Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXVI: Spring into action (GMJG outta hibernation?)

[GAGLine]

Of Rangers penalty killers with 30mins or more spent on the PK, only one has a CF%, FF%, SF% and xGF% below 10. Guess who that is?
Only one F has allowed 7 goals against. Guess who that is?
Only one F has not been on for a single shorthanded goal for. Guess who that is?
Only one F has an on-ice sv% below .850. Guess who that is?

PLAYING A LOT OF SOMETHING DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE ANY GOOD AT IT. AND HOWDEN ISN'T.

Can you give me the site where you are getting these numbers?

 

[bobbop]

For all the bitching about Howden, did you see who the coaches had on the ice at the end of the game?

 

[UnSandvich]

Can you give me the site where you are getting these numbers?

Yep. NaturalStatTrick.

Go to the Players drop-down at the top, and click on-ice.
Where it says 5v5, change it to "Penalty Kill".
Click More Filters, select Rangers for Team and input 30 for Min TOI

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Of course there are many great players who got fed ice time early in their careers, mostly because they were on bad teams who didn't have better options, but also because they were producing. And when I say producing, they were driving play, not just riding shotgun to good players and leeching points.

There are also examples of players who didn't get a ton of ice time early, like Svechnikov, Seguin, Stamkos, Zibanejad, Marchand, Pastrnak.

None of these examples prove or disprove my statement. They are simply anecdotal evidence that great players find a way to be great. We will never know if they would have been better or worse by playing less minutes on a better team, or if they would have achieved the same level more or less quickly. When I make that statement, I look at teams like the Islanders, Sabres and Oilers. The Islanders were terrible with Tavares and didn't really start winning until he left. I'm not saying he was the reason they were bad, but him being great was irrelevant. His team didn't magically become better because of it. The same is true of guys like McDavid, Draisaitl and Eichel. Ovechkin has been a beast his entire career and has never had to worry about his ice time, but it wasn't until Trotz came along and got them to play with more defensive structure that the actually won a cup. Pittsburgh won 2 cups recently by playing strong defensive structure and having a great 3rd line.

You can also look at a team like Toronto. For years now, they've had plenty of players who score a lot, including Tavares, but they haven't won anything. Now they are trying to become better defensively and they are trying to teach players who are used to playing run and gun to play with more structure. Can that work? Sure. Tampa just did it, but even then it took them a long time to get over the hump, just like it did with Washington.

I'd rather have the kids learn the right way from the start, than to be force fed minutes where they cheat for offense and/or get gifted points by playing with better players. If that means it takes longer for them to break out offensively, that's fine. If nothing else, their contract demands will be lower.

This is definitely the trade off and I think it's more than fair to argue either side. We all want these guys to be great offensively but not at the expense of being a complete liability on the other end of the puck. If you push offensive production early without regard to bad habits elsewhere, you can end up with a player like Laine and questionable team results overall. But there is a real risk to being overly conservative as well...getting two 40-60 two way players out of these kids is also a bad outcome in my book.

Obviously the NYR appear to be taking the "mold complete players" approach. In my personal opinion they should aim to strike more of a balance than they have been. Confidence and trajectory are a fragile thing which is why you often see "reclamation projects" be successful. I won't lie I would also be much more confident if I didn't think this was in large part a function of Quinn managing for his job. Great players do find a way to be great...I completely agree with that statement. So let's all hope that they end up as great as advertised.

 

[UnSandvich]

For all the bitching about Howden, did you see who the coaches had on the ice at the end of the game?

EDIT: I'm sorry, that was kinda rude of me, you don't deserve that right now

 

[Irishguy42]

For all the bitching about Howden, did you see who the coaches had on the ice at the end of the game?

Your ability to post empty analysis is unmatched

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

We’ve gotten to the point in Quinn’s tenure where “developing the kids” is a secondary goal

It’s obvious that’s the case by the way he doles out ice time and who gets scratched

Have to make sure guys who won’t be here in 12 months like Blackwell and Howden are getting their minutes

This season is the perfect opportunity to figure what you have in guys like Gauthier and Chytil and they’re choosing not too

This is what I don’t understand. I don’t care how good Blackwell looks, which by the way he really doesn’t look that good, he shouldn't be getting the type of minutes and usage he’s getting if the goal here is to develop kids.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

For all the bitching about Howden, did you see who the coaches had on the ice at the end of the game?

