Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXVII: Lot’s of Fools in April

[Calad]

Posted this in regards to retaining Strome beyond his contract, but is an all purpose summary on our projected cap situation for the next 2 seasons:

Rangers have appx 31m in cap space this coming off season, DeAngelo buyout increases that to ~35m. 51m in space the year following, which doesn't include any contracts signed this coming offseason.

Extension due this year:
Buchnevich
Chytil
Lindgren
Shesterkin

Extension due in 2022:
Zibanejad
Fox
Kakko
Georgiev

I excluded players like Gauthier, Howden, Hajek who haven't shown they would get anything more than league minimum or close to. Kravtsov also due an extension in 2022 but who knows what that will look like as he hasn't even played an NHL game.

My guesses at extension numbers
Buchnevich (5.5-6m at ~5 years)
Chytil (2.5-3m bridge)
Lindgren (4.5-5m for ~4 years)
Shesterkin (something like Vasilevsky 2nd contract, 3.5m x 3 years)

Zibanejad (8-10m at 7 years)
Fox ( 8x8)
Kakko (no clue, depends on how he produces next year. could be a bridge at like 2m, or maybe they sign him long term like 6x6 or something)
Georgiev (2.75, which would be his QO)

So a conservative estimate is 17m for 2021, and somewhere between 23-28m for 2022. So thats roughtly 40-45m in cap space spoken for between the next two years. That doesn't even account for UFA acquisitions. If the Rangers chase someone like Barkov in 2022 (likely getting around 10m) then some of these players need to be dealt to make space for him. Then following that season the cap only opens up a few more million and Laf & K'Andre are due a raise.

 

[Dr Quincy]

If the Rangers chase someone like Barkov in 2022

Barkov is the face of a franchise that is finally winning with him.

Why does he walk away to join the Quinnies?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

I dont see Barkov making it to UFA unless he doesn't want to play in FL anymore. I don't see the Panthers ownership playing hardball in contract negotiations. They will give him basically anything he wants.

 

[Kodiak]

Posted this in regards to retaining Strome beyond his contract, but is an all purpose summary on our projected cap situation for the next 2 seasons:

Rangers have appx 31m in cap space this coming off season, DeAngelo buyout increases that to ~35m. 51m in space the year following, which doesn't include any contracts signed this coming offseason.

Extension due this year:
Buchnevich
Chytil
Lindgren
Shesterkin

Extension due in 2022:
Zibanejad
Fox
Kakko
Georgiev

I excluded players like Gauthier, Howden, Hajek who haven't shown they would get anything more than league minimum or close to. Kravtsov also due an extension in 2022 but who knows what that will look like as he hasn't even played an NHL game.

My guesses at extension numbers
Buchnevich (5.5-6m at ~5 years)
Chytil (2.5-3m bridge)
Lindgren (4.5-5m for ~4 years)
Shesterkin (something like Vasilevsky 2nd contract, 3.5m x 3 years)

Zibanejad (8-10m at 7 years)
Fox ( 8x8)
Kakko (no clue, depends on how he produces next year. could be a bridge at like 2m, or maybe they sign him long term like 6x6 or something)
Georgiev (2.75, which would be his QO)

So a conservative estimate is 17m for 2021, and somewhere between 23-28m for 2022. So thats roughtly 40-45m in cap space spoken for between the next two years. That doesn't even account for UFA acquisitions. If the Rangers chase someone like Barkov in 2022 (likely getting around 10m) then some of these players need to be dealt to make space for him. Then following that season the cap only opens up a few more million and Laf & K'Andre are due a raise.

If we think Shesterkin is the guy in net, then we probably have to bite the bullet and sign him long-term. He is eligible to be unrestricted in two years, so that makes a two or three year "prove it" contract very risky.

 

[Calad]

Barkov is the face of a franchise that is finally winning with him.

Why does he walk away to join the Quinnies?

The conversation about the cats was very different the past 2 years, things can change on a dime. No way a player who is a year from UFA doesn't look around the league and see potential opportunities elsewhere. If a Barkov extension isn't announced this summer I think it signals his intentions to hit the market.

