Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XV (Light em up!)

[Machinehead]

Isn't Festivus the Monday before Christmas? Why are we suddenly doing the airing of grievances now, and in this thread?
Not that I'm against it, just curious

Well if we're airing grievances, RangerBoy is going to send me to the moon if he types one more sentence fragment.

 

[nyr2k2]

Well if we're airing grievances, RangerBoy is going to send me to the moon if he types one more sentence fragment.

Good poster. Knows a lot of the connections. People joked he was Brooks, but he's not. Who is making the jokes now? Doesn't post as much. When he does it's interesting.

 

[mike14]

Good poster. Knows a lot of the connections. People joked he was Brooks, but he's not. Who is making the jokes now? Doesn't post as much. When he does it's interesting.

you forgot to mention which assistant GM his agent used to work with...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Ed is a pain in the ass but a lovable one who also doesn't take himself too seriously. He's a-ok in my book.

User Pavel Buchnevich tried to pretend he's an expert on every prospect on the planet. You could be like, PB, what's your take on Doofie Gribelsborg, currently playing in the German third division? And he'd tell you he has excellent puck skills but needs to work on his edges and his stride, probably an AHLer but could make it as a 3LW if things break right for him. He's totally full of shit and thinks his "evaluations" are infallible. HFNYR got a lot better when he ran off to the main board.

I will be honest, he used to be a top 2 least favorite poster for me but I think he matured. I have a feeling he's now in his mid 20s and was that arrogant schmuck when he was like 19. Just my guess but I feel like he's a lot more chill now and more humble.

 

[JohnC]

I don't think so. Pavel Buchnevich takes his opinion very seriously and thinks he's an expert. Ed Jovo has weird takes that he clearly doesn't take seriously and some of his more serious takes are more WWE than NHL. But he's very different than the self styled scout Pavel Buchnevich. Also, I used to dislike PB but I've seen growth in his posts and don't cringe anymore. Wouldn't mind him back here.

Also, I was 100% sure you were going to say that Bern is a much more appreciated member of this board than me, lol.

Now that we have a goalie that I don’t care for, you and I finally have something in common SB. You’re now a treasure too.

 

[MrAlmost]

Well if we're airing grievances, RangerBoy is going to send me to the moon if he types one more sentence fragment.

I am so happy I'm not the only one that noticed. Haha

 

[Alluckks]

A 2nd round pick only has a 34% chance of even being an NHL regular. Half of the NHL regulars are below average.

I'd absolutely do that for Lindgren, because I'm not all that interested in seeing him play for this team at all.

If Borgen continues his play from the last few games, he might be somebody I'm interested in bringing back.

Borgen was with the Sabres and Kraken for his career so far. No reason he can't have a Stalman like turnaround with the Rangers now. Rangers have had a number of guys come in a bring life into their otherwise rather underwhelming careers.

He's the total package in terms of an attractive deadline offer.

He's actually good, he's got intangibles that he can actually back up, and he's also got intangibles that you can spin (he's a #veteran now!)

Reilly Smith is everything that people wished Motte was

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I will be honest, he used to be a top 2 least favorite poster for me but I think he matured. I have a feeling he's now in his mid 20s and was that arrogant schmuck when he was like 19. Just my guess but I feel like he's a lot more chill now and more humble.

Jovo is a meme but he’s funny sometimes and at the least when people give him shit, he’s probably laughing as much as anyone. His uncle is also a legend.

Poster PB is way way way worse.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

We also aren't comparing them at the same ages/stage of development when we talk about what year in the league they were. for instance Buch scored 20pts in 41 games in his D+4 (his first NHL season) and Kakko scored a comparable 40pts in 82 games in his D+4. Buch had a much better D+5 than KK, while Kakko had a major knee injury. Their D+6's Buch scored 0.59PPg Kakko is currently at 0.54PPG overall, but 0.75PPG with Seattle. We will have to see if he maintains that.
The real difference is that Buch was way more accomplished by the time he was traded. Kakko may or may not be similarly accomplished at 25 (the season after which we traded Buch), but the fact is he was NOT as accomplished as Buch when dealt.

