Roman Cechmanek vs John Vanbiesbrouck

[Doctor No]

Here we are talking about 3 seasons and 2319 shots for the non Cechmanek shots against faced, not something easy to move a lot in either direction by a couple of bad games.

If we start with 2087 saves on 2319 shots (90%), then a single game of (say) 14 saves on 20 shots moves the overall save percentage by 0.002 (from 0.900 to 0.898). Doesn't take much.

 

[MadLuke]

If we start with 2087 saves on 2319 shots (90%), then a single game of (say) 14 saves on 20 shots moves the overall save percentage by 0.002 (from 0.900 to 0.898). Doesn't take much.

Does not take much to change it by almost nothing letting 2% more shots go in (that home vs road, margin of error type of difference), yes, would take a lot to explain letting 33% more shots going in.

 

[Doctor No]

Does not take much to change it by almost nothing letting 2% more shots go in (that home vs road, margin of error type of difference), yes, would take a lot to explain letting 33% more shots going in.

I might need some education on what we're arguing about, because at least in this case:

2000-2001 Philadelphia Flyers Goaltender Game-by-Game Performance

Boucher had the opposite situation as we're describing - he had mostly poor games (red) and very few good games (green).

<insert standard caveats regarding save percentage>

 

[MadLuke]

talking about :
Why from 00-02 does

Cechmanek win 53% of his start and block .923 of the shots while the other Flyers goaltenders win only 43% of their starts blocking only .897 of the shots if he was not really good at blocking shots ?

They blocked 2080 of 2319 shots vs 3657 of 3963, won 38 of 89 starts versus 92 out of 157.

 

[The Pale King]

Did a teammate, high profile or not, ever call out Thomas for substandard play? I mentioned that Roenick quote already upthread... It's pretty much as damning a soundbite you'll hear from teammates.

I actually can't think of a worse one. That has to play a big part in people's perceptions of Cechmanek.

Whereas it's easier to remember (imagine?) Thomas going out in a self-inflicted way with all the politics and bunker stuff. Easy to forget the ugly seasons where he bounced around wearing some of the worst pillow/jersey combinations known to man.

 

[K Fleur]

I mean Roenick is an asshole so a quote from him is kinda whatever.

Easier to blame your goalie for losing a series than holding yourself accountable for scoring…or wait actually not scoring in the same series.

 

[Dingo]

Look, I don't ask for much...I try to be a strong contributor as best as I can. I'm taking this off the ice here...I legitimately need some help here.

When I say that Thomas wasn't good enough for the NHL, I get told that, "It's not his fault the league failed to notice"

When I say, he was cut from every training camp, he wasn't good enough to stick in the AHL generally...I get told that he got Vermont (not so much HOFer Martin St. Louis) to the Frozen Four...

...and that he was won the equivalent to the Vezina in the Finnish League. Furthered by the notion that in 2005, this meant even more because it was "full of NHL talent" because of the lockout.

Nothing about being beaten out by substandard players internationally for years and then being a net-negative when he did play. Nothing about the gaps in his resume. When he wasn't good enough after leaving Julien, it was just because he was old...even though his supposed prime season is at age 37, which no one finds the least bit odd...

So, I'm asking for help here...

We have, charitably...
1995 2nd Team (East) (there are no NHLers on this second-team with him, first team guy was a career ECHLer)
1996 1st Team (East) /Goalie of the Year in college (1st Team does have majority NHLers on it, two of which from his own team; the next four 1st Teamers combine for 0 NHL games).

For him, and only him, these amateur seasons against competition worse than any major junior league count. No one knows why, but they do. Even against Carey Price, they apparently count. Fine.

1997 - [Scene missing]

1998 - Best goalie in Finland. Now, he only played 18 of 48 games. Of the league's 10 best scorers, only one had a regular NHL shift at any point - Lasse Pirjeta with the expansion Blue Jackets. To be fair, the goalie competition in the league is noteworthy: Jussi Markkanen, a young Mika Noronen, Vesa Toskala - fair. Now, those guys had to play more than one-third of a season, but games played is not a huge deal...anymore.

