Roster Building/Team Building/Future Trade/Drafting thread.

[SprDaVE]

I'd be down to trade Rielly, but the fact that the media was talking about how much he loves Toronto soon after game 7 is a not so subtle signal that he's going to use that NMC like a sledgehammer.

Maybe a buyout threat gets a change of mind, but I really don't like having cap penalties on the team for the next decade

He's definitely not buyout material or even a dump. I'd only want a tangible return, but that can vary depending on what's out there. I think the Leafs would value him a lot higher than the majority of people here, and I suspect most of the league would too. But it's hard to argue that if the Leafs want to change the core and DNA of this team, Rielly is part of that conversation.

 

[WTFMAN99]

 

[Gaberd2608]

I'd be down to trade Rielly, but the fact that the media was talking about how much he loves Toronto soon after game 7 is a not so subtle signal that he's going to use that NMC like a sledgehammer.

Maybe a buyout threat gets a change of mind, but I really don't like having cap penalties on the team for the next decade

Rielly is not the same as Matthews, Marner, Nylander. He is more like Tavares. While he may want and prefer to stay in Toronto, he is going to be reasonable and be a team player. In exchange Brad will work to send him where he wants to go.

Based on some of the stuff coming out about Marner, it is like he was personally offended that he was asked about a trade. When they negotiate it for huge amounts of money it is just business but when they ask to get traded it is personal ffs.

Rielly doesn't irritate me like the others so I won't be upset if he stays, I just think it is time for a change.

I feel same way about Tavares, the difference is that Tavares as a UF's is easier to walk away from. I think for Tavares to stay the money needs to border on too good to be true. If Brad can give him the Tanev deal I think that would do it. I don't know why Tavares wouldn't go for the money but I guess that would be a player who truly wants to be in Toronto.

 

[rumman]

I'd be down to trade Rielly, but the fact that the media was talking about how much he loves Toronto soon after game 7 is a not so subtle signal that he's going to use that NMC like a sledgehammer.

Maybe a buyout threat gets a change of mind, but I really don't like having cap penalties on the team for the next decade

I wouldn’t buy him out, I’d inform him he’s stapled to the 3rd pairing when he’s not in the press box watching the Leafs play. It’s pretty much the only leverage they have, and regardless of movement clauses nobody wants to be where they’re not welcomed……..

 

[Kiwi]

I'd be down to trade Rielly, but the fact that the media was talking about how much he loves Toronto soon after game 7 is a not so subtle signal that he's going to use that NMC like a sledgehammer.

Maybe a buyout threat gets a change of mind, but I really don't like having cap penalties on the team for the next decade

I'd imagine his contract is bonus loaded so it's almost buyout proof, most of our guys have those types of deals

I'd just play him and pray he's better next season, that's probably the best of a lot of terrible options because there's no way he's waiving imo

 

[SprDaVE]

I'd imagine his contract is bonus loaded so it's almost buyout proof, most of our guys have those types of deals

I'd just play him and pray he's better next season, that's probably the best of a lot of terrible options because there's no way he's waiving imo

His contract doesn't have bonuses anymore. It's all salary from 2025 onward. His buyout would look like this right now:

Buyout Cap Hit
2025-26 $1,633,333
2026-27 $3,633,333
2027-28 $3,633,333
2028-29 $3,633,333
2029-30 $3,633,333
2030-31 $2,133,333
2031-32 $2,133,333
2032-33 $2,133,333
2033-34 $2,133,333
2034-35 $2,133,333

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I still think Pageau should be our target. Islanders fans say his value is a 2nd rounder, which is exactly what we have. He's more of a high end 3C than a 2C but he can matchup against and defend skilled lines. If we could then sign Marchand, that's a pretty darn good line between the two.