I definitely wouldnt shit on anyone making the comparison, I think it was bad and they will regret it. Kakko is averaging 16 min per game in SEA which is higher than any NYR season and also had a career high 20:28 last game

 

[Savant]

I definitely wouldnt shit on anyone making the comparison, I think it was bad and they will regret it. Kakko is averaging 16 min per game in SEA which is higher than any NYR season and also had a career high 20:28 last game

Is it just me or has Cuylle (especially offensively) cratered since Kakko left

 

[bernmeister]

Is it just me or has Cuylle (especially offensively) cratered since Kakko left

wouldn't say 'cratered' but yeah def see a drop off
hope it is just a slump/chemistry issue

 

[mike14]

Is it just me or has Cuylle (especially offensively) cratered since Kakko left

Points wide? Yeah, absolutely. But his shots have remained about the same (24 in 12 before KK left, 23 in 12 since).
His shooting % was always unsustainable so a rut was going to happen at some stage.
I do think he and Mika were finding each other quite well in the last game, they were unlucky not to get a goal or two.

 

[haohmaru]

Was that the longest Bern post ever? Word count? Holy crap.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Do you guys remember when Ryan Spooner was scoring like crazy when he was traded to us? Why do people fall for these small sample sizes especially after trades when players are extra motivated? Honest to God, if Kakko was drafted in the second round this wouldn't be anywhere near a big deal. A 3rd liner for an upgrade on D and two picks sounds fair to me.

 

[Machinehead]

Borgen was with the Sabres and Kraken for his career so far. No reason he can't have a Stalman like turnaround with the Rangers now. Rangers have had a number of guys come in a bring life into their otherwise rather underwhelming careers.

Yeah, the Kraken low-key suck. Everyone fawned over their team that beat Colorado by accident but that was just hockey being random.

Reilly Smith is everything that people with Motte was

Don't get me started on Motte. That guy had the most do-nothing speed I've ever seen.

He made Hagelin look like Gretzky in terms of applying a cogent gameplan.

Motte is a fine enough NHL 4th liner and a great penalty killer because of his ability to skate, but he's so hard to watch. Most of the time he just zooms forward. That's it. That was the entire plan. I'm not doing anything with the puck, I'm not really going anywhere particular, I'm just going vroom vroom.

 

[kovazub94]

Peter Baugh wrote an article for The Athletic where he projected what our guys might get.

For Lindgren, he said he might be worth a 2nd to a desperate team. He mentioned EJ and Edmundson and that we could possibly retain. Also said a 2nd is probably higher than they'd get.

For Reilly Smith he pegged it as a 3rd or 4th. Mentioned Duclair deal and Jack Roslovic last year.

For Vesey he said it's probably a 5th or 6th. He mentioned guys like Pat Maroon and Anthony Beauvillier as comps.

On Will Borgen, he said the team has a dilemma as he's probably the most valuable player but they also want to bring him back. He didn't specificy a return but based on what he said for others, you'd think a second or more.

Jones he said doesn't have much value on the market.

Vaakanainen he compared to Ruhwedel and said he may be worth a 4th or around there. He also said the Rangers might want to hold onto him.

Everyone be reasonable with their expectations for these guys if they are moved. Borgen I agree is the most valuable and the rest aren't worth much.

All of these are reasonable even if somewhat marginally conservative estimates. Did he say anything about Miller or Kreider?

A 2nd round pick only has a 34% chance of even being an NHL regular. Half of the NHL regulars are below average.

Sure about it - seems too high

 

[Machinehead]

Do you guys remember when Ryan Spooner was scoring like crazy when he was traded to us? Why do people fall for these small sample sizes especially after trades when players are extra motivated? Honest to God, if Kakko was drafted in the second round this wouldn't be anywhere near a big deal. A 3rd liner for an upgrade on D and two picks sounds fair to me.

Fun fact: Ryan Spooner was 27th in the league that year in p/60!

We've seen this before with Kakko. He's "turning the corner" and then he cools off and he's back to being Kaapo Kakko.

He's shooting 22% since he got to the Kraken. Shooting percentage, as you know, is undefeated.

All of these are reasonable even if somewhat marginally conservative estimates. Did he say anything about Miller or Kreider?


Sure about it - seems too high

The data I looked at defined an NHL player as having played at least 99 games, which is a pretty low bar. You're not wrong.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Fun fact: Ryan Spooner was 27th in the league that year in p/60!

We've seen this before with Kakko. He's "turning the corner" and then he cools off and he's back to being Kaapo Kakko.

He's shooting 22% since he got to the Kraken. Shooting percentage, as you know, is undefeated.

The data I looked at defined an NHL player as having played at least 99 games, which is a pretty low bar. You're not wrong.

