Prospect Info: RESEARCH: Odds of a goalie draftee making the NHL

[Beacon]

I decided to take a look at the statistical odds of a goalie drafted in the 3 round or later making it in the NHL. We are not in a position right now to draft a goalie in the first two rounds because Lundqvist has another half a dozen to a dozen years left, and we have much bigger holes to plug. Obviously someone drafted in the 3rd round has a better chance of making the NHL than someone drafted in the 7th, but the difference is surprisingly small.

I looked for the latest 10 years, but the last 5 drafts are too early to judge, so I looked from 1998 to 2007, which gave us 217 draftees.

I found that it is most likely completely not worth it to draft goalies. While goalies drafted in the mid to late rounds are more likely to crack the NHL, a large majority (14 out of 19) became either backups or borderline starters, both of which are a dime a dozen every summer as UFAs for very little money.

Goalies have to be stars to be valuable. Skaters do not. Hagelin is very valuable to the Rangers as a third liner, but a similarly talented goalie would be a waste.

We are better off signing guys like Talbot and Miss in hopes that they will be good backups some day, and long-term it's easier to just trade for a goalie like Luongo or else we'll have to draft one in the earlier rounds.

We would have to spend every one of our picks in rounds 3 through 7 for seven years just to have a 50-50 chance of drafting a star goalie. Drafting netminders is like throwing darts blind-folded.

So onto the results.

ODDS

Star: 1.38%
Solid Starter or Star: 2.30%
NHLer of any kind: 8.76%



1998: 17 drafted. None became quality starters. Jason Labarbera, Andrew Raycroft and Antero Niittymaki became backups.

1999: 23 drafted. Ryan Miller and Craig Anderson became starters. None became quality backups (I'm not counting those who had a few stints, but never stuck in the NHL).

2000: 27 drafted. Roman Cechmanek was a starter for a few years, then left for Europe. Mikael Tellqvist became a backup. I heard that Lundqvist guy is ok too.

2001: 24 drafted. Cristobal Huet became a part-time starter. Martin Gerber, Ray Emery, Jussi Markkanen, Mike Smith became backups; Pasi Nurminen was a starter for a couple of seasons before being forced to retire due to injury during the last lockout; Craig Anderson was re-drafted in the third round.

2002: 24 drafted. Nobody became a long-term NHLer.

2003: 25 drafted. Two players made it and both are now on the Blues: Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott.

2004: 26 drafted. Nobody became a long-term NHLer.

2005: 16 drafted. Jonathan Quick became a star, but he was the only one.

2006: 20 drafted. Steve Mason is a starter, James Reimer is a backup.

2007: 16 drafted. Nobody became a long-term NHLer.


TOTAL DRAFTED: 217
TOTAL NHLers: 19 (8.76%)


BREAKDOWN

Stars: 3 (Lundqvist, Miller and Quick)
Starters: 2 (Anderson and Mason)
Borderline: 5 (Chechmanek, Huet, Halak, Elliot, Nurminen)
Backups: 9 (Jason Labarbera, Andrew Raycroft, Antero Niittymaki, Mikael Tellqvist, Martin Gerber, Ray Emery, Jussi Markkanen, Mike Smith, James Reimer)

Click to read more...

 

[Kershaw]

Don't draft goalies imo.

Sign college guys as free agents and hope one of them turn out.

 

[The Gloaming]

Interesting...Goalies are definitely the hardest to scout and project.

unless a goalie really stands out from his draft class, like Carey Price or Tuuka Rask, I not even think its worth it to take them in the top 15.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

half a dozen to a dozen? So you think he might retire at 42?

 

[Beacon]

half a dozen to a dozen? So you think he might retire at 42?

Brodeur is 40 years old and he just signed a 2 year contract. Unless he's injured, he'll probably keep playing until then. I see no reason why Lundqvist can't do the same. He's 10 years younger, and medicine/fitness/equipment is getting progressively better with time. If he stays healthy, he can go to 42, why not? He's a superstar and superstars always last longer (barring catastrophic injury) because they have more room to regress while still being very effective.

Let's not forget that he's a goalie. They last longer because they don't get nailed into the boards for a quarter of a century from the age of 10 to 35.

 

[3rdlineglory]

Thanks for the research. This basically disproves the whole "picking goalies late in the draft is effective" myth. If the organization really needs a goalie, the GM should draft him early. So what if a goalie drafted in the later rounds a few years ago turned into a good player? Multiple examples of late draft success stories are there for every position.

To be fair, you forgot Rinne .

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Brodeur is 40 years old and he just signed a 2 year contract. Unless he's injured, he'll probably keep playing until then. I see no reason why Lundqvist can't do the same. He's 10 years younger, and medicine/fitness/equipment is getting progressively better with time. If he stays healthy, he can go to 42, why not? He's a superstar and superstars always last longer (barring catastrophic injury) because they have more room to regress while still being very effective.

Let's not forget that he's a goalie. They last longer because they don't get nailed into the boards for a quarter of a century from the age of 10 to 35.

I may be wrong here but I remember reading that butterfly goalies put a lot of strain on their legs/knees and thus can't last as long as other style goalies. May explain Brodeur's longevity. May also explain Hasek's.

 

[JimmyG89]

Mike Smith is not a backup. Did people forget about the end of last season and the playoffs? IDC if it was for one season, he is a starting goalie in the NHL.

Halak and Elliot are not borderline. Halak is a starting goalie in the NHL. Elliot to me can be, but he needs to show me more and play more games in a season. They are no suspect. They are at least backup, in Elliot, and a starter in Halak.

2004: Pekka Rinne. He's pretty good I think.
2003: Jimmy Howard. Solid starter
2008: Braden Holtby. Emerging starter. At least a backup, but his playoffs last season say he can be something special.