Did you also see who was on the ice for every goal given up to the Caps over the last two games?

 

[duhmetreE]

Buchnevich for Newhook

do you do it?

 

[Irishguy42]

Buchnevich for Newhook

do you do it?

Flashbacks to the discussions at the 2019 draft

 

[GAGLine]

Yep. NaturalStatTrick.

Go to the Players drop-down at the top, and click on-ice.
Where it says 5v5, change it to "Penalty Kill".
Click More Filters, select Rangers for Team and input 30 for Min TOI

I'm not an advanced stats expert, but I did notice that his PDO is .833. The one thing I always hear about PDO is that is will regress to the mean (1), so maybe it's just been bad luck?

My guess concerning his numbers, and the reason why I wanted to look at them, is that many of those goals against came in the first handful of games, when neither goalie could stop a beach ball.

We've let up a total of 13 goals on the PK. 7 of those goals came in our first 7 games. So I looked at the Rangers last 23 games and got this:

His CF% and SF% are still very low, but I'm not really concerned about how many shots/goals the PK gets. We have other players on the PK who can generate scoring chances. Howden doesn't generate much offense at 5 on 5. On the PK, it's enough that he prevents goals. And over the last 23 games, he has done that well enough. His PDO over those 23 games is .906, if that matters, so a bit of a regression (or progression, I guess).

I also looked at Blackwell's numbers:

2 goals against in 8 minutes of PK time. 18.18% CF and 10.0% SF. He didn't kill penalties at all with Nashville, so there's no evidence to suggest that he would actually be better at it than Howden.

 

[GAGLine]

This is definitely the trade off and I think it's more than fair to argue either side. We all want these guys to be great offensively but not at the expense of being a complete liability on the other end of the puck. If you push offensive production early without regard to bad habits elsewhere, you can end up with a player like Laine and questionable team results overall. But there is a real risk to being overly conservative as well...getting two 40-60 two way players out of these kids is also a bad outcome in my book.

Obviously the NYR appear to be taking the "mold complete players" approach. In my personal opinion they should aim to strike more of a balance than they have been. Confidence and trajectory are a fragile thing which is why you often see "reclamation projects" be successful. I won't lie I would also be much more confident if I didn't think this was in large part a function of Quinn managing for his job. Great players do find a way to be great...I completely agree with that statement. So let's all hope that they end up as great as advertised.

I don't disagree with that. If they were producing more with the minutes they have been given, I would be in favor of giving them more minutes.

Every player is different, and it's up to the coach to figure out how to get the best out of each player. They won't always be right, but I think we as fans have to concede that we don't have all of the information. We don't get to watch these players in practice. We don't see the videos that they do. We don't know exactly what they are being told and how well they are absorbing the information. Maybe Quinn IS doing it all wrong, but it's premature to say that when Kakko has barely played more than 1 full season and Laf has played only 30 games. We have enough examples of players who have progressed well under Quinn that IMO, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Buchnevich for Newhook

do you do it?

Without a doubt.

We do not no have the space for Buch as much as that stinks. If we can land Newhook you JUMP on that as fast as possible and never look back.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Buchnevich for Newhook

do you do it?

I'd see if Colorado would want Kravtsov and a small add first.

I want to see Kravtsov for a few games before I say yes, but Buchnevich is looking more and more irreplaceable by the game.

 

[Calad]

Gorton has nothing to do with it. He doesn't decide who plays, Quinn does. Quinn trusts Howden more than he trusts Gauthier, and Howden fills a role that Gauthier does not.

No, thats not true. They collaborate on who gets in the lineup

 

[Savant]

Don’t think the Avalanche are trading Newhook

 

[Calad]

I'd see if Colorado would want Kravtsov and a small add first.

I want to see Kravtsov for a few games before I say yes, but Buchnevich is looking more and more irreplaceable by the game.

They're not trading their top C prospect for a winger prospect that hasn't proven anything at the NHL level when their cap situation has them in go for it mode for the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[leetch99]

For all the bitching about Howden, did you see who the coaches had on the ice at the end of the game?

