Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LIII

[Edge]

Can’t say I love hearing they don’t worry about the cap when you consider they’re absolutely going to be in a cap crunch in like two seasons

But I guess I’m not running the team

You manage and you navigate it.

The point wasn’t that it’s ignored. The point was that fans spend more time focused on 2-3 years down the road, than the team.

The cap has been in place 15 years. And the whole “we’re in trouble in 2-3 years” has been a concept almost the whole time. I don’t know if anyone with the team that entire time has ever said to me “yeah, we’re really concerned about this.”

Of the people I talk to with other teams, it’s only come up once in a while. And even then, it was resolved without calamity.

 

[NYSPORTS]

You manage and you navigate it.

The point wasn’t that it’s ignored. The point was that fans spend more time focused on 2-3 years down the road, than the team.

The cap has been in place 15 years. And the whole “we’re in trouble in 2-3 years” has been a concept almost the whole time. I don’t know if anyone with the team that entire time has ever said to me “yeah, we’re really concerned about this.”

Of the people I talk to with other teams, it’s only come up once in a while. And even then, it was resolved without calamity.

when you hand out expensive, long term contracts with limited trade clauses it’s tough if not impossible to navigate. Appears signing Kreider long term or trading him came down to the last hour. Then the Rangers win the lottery and suddenly the face of the franchise literally comes out of nowhere with multiple contracts on deck including a huge one with Zibby. By that time, the Kakko/Laf monster deals will be in sight.

Thankfully, Kreider doesn’t have a full NTC b/c he’s the one who need to be moved in time.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

You manage and you navigate it.

The point wasn’t that it’s ignored. The point was that fans spend more time focused on 2-3 years down the road, than the team.

The cap has been in place 15 years. And the whole “we’re in trouble in 2-3 years” has been a concept almost the whole time. I don’t know if anyone with the team that entire time has ever said to me “yeah, we’re really concerned about this.”

Of the people I talk to with other teams, it’s only come up once in a while. And even then, it was resolved without calamity.

I understand, I guess I just worry more about it lol

I wouldn’t have made some of their decisions, like Kreider’s contract or buying out Henrik.

I’d like to hear them being a bit more proactive so a situation doesn’t arise where someone needs to be bought out again, or we lose a young player.

But again I’m not running the team

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

We will be top 2 in Pronman's organizational prospect rankings. Top 10 so far:
3 Vancouver
4 Toronto
5 Buffalo
6 Carolina
7 Ottawa
8 Colorado
9 Montreal
10 Philadelphia

The last two are published tomorrow. I'm surprised we got top 3 but I really didn't expect NJ to be this high. Roster help is almost here.

Edit in a misprint of a team

I said all along that we would definitely be top 5 and likely top 2 — and that we’d jump to #1 after the draft — but I’m shocked Vancouver didn’t get the highest ranking prior to October. Thought Pettersson and Hughes would push them over the top.

 

[GAGLine]

Am I dreaming that Smith is tradeable to create space ?

It's going to be really, really hard to move him. Lots of teams are going to be trying to move players, many who are much better than Smith. It's going to be a buyer's market.

I have suggested Goligoski in the past, as that would be something that would help Arizona both with the cap and with real money, while giving us the better player. But it would make our cap even tighter, so we'd have to find another way to clear space.

Looking around the league, I wonder if Ryan Murray would be a possibility. He has a 4.6 mil cap hit, so slightly higher than Smith's 4.35. He is owed 4.7 mil, compared to Smith's 2.35, so that saves Columbus a significant amount of money, if they are concerned about that. We could then buy out Murray, dropping his cap hit to 1,466,667 for this year and 1,566,667 the following year.

We would save 2,883,333 against the cap compared to keeping Smith. Of course, we would then need to promote or sign someone to take his place. If we signed a someone to the minimum to be the 7th dman, that drops our savings to 2,183,333. Still not bad. The alternative would be to buy out Smith, which would only save us 1,566,667 before accounting for his replacement, though he would be about 800k cheaper in 2021-22.