1999 - Booted from the AHL, goes back to Finland.
2000 - Worst goalie on his IHL team by as much as 1 whole goal per game (!)
2001 - Back to Europe, now he's in Sweden. No awards, but does have the best save pct. over there and he played a whole season's worth of games. He beats out Mikael Tellqvist, which isn't bad. This is a big step up. The Swedish League is led by Kristian Huselius, Jorgen Jonsson, Mikael Renberg, young Zetterberg. Good season. Is this the, what, 3rd best league in the world at this point? 4th?

2002 - Bumped back down to Finland, splits time with a nobody.

2003 - Comes to the AHL, splits time with Raycroft. Raycroft is considerably better statistically, we don't need to talk about it.

2004 - Still AHL, splits time with Hannu Toivonen. He statistically bests him. Gets slaughtered in a short playoffs. Still, a very nice season statistically.

2005 - Back to Finland. Best goalie and MVP. Liiga has more, I don't know, downhill, grindy style of play than the Swedish or Russian or Swiss Leagues...so when folks try to sell me that the league was full of talent spillover from the lockout, I get interested...

There were two NHL regulars that were top 10 in scoring that year...Jussi Jokinen and Glen Metropolit. The league leader was Steve Kariya. Guys like Jason Williams and Patrik Stefan were point per game guys. Once again, I'll say the goaltending competition was there. He did beat out some good goalies for the level. But he wasn't going against Thornton and Lecavalier. It was still a low-talent league. I don't think Liiga is a top 5 league in the world even in the lockout year, but he made the best of it and his familiarity with Finland makes sense for him to go back. Fine.

Then the NHL stuff starts and ends just as quickly...

So, we got 2 amateur seasons that somehow sort of count. We have one-third of a Finnish season that counts as a whole. Let's go with the '01 Swedish season, let's go with the '04 AHL season, the '05 lockout season. And then, what, 3 NHL seasons? 4?

So, we have 4+3.3 pro seasons. So, let's call it 8, charitably. And then two amateur seasons, which again, it would be extremely unique to count these in the last 50 years.

##

Roman Cechmanek
1989 - He started in Czech U20 league as an 18 year old, no clue how that went. Let's assume bad even though he played most of the games. Got a silver at the Euro U18 tournament. I'd say this is probably on the same level as Thomas' 1995. But **** it...throw it out.

1991 - Already a pro in Czechoslovakia at 20. His team wins a championship that year. I doubt he started, but I don't know. He puts up the best numbers at the World Juniors in a tournament with Lindros, Bure, Weight, Nylander, etc. His goalie competition is Potvin, Dunham, Salo...those are names. I don't know, I feel like for an amateur season, this is pretty good. Maybe not...

Effectively, we don't have records until 1994. He has the best GAA in the Czech2 league by a whole goal per game over the next guy in the league and gets his team promoted to the top Czech League. That's a huge season.

1995 - League's best goalie, stat leader, wins a championship. This is a better league than Finland's in terms of scoring talent. Worse in terms of goaltending, I'd think.
1996 - League's best goalie, wins another championship. Gold medal at the Worlds.
1997 - League's best goalie, stat leader, wins a championship as the playoff MVP. I mentioned it upthread who the top talents were in this league already, so I won't do that again here. The goalie talent seems weaker, the only NHL name I recognize is Milan Hnlicka. Still...these are, comparatively, dynamite seasons.

1998 - Would you believe it? Best goalie, stat leader, champion. European League's best goalie.
1999 - I'm sorry, this isn't a c&p error because it's too good not to type. Same thing. Best goalie, best stats, champion. World Championships Gold. And he actually plays in these international competitions that I'm mentioning. He doesn't sit behind Patrick Duffus and the like.

2000 - Finally takes a break. Gets to the Final and doesn't win. But is named Best Goaltender at the Worlds while winning another gold there. So, not nothin'...playing 8 games at the Worlds is like playing 18 regular season games in Finland basically.

Then the NHL stuff...where we also have 3, if not 4 terrific seasons based on the previous logic.

2007 - Best playoff save pct. in Czech, top 3 player on World Champs team.

Didn't get the run support in the playoffs like Thomas did. He wins a Vezina if Hasek isn't in the way. If he were blocked by Steve Mason, well, he wouldn't be blocked at all...