Knies - Matthews - Domi
Marchand - Pageau - Nylander

 

[Kiwi]

His contract doesn't have bonuses anymore. It's all salary from 2025 onward. His buyout would look like this right now:

Buyout Cap Hit
2025-26 $1,633,333
2026-27 $3,633,333
2027-28 $3,633,333
2028-29 $3,633,333
2029-30 $3,633,333
2030-31 $2,133,333
2031-32 $2,133,333
2032-33 $2,133,333
2033-34 $2,133,333
2034-35 $2,133,333

It's better than I thought but I can't say it's particularly appealing

 

[SprDaVE]

It's better than I thought but I can't say it's particularly appealing

In a few years if he continues to regress and becomes a detriment and the Leafs can't find a taker or whatever, I think it's fair game. The cap hit length will be shorter and more digestible. Right now though, zero chance they should even look at that. Either push for a trade or help him bounce back. He's got plenty of game left and can still produce.

 

[Menzinger]

His contract doesn't have bonuses anymore. It's all salary from 2025 onward. His buyout would look like this right now:

Buyout Cap Hit
2025-26 $1,633,333
2026-27 $3,633,333
2027-28 $3,633,333
2028-29 $3,633,333
2029-30 $3,633,333
2030-31 $2,133,333
2031-32 $2,133,333
2032-33 $2,133,333
2033-34 $2,133,333
2034-35 $2,133,333

What's particularly unappealing is if the team decides they want to start rebuilding in say 28-29, they could go for 5 year full rebuild cycle and still face two more years of dead capspace when they likely aim to be competitive again. And it only frees up 3.9 mil in capspace for Matthews final two years of his current deal, which isn't that much either.

Its definitely manageable if they decide to do it, but it's still a bit ugly

 

[Legion34]

In a few years if he continues to regress and becomes a detriment and the Leafs can't find a taker or whatever, I think it's fair game. The cap hit length will be shorter and more digestible. Right now though, zero chance they should even look at that. Either push for a trade or help him bounce back. He's got plenty of game left and can still produce.

Yep. Every year the cap goes down by 2 years. Right now we would be holding a retention spot and paying Rielly 3 million not to play for us.

What d man are we signing for 4-5 million who will he better than Reilly in a 95 cap hit market?

We have to hope he slims down and gains speed. Even if we kept him for 2 more years the buyout would be way easier to deal with

 

[LeafEgo]

Aaron Ekblad if at all possible.

Otherwise a Shayne Ghostisbhere could do his job at a fraction of the cost with zero job security which someone else mentioned.

But I dislike Mo Rielly more than a lot of other fans and think there are so many bugs in his game that we’re not really even talking about a $7.5 million Dman. He’s a fan favorite for some people so I think we will just have to agree to disagree that $8 million couldn’t be thrown around irresponsibly and still yield better results.

Ghost is a really good one. If we can get Ghost we can move Rielly out.

 

[hamzarocks]

His contract doesn't have bonuses anymore. It's all salary from 2025 onward. His buyout would look like this right now:

Buyout Cap Hit
2025-26 $1,633,333
2026-27 $3,633,333
2027-28 $3,633,333
2028-29 $3,633,333
2029-30 $3,633,333
2030-31 $2,133,333
2031-32 $2,133,333
2032-33 $2,133,333
2033-34 $2,133,333
2034-35 $2,133,333

If we bought him out in the summer of 2026 would the cap hits change?

He would have 4 years left so 8 year buyout. I think a buyout pay 2/3rds of remaining AAV for Rielly since he's older than 26

He would be left with 6M salary per year for 4 years so 24M total.

If we bought out then, i think we would incur on avg 2M per year over 8 years for total of 16M.

It would be more sensible to wait another year and give him another shot to bounce back. If he's back to being a good top pairing D, then we either keep him another year or two for contention or deal him at a surplus trade.

If he sucks, then 2M AAV would give us 4M - 5.5M savings from 2026-2027 to 2029-2030 and only 2M-3M dead cap hit when the cap will be 120M+ range at which point a 1% dead cap hit doesn't sting

 

[hamzarocks]

Ghost is a really good one. If we can get Ghost we can move Rielly out.

We need Ghost & Rielly.

We need rielly to bounce back and become a top pairing D again. Or need to get someone of that level to replace him

Then we need to upgrade Benoit or Carlo to Ghost but LHD vs RHD issues do come up

 

[Americanadian]

Ghost is a really good one. If we can get Ghost we can move Rielly out.