 

[Edge]

when you hand out expensive, long term contracts with limited trade clauses it’s tough if not impossible to navigate. Appears signing Kreider long term or trading him came down to the last hour. Then the Rangers win the lottery and suddenly the face of the franchise literally comes out of nowhere with multiple contracts on deck including a huge one with Zibby. By that time, the Kakko/Laf monster deals will be in sight.

Thankfully, Kreider doesn’t have a full NTC b/c he’s the one who need to be moved in time.

I think some teams struggle with it more than others.

Concerning the Rangers, I think ADA and Buch are candidates to be moved at some point. Staal comes off at some point. Smith comes off at some point. Lundqvist comes off at some point. Strome comes off at some point. Fast, even if he signs, comes off at some point. Zibanejad’s fate will be tied to his health and durability.

 

[Edge]

I understand, I guess I just worry more about it lol

I wouldn’t have made some of their decisions, like Kreider’s contract or buying out Henrik.

I’d like to hear them being a bit more proactive so a situation doesn’t arise where someone needs to be bought out again, or we lose a young player.

But again I’m not running the team

I think Kreider’s deal, assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff, will be manageable. But I also think there are going to be guys who get moved at some point for cheaper alternatives.

The proactive aspect you refer to is why a team still drafts RDs even when they have Trouba, Fox, ADA and Lundkvist, or do the same with other positions.

Two years ago, everyone was trying to figure out how we’d ice a lineup with Zibanejad, Hayes, Chytil, Andersson and Howden. Not much of an issue now. Unless we get stupid and knee-jerk, these things do have a way of working out with time.

Sometimes it’s just not the way we thought they would.

 

[UnSandvich]

It's going to be really, really hard to move him. Lots of teams are going to be trying to move players, many who are much better than Smith. It's going to be a buyer's market.

I have suggested Goligoski in the past, as that would be something that would help Arizona both with the cap and with real money, while giving us the better player. But it would make our cap even tighter, so we'd have to find another way to clear space.

Looking around the league, I wonder if Ryan Murray would be a possibility. He has a 4.6 mil cap hit, so slightly higher than Smith's 4.35. He is owed 4.7 mil, compared to Smith's 2.35, so that saves Columbus a significant amount of money, if they are concerned about that. We could then buy out Murray, dropping his cap hit to 1,466,667 for this year and 1,566,667 the following year.

We would save 2,883,333 against the cap compared to keeping Smith. Of course, we would then need to promote or sign someone to take his place. If we signed a someone to the minimum to be the 7th dman, that drops our savings to 2,183,333. Still not bad. The alternative would be to buy out Smith, which would only save us 1,566,667 before accounting for his replacement, though he would be about 800k cheaper in 2021-22.

Why would we buy out Murray? He's a genuine Top 4 Dman, he just can't stay healthy. He's very much not a cap dump

 

[IronBloodedLion]

The flat cap and uncertainty going forward is going to make things very interesting this off season.

I wonder if some guys will be taking less money just to secure a deal for at least a year or two. Could be a good offseason to get a few cheaper stop gap players.

 

[GAGLine]

Why would we buy out Murray? He's a genuine Top 4 Dman, he just can't stay healthy. He's very much not a cap dump

In the regular season, he had the 4th most TOI per game overall, 5th most at even strength, 2nd most on the PK, and 15th most on the PP. But he only played 27 games and 24 of those were from Oct 4th to Dec 14th. He played 3 games in March and got over 20 minutes in all of them, but Seth Jones was out at that time, so they may have needed to lean on Murray more (yes, I'm aware they play different sides). I'm not sure if anyone else was out on defense, but I remember them being pretty banged up.

In the playoffs, he only averaged 16:25 per game, 14th most on the team and 6th most among defenders. On the PK, he was 13th, and on the PP 14th. He played 21:07 in one game, but that game went to overtime. In another game, he played 35:53, but that was the 5 OT game. His other games were 14:58, 14:53, 11:46, 9:56, 12:46, 13:58 and 12:33. That last one was an OT game.

