Prospect Info: Riley Heidt, C, 64th Overall, 2023 NHL Draft

[Wabit]

And yet the league is littered with awesome players that put up multiple PPG+ CHL seasons.

And yet there are more washouts with multiple PPG+ CHL seasons than there are great NHL players. The CHL is the best predraft developmental league. It's the worst post draft league for development. It's the equivilent of forcing the USDT players to stay in the USHL until they are 20 instead of them into college.

Beckman and Khovanov come to mind with this.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And yet there are more washouts with multiple PPG+ CHL seasons than there are great NHL players. The CHL is the best predraft developmental league. It's the worst post draft league for development. It's the equivilent of forcing the USDT players to stay in the USHL until they are 20 instead of them into college.

Beckman and Khovanov come to mind with this.

There are good NCAA scorers that don't do anything in the pros too. Obviously there are players on both sides of the coin. But there are enough that there's no "need" for either direction.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Yeah, and Justin Brazeau outscored Nick Suzuki in 2018-19. Didn't turn out to mean too much.

Turns out all that time having the puck on Brazeau’s stick in the OHL didn’t mean much.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

i have no idea if heidt is a home run but i trust in judd (not guerin)

Why? Judd is mediocre at best.

 

[AKL]

Turns out all that time having the puck on Brazeau’s stick in the OHL didn’t mean much.

I'm confused about if you actually like Heidt or not at this point

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I'm confused about if you actually like Heidt or not at this point

I’ll get back to you on that once he plays anywhere but the CHL.

Honestly, the Wild organization should have made a huge fuss about Heidt not being able to leave the CHL. 3 games short, while playing 100% of games that season, is stupid. Sometimes you have to be the squeaky wheel to get what you want.

 

[AKL]

Honestly, the Wild organization should have made a huge fuss about Heidt not being able to leave the CHL. 3 games short, while playing 100% of games that season, is stupid. Sometimes you have to be the squeaky wheel to get what you want.

100% agree

 

[Wabit]

There are good NCAA scorers that don't do anything in the pros too. Obviously there are players on both sides of the coin. But there are enough that there's no "need" for either direction.

The kid was pushing 2ppg the prior season in the CHL. There was nothing left in the league for him to learn. It's like passing Math 101 with an A+, and being then told you have to take it again the next year because we told you to.

The CHL is a trash league for post draft age players to develop. It's just high end high-school hockey mentally and physically. The only positive it has over college for pro development is the number of games played each season.

 

[Wabit]

I’ll get back to you on that once he plays anywhere but the CHL.

Honestly, the Wild organization should have made a huge fuss about Heidt not being able to leave the CHL. 3 games short, while playing 100% of games that season, is stupid. Sometimes you have to be the squeaky wheel to get what you want.

This is where I usually end up with CHL players, especially d-men. I really think the whole d-men take longer to develop is due to being stuck the CHL.

Heidt was a good 3rd round pick. If he turns into something at the NHL it's a big win, if he's a good AHLer that's a win too. I have low expectations for a 3rd round pick.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Turns out all that time having the puck on Brazeau’s stick in the OHL didn’t mean much.

Yeah, it's crazy, that's the one league that isn't batting 1.000 at sending players to the NHL.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is where I usually end up with CHL players, especially d-men. I really think the whole d-men take longer to develop is due to being stuck the CHL.

Heidt was a good 3rd round pick. If he turns into something at the NHL it's a big win, if he's a good AHLer that's a win too. I have low expectations for a 3rd round pick.

Technically a 2nd round pick.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The kid was pushing 2ppg the prior season in the CHL. There was nothing left in the league for him to learn. It's like passing Math 101 with an A+, and being then told you have to take it again the next year because we told you to.

The CHL is a trash league for post draft age players to develop. It's just high end high-school hockey mentally and physically. The only positive it has over college for pro development is the number of games played each season.

Again, that's something that you can very easily say, but there's not much backing it up.

 

[AKL]

Again, that's something that you can very easily say, but there's not much backing it up.

I think the "problem" is that, players that go on to become good NHL players are largely going to do so regardless of where they play at age 19/20. So people are free to draw conclusions both ways. If you want to believe the CHL is horrible for people at 19/20, there are plenty of examples of good 18/19 year olds in the CHL who didn't become anything in the NHL. If you want to believe the CHL is great for people at 19/20, there are plenty of examples of both good and bad 18/19 year olds in the CHL who became good players in the NHL. Either way you can point to examples and say "see, I'm right".

I don't think staying in the CHL this season is going to derail Heidt's career. He's either going to make it or not make it independently of that. But I also don't believe staying in the CHL this year did him any favors. It's basically a throwaway year. He'll still be what he's going to be based on his work ethic and ability from here on out, it's just going to take a year longer to get there than it would have if he was able to move on to the AHL this year.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think the "problem" is that, players that go on to become good NHL players are largely going to do so regardless of where they play at age 19/20. So people are free to draw conclusions both ways. If you want to believe the CHL is horrible for people at 19/20, there are plenty of examples of good 18/19 year olds in the CHL who didn't become anything in the NHL. If you want to believe the CHL is great for people at 19/20, there are plenty of examples of both good and bad 18/19 year olds in the CHL who became good players in the NHL. Either way you can point to examples and say "see, I'm right".

