From the Igor thread:
An elite goalie will probably get you a few more scratch off tickets by making sure you always get to the playoffs, likely winning a bunch of games along the way that you had no business even getting a point in… and then probably help you steal a series or two, and probably make those look closer than they were as well. But ultimately it’s a Kane/Toews/Keith plus a supporting cast and Crawford. A Sid/Geno/Letang plus some support and Matt Murray or Fleury (more known as a ‘good guy’ who was pretty good consistently for a long time than ever being spectacular). The Ovie/Backstrom/Carlsson and a supporting cast with Holtby. Even Kopitar/Brown/Doughty with good depth and Quick. Recently Vegas with anyone they can find in net. You’re better off with a goalie who is in the 10-20 range than paying 1C money for a top 3 goalie. A top 10 center and top 25 goalie is more valuable than having a top 3 goalie and a top C that’s outside of the top 20 range. For half a minute we thought Zib was in that 10-20 range.
It’s almost impossible that we will acquire a genuine 1C before Panarin’s contract expires. It was supposed to be Zibanejad/Panarin/Fox and a supporting cast of Kreider, Trouba, Trochek a once very reliable Lindgren, and a very promising cast of youth in Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Miller and Schneider.
Lafreniere came around much slower than you’d want from a 1OA, especially with the timing for this core. He’s still not fully found his game.
Kakko, to this point - while a useful player who is learning to consistently be effective - is also disappointing relative to the way his draft position interacts with the timeline of this core.
Chytil also came along a bit slower than one might’ve hoped but mostly has been a victim of injuries. Regardless, his absences have also aligned poorly with the window of contention for this group.
Miller’s been up and down; this year has been maybe his worst. Schneider has been mostly positive. I think Trochek could bounce back if the rest of the team was more hungry too - he seems to be “infected” by the apathy or mopiness of the rest of the vets. Bread’s consistently been fine, all things considered. I’ve hated his playoffs but he’s been a nonstop producer and still has a motor of sorts. Lindy gave all he could, but he’s just toast even earlier than anyone could have predicted. Fox already seems to have lost half a step due to wear and tear/playing through some injuries and seems to also be a little “infected” with the mopes. Kreider has had a rough year, but there’s a lot going on with this group and I feel like he’s always meant to have been a supporting cast type; I’m 50/50 on him - he may need to go to fully reset the room.
However, the biggest issues have been:
1. The three kids arriving a lot slower than the true window arrived (hindsight: Bread’s been one of the best players in the world and we completely wasted his tenure which simultaneously ruined our rebuild, whoops)
2. The Trouba contract ending up being worse than anyone probably thought it would be, plus Fox got a huge extension almost immediately after, and Trouba never reached his WPG peak again
3. Mika Zibanejad being the type of 1C this model would have worked for, for all of a half of a season, in the Covid year before his extension, and never truly being the same since we came back for the bubble play-in
At first we talked about “long Covid” after he followed the bubble embarrassment with a poor start the next year. I think there was some lingering concussion theories? Somewhere along the line he became a big enough PP weapon to offset his initial 5v5 decline, and our PP was truly lethal, which masked some of his shortcomings temporarily.
Then slow starts became the norm but there was “Mika March” to look forward to, when he would get hot, and even score a timely goal or two in the playoffs. But each year he has gotten less and less effective - 5v5, 5v4, 4v5, every facet of his game, to the point where he is simply a Michael Grabner type of player being asked to play a Sidney Crosby role.
Mika Zibanejad was the wrong center. This team has never had a truly, truly elite 1C in their prime. I know the NYR are just too big of a business to ever do it, but I would so much rather somehow have the next Bedard or Celebrini or even a crack at a Kent Johnson or Adam Fantilli. Even though I know we just had those type of picks…
It’s truly a cruel fate - Lafreniere + Kakko + Chytil + Miller + our 1st wouldn’t land us Jack Hughes or Tim Stutzle today. It’s popular to belittle those guys here but that’s pure bias. They’re both basically franchise centers as relative children already. We never have had one. I would trade a Shesterkin, or even Lundqvist - 10/10 times at this point to see this team built from center instead of from net.
Elite goalies mask a lot of flaws but you still can’t win games with 1 goal. I would rather be trying to find a goalie for Matthews or McDavid (or be Mackinnon with one Cup already) at 27-28 years old than trying to build a competent roster in front of 29 year old Igor. We’re sort of a fan base of haters; objectively I’d rather have ANY of the players I mentioned over a single person on our team.
Sure, it’s fun to hate on them. I’m 38. These dudes are 22-23 (Jack & Timmy). As 21 year olds they each had arguably better years than Mika has ever had with 99 and 90 points in 78 games a piece. When Mika was 21 he put up 46 points in the NHL. I’d kill to have that talent on this team. Shesterkin feels young but I think we forget he debuted older; he’ll be 29 shortly. He’s not young and giving him an 8 year deal to be the highest paid goalie ever starting at 29 is lunacy. Fox is already turning 27. Imagine having a 21 year old center put up 90+ points.