It seems like Gavrikov has passed him on the depth chart, but maybe he was playing hurt, and that was why he got less time. If Columbus still views him as a top 4 dman, then it's a moot point, because they aren't trading him for Smith. If Columbus is willing to do that trade and the Rangers want to keep Murray for at least one year, that's fine. I was just looking at ways to clear Smith's cap hit.

 

[Edge]

The flat cap and uncertainty going forward is going to make things very interesting this off season.

I wonder if some guys will be taking less money just to secure a deal for at least a year or two. Could be a good offseason to get a few cheaper stop gap players.

That’s part of the reason I am curious to see what we can get for Georgiev. In addition to believing his intrigue for other teams is related to his ability to potentially become a starter (unlikely here), I also think the market could be ripe for a friendlier contract for a backup.

 

[NYR Viper]

It's going to be really, really hard to move him. Lots of teams are going to be trying to move players, many who are much better than Smith. It's going to be a buyer's market.

I have suggested Goligoski in the past, as that would be something that would help Arizona both with the cap and with real money, while giving us the better player. But it would make our cap even tighter, so we'd have to find another way to clear space.

Looking around the league, I wonder if Ryan Murray would be a possibility. He has a 4.6 mil cap hit, so slightly higher than Smith's 4.35. He is owed 4.7 mil, compared to Smith's 2.35, so that saves Columbus a significant amount of money, if they are concerned about that. We could then buy out Murray, dropping his cap hit to 1,466,667 for this year and 1,566,667 the following year.

We would save 2,883,333 against the cap compared to keeping Smith. Of course, we would then need to promote or sign someone to take his place. If we signed a someone to the minimum to be the 7th dman, that drops our savings to 2,183,333. Still not bad. The alternative would be to buy out Smith, which would only save us 1,566,667 before accounting for his replacement, though he would be about 800k cheaper in 2021-22.

There are deals to be made with Smith. If teams are tight with internal budgets. Hell even Staal COULD be moved if a team was looking to shed a high dollar contract.

Smith
1 year left
$2.35m in real dollars

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( NYR)
2020-21	$2,350,000	$4,350,000	$1,000,000	$783,333	$1,783,333	$1,566,667	$2,783,333
2021-22	$0	$0	$0	$783,333	$783,333	-$783,333	$783,333
TOTAL	$2,350,000	$4,350,000	$1,000,000	$1,566,667	$2,566,667	$783,333	$3,566,666

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Staal
1 year left
$3.2m in real dollars
Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( NYR)
2020-21	$3,200,000	$5,700,000	$1,000,000	$1,066,667	$2,066,667	$2,133,333	$3,566,667
2021-22	$0	$0	$0	$1,066,667	$1,066,667	-$1,066,667	$1,066,667
TOTAL	$3,200,000	$5,700,000	$1,000,000	$2,133,333	$3,133,333	$1,066,667	$4,633,334

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I keep coming back to Michael Grabner

There are other options but they would require some 'creativity'. Such as would Boston prefer Brendan Smith/Marc Staal for a single year in lieu of John Moore and his 3 years left? They don't appear to be in cap hell next year so that would create some flexibility for them beyond next year.

I've mentioned Roussel before but would Vancouver move Roussel who has 2 years left and could fill a hole for the Rangers up front as a veteran?

 

[jay from jersey]

I think we as a board fret more about the cap than the team does. It’s just not really something that seems to come up much internally.

