Speculation: Roster Building thread: Part XIX (Thanks, Sam)

[McRanger92]

My point is that any grading system is flawed when they actually didn't design success around guys like Laf and Cuylle. So, Cuylle had a bit more success. Whoopee. The system was designed for the vets and everyone else was playing against a stacked system that didn't favor them.

Spot on. There was no better example the veterans being catered to than the power play. Mika plays for one timers. Kreider plays for tips. Fox never shoots. Panarin looks for kreider and Mika. trocheck in the bumper because its the only open position. Rinse repeat for 82 games with no success.

 

[nsvoyageurs]

MSG and the Rangers do not try to grow the game.

Not a single Ranger is heard on a podcast, fan or credentialed media. I don't know if any of them have been on Spitin Chicklets. I haven't heard a player on WFAN this year. Vince had to circumvent that last year by playing interviews he recorded in the locker room on his show. But I don't think he's done that this year, which makes me believe he got his hand slapped.

I don't understand the fear MSG and Rangers brass clearly have for this.

Do the Knicks operate the same way? Don't two of them have a podcast in which even Dolan was on himself?

This franchise is horribly run from top to bottom in every which way both on and off the ice.

The team, being in the largest media market in the world, need to be selling their product (well, maybe not this season's product LOL) and the game itself. The NHL is too reliant on gate revenues to miss out on other opportunities to help themselves. I know the hockey culture stipulates that players don't do or say anything publicly, spew nothing but cliches, but this biting the hand that feeds them; it's short sighted and small minded; the players, team and the NHL itself are doing themselves a disservice by the silence/reluctance to promote themselves. It also spits in the face of their fan base, who want to know what's going on.

 

[kovazub94]

My point is that any grading system is flawed when they actually didn't design success around guys like Laf and Cuylle. So, Cuylle had a bit more success. Whoopee. The system was designed for the vets and everyone else was playing against a stacked system that didn't favor them.

This is just not the case. Every year for the last 4-5 years the Rangers had a talent gap in top-6 at RW and Laf and Kakko performance failures were the culprits that Drury was forced to address via TDL acquisitions again and again. Chytil's health was his issue. KAM was locked into top-4 essentially from the get go. You'd have to go to pre-Laf and Kakko to find prospects who didn't get opportunities but every single one of them outside of Howden have been huge failures everywhere

 

[Alluckks]

What would be the rush then to give him 7-year deal?

Teams like Buffalo want a player with term, because otherwise most of the time a player won’t want to extend there

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Confession of a Former Permabuild.
I will start this post off with a long overdue apology to @cwede.
Three seasons ago Chris Drury extended Jimmy Vesey and I lost my mind. I went on the Vesey tread and railed against the signing. Cwede tried talking me off the ledge by explaining an organization can't play all rookies and why, but I'd have none of it.
Shortly after @nyr2k2 posted on the Roster Building thread that AHL.TV (now FloSports) was having a half year sale. I had the time and luckily the money to subscribe. I've learned over the 2 and 1/2 years that young players need to be given the opportunity and time to learn how to play at the NHL level. They need to be surrounded by veterans who have compete and Character.
With most of the Hartford Wolf Pack games there is only a one camera setup. For me this is a plus. With only the one camera I'm able to not only see the play but because of the zoomed out picture I'm also able to watch what players are doing away from the puck. Over this time I was able to see why players like Edstrom, Rempe and Berard were ready to be given a shot and why players like Othmann and Robertson were not. Though I will admit that Othmann has definitely addressed of my concerns I had about his willingness to go to the dirty area's. Now it is jus a matter of "Talent".
Though the bar is pretty low, Matt Robertson has finally started to make strides, yet it maybe too late.
This season the Wolf Pack group is in shambles. They went from a well structured North/South system under Knoblauch and the Smith to total disarray. I can't say if it is the fault of the new Head Coach or if they've been forced to play Lavioleete's system. either way this is not a good environment to developed players. Looking forward I believe that Roobroreck should get a chance to play next season as well as Garand and that Chmelar has the talent but needs more discipline.
Last point. The last two Stanley Cup winners were not built through the draft. Florida's cup roster had only four drafted players and one of them was traded away and brought back. Vegas had three.
When a player gets to the pro level it usually means they have skill(s). Isn't the separation then between winners and losers their character and desire?

