Value of: Ross Colton to New Jersey

[Forge]

I'm just not sure that picking Barclay Goodrows, Blake Colemans, and Ross Coltons off the Tampa roster is necessarily the most sound cap strategy. They seem to be a factory for these sort of "good bottom-6 forwards" who they move on from just as their contract demands get a bit too lofty.

Tampa might be in a bit of a pickle this year...with the Jeannot deal going so sideways. I think he was supposed to be the next in line through that machine. But with him fitting in poorly and Killorn also potentially walking for a bigger paycheque...that might pressure Tampa to actually try to keep Colton for an extra year.


Palat has looked like a solid pickup for the Devils...but he had shown that he was really more of a Top-6 forward pushed down at times due to depth. I'm not sure Colton has fully established that credibility yet. Feels more like the opposite scenario.

Just not sure i'd want to be betting against Tampa when it comes to deciding when to part ways with a good bottom-6 forward like that over contract terms/cost. Which would presumably be what it is about, if they move Colton rather than keeping him.

Heck, i'd probably rather offer them something smaller to try recoup something out of the Jeannot disaster, and try him as a cheap reclamation project myself.

But here's the thing...there's really no evidence that the guys that Tampa loses stop being the guys they were? Just don't give them stupid contracts is all.

Tyler Johnson is still Tyler johnson. After an injury killed first season in Chicago, he was at 2.1 points / 60 this year, which is the highest he's been since 18-19. Gourde's points per 60 his two years in seattle is 2.1, which fits right into his last three years in Tampa at 1.9 / 2.3 / 2.3. Goodrow's production in terms of points is stable with New York which is also the same as it was in San Jose. Coleman has had a slight dip - he was 1.95 / 60 over his tenure with Tampa - the years prior he was 1.6 and 1.9 with New Jersey and subsequently he has been 1.6 and 1.8 with calgary.

JT Miller had a huge come up after leaving tampa. Verhaeghe as well.

They aren't losing these guys because they don't want them in some cases. They have no choice in a lot of these instances. The good thing for Tampa is that these circumstances are putting them into a spot where they actually can't afford the bad years of some of these guys, which actually works for them. They are mostly getting the primes of these guys and letting others end up with the poor back end of a these guys careers. They staggered the no trades and contract lengths pretty well, all things considered. It's pretty impressive lol. These guys are getting older as they leave Tampa and that really has to be considered.

Now, I wouldn't want to be giving Killorn 6 million for 3 years this season which is probably around what he'll get, and I didn't love 6 million for 5 years for Palat, but those are mostly age related. I'm very wary of contracts like that to guys 30+.

the thing I like about Colton is that his contract projection is less than 3.5 million for 4 years last I saw. If he does nothing but give you exactly what he has been doing with Tampa in 12 minutes a night, the contract is absolutely fine. Its not even a bad contract. But if he does happen to blossom in a bigger role, you may have one of the better bargains in hockey. Now, if his contract ends up being higher than that...there's a point where the risk is no longer worth the reward. Right now this is just based on projections.

But I'm not afraid of taking the guys that Tampa can't keep.

 

[Guttersniped]

Goodrow was a 28 year old UFA when the Rangers signed him. Coleman was a 29 year old UFA when the Flames signed him.

He’s younger and still an RFA, a 4 year deal ends when he’s 30, not sure how that’s like Palat. Plus he’s a local and grew up a diehard Devils fan. The idea would be he’s not completely cashing out but signing some sort of reasonable deal.

And Palat ended with 7 points in the playoffs, which tied in him for 2nd overall. Not sure how people were still disappointed with him after seeing that he’s still basically the same player in the playoffs.

 

[biturbo19]

But here's the thing...there's really no evidence that the guys that Tampa loses stop being the guys they were? Just don't give them stupid contracts is all.

Tyler Johnson is still Tyler johnson. After an injury killed first season in Chicago, he was at 2.1 points / 60 this year, which is the highest he's been since 18-19. Gourde's points per 60 his two years in seattle is 2.1, which fits right into his last three years in Tampa at 1.9 / 2.3 / 2.3. Goodrow's production in terms of points is stable with New York which is also the same as it was in San Jose. Coleman has had a slight dip - he was 1.95 / 60 over his tenure with Tampa - the years prior he was 1.6 and 1.9 with New Jersey and subsequently he has been 1.6 and 1.8 with calgary.