So, the NHL regular seasons are a wash. Right? It's either 3 to 3 or 4 to 4. Cechmanek had much tougher competition for goalie votes (Brodeur/Hasek/Roy/Belfour/CuJo, Theodore's MVP season).

Let's give just 1 amateur season to Cechmanek because we don't have more records available than that.

Then we have six absolute dynamite seasons in a row, I think every one of them is better than any of Thomas' minor pro seasons legitimately.

RC's 2000 season is probably a wash with Thomas' 2004 or close to it.

So...basically. And again, we don't care how...we just care about "what actually happened"...

We have
2 amateur, 4 minor pro, and 4 NHL seasons for Thomas
1+ amateur, 6 or 7 minor pro, and 4 NHL seasons for Cechmanek

We see in the minor pro years and international competition that playoff play is actually a strength of Cechmanek's, where it's a weakness for Thomas. Even in the NHL, we saw that it was a weakness for Thomas. But we do have the one playoff run in 2011.

Now, is that run - where 9 of 25 games saw him surrender 3+ goals and get 81 goals scored on his behalf...is that run enough to wipe out at least 3 of Cechmanek's seasons? Maybe. Maybe it is. That really puts a damper on being the best goalie twice in Finland, but no matter...maybe it does.

So, let's be painfully "fair" to Thomas...let's make those 25 games be the ultimate cancel. Because clearly, Cechmanek has a huge advantage on him in impact seasons by any stretch of the imagination. So whatever Cechmanek has, it's washed by the 2011 playoffs.

Thomas made the top 40 goalie list last time. Cechmanek, according to VI, doesn't even get considered in the double secret basement league some-time draft...so, I guess that's not top 100? 150? Whatever...

One question: Logically, how is the gap that big?

do players ever get better or worse? was he a cokehead? Maybe he learned or adapted, or got his life together?

Brett Hull was just a fat, lazy spoiled f*** playing in Penticton at one time.

I admit the career arc was unusual, but for 7 years he was a true NHL starter. He was very good for 5, and incredible for a three year span. Then he was old.

Datsyuk wasnt Datsyuk until he was 28. It isnt unheard of.

You can pin it on the Bruins D, but Thomas and Rask were literally vying for that starter role, back and forth. If Rask is a great goalie, Thomas was at least a good goalie, no matter how he looks to your eyes, or how bad he was in his twenties.

 

[Michael Farkas]

do players ever get better or worse?

Certainly. But in your athletic prime being not good enough for not only the NHL, but also the AHL, and IHL...let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say RSL is off the table...not good enough for Sweden. So we're not in a top 5 LEAGUE in the world.

Then blah blah blah...up and down, up and down...and then in his mid 30s a save pct record*, two best goalie awards, a Smythe...and then his situation changes and he's not close to that level?

Better or worse is like 38 goals one year, 29 the next...not 63 goals and then not able to stay above water in the AHL, right? Like, that's way too much variance for it to be pinned on the player, reasonably.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Datsyuk wasnt Datsyuk until he was 28. It isnt unheard of.

I don't agree with this either, conceptually. Datsyuk was quite steady technically throughout his career. The stat sheet is different because of opportunity and circumstance.

If you watched Datsyuk five years before your benchmark, you'd have to be blindfolded to not see what he was capable of being and, to some degree, was...

And you highlight it perfectly really...production doesn't define the player. There is some general correlation, of course. There is some up and down in performance. But when it's so far out of reasonable bounds like Thomas...it needs to be evaluated very closely.

 

[GKJ]

Cechmanek - a Flyers goaltender - once played in an all star game

 

[The Pale King]

I mean Roenick is an asshole so a quote from him is kinda whatever.

Easier to blame your goalie for losing a series than holding yourself accountable for scoring…or wait actually not scoring in the same series.

Of course he is. I'm just thinking about how important a quote like that is when talking about our perceptions of a player 20 years later.

In Game 5, Cechmanek more or less took himself out of the game after Ottawa opened a 4-1 lead in the second period. The next day at practice, Jeremy Roenick and others shot pucks at Cechmanek’s head. Head coach Ken Hitchcock elected to start Cechmanek in Game 6 in Philadelphia, although his teammates strongly preferred Esche to get the opportunity. The Senators prevailed, 5-1, in the deciding game.

