These predictions are based on a combination of results so far (wins/losses, points percentages, goal differential, shot generation and shot prevention rates), recent history, the eye test (there are certain teams I watch more often than others) and what seems logically likely - with a bit of gut instinct mixed in.
With that out of the way, DM presents you with your Holiday 2024-2025 Remaining Season Forecast...
The Tampa Bay Lightning will finish first in their division. The Bolts are back. Boasting a dominant goal differential that belies their record, this team is good all around and has a roster replete with veterans who know how to win. The Lightning will capitalize on the Panthers' fatigue from two lengthy playoff runs in a row and will finish atop the Atlantic division. Kucherov will have another high scoring season, and if anyone challenges McDavid for the Art Ross, it'll be him and MacKinnon (again).
The Panthers will finish second in the Atlantic. Still a good possession team and a team that knows how to win, the Panthers will beat out the reviled Toronto Maple Leafs for home ice advantage in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Maple Leafs will once again take the third spot in their division. It hasn't been an entirely smooth and successful transition to Berube hockey for the Maple Leafs, but the team is talented and has a track record of being good in the regular season. The Leafs are harder to score on, but goaltending has played a significant role in that and now Stolarz is out with an injury. Matthews has had a rough season and the team certainly misses his prolific goal scoring, although a resurgent John Tavares has picked up some of the slack. It's really all about the playoffs for this team anyway, and we'll see if these so-called new-look Maple Leafs can overcome the defending Stanley Cup Champions in round one of the playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators will return to the playoffs and grab the first WC spot in the East. Not a Sens fan, but this team is quite good and has arrived as a legitimate playoff team, The roster has considerable talent and the team holds its own well in terms of shots for and against. The goaltending has been better as of late. Ottawa is distinguishing and separating itself from teams like BUF, DET and MTL. The Sens may be a tough out in round one as well (similar to the Maple Leafs in their first playoff appearance with their current core).
The Boston Bruins will extend their playoff streak, taking the WC2 spot in the East. The team isn't what it was but has been notably better since the coaching change and isn't ready to surrender a playoff spot.
The other reams in the Atlantic will once again miss the playoffs. The Red Wings and Sabres appear to have taken steps back, and the Montreal Canadiens will finish ahead of both teams this season. The Sabres are a better team than the Red Wings in terms of controlling play, but the damage is done as far as that team's season is concerned and BUF will finish eighth in the Atlantic.
The Capitals are, in fact, for real. This is a good team that can score and defend and will edge out the New Jersey Devils for first in the Metropolitan Division. Ovechkin's return will give an offensive and emotional boost to a team has been having a harder time scoring goals lately, and it'll be interesting to see how far he will come to Gretzky's record in a bounce-back season for him and his team.
The Devils will take the second spot in the Metro. The Devils have a new coach and are healthier compared to last season. Their defense and goaltending are better and Jack Hughes will continue his ascension.
The Carolina Hurricanes will be the only other team to qualify for the playoffs in the Metro. The Hurricanes are still an elite possession team and quite deep and talented. They'll once again go up against the Devils in the Stanley Cup playoffs (rematch from 2023).
The regressing Rangers and increasingly irrelevant Penguins will battle it out for that not-so-coveted ninth spot in the East. The Rangers will eventually get back on track and finish fourth in their division, but it won't be enough to get them in the playoffs. The Pens will finish fifth in the Metro.
The Blue Jackets, Flyers and Islanders will finish sixth, seventh and eighth in the Metro, respectively.
The Jets will finish atop the Central. After soaring to a tremendous start and putting together a good record as of late, the Jets have built up too much distance between themselves and teams like Colorado and Dallas to be caught by such teams. Though not a particularly dominant team by shot metrics, you can't argue with WPG's League-leading +44 goal differential. The Jets will regress to an extent but will still finish first in their division.
The Avalanche will take the second spot in the Central. Nathan MacKinnon is having another outstanding season and will power the Avalanche to an improved record the rest of the way. Shot metrics also suggest the Avalanche are better than their record.
The Dallas Stars will take the third spot in the Central. Another team that's probably better than its record, Dallas will pass Minnesota and will play COL in round one of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Minnesota Wild have begun to fall off and that drop will continue, although they will qualify for the post season thanks in large part to Kaprizov, who will remain in the Hart conversation.
Utah will take fifth in the division and will battle for a playoff spot but will ultimately fall short of a post season berth. The Predators will again make a push for a playoff spot, but this year they'll fall short, finishing sixth in the Central. The Blues will be seventh in the division and Connor Bedard's Blackhawks will finish eighth.
The Edmonton Oilers will have a better record than the Golden Knights over the remainder of the season and will edge out Vegas for first in the Pacific Division. It won't be a run-away win, but Connor McDavid will overcome an eight point gap and beat out MacKinnon (and Kucherov, who will be in the race) for his sixth Art Ross Trophy, strengthening his case for being the fifth-greatest player in NHL history.
The Golden Knights will finish second in the Pacific and face the Canucks, who will take the third spot in the division, in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Canucks will narrowly finish ahead of the Kings, who are a solid team and will once again qualify for the playoffs
The Flames will take the fifth spot in the Pacific and miss out on a post season berth and the Kraken, Ducks and Sharks will swim at the bottom of the Pacific, finishing sixth, seventh and eighth in the division, respectively.
Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XV (Light em up!)