I'm the one who brought up Ghost as an example of how teams have found Rielly level production in UFA for less than 7.5M. I doubt Carolina is moving him - unless they really want to bring Orlov back.

 

[Menzinger]

16 million over 2 years probably gets it done.

 

[Kiwi]

In a few years if he continues to regress and becomes a detriment and the Leafs can't find a taker or whatever, I think it's fair game. The cap hit length will be shorter and more digestible. Right now though, zero chance they should even look at that. Either push for a trade or help him bounce back. He's got plenty of game left and can still produce.

Yeah I'd bury him in the offensive zone and get him out there in attacking situations
We may need a PP QB on the 1st unit again if Marner goes to

 

[LeafChief]

Here is my pie-in-the-sky current hope of what they will do this off-season.

Trades:
- Kampf to NJ for a late pick (re-unite with Keefe)
- Jarnkrok to Nashville for a late pick (re-unite with Trotz)
- McMann and Robertson (RFA right) to Dallas for Marchment (Dallas needs to clear cap - Marchment has 1x4.5 left on his contract)
- Trade Benoit to Colorado (try to cash in on his solid playoffs - maybe you can grab a 2nd or a 3rd out of this)

RFA Signings:
- Knies: 3 x $5,750,000 (bridge)
- Villeneuve (2 x $850k - had a pretty good year with the Marlies and can move the puck. Allows for OEL to move back to the left side of the ice)
- Certainly they will sign other RFAs but these are the only two I will focus on for the purpose of this exercise

UFA Signings:
- Patrick Kane: 1 x $3,457,100 (estimated value as per Cap Wages - replaces some of Marner's offense with Matthews line)
- Sam Bennett: 7 x $8,300,000 (will likely not age well but this is the best thing they can do too change the attitude of this team)
- Tanner Jeannot: 2 x $1,423,453 (estimated value as per Cap Wages - he's not as good as Tampa thought he was by giving up an entire draft class for him but he's in his 20's and he's a mean son-of-a-bitch)
- Brandon Tanev: 4 x $2,000,000 (similarly to his brother, gets to come home and gets some term on a low salary)

Lineup:

Domi - Matthews - Kane
Knies - Bennett - Nylander
Marchment - Tavares - Cowan
Jeannot - Laughton - Tanev
Lorentz

McCabe - Tanev
Rielly - Carlo
OEL - Villeneuve
Myers

Stolarz
Woll

$926.2k in salary cap space. It's not perfect but it's June and I'm curious to see what others think.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Screw it go for the extreme cup winner team.

Knies Matthews Nylander
Marchand Bennett Cowan
Marchment Toews Kane
Lorentz Laughton Tanev

 

[Legion34]

With Tavares getting 3 x7.5 that’s 22.5

Tavares at 5.5 x4 might be realistic

 

[Zero1]

Let’s get that AAV for Tavares as low as possible. Give him 8 years for all I care.

$3 mill AAV x 8.

 

[Americanadian]

Looking at some potential breakout options on the back end:

Darren Raddysh: my first choice. Big RHD who put up 70 points the last 2 seasons. We'll see what Tampa does this off-season to their defense and up front. Raddysh is an analytics darling offensively and defensively. He has played a ton with Hedman since he broke into the NHL but he has lost that spot to Moser. He is currently 3RD with Tampa but if they trade for a defenseman (I can definitely see them trading Moser+Geekie for Andersson) and/or sign Perbix he'd become expendable. Tampa wants big and fast forwards to fill out their bottom 6. McMann for Raddysh with an add from Toronto makes a ton of sense for both teams. Both players are pending UFA's.

Justin Barron: one of the fastest defenseman in the NHL. He has decent size and most importantly he shoots right. He went from playing under 15 minutes/night with MTL to playing over 18 a night with Nashville and his underlying numbers took off with Nashville. He has not shown a ton of offensive flair at the NHL level but he has a decent history of production in the OHL and AHL. I am not sure if Nashville would move him - it depends what direction the team is going in as they currently only have two RHD. I would think Florida's 2025 2nd (63OA) and Villeneuve could get it done. Maybe less, maybe more.