I don't think staying in the CHL this season is going to derail Heidt's career. He's either going to make it or not make it independently of that. But I also don't believe staying in the CHL this year did him any favors. It's basically a throwaway year. He'll still be what he's going to be based on his work ethic and ability from here on out, it's just going to take a year longer to get there than it would have if he was able to move on to the AHL this year.

I think it just offers different things than other places.

Maybe I just need to change my mindset now that CHL players can hop to the NCAA, but the idea that 50+ CHL players should've been going to Europe every season doesn't make much sense to me.

And I do agree that players are going to generally be what they're going to be. Better to play above water than below it, though.

 

[AKL]

I think it just offers different things than other places.

Maybe I just need to change my mindset now that CHL players can hop to the NCAA, but the idea that 50+ CHL players should've been going to Europe every season doesn't make much sense to me.

And I do agree that players are going to generally be what they're going to be. Better to play above water than below it, though.

I mean I think there's a reason the CHL negotiated the way it is now in the first place, they knew that their high end players in that 19/20 year old season would most likely be moving up to better leagues. Why? Because a lot of them are ready to. It's how they retain the talent they otherwise wouldn't retain. It's not 50+ players. It's probably closer to 10 per league.

But as far as the water analogy goes, yeah, you don't want guys to be drowning by moving up a league. You also don't want guys to be floating on a tube drinking pina coladas for an entire season. That's why you want players/NHL orgs to have the choice. Right now it's NHL or bust. There should be an option to put players in the AHL as well.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I mean I think there's a reason the CHL negotiated the way it is now in the first place, they knew that their high end players in that 19/20 year old season would most likely be moving up to better leagues. Why? Because a lot of them are ready to. It's how they retain the talent they otherwise wouldn't retain. It's not 50+ players. It's probably closer to 10 per league.

But as far as the water analogy goes, yeah, you don't want guys to be drowning by moving up a league. You also don't want guys to be floating on a tube drinking pina coladas for an entire season. That's why you want players/NHL orgs to have the choice. Right now it's NHL or bust. There should be an option to put players in the AHL as well.

The quote that I'm responding to is that once you hit PPG in the CHL, you've produced your way out of it. That's a lot more than 10 players per league.

I definitely think there should be a way get certain players to the AHL, X number of exceptions per X number of years or something. I don't think it's the expectation that once you hit PPG you should be looking for ways to get to Europe though.

If they want to make their way to the U, that's fine with me. Europe is too far.

 

[AKL]

The quote that I'm responding to is that once you hit PPG in the CHL, you've produced your way out of it. That's a lot more than 10 players per league.

I definitely think there should be a way get certain players to the AHL, X number of exceptions per X number of years or something. I don't think it's the expectation that once you hit PPG you should be looking for ways to get to Europe though.

If they want to make their way to the U, that's fine with me. Europe is too far.

I don't agree to that extreme obviously, but at a certain point, I do think you can safely say guys have outgrown the league. It's not point per game though.

I don't think Europe is the answer for NA players like Heidt in the same way I don't think the AHL is the answer for KHL players like Yurov. But also for what it's worth, KHL players have no upward mobility in their situation because they've basically reached the top. CHL players like Heidt have no upward mobility for a year because they're being artificially held down by an agreement with the sole purpose of generating money for the CHL.

Heidt doesn't have options in NA besides the NCAA, and honestly I don't think that's the answer either, even though it could be an alternative. There's more than goes into playing for an NCAA team besides just "okay I think I'm going to go play for Boston College now". And I don't know that it's necessarily always a step up anyway.

But hey, we agree that there should be a way for a guy like Heidt to leave the CHL early and play in a league that makes sense for him and is a logical progression, so we're fundamentally on the same page.

 

[Wabit]

I don't agree to that extreme obviously, but at a certain point, I do think you can safely say guys have outgrown the league. It's not point per game though.

I don't think Europe is the answer for NA players like Heidt in the same way I don't think the AHL is the answer for KHL players like Yurov. But also for what it's worth, KHL players have no upward mobility in their situation because they've basically reached the top. CHL players like Heidt have no upward mobility for a year because they're being artificially held down by an agreement with the sole purpose of generating money for the CHL.

Heidt doesn't have options in NA besides the NCAA, and honestly I don't think that's the answer either, even though it could be an alternative. There's more than goes into playing for an NCAA team besides just "okay I think I'm going to go play for Boston College now". And I don't know that it's necessarily always a step up anyway.

But hey, we agree that there should be a way for a guy like Heidt to leave the CHL early and play in a league that makes sense for him and is a logical progression, so we're fundamentally on the same page.

The thing with the KHL players is they are "usually" in the MHL until their draft age, and then step up into the KHL as a step up from their U-20 league. I don't think they have an equivilent of the USDT/USHL for the "too good" highschool age kids.