Quinn contract is up next year, if hes even still around then. He won't be extended.

I dont see Barkov making it to UFA unless he doesn't want to play in FL anymore. I don't see the Panthers ownership playing hardball in contract negotiations. They will give him basically anything he wants.

Panthers would be stupid not to hand this guy an essentially blank check, however they have a lot of money tied up in Bob, Yandle, Hornqvist and more still in that 2022 offseason. For a guy like Barkov you make the space for him. Like you said, depends if he wants to still be there.

If we think Shesterkin is the guy in net, then we probably have to bite the bullet and sign him long-term. He is eligible to be unrestricted in two years, so that makes a two or three year "prove it" contract very risky.

if they can sign him for 5-6 years at a reasonable # then I think they jump on that, I was just going based on comparable 2nd contracts for comparable goalies. I suppose Hellebuyck's 6x6ish contract would fit this scenario as well.

 

[duhmetreE]

I really think Barron could be a HUGE asset for us if he sticks at center. He fits the mold/checks all the boxes for what we need. He's a perfect compliment for our wingers.

I'd love to see, Lafreniere Barron Kravtsov down the stretch

 

[RickChartraw]

I really think Barron could be a HUGE asset for us if he sticks at center. He fits the mold/checks all the boxes for what we need. He's a perfect compliment for our wingers.

I'd love to see, Lafreniere Barron Kravtsov down the stretch

That would be a nice win from a 6th rounder, no doubt.

 

[howztheglass]

ADA to Florida makes sense with Ek’s injury. Offensive D-man which they need that can run a PP. Defensively not even close

Maybe they pick up Ghost—both make around the same salary.

 

[Avery16]

Chytil looked good tonight.

 

[RGY]

I would still be looking to pry Lindholm out of Calgary. I dont think that makes us “buyers” but more of just a move that helps this team moving forward beyond this year. Because of his contract, he wouldnt come cheap in terms of assets but it would be a lot less than Eichel’s cost and would be a great compliment to our winger group.

 

[CupSeeker]

I would still be looking to pry Lindholm out of Calgary. I dont think that makes us “buyers” but more of just a move that helps this team moving forward beyond this year. Because of his contract, he wouldnt come cheap in terms of assets but it would be a lot less than Eichel’s cost and would be a great compliment to our winger group.

I like this idea. Chytil may be better on the wing anyway and Strome just has too much chemistry with Bread to move him. Of course, if Calgary wanted Strome, see ya Ryan.

 

[RGY]

I like this idea. Chytil may be better on the wing anyway and Strome just has too much chemistry with Bread to move him. Of course, if Calgary wanted Strome, see ya Ryan.

I really dont know what the price would be. Dont even think Calgary would be willing to move him. They would probably look to move Gaudreau, Bennett, and Monahan first. But that organization needs a shake up. Not sure if its a “retool” or a “rebuild” for them. Tkachuk could join the list of guys possibly on the move too. Would be a great add if we werent so winger heavy.

But Lindholm would be my target. Chytil shifts to wing. Not sure if the Rangers could get it done with prospects and picks, but this would be a solid forward group:

Kreider-Zib-Buch
Panarin-Strome-Kakko
Lafreniere-Lindholm-Chytil
Blackwell-Barron-Gauthier
PDG, Rooney

 

[Fitzy]

Lindgren (4.5-5m for ~4 years)

Don't like this one at all.

I think they should take it a couple years at a time with Lindgren, and a 4 year would take him to UFA at the youngest eligible age.

Also, defensive defensemen get notoriously underpaid, so 5 mil on an RFA contract for Lindgren would be a bad deal in a flat cap world. Staal and Girardi only got about 3 mil per on RFA/UFA deals in their mid 20s

 

[Calad]

Don't like this one at all.

I think they should take it a couple years at a time with Lindgren, and a 4 year would take him to UFA at the youngest eligible age.

