View attachment 986059View attachment 986060View attachment 986061View attachment 986062View attachment 986063View attachment 986064View attachment 986065View attachment 986066View attachment 986067

And a pretty rational one from some idiot:
View attachment 986068
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Back to the original debate, from my perspective it’s incredibly difficult to gain insight on a GM’s negotiating ability, due to the nuanced details of specific players. We can certainly gain insight by comparing, but only to a point.

Your theory is absolutely correct in that an NMC is a form of compensation that the team has at its discretion to offer a player. I think that type of compensation can sometimes, as you point out, “buy down” an AAV. I do however think that the NMC sometimes, depending on player and situation, can be a non-negotiable, table stakes offering that’s not even up for debate, if the competition to sign said player is very high. All the high end players just get them, no matter what.

I agree with your sentiment in general that it doesn’t seem like the Rangers are afforded some of the “discounts” other teams get on some top players. This predates Drury quite obviously. Players want to play here, we should have some leverage in that regard.

All that said, each player and each situation is incredibly nuanced. Slavins situation is different from Fox, etc. I don’t think we should ever expect a discount on star players, as their leverage is simply too high. Fox was 23 years old and had already won a Norris trophy, a feat that is incredibly difficult to attain at such a young age. Makar was definitely the comp at the time - although he had not yet won a Norris trophy at the time. Rangers brass would absolutely consider the salary as a % of total cap at the time, with the understanding that this % would become more favorable over time as the cap increased. So I would also say it’s fair to say - with a rising cap today it looks like a fair deal…teams can and should project what that looks like when considering any contract. I don’t think he took a massive hometown discount, but I also don’t think you would necessarily benefit from treating a 23 year old Norris trophy winner like “hey you only want to play here so here’s a massive discount you need to take otherwise we’re going to walk”. That seems like bad business - it wasn’t an over or underpayment, it was a seemingly fair contract. And again, with a player of his pedigree and star power, NMC is more table stakes than negotiating leverage.
 
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TheGortonConspiracy said:
Injured Kreider on a huge decline for a young top 4 Defenseman. Lol. You wouldn’t even get a no thanks they would just hang up the phone
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Buffalo needs playoff tested veterans with term. No one will sign there on the open market. The most likely reason we are hearing McLeod and Byram's names in trade rumors are probably because they have no intention of re-signing their long-term. Both guys were on Western Conference Stanley Cup contenders. Players are going to use their power. Sadly, Im assuming Kreider will reject any trade to Buffalo.
 
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