Bob....in the last couple of practices they had a Showdown revival which you would recall ....a skills contest shown during the intermissions of early 1970 CBC TV broadcasts that some likely never watched or heard of before & Jim Pappin was the the first winner and Ranger goalie Gilles Villemure the goalie winner .

This Showdown skills contest by the Ranger coaching staff featured empty net scoring drills . They utilized Buch and Howden in the first contest and Buch passed off 3 times and Howden hit the middle of the empty net 3 times successfully with no defenders in his way . So....with that kind of insight they have to have him out there !!!

All kidding aside....he must have been trusted for his defense .

 

[bl02]

Did you also see who was on the ice for every goal given up to the Caps over the last two games?

Yep I saw including the stick penalty deep in the ozone.

 

[Savant]

If you need to make a move for economic reasons. Could do a lot worse than Conor Garland centric deal

 

[Calad]

Of Rangers penalty killers with 30mins or more spent on the PK, only one has a CF%, FF%, SF% and xGF% below 10. Guess who that is?
Only one F has allowed 7 goals against. Guess who that is?
Only one F has not been on for a single shorthanded goal for. Guess who that is?
Only one F has an on-ice sv% below .850. Guess who that is?

PLAYING A LOT OF SOMETHING DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE ANY GOOD AT IT. AND HOWDEN ISN'T.

Man I really love your random cherry picked stats. Why do we care about a players CF% FF% SF% and xGF% on the PK? These are numbers used to assess 5v5 play, and lets not even bother with the discussion on the merits of these numbers to evaluate a player vs an entire team. It is a reasonable assumption that your team will not have the puck much, if at all, while killing a penalty. The job is not to produce offense at 4 v 5.
Not to mention, comparing his numbers to PKing defensemen are kinda pointless. Are you really surprised he has worse number than Buch and Zibanejad??

 

[The Crypto Guy]

If you need to make a move for economic reasons. Could do a lot worse than Conor Garland centric deal

We dont need more wingers about to get a payday. As it is we already have Buch we need to worry about, and he's highly likely to be traded because of that.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

It's a simple math problem. 15 forwards with Mr. Kravatov probably beginning to play on March 30th or April 1st and not enough playing time to go around. Howden and Lemiuex overall stink, Gauthier could be a 20 goal scorer if you let him develop. Resign Buch and it means only one spot on the top 6 for Laf/Kaako/Kravstov, and the other two are stuck with Chytil on a third line until Strome is gone.

All this and need to find out about Barron at some point, plus need more sandpaper to make the team tougher and can't put all your eggs in the Cullye/Berrard/Vierling basket none of whom will be here before 2023 anyway.

Need to either make a winger for a center move, or go big and brave this summer.

 

[GAGLine]

No, thats not true. They collaborate on who gets in the lineup

They collaborate on call-ups and moves to/from the taxi squad, but Quinn decides on who plays on a nightly basis, with input from his assistants.

Anyone who actually believes that Gorton is dictating lineup changes based on public perception of his trades needs to lay off the drugs. Gorton traded for both Howden and Gauthier, and Gauthier sits plenty.

 

[LokiDog]

They collaborate on call-ups and moves to/from the taxi squad, but Quinn decides on who plays on a nightly basis, with input from his assistants.

Anyone who actually believes that Gorton is dictating lineup changes based on public perception of his trades needs to lay off the drugs. Gorton traded for both Howden and Gauthier, and Gauthier sits plenty.

I’m sure this is right, but I don’t think it’s that black and white. I’m sure Gorton has the ability to say I want you to give Gauthier a longer leash and get him some more looks. Does he feel the need to do that or does he simply trust DQ to make the decisions is a different story, and obviously a GM heavily meddling in that type of personnel management would turn any coach off and create a bad relationship, but it certainly isn’t something that is beyond Gorts purview if he wanted to say, look the TDL is coming up, I’m trying to gauge what I have in this kid and/or boost his value up to include him in a deal to strengthen our club. I’d like it if you could work him into the lineup more, maybe let him slot where Blackwell’s been opposite Panarin for a couple of games. If he’s hurting you, by all means, reel his minutes in but I’d appreciate it if we could get a better look at him to evaluate.