Also, defensive defensemen get notoriously underpaid, so 5 mil on an RFA contract for Lindgren would be a bad deal in a flat cap world. Staal and Girardi only got about 3 mil per on RFA/UFA deals in their mid 20s

Girardi signed 3.325 for 4 years like 10 years ago when the cap was maybe 60m? Came out to 5.6% of the cap.

Care to venture a guess at 5.6% of 81.5m cap is?

 

[Fitzy]

Girardi signed 3.325 for 4 years like 10 years ago when the cap was maybe 60m? Came out to 5.6% of the cap.

Care to venture a guess at 5.6% of 81.5m cap is?

But that was after a two year bridge at 1.5 mil per. If we did a 2x3 for Lindgren and he came out unscathed and still in the top four, I’d extend him for 4x4.5 for sure.

 

[Calad]

But that was after a two year bridge at 1.5 mil per. If we did a 2x3 for Lindgren and he came out unscathed and still in the top four, I’d extend him for 4x4.5 for sure.

Also only had a 2 year ELC, and only the 2nd year Girardi was with the club full time.

I could definitely see a 2-3 year bridge deal for Lindgren working, but you're underselling the role Lindgren has played for this team.

 

[Synergy27]

I really dont know what the price would be. Dont even think Calgary would be willing to move him. They would probably look to move Gaudreau, Bennett, and Monahan first. But that organization needs a shake up. Not sure if its a “retool” or a “rebuild” for them. Tkachuk could join the list of guys possibly on the move too. Would be a great add if we werent so winger heavy.

But Lindholm would be my target. Chytil shifts to wing. Not sure if the Rangers could get it done with prospects and picks, but this would be a solid forward group:

Kreider-Zib-Buch
Panarin-Strome-Kakko
Lafreniere-Lindholm-Chytil
Blackwell-Barron-Gauthier
PDG, Rooney

Tkachuk is exactly the type of player they should be looking for, winger or not. He would diversify the winger group nicely. No idea what Calgary would be looking for in a trade though.

 

[Fitzy]

Also only had a 2 year ELC, and only the 2nd year Girardi was with the club full time.

I could definitely see a 2-3 year bridge deal for Lindgren working, but you're underselling the role Lindgren has played for this team.

That’s fair, but I’m optimistic we can keep it affordable.

When we got Kevin Klein he was on a 5x2.9 contract that ended up being a hell of a bargain for us, and it’d be nice if we could negotiate one of those for ourselves.

With how many young players we have coming along every dollar is going to count

 

[Calad]

That’s fair, but I’m optimistic we can keep it affordable.

When we got Kevin Klein he was on a 5x2.9 contract that ended up being a hell of a bargain for us, and it’d be nice if we could negotiate one of those for ourselves.

With how many young players we have coming along every dollar is going to count

Preaching to the choir. Seeing how I mapped out the cap situation for the coming years. A squeeze is coming, and won't just be Strome who is a cap casualty.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Some random thoughts on what's been discussed in the last page or so.

-Agree that a bridge deal is the way to go with Lindgren. The guy literally bleeds for this team time and time again, but buyer beware with him long term. He's going to have a lot of miles on his tires at a younger age because of the game he plays. I don't ever give him more than a 4 year deal even after a bridge deal.

-Calgary is far more likely to trade Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, etc than they are Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tkachuk. The latter group is their core moving forward, IMO. The first three names will be dealt in an attempt to retool on the fly.

-Florida should throw the kitchen sink and then some at Barkov to get him to stay. I'm skeptical that they'll be able to retain him, though. Even pre-pandemic that franchise has hemorrhaged money. They have the cap space, but do they have the actual cash to pay out an 8 year, $80 to $90 million contract? You know that the Rangers will be in the mix and that there will be mutual interest if he ever hits the open market. The question becomes what to do with Zibanejad. The Rangers can't afford both him and Barkov.

-The strategy this summer and next should be to not give out more than 2 or 3 year deals to anyone except for your absolute core players. At this juncture Gorton, JD, and co have to really do some introspection and decide if Buchnevich and Strome are players that you're going to win a Cup with. They have both earned multiyear deals, but will the Rangers be able to afford both coming in at 4 or 5 years at $5 to 5.5 million per year? I get the feeling that they're only going to be able to keep one, and that's going to be a really, really tough situation.