JT Miller had a huge come up after leaving tampa. Verhaeghe as well.

They aren't losing these guys because they don't want them in some cases. They have no choice in a lot of these instances. The good thing for Tampa is that these circumstances are putting them into a spot where they actually can't afford the bad years of some of these guys, which actually works for them. They are mostly getting the primes of these guys and letting others end up with the poor back end of a these guys careers. They staggered the no trades and contract lengths pretty well, all things considered. It's pretty impressive lol. These guys are getting older as they leave Tampa and that really has to be considered.

Now, I wouldn't want to be giving Killorn 6 million for 3 years this season which is probably around what he'll get, and I didn't love 6 million for 5 years for Palat, but those are mostly age related. I'm very wary of contracts like that to guys 30+.

the thing I like about Colton is that his contract projection is less than 3.5 million for 4 years last I saw. If he does nothing but give you exactly what he has been doing with Tampa in 12 minutes a night, the contract is absolutely fine. Its not even a bad contract. But if he does happen to blossom in a bigger role, you may have one of the better bargains in hockey. Now, if his contract ends up being higher than that...there's a point where the risk is no longer worth the reward. Right now this is just based on projections.

But I'm not afraid of taking the guys that Tampa can't keep.

I don't think some of those guys are really the same case. Including Palat. A lot of them had either established themselves as true Top-6 contributors, or had an unusual late career breakout out of nowhere like Verhaege once he left.

It's not that guys like Goodrow and Coleman stopped being useful bottom-6 players. It's just that the bolded is really hard to avoid in these cases. Tampa lets them go because they've assessed that they can't afford that "market rate" on them as bottom-6 guys. Even when you get a "typical UFA premium market value" deal like Goodrow...it's not like it's terrible, but it ultimately ends up being something they want out of, well before it's over. The reality is...Tampa seem to use up most of these bottom-6 players prime, then let somebody else soak up the last year or two on a UFA Premium rate contract that lasts twice that long or more.

It's where Tampa identified the importance of getting overcontributing cap value from those bottom-6/depth players. You can afford to pay your top or key guys, but paying "market rate" especially for roughly UFA-aged bottom-6ers is where you can lose a million in cap here and there and very quickly end up with too much money invested in your bottom-6 to afford great depth.

If you've got even half your bottom-6 making UFA market rate...you've basically lost $3-7M worth of other roster opportunities. That can be a big difference.


I'd take Goodrow on my team as a bottom-6 player any day. But with 4 more years @ $3.6m and ticking over 30 i wouldn't. That becomes a very difficult contract to move. There's a good chance that's what happens when you pick a bottom-6 guy off their roster that they're ready to move on from. Better to just invest bigger at the top of the roster, and use that to push solid players internally down your depth chart instead.

 

[JTBF81]

If Brisebois shops Colton, and that’s a big if since he‘s projected to be a top 6 player for Tampa, it won’t be on the cheap. If they trade him, Tampa will be getting positions of need that can contribute now and not magic beans or B level prospects that won’t be of much help for awhile, if ever. As Killorn is probably going to leave via ufa, there’s basically no chance Colton is then moved.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't think some of those guys are really the same case. Including Palat. A lot of them had either established themselves as true Top-6 contributors, or had an unusual late career breakout out of nowhere like Verhaege once he left.

It's not that guys like Goodrow and Coleman stopped being useful bottom-6 players. It's just that the bolded is really hard to avoid in these cases. Tampa lets them go because they've assessed that they can't afford that "market rate" on them as bottom-6 guys. Even when you get a "typical UFA premium market value" deal like Goodrow...it's not like it's terrible, but it ultimately ends up being something they want out of, well before it's over. The reality is...Tampa seem to use up most of these bottom-6 players prime, then let somebody else soak up the last year or two on a UFA Premium rate contract that lasts twice that long or more.