I'll stick with the ~PPG rate for post draft age CHL players (I'll caveat this with saying I mean FWDs). It shows they have the skill set (tools) to move on to a higher level of hockey. It's not just the level of players it's the level of coaching and team stratigies (toolbox).

 

[AKL]

I'll stick with the ~PPG rate for post draft age CHL players (I'll caveat this with saying I mean FWDs). It shows they have the skill set (tools) to move on to a higher level of hockey. It's not just the level of players it's the level of coaching and team stratigies (toolbox).

Yeah sorry I'm just not gonna agree with you here. PPG is an incredibly low bar in the CHL and it seems arbitrary anyway. Like @Dr Jan Itor alluded to, there were 49 forwards in the WHL this year that scored at a point per game, and if you include guys who went at like 0.97 (because where do you draw the line?), it's even more.

Next consider that the only upward move for these guys is the AHL or NHL. Europe isn't a legitimate answer or option. The NCAA is mostly lateral, especially if you have 150+ CHL players transferring to the NCAA every year.

You definitely can't claim that the CHL is a terrible league post draft, and then also say that 150 players every year should be moving on to professional leagues. You can't believe both of those things.

 

[57special]

Goals are comparable while assists are down, after losing 2 major offensive players from last year. Still leading the team in production and top 12 in the league in scoring. No cause for major alarm bells.

Amazing that he developed all of those things, yet regressed in production. Maybe if he keeps developing he can get to under a point per game in the CHL!

Last year they were a 1st place team, this year a 4th place one. Still decent, but some key players left. That is going to affect production. Development ... who knows? Some guys peak at 18 yo, some at 25. Heidt might come into camp next year and win a spot in the NHL, or he might never play in the NHL. The guy has some skill, and physical talent. If he is prepared to work really hard, and stays healthy, then I think he'll be an NHL'er, eventually.

 

[Wabit]

Yeah sorry I'm just not gonna agree with you here. PPG is an incredibly low bar in the CHL and it seems arbitrary anyway. Like @Dr Jan Itor alluded to, there were 49 forwards in the WHL this year that scored at a point per game, and if you include guys who went at like 0.97 (because where do you draw the line?), it's even more.

Next consider that the only upward move for these guys is the AHL or NHL. Europe isn't a legitimate answer or option. The NCAA is mostly lateral, especially if you have 150+ CHL players transferring to the NCAA every year.

You definitely can't claim that the CHL is a terrible league post draft, and then also say that 150 players every year should be moving on to professional leagues. You can't believe both of those things.

College is a big step up from the CHL in quality of compitition. Really, I see no difference in numbers when you figure every 20 yo that ages out of the CHL will now be able apply to go to a US college. On the flip side of this every US high school player has a new option other than the USHL to continue playing and keep their college eligibility.

What will be interesting is how the NHL will handle this new option/loophole for CHL players and their draft rights. CHL draft rights expire 3 years after they are drafted (so a year after they age out of the CHL).

I'll use Ritchie (Wild's most recent CHL draft pick) for this example. His draft rights expire on Jun 1, 2026, but he'll age out of the CHL before the 25-26 season. So currently the only option he has is sign with MN, sign overseas (unlikely due to indvidual league transer rules), or sit out a year of hockey and become a FA (that nobody will want to sign after being out of hockey for a season) if he doesn't want to play for the Wild Now (if the draft rights rule isn't changed) he can choose to go to college for a season then become a FA instead spending a year in the AHL Wild.

 

[AKL]

College is a big step up from the CHL in quality of compitition.

It's not. Especially not if you believe that 150 players from the CHL should be playing in the NCAA every year. Can't believe that it's a big step up and also believe that that many players can easily make the switch.

 

[Wabit]

It's not. Especially not if you believe that 150 players from the CHL should be playing in the NCAA every year. Can't believe that it's a big step up and also believe that that many players can easily make the switch.

I never said easily, but realistically it would be more like 75-100 players per year into the college prospect pool. so maybe 2 players per D1 program?

Of those maybe 20-30 (FWDs) would be entering their D+1 season (going off of the draft eligible filter on the CHL sites).

I'll guess 50 (seem fair?) more would be in their D+1 season reaching that mark? 19yo (normal US college Freshman age kids) athletes playing against High School Sophomore-Seniors age athletes is a bit of a mismatch imo, and they really do need to move on to face more mature competition after that.

The rest would be the guys that are aging out of the CHL and doing whatever it is they are going to do after that anyways.

 

[north21]

It's not. Especially not if you believe that 150 players from the CHL should be playing in the NCAA every year. Can't believe that it's a big step up and also believe that that many players can easily make the switch.

I think it's a step up, maybe not a big step up. We might even see some scrimmages now that those old rules are gone.

 

[57special]

You'd think the goal scoring would increase given his apparent development in speed, strength and skill.

Well, at least his fall off in production is slight...unlike Yurov's.

College is a step up from the CHL, but not a big one. The big step is going from Junior to the Pros. People around here consistently underrate how good the CHL is, which is silly, as it is a proven training ground for NHL'ers.