Look I for one think that Kappo Kaako will continue shooting at a rate that's exceed's Ovechkin's career rate by like 6 percentage points.

Though, does the 22% count the empty net?

 

[UnSandvich]

Is it just me or has Cuylle (especially offensively) cratered since Kakko left

Points wide? Yeah, absolutely. But his shots have remained about the same (24 in 12 before KK left, 23 in 12 since).
His shooting % was always unsustainable so a rut was going to happen at some stage.
I do think he and Mika were finding each other quite well in the last game, they were unlucky not to get a goal or two.

In 31 games to start the season, Cuylle was putting up HDCF at a rate of 5.98/60, top on the team by .8/60. Since the Kakko trade he's fallen to 5th on the team with a rate of 4.29. So over 1.5 HDCF fewer per 60 mins.

Chytil saw a similar albeit not as steep drop off, from 3rd with 4.38 HDCF/60 to 9th with 3.65 HDCF/60.

Unsurprising their production's tapered off a bit.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

In 31 games to start the season, Cuylle was putting up HDCF at a rate of 5.98/60, top on the team by .8/60. Since the Kakko trade he's fallen to 5th on the team with a rate of 4.29. So over 1.5 HDCF fewer per 60 mins.

Chytil saw a similar albeit not as steep drop off, from 3rd with 4.38 HDCF/60 to 9th with 3.65 HDCF/60.

Unsurprising their production's tapered off a bit.

But Cuylle is not playing with Chytil either. So it's not those two on separate lines. I think that line worked well together. But also like Kakko didn't play particularly well on any other line, maybe in the playoffs on the kid line briefly. So it's not like he's some superpower.

 

[Machinehead]

Look I for one thing that Kappo Kaako will continue shooting at a rate that's exceed's Ovechkin's career rate by like 6 percentage points.

Though, does the 22% count the empty net?

Yes.

So he's shooting more like 17.6 on goaltenders.

That's still a hotter than average Ovechkin. Actually that 22 would beat Ovechkin by 9 points. Ovechkin can obviously rip it but he's a volume guy.

For more context, Brayden Point has the highest all-time sustained shooting percentage of players who started their careers this century, somehow sustaining a 19% over 617 NHL games. Most modern players top out in 16's, and these are your elite goal-scorers.

Point and Draisaitl are the only players from the 21st century in the top 50 all-time. Goaltending before Patrick Roy was basically trying to kung fu the puck and it shows.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Do you guys remember when Ryan Spooner was scoring like crazy when he was traded to us? Why do people fall for these small sample sizes especially after trades when players are extra motivated? Honest to God, if Kakko was drafted in the second round this wouldn't be anywhere near a big deal. A 3rd liner for an upgrade on D and two picks sounds fair to me.

In this case the individual shooting percentage is high but the underlying profile and process looks great. His on ice sh% is modest, he's getting better as he goes and gets more minutes and more familiar with his linemates. And he's a young, former 2nd overall pick that had a floor of a good 3rd liner when he was moved. Of course Kakko could still faceplant, but it's not meaningless that he has done the opposite so far, and many saw it coming a mile away...

Just to put it another way: if Kakko were shooting at his NYR career average he'd have 2 goals on a goalie instead of 3. I'm not seeing the insane shooting bender narrative here.

Is it possible you're the one fixated on boxscore stats to tell a story that they can't really do for their sample size?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

In this case the individual shooting percentage is high but the underlying profile and process looks great. His on ice sh% is modest, he's getting better as he goes and gets more minutes and more familiar with his linemates. And he's a young, former 2nd overall pick that had a floor of a good 3rd liner when he was moved. Of course Kakko could still faceplant, but it's not meaningless that he has done the opposite so far, and many saw it coming a mile away...

Is it possible you're the one fixated on boxscore stats to tell a story that they can't really do for their sample size?

I'm not the one fixated on the sample size. It's the people creaming over themselves every time he gets a point that should worry about sample size.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Is it possible you're the one fixated on boxscore stats to tell a story that they can't really do for their sample size?

Snowblind being hyper fixated on something?? No he would never

 

[TominNC]

Jovo is a meme but he’s funny sometimes and at the least when people give him shit, he’s probably laughing as much as anyone. His uncle is also a legend.

Poster PB is way way way worse.

Are we allowed to say people are on the ignore list? I forget if that's a rule. Let's just say I don't read anything Jovo or Bern post.