Those are the one's that I came off of the top of my head with. List needs to be updated. Rinne is a star and Howard added to starting goalie list.

A lot of undrafted tenders as well. I say, scout who you like and take them where you please. If you think a later round goalie could be there and take him in the 4th or 5th round that has starter potential, do it. BPA is the way to draft, and if it is a goalie, you should take the goalie.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

There are many rounds with many picks. Many unique players in many unique situations in each of their unique development paths. There is no way to put a statistical formula on drafting and player development. If there were, there would be no draft or scouting. It would be a free market and GMs would hire a statistical analyst to determine which free agent to sign.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0470681500

 

[rmcg11]

for those saying to sign undrafted goaltenders

Current NHL Goalies by round

First Round: Martin Brodeur, Rick DiPietro, Martin Biron, Marc Andre Fleury, Tukka Rask, Carey Price, Leland Irving,Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Semyon Varlamov, Devan Dubnyk, Roberto Luongo, Cory Schneider, Cam Ward, Brian Boucher, Riku Helenius, Al Montoya, Kari Lehtonen, Jonathan Bernier (18)


Second Round: Ilya Bryzgalov, Corey Crawford, Jimmy Howard, Jhonas Enroth, Josh Harding, Jose Theodore, Justin Peters, Mathieu Garon, Michal Neuvirth, Ondrej Pavelec, Jeff Deslauriers (11)

Third Round: Steve Mason, Peter Budaj, Craig Anderson, Ben Bishopp, Jonathan Quick, Jason LaBarbera, Thomas Greiss (7)

Fourth Round: Ray Emery, James Reimer, Braden Holtby, Richard Bachman (4)

Fifth Round: Chris Mason, Ryan Miller, Miikka Kiprusoff, Mike Smith (4)

Sixth Round: Michael Leighton (1)

Seventh Round: Henrik Lundqvist, Anton Khudobin, Anders Lindback (3)

Eighth Round: Pekka Rinne, Scott Clemmensen (2)

Ninth Round: Johan Hedberg, Evgeni Nabakov, Tomas Voukon, Brian Elliot, Jaroslav Halak, Nikolai Khabibulin (6)
Undrafted: Sergei Bobrovsky, Jonas Gustavsson, Joey MacDonald, Ben Scrivens, Henrik Karlsson, Niklas Backstrom, Jonas Hiller, Viktor Fasth, Antti Niemi (9)


64 players are listed due to some unclear goaltending situations

so 3 possibly 4 starting goalies are undrafted while all 6 goaltenders drafted in the 9th round were starters at some point in their career

so 14 percent of goaltenders are undrafted really think its not merited to use draft picks on goalies

 

[vstk]

I decided to take a look at the statistical odds of a goalie drafted in the 3 round or later making it in the NHL.

I think you forgot few names and probably underestimated few as well. Some names have been already mentioned in this thread.

1999:
Alex Auld, Sebastein Caron, Michael Leighton.

While Sebastien Caron might be stated borderline in this research, he still has made the most beautiful save in NHL in my opinion. Auld has a solid 223 games in NHL and Leighton has 104 games with very good play-off run with Philadelphia couple of years ago.

2000:
Rick DiPietro, Ilya Bryzgalov

Everybody knows these two guys

2001:
Pascal LeClaire, Dan Blacburn, Christobal Huet

Dan Blackburn might have been a solid backup goalie (or even a starter as far as I know), unfortunately he got injured very early in his career and had to retire early. Pascal LeClaire with 4 good years in CBJ and 173 NHL games under his belt. Christobal Huet had 272 games and a godddamn Stanley Cup.

2002:
Kari Lehtonen, Fredrik Norrena

Lehtonen has 344 games, was a starter in Trashers and is a starter in Dallas at the moment. Fredrik Norrena might be borderline, served as a backup for LeClaire while he was in CBJ and then went to play in Russia. Has played 100 NHL games.

2003:
Marc-Andre Fleury, Corey Crawford

Fleury is a first round top pick and has a Stanley Cup. Solid starter. Corey Crawford has been a starting goalie for Blackhawks for the last two years.

2004:
Corey Schneider, Pekka Rinne

Schneider is a solid backup for Luongo and some went even as far as to suggest hes better than Luongo and would be a starter without Luongo's ridiculous contract. Rinne is one of the best goalies in the NHL at the moment.

2005:
Carey Price, Tuukka Rask, Ondrej Pavelec

all of them are starting goalies this season.

2006:
Semyon Varlamov, Michael Neuvirth

Varlamov was a solid backup on Washington, starter in Colorado. Neuvirth might be a starter in Washington this year, all depends on how good Holtby turns out to be.

2008:
Braden Holtby

Solid backup, might be even be a starter for Washington. Had a solid play-off run last year.

 

[blue425]

Wow. Great info!

 

[Trxjw]

He said that the analysis was done for goalies drafted in the 3rd round or later. A lot of people are listing guys who were 1st and 2nd round picks.

That being said, I'd wager that the percentage of drafting a future NHLer out of those rounds amongst forwards and defensemen isn't all that much higher than a goalie (maybe 4-5% more at best). If that's the case, why bother drafting players in late rounds at all? It also seems foolish to forego drafting goalies in later rounds because of percentages, when in fact the best player in our organization is a goalie who was drafted in a late round.

You spend your draft picks on players who you like and that you think will pan out. It doesn't matter what the odds are over the years or what position they play. Get the best prospects you can out of the draft, and supplement that group with FA signings. Works just fine.

 

[vstk]

He said that the analysis was done for goalies drafted in the 3rd round or later. A lot of people are listing guys who were 1st and 2nd round picks.

Yeah, my bad. I should read the post more carefully.