What a leader. Cechmanek's first three seasons are all he has that are notable in a historical sense... Roenick is shockingly close to being in the same territory for a hall of fame guy.

 

[Michael Farkas]

One question: Logically, how is the gap that big?

Just want to make sure we didn't lose sight of the question/subject. No one has obviously taken a crack at it...it feels like a fairly straightforward question, so something must be up haha

 

[The Panther]

I'm notn sure the forum needs thread-topics with hidden narratives as comments on other threads.

 

[MadLuke]

Datsyuk was quite steady technically throughout his career. The stat sheet is different because of opportunity and circumstance.

Could misremembering and cannot find it, but I think Brett Hull called him the best or smartest center he ever played with during that 2002 season-playoff run, which considering who was on the team or who Hull played with before was really high praise.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I'm notn sure the forum needs thread-topics with hidden narratives as comments on other threads.

There's no hidden narrative. This is an absolutely critical piece of evidence to submit towards the goalie project. It won't have exactly the weight that it should, but if it nudges that project even one degree in a better, more accurate direction then it was worth it. If this was some sort of inflammatory or "revenge" thread it would have been locked a while ago. This is a piece of critical thought that I want to use as an exhibit for a major project - a project that I think was below our standard last time.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Could misremembering and cannot find it, but I think Brett Hull called him the best or smartest center he ever played with during that 2002 season-playoff run, which considering who was on the team or who Hull played with before was really high praise.

Exactly. Hockey sense is the thing that changes the least in your pro career.

And like I said, the whole "he wasn't Datsyuk till he was..."

Negative.

The league's rules changed and guys like Yzerman got out of the way allowing him 8 more minutes a game without being broken in half by a Derian Hatcher type.

Hell, that famous move on Marty Turco that was basically our And1 mixtape...that was 2003.

Essentially the same player within reason.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I'm notn sure the forum needs thread-topics with hidden narratives as comments on other threads.

This thread is fine.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

There's no hidden narrative. This is an absolutely critical piece of evidence to submit towards the goalie project. It won't have exactly the weight that it should, but if it nudges that project even one degree in a better, more accurate direction then it was worth it. If this was some sort of inflammatory or "revenge" thread it would have been locked a while ago. This is a piece of critical thought that I want to use as an exhibit for a major project - a project that I think was below our standard last time.

Right, it wasn't the way you see things, so it was below "our" standards.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Right, it wasn't the way you see things, so it was below "our" standards.

You have Bobby Orr as the best player of all time, right? Why?

He only played 600 some games. Sure, he won a bunch of Norrises, but against who? Bill White? He's only 3x time MVP and even one of those almost went to a teammate. Lidstrom won 7 Norrises against way tougher competition. A number of players - including contemporary Bobby Clarke - has 3 or more MVPs. I can't imagine he's even top 10 in points among d-men all time. Just two Cups, one against an expansion team.

By accolades alone, he has no case for #1. But I bet you could sum up your case for Bobby Orr being #1 in a single sentence, couldn't you?

 

[jigglysquishy]

All I'm hearing is that Mrs Farkas needs to wait while big Mike edits youtube videos together for us.

 

[Michael Farkas]

All I'm hearing is that Mrs Farkas needs to wait while big Mike edits youtube videos together for us.

I have sent her away to a Broadway show tonight thank you very much

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

You have Bobby Orr as the best player of all time, right? Why?

He only played 600 some games. Sure, he won a bunch of Norrises, but against who? Bill White? He's only 3x time MVP and even one of those almost went to a teammate. Lidstrom won 7 Norrises against way tougher competition. A number of players - including contemporary Bobby Clarke - has 3 or more MVPs. I can't imagine he's even top 10 in points among d-men all time. Just two Cups, one against an expansion team.

By accolades alone, he has no case for #1. But I bet you could sum up your case for Bobby Orr being #1 in a single sentence, couldn't you?

Seems a little out of place in this thread, no?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Seems a little out of place in this thread, no?

I'm a pretty efficient person. If you're going to take a shot, at least humor me and play along with the conversation...

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

I used to like JVB. Until he hated me.

 

[nabby12]

I used to like JVB. Until he hated me.

Is your name Trevor Daley...?