 

[Mugless]

What would be the rush then to give him 7-year deal?

Drury isn't particularly good at his job.

 

[Mike in Houston]

Since the other thread was "closed".

LOL

 

[bhamill]

I know what the dumb little square tiles are based on.

What's Cuylle's offensive rating? He's outscoring Laf by 2 points per 60 in even less time.

If it's per 60 how is "even less time" relevant?

 

[Machinehead]

Advanced stats matter until they don't, right?

The variables have to be explained and align with known data.

Lafreniere played 95 minutes on the powerplay last year. Of the 143 players who played less than that, 90 of them scored at a higher rate.

Where are they?

 

[Machinehead]

If it's per 60 how is "even less time" relevant?

It's not.

"Share of team's powerplay time" is shoehorned in to make it look more favorable.

 

[Machinehead]

My point is that any grading system is flawed when they actually didn't design success around guys like Laf and Cuylle. So, Cuylle had a bit more success. Whoopee. The system was designed for the vets and everyone else was playing against a stacked system that didn't favor them.

In the "system designed for vets" Lafreniere was handed a top six job to start every season of his career.

He's done nothing to earn more time on a powerplay that, up until this year, was good.

Would I try him on it now that it's ass? I guess. Why not?

The point is, we need to stop bringing up opportunities with this guy. He was handed more than he earned.

 

[bhamill]

The variables have to be explained and align with known data.

Lafreniere played 95 minutes on the powerplay last year. Of the 143 players who played less than that, 90 of them scored at a higher rate.

Where are they?

Another variable is how long were their powerplay shifts? If you get 30-40 secs at a time odds are you aren't scoring. Is that what the 90 of them had? Where did the shifts start? O zone or not the O zone? Were they on the first unit with prime talent and an actual PP QB, or on the second unit? Those are variables that could use explaining, no?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

His stumbles were defensive responsibilities. but I strongly believe our coaches would have given Stutzle a bigger leash and PP 1 time here because of his skating and play-making ability. The argument on how short our leash it for young players, or how we don't develop youth and went with vets, vets, vets is a different argument.

Our coaches give vets a long leash, the kids can't make any mistakes, I dont see Stutzle becoming this good in ny, nobody does, Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil, nobody, the franchise is and kid killer.

 

[McRanger92]

Since the other thread was "closed".

LOL

It's all fun and games until you realize Dolan is going to hire whoever replaces them

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Kakko went from 2 points/60 to 1.80 points/60. Nothing changed. He just played more.

You say tomayto i say tomaaaaato... he's playing more and getting more points

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I’m at the point with Laffy where I think he could get better to where he’ll be in that 60 point range consistently but I’m not expecting the upside that was promised pre-draft

If the Rangers could move him for a clear upgrade I’d consider it. But I’d almost just rather ride it out and see what happens

Certainly not writing him off but he’s probably close to what he is at this point

 

[tiggles]

The variables have to be explained and align with known data.

Lafreniere played 95 minutes on the powerplay last year. Of the 143 players who played less than that, 90 of them scored at a higher rate.

Where are they?

So do you understand all the variables that go into xGAR in the Evolving Hockey charts you post?

And known data in this case just seems to be "points." If we could just look at points to see how good or bad a player is offensively, then we can do away with analytics.

 

[will1066]

This is just not the case. Every year for the last 4-5 years the Rangers had a talent gap in top-6 at RW and Laf and Kakko performance failures were the culprits that Drury was forced to address via TDL acquisitions again and again. Chytil's health was his issue. KAM was locked into top-4 essentially from the get go. You'd have to go to pre-Laf and Kakko to find prospects who didn't get opportunities but every single one of them outside of Howden have been huge failures everywhere

I guess you can say that they had opportunities. If it had worked out, of course there'd be nothing to discuss. But every young guy was rejected like a bad organ transplant and the coaching staffs were quick to pull the plug and demote the kid RW outta there because, for instance, Panarin said playing with Kakko was worse than seeing Bobrovsky shirtless. None of them lasted long in that RW spot.