That’s because people on these boards try to plan 6-7 years Down the road when in actuality you plan more like 3-4 years tops. Look at how much turnover goes on in the business of hockey in a 2 year period. A lot of guys people have penciled in 5 years down the road could be traded, bought out, gets injured, busts, or leaves like lias and has an tantrum. You never can get a serious read. You can estimate but other then that you deal with the problems as they come. Say you swing a trade for Monahan for example, but a kid we draft this year in the 2nd round comes in next year as an absolute stud, unlikely yes, but now what do you do? You have 1 year left on Mika and 3 on Monahan and this kid is ready to take that 2nd line ice time. Or what if Chytil comes in like an absolute beast. GM”s have to stay fluid. Everything is always changing all the time

 

[UnSandvich]

In the regular season, he had the 4th most TOI per game overall, 5th most at even strength, 2nd most on the PK, and 15th most on the PP. But he only played 27 games and 24 of those were from Oct 4th to Dec 14th. He played 3 games in March and got over 20 minutes in all of them, but Seth Jones was out at that time, so they may have needed to lean on Murray more (yes, I'm aware they play different sides). I'm not sure if anyone else was out on defense, but I remember them being pretty banged up.

In the playoffs, he only averaged 16:25 per game, 14th most on the team and 6th most among defenders. On the PK, he was 13th, and on the PP 14th. He played 21:07 in one game, but that game went to overtime. In another game, he played 35:53, but that was the 5 OT game. His other games were 14:58, 14:53, 11:46, 9:56, 12:46, 13:58 and 12:33. That last one was an OT game.

It seems like Gavrikov has passed him on the depth chart, but maybe he was playing hurt, and that was why he got less time. If Columbus still views him as a top 4 dman, then it's a moot point, because they aren't trading him for Smith. If Columbus is willing to do that trade and the Rangers want to keep Murray for at least one year, that's fine. I was just looking at ways to clear Smith's cap hit.

Yeah, short of us adding a 1st, there's 0 chance Smith is the return for Murray. He'd instantly be our 1LHD, and not by a small margin

 

[egelband]

With the exception of Kreider though, I don’t know if there’s too many guys they’ve fretted about as an UFA. And even in Kreider’s case, I don’t get the sense that the cap was nearly as big of an issue as it was whether or not they wanted to commit to a 29 year old player and for how long.

So in that sense, the effectiveness of the player as it relates to budgeting has traditionally been a bigger deal than how the cap hit relates relates to the broader team payroll.

Yeah. Put it this way. I totally agree they could figure out how to keep Buchnevich long term but, personally, I’d go in another direction.

 

[Mikos87]

In the regular season, he had the 4th most TOI per game overall, 5th most at even strength, 2nd most on the PK, and 15th most on the PP. But he only played 27 games and 24 of those were from Oct 4th to Dec 14th. He played 3 games in March and got over 20 minutes in all of them, but Seth Jones was out at that time, so they may have needed to lean on Murray more (yes, I'm aware they play different sides). I'm not sure if anyone else was out on defense, but I remember them being pretty banged up.

In the playoffs, he only averaged 16:25 per game, 14th most on the team and 6th most among defenders. On the PK, he was 13th, and on the PP 14th. He played 21:07 in one game, but that game went to overtime. In another game, he played 35:53, but that was the 5 OT game. His other games were 14:58, 14:53, 11:46, 9:56, 12:46, 13:58 and 12:33. That last one was an OT game.

It seems like Gavrikov has passed him on the depth chart, but maybe he was playing hurt, and that was why he got less time. If Columbus still views him as a top 4 dman, then it's a moot point, because they aren't trading him for Smith. If Columbus is willing to do that trade and the Rangers want to keep Murray for at least one year, that's fine. I was just looking at ways to clear Smith's cap hit.

Murray's been leapfrogged. Definitely a redundant piece for CLB, but a guy that is a legitimate top 4 player in the NHL when healthy. Gavrikov has definitely surpassed him, the way that Gavrikov plays, and knowing who the coach is, you know he'd rather have Gavrikov out there. The Gavrikov-Savard pair is a legitimate shutdown pair.

The value is hard to gauge given Murray's injury history. CLB needs picks, and if they retain, they can get some draft capital for him. Like a 2nd and a 3rd/4th. Don't see a fit with the Rangers who need someone that can play, but a team like CGY, VAN, or MTL could all use Murray in some capacity.