Strome is the guy to deal if the Rangers parlay assets somewhere else to get a good 2nd/3rd line center to go behind Zibanejad. Buchnevich is the guy to deal if the assets are parlayed to acquire good bottom six depth that can sustain a forecheck and kill penalties. The ideal acquisition would be able to do both. Someone like an Anthony Cirelli, Radek Faksa, or Christian Dvorak are perfect, but they won't be cheap to acquire, but not as expensive as Jack Eichel. Either way, I think either Strome or Buchnevich are your key to acquiring one of these guys. Dylan Larkin is the rich man's version of this player and another interesting option. Does Detroit see Larkin as a part of the core or do they think his best days will be behind him once they're ready to contend again? The Rangers could squeeze him and Zibanejad under the cap, but that means no Barkov. Barkov means no Zibanejad, though. Would you rather have Zibanejad and Larkin for the next five years in this next Cup contention window or Barkov and Dvorak/Faksa for that window? Not an easy choice....

-That said.....the early struggles with Lafreniere and Kakko may end up a blessing in disguise. This may end up making their second contracts more palatable, and if all goes to plan, they're both hitting their strides during their second contracts and don't need to be paid until they're 25 or 26 if they don't break out until their second contract during their 22 or 23 year old seasons if they're bridged after their ELC's. Patience is a virtue with these guys and with a player like Kravtsov and Chytil. Power forwards take longer to develop unless your name is Eric Lindros or Mario Lemieux and you're a generational talent right off the bat at 18.

-Chytil and Kravtsov will be fine on the 3rd line. Let them develop and marinate. The Rangers can't afford for all three of Lafreniere, Kakko, and Kravtsov to bust. They'll get at least one elite player out of that grouping. Kravtsov is likely the guy dealt to acquire a 2nd/3rd line defensively responsible forward that can PK and pot a few, unless Kravtsov himself can prove himself to be that exact player the Rangers need.

-The Rangers have no potential bottom six NHL forwards in the system like a Fast or even a better version of Howden outside of maybe Barron, Berard, or Cuylle. Color me pleasantly surprised if two of the three pan out.

 

[mike14]

How much effect do we think the flat cap will have on signings?
Will guys like Fox want shorter deals in the hope/expectation that there'll be more $$ to splash around in 2-3 years time, or will they opt for maximum long-term stability?

 

[kovazub94]

The best thing that Gorton could’ve done to maximize the return on $11.5m AAV he gave Panarin, was finding him Strome to play center at $4.5m for two years (that is after playing for $3.2m for 1.5 years)! It’s not only that Panarin turned Strome into a PPG center, it is that Strome is good enough for Panarin to produce as he never done before!

 

[Anthony5967]

Eichel to NYR mentioned again by Friedman, saying they had an offer on the table to BUF that was solid. Forever Blueshirts recapped it. Wonder if they circle back this summer. There is no way he goes into the fall on that team without demanding a deal.

 

[egelband]

Eichel to NYR mentioned again by Friedman, saying they had an offer on the table to BUF that was solid. Forever Blueshirts recapped it. Wonder if they circle back this summer. There is no way he goes into the fall on that team without demanding a deal.

I was thinking this coaching change might be their last swing at turning this around with Eichel. Maybe they say “who do you want to coach?” And let it all ride for one more year. But really, wasn’t this season kind of like that? ‘We’ll get some hired guns and try to make it work’. And it hasn’t.
Frankly, it’s depressing. I don’t think Eichel has been a bad guy either. He has kept his mouth shut. It could have worked out with better management.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

That’s fair, but I’m optimistic we can keep it affordable.

When we got Kevin Klein he was on a 5x2.9 contract that ended up being a hell of a bargain for us, and it’d be nice if we could negotiate one of those for ourselves.

With how many young players we have coming along every dollar is going to count

David Poile is a magician man, when it comes to negotiating with defensemen