 

[Machinehead]

Another variable is how long were their powerplay shifts? If you get 30-40 secs at a time odds are you aren't scoring. Is that what the 90 of them had? Where did the shifts start? O zone or not the O zone? Were they on the first unit with prime talent and an actual PP QB, or on the second unit? Those are variables that could use explaining, no?

I don't know where these numbers are but somebody posted usage analytics for first and second units, and the Rangers pretty much graded in the middle of the league. This was late last year.

They use their second unit the way the median team uses their second unit. The idea that we use our second unit differently or give them less opportunities, in a way that is unique compared to other teams, has always been Lafreniere apologism.

That passes the eye test for how I've watched most teams use their PP2.

 

[Machinehead]

So do you understand all the variables that go into xGAR in the Evolving Hockey charts you post?

And known data in this case just seems to be "points." If we could just look at points to see how good or bad a player is offensively, then we can do away with analytics.

I just want to know where "offensive rating" comes from and how it can be such a positive outlier when the player is objectively not good at producing.

Points still matter.

 

[Machinehead]

I can count the time on ice Brett Berard has played for the Rangers in my head using "Mississippi's" and he's done more to impress me in that time than Lafreniere has in five years.

And we're absolutely f***ing Berard around for no reason. Again, I think it's true that we f*** around young players and also some of them just aren't very good.

I think Othmann is simultaneously getting f***ed around and just not very good, although that's an early assessment and there's still time there.

 

[LokiDog]

Our coaches give vets a long leash, the kids can't make any mistakes, I dont see Stutzle becoming this good in ny, nobody does, Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil, nobody, the franchise is and kid killer.

I only buy the Rangers poor development up until a point. Stutzle may have taken an extra couple years but he’d be a point per game player here, no doubt. There isn’t a thing on an ice rink that Kakko or Lafreniere do as well as Stutzle. Kakko is better defensively, Laf is a wash. They don’t pass, skate, shoot, hit, stick handle, cycle, transition or even breath as well as Stutzle. Even with better deployment AND specialized coaching, neither of them has the skill to be considered in the same breath 6 years later. Which just begs the question of what the hell 32 teams pay dozens of scouts very rich salaries to do so poorly to begin with.

 

[bhamill]

I don't know where these numbers are but somebody posted usage analytics for first and second units, and the Rangers pretty much graded in the middle of the league. This was late last year.

They use their second unit the way the median team uses their second unit. The idea that we use our second unit differently or give them less opportunities, in a way that is unique compared to other teams, has always been Lafreniere apologism.

That passes the eye test for how I've watched most teams use their PP2.

Fair, but I didn't SAY our second unit was used differently. I'm saying not all powerplay time is created equal. For instance: Just because someone had less powerplay time than Laf doesn't mean they had a worse opportunity. If you get one 90sec PP shift starting in the O zone I'm willing to bet your chances of scoring are way better than getting 4 30 second PP shifts all starting outside of it. The better opportunity is the 1:30 single shift as opposed to the 2:00 broken into 4...

 

[will1066]

I tend to be in agreement with the view that Laf is not a big enough talent to play above institutional barriers, but a better org in place might squeeze more production out of him. In the end, I consider him a bust.

I'm not an apologist for him.

 

[Machinehead]

Fair, but I didn't SAY our second unit was used differently. I'm saying not all powerplay time is created equal. For instance: Just because someone had less powerplay time than Laf doesn't mean they had a worse opportunity. If you get one 90sec PP shift starting in the O zone I'm willing to bet your chances of scoring are way better than getting 4 30 second PP shifts all starting outside of it. The better opportunity is the 1:30 single shift as opposed to the 2:00 broken into 4...

Most second unit shifts are going to be on the fly. Most shifts are in general. Every on the fly shift is starting after the other team clears. The only guaranteed zone start is the start of the powerplay.

If PP2 does get a start here and there, it's probably pretty negligible. Over large samples, guys with similar TOI are seeing similar types of usage.