Declan Chisholm: LHD - only an option if Rielly or Benoit is moved out. Very interesting player. He's put up elite defensive impacts at the NHL level but has been a point producer at every level before the NHL. He primarily played as the defensive option next to Spurgeon this season. Does he have more to offer if he's paired with a defense first defnseman and given the leash to play more offensively? I imagine the acquisition price will be very cheap (4th or 5th) with Buium coming in for the Wild. This would be a huge upside pick up. He'd be the first Bowmanville native to play for the Leafs since Nieuwendyk.

Nick Perbix: The most underrated UFA RHD. I am not sure if Tampa brings him back but if they don't he will probably command 2-2.5M. Big defenseman who almost exclusively played 3RD alongside Lilleberg in Tampa this season. Averages 23P/82GP through his first 3 seasons - all of those points have been at ES. He will be very young for a UFA (freshly 27). Strong potential to outproduce a 2.5Mx4 contract on the 3rd pairing and provide adequate offense.

 

[Americanadian]

Here is my pie-in-the-sky current hope of what they will do this off-season.

Trades:
- Kampf to NJ for a late pick (re-unite with Keefe)
- Jarnkrok to Nashville for a late pick (re-unite with Trotz)
- McMann and Robertson (RFA right) to Dallas for Marchment (Dallas needs to clear cap - Marchment has 1x4.5 left on his contract)
- Trade Benoit to Colorado (try to cash in on his solid playoffs - maybe you can grab a 2nd or a 3rd out of this)

RFA Signings:
- Knies: 3 x $5,750,000 (bridge)
- Villeneuve (2 x $850k - had a pretty good year with the Marlies and can move the puck. Allows for OEL to move back to the left side of the ice)
- Certainly they will sign other RFAs but these are the only two I will focus on for the purpose of this exercise

UFA Signings:
- Patrick Kane: 1 x $3,457,100 (estimated value as per Cap Wages - replaces some of Marner's offense with Matthews line)
- Sam Bennett: 7 x $8,300,000 (will likely not age well but this is the best thing they can do too change the attitude of this team)
- Tanner Jeannot: 2 x $1,423,453 (estimated value as per Cap Wages - he's not as good as Tampa thought he was by giving up an entire draft class for him but he's in his 20's and he's a mean son-of-a-bitch)
- Brandon Tanev: 4 x $2,000,000 (similarly to his brother, gets to come home and gets some term on a low salary)

Lineup:

Domi - Matthews - Kane
Knies - Bennett - Nylander
Marchment - Tavares - Cowan
Jeannot - Laughton - Tanev
Lorentz

McCabe - Tanev
Rielly - Carlo
OEL - Villeneuve
Myers

Stolarz
Woll

$926.2k in salary cap space. It's not perfect but it's June and I'm curious to see what others think.

Benoit to Colorado makes a ton of sense - glad to see one other person agree. I do think Berube would want at minimum a 2nd RS F, probably 3.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

16 million over 2 years probably gets it done.

I'd do that easy. I'd try to get him on a Tanev special though, to get the cap hit down with more term. 16 million over 4 years.

 

[LeafEgo]

I'm the one who brought up Ghost as an example of how teams have found Rielly level production in UFA for less than 7.5M. I doubt Carolina is moving him - unless they really want to bring Orlov back.

And therein lies the rub - not easy to get an acceptable replacement.

Our D corps is pretty solid. The fragility of the system is that we only have one offensive piece, whom can transition, maintain offensive pressure, and support superstars against top competition - even in the playoffs. Warts aside.

If we had a second one, you could take a gamble on trying to select the 'next' Ghost - scramble mid season if it doesn't work out.

But given our contending status, and our current crop, we can only replace Rielly with a known commodity, like Ghost, otherwise you are taking on too much risk for a top contending team.

The only reason we are one step away from making sense of a Rielly move is because Tre secured a 3rd top-4 d man in Carlo. But that last step is tricky.