It's where Tampa identified the importance of getting overcontributing cap value from those bottom-6/depth players. You can afford to pay your top or key guys, but paying "market rate" especially for roughly UFA-aged bottom-6ers is where you can lose a million in cap here and there and very quickly end up with too much money invested in your bottom-6 to afford great depth.

If you've got even half your bottom-6 making UFA market rate...you've basically lost $3-7M worth of other roster opportunities. That can be a big difference.


I'd take Goodrow on my team as a bottom-6 player any day. But with 4 more years @ $3.6m and ticking over 30 i wouldn't. That becomes a very difficult contract to move. There's a good chance that's what happens when you pick a bottom-6 guy off their roster that they're ready to move on from. Better to just invest bigger at the top of the roster, and use that to push solid players internally down your depth chart instead.

I think it’s simply less complicated. They’ve spent a ton of draft assets to get cheap value contracts in the short term because of their cap crunch due to the flat cap.

They were especially aggressive at the 2020 TDL because the cap had just froze. Before LTIR saved the day Brisebois thought he was going to have to toss more bodies for cap space.

So he paid a ton to have Goodrow at 925k and Coleman at 1.8m in 2020-21. He went back to well with Hagel, who has 2 years/1.5m.

They needed very productive bargains because that’s all they can afford.

This isn’t workable, repeatable long term strategy to keep getting players because they’ll eventually bleed out in terms of assets. They also need to get back to drafting more.

Jeannot was an odder trade, because he actually isn’t cost controlled as an arbitration eligible RFA, but he can get a cheap bridge deal.

The best strategy is to develop these types of players yourself, Tampa has done it in the past, but when you’re contending you don’t have time to wait on development.

Goodrow’s contract was always a bad idea, he isn’t the type of player you sign to an 6 year/3.64m deal ending when he’s 34.

 

[biturbo19]

I think it’s simply less complicated. They’ve spent a ton of draft assets to get cheap value contracts in the short term because of their cap crunch due to the flat cap.

They were especially aggressive at the 2020 TDL because the cap had just froze. Before LTIR saved the day Brisebois thought he was going to have to toss more bodies for cap space.

So he paid a ton to have Goodrow at 925k and Coleman at 1.8m in 2020-21. He went back to well with Hagel, who has 2 years/1.5m.

They needed very productive bargains because that’s all they can afford.

This isn’t workable, repeatable long term strategy to keep getting players because they’ll eventually bleed out in terms of assets. They also need to get back to drafting more.

Jeannot was an odder trade, because he actually isn’t cost controlled as an arbitration eligible RFA, but he can get a cheap bridge deal.

The best strategy is to develop these types of players yourself, Tampa has done it in the past, but when you’re contending you don’t have time to wait on development.

Goodrow’s contract was always a bad idea, he isn’t the type of player you sign to an 6 year/3.64m deal ending when he’s 34.

I don't know how unsustainable it really is. As long as your top, core players are still at the top of their game...investing futures in getting cheap "value contract" bottom-6ers is effectively just accelerating your timeline to contribution and mitigating risk. It's a "low upside" proposition, but it's also a very "high floor" sort of situation generally.

Especially when you can occasionally still move those pieces or even their negotiating rights when their value contract is used up to to recoup more capital to invest in other cheap bottom-6ers. And especially if you get a true Top-6er like Hagel here and there.


The problem comes when you whiff on one of those cheap effective bottom-6ers like Jeannot. That's a problem now. He'll be cheap now...but not sure he'll be effective for them. So they're probably in a bit of a scramble mode.

That's where i could see them moving Colton for futures...which they can then flip for some other depth player they've identified on a cheap multi-year contract. Or just swapping him for a grab bag of cheap young depth players they like. At least, that's what i'd expect Brisebois to be looking around trying to do this summer. I just have a hard time seeing them giving him the market value ~$4M sort of deal he'll likely command. Unless he's content to sign a cheaper 1-year deal betting on himself...in which case he won't be moved.

But that means...if you're acquiring Colton...you're falling right into that trap of paying a Tampa bottom-6er that premium market value, and giving up decent assets as well in the process. If you're really convinced he's going to break out as a surefire Top-6 guy for you...i guess it's workable. I just wouldn't be betting on that. I'm not sure he's an entirely different enough player from the other bottom-6 guys whose contracts were a bit of a mistake. And again, if Tampa are moving him...they're doing it because he wants that premium $$$ contract and they don't think he's going to be a bona fide impact Top-6 guy for them, or they'd probably happily pay him that $4M or so.

 

[AndreRoy]

And Palat ended with 7 points in the playoffs, which tied in him for 2nd overall. Not sure how people were still disappointed with him after seeing that he’s still basically the same player in the playoffs.

Being injured and/or somewhat underwhelming in the regular season but beastly in the postseason is kind of Palat’s thing. He didn’t become Tampa’s all-time leader in playoff GWGs by accident, nor is it an accident (though there were other factors involved as well) that in the first year of his absence the Bolts failed to get out of the first round.

 

[Zippy316]

If Brisebois shops Colton, and that’s a big if since he‘s projected to be a top 6 player for Tampa, it won’t be on the cheap. If they trade him, Tampa will be getting positions of need that can contribute now and not magic beans or B level prospects that won’t be of much help for awhile, if ever. As Killorn is probably going to leave via ufa, there’s basically no chance Colton is then moved.

I know it’s been floated on the Devils side, but Sharangovich for Colton would make some sense on the Devils end.

Close to an even swap in terms of age, potential, and production, just stylistic differences between the two players.

 

[JTBF81]

I know it’s been floated on the Devils side, but Sharangovich for Colton would make some sense on the Devils end.

Close to an even swap in terms of age, potential, and production, just stylistic differences between the two players.

I don't see it for Tampa. Sharangovich isn't an upgrade or a big need, is coming iff a down year, and he also needs a new contract that likely won't be much cheaper than Colton. For an extra 500k-1 million, Tampa would just keep Colton. I think Tampa would target Bahl+maybe Boqvist for Colton+something I'm sure. Bahl and Boqvist would likely be able to be signed and fit with Tampa's cap, and since in this scenario Killorn would've taken a team friendly deal to stay, the top 6 would be set with Boqvist then on the 3rd with likely Paul and Jeannot.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Alex Chauvacy wrote about this and I don’t get it. NJ has too many wingers already. If they have a chance to add a game breaker, sure, but I don’t see how Colton is such a big upgrade over what they have in their bottom six and their system.

the Devils have a grand total of 3 wingers signed for next season. I guess four if you include Holtz.

 

[Blackjack]

the Devils have a grand total of 3 wingers signed for next season. I guess four if you include Holtz.

Great

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Eklund saying this is happening at the draft...


Good to know there is no chance Colton heads to NJ. LMAO

 

[Petes2424]

It’s been real quiet on the Colton front. Still say the Sens make a play on him.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Eklund saying this is happening at the draft...


Good to know there is no chance Colton heads to NJ. LMAO

Haha came here to say this

 

[AZviaNJ]

If Brisebois shops Colton, and that’s a big if since he‘s projected to be a top 6 player for Tampa, it won’t be on the cheap. If they trade him, Tampa will be getting positions of need that can contribute now and not magic beans or B level prospects that won’t be of much help for awhile, if ever. As Killorn is probably going to leave via ufa, there’s basically no chance Colton is then moved.

Seeing what Montreal gave up for Newhook (FLA 1st + 2nd) could set the market. Colton is older and plays wing....but is a much better player at this point.

I think a lot of GM's would be in on Colton. Bahl+ is the type offer it would take from the Devils.....I don't think Fitz would do that.

Eklund saying this is happening at the draft...


Good to know there is no chance Colton heads to NJ. LMAO

that's confirmation he re-signs with Tampa

 

[JTBF81]

Seeing what Montreal gave up for Newhook (FLA 1st + 2nd) could set the market. Colton is older and plays wing....but is a much better player at this point.

I think a lot of GM's would be in on Colton. Bahl+ is the type offer it would take from the Devils.....I don't think Fitz would do that.


that's confirmation he re-signs with Tampa

I agree, if N.J. was interested, for it to make sense for where Tampa is and thelr positional needs, Bahl+Boqvist or McLeod for Colton+ is probably what Tampa would want. I can't see Tampa moving him for picks unless it was part of a larger, multi-team deal where Tampa quickly moved them for players that help now.