Reformatted OHL Draft Pick Database
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Thank you for such an amazing and comprehensive document. Couple of questions:
1) Miss. Rd. 1, selection 8. I presume this has something to do with Kirill Nizhnikov going to Barrie. Whether it does or not, how did the pick get slotted in at #8?
2) In the 2nd round, there is a pick listed as Pass. What does this refer to and is it part of the same transaction?
Thanks for you help.
1) Miss. Rd. 1, selection 8. I presume this has something to do with Kirill Nizhnikov going to Barrie. Whether it does or not, how did the pick get slotted in at #8?
2) In the 2nd round, there is a pick listed as Pass. What does this refer to and is it part of the same transaction?
Thanks for you help.
For your first question i know that because Nizhnikov didnt report to Mississauga, they get a compensation pick one pick after what the original was
My pleasure. I'm glad you've found it helpful!
I'm not completely versed on all of the intricacies of the unsigned first-rounder compensation system, but as I understand it (and as coolwood said), if a team fails to sign their first-round pick and trades that player's rights to another team before the season begins, they receive a compensation pick in the next draft one pick lower than the spot they picked at in the previous year. If the pick was in the top 5, they also receive a second compensation pick at the end of the second round. (This happened to Flint two years ago after they picked and traded away Ryan McLeod.) Mississauga picked Nizhnikov seventh last year, so they get this year's eighth pick as compensation.
For your second question, it's related to the sanctions the league imposed against Windsor a few years ago. As part of the sanctions, Windsor is forced to give up a second-round pick in 2017. I believe they can give up any second-round pick they choose--currently they hold their own, but I would expect Rychel to try to trade down as far as possible (currently Sarnia holds that last pick) in order to squeeze as much value as he can out of a pick that he can't use anyway. Draft picks (but not players) can be traded again in the week before the draft.
Both great questions, and I added notes to the database to help clear these points up for others. Hope that helps!
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The Priority Selection order has been published by the OHL (just select "2017" from the drop-down menu). I found twelve inconsistencies between the OHL's list and the database. Two are definitely errors on the OHL's side (they have London's and OS's 12th rounders swapped); the other ten appear to be misses by the database. This is a little more than I was hoping for, but it's still a very solid record: 291/301 picks is a 96.7% accuracy rate. If you consider only picks that changed hands, we got around 90%. (I counted 97 such picks, but that doesn't count picks that were traded by and later returned to their original teams.) I noted the errors in the database for now, and will correct it properly when I have more time.
The misses:
FNT 2nd --> Barrie (database said Flint)
FNT 3rd --> Niagara (database said Flint)
HAM 3rd --> Hamilton (database said Mississauga)
WSR 3rd --> Barrie (database said London)
SBY 4th --> Flint (database said Sudbury)
LDN 4th --> Kitchener (database said London)
ER 4th --> Sudbury (database said Erie)
OTT 15th --> Sault Ste. Marie (database said Ottawa)
PBO 15th --> Niagara (database said Peterborough)
WSR 15th --> Windsor (database said Niagara)
The WSR 3rd was the one conditional we weren't able to get conclusive information on. A few of the other picks were wrong guesses based on incomplete information; the rest I have no idea about. Still a pretty good performance, as I said--three of the picks were in the 15th round, and so not particularly important, and we got the 5th through 14th rounds perfect. Thanks to everyone who's contributed, and we'll see how we do again next year!
The misses:
FNT 2nd --> Barrie (database said Flint)
FNT 3rd --> Niagara (database said Flint)
HAM 3rd --> Hamilton (database said Mississauga)
WSR 3rd --> Barrie (database said London)
SBY 4th --> Flint (database said Sudbury)
LDN 4th --> Kitchener (database said London)
ER 4th --> Sudbury (database said Erie)
OTT 15th --> Sault Ste. Marie (database said Ottawa)
PBO 15th --> Niagara (database said Peterborough)
WSR 15th --> Windsor (database said Niagara)
The WSR 3rd was the one conditional we weren't able to get conclusive information on. A few of the other picks were wrong guesses based on incomplete information; the rest I have no idea about. Still a pretty good performance, as I said--three of the picks were in the 15th round, and so not particularly important, and we got the 5th through 14th rounds perfect. Thanks to everyone who's contributed, and we'll see how we do again next year!
ohloutsider
Registered User
When can teams trade draft picks - has to be at least a week before the draft? This week coming?
Good question. Last year the draft was Apr. 9th and there were picks traded on the 6th, 7th, and 8th; previous years have seen picks traded 4-5 days before the draft. I thought the pre-draft pick-only trading period was a full week, but it may be the "week of" the draft, so yes, I'd guess that picks can be traded Apr. 3-7.
Maybe someone else can clear this up?
Maybe someone else can clear this up?
Yes, apologies, Tc. I'm not sure why the database missed on Flint so much. Could be random, could be a particular trade was missed at some point. I'm looking into it! Definitely a blow to the kind of draft capital we thought Flint had, but I still think your team is in decent shape moving forward.
TcNorth
Registered User
- Jan 25, 2015
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Not quite sure what is going on SFC. The OHL page now has Flint's 2nd and 3rd round picks restored. It is now showing Flint with:
1st round. 10th pick
2nd round. 28th pick
2nd round. 30th pick
3rd round 49th pick
4th round 4 picks. (66th, 68th, 74th, and 77th)
Etc.
Not sure what to believe anymore. The OHL Database may need to be updated again friend.
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Thanks for the heads-up, Tc. It looks like the OHL has changed their projection to agree with the database on the following picks:
FNT 2nd --> Flint
FNT 3rd --> Flint
LDN 4th --> London
PBO 15th --> Peterborough
WSR 15th --> Niagara
The following five picks are unchanged:
HAM 3rd --> Hamilton (database said Mississauga)
WSR 3rd --> Barrie (database said London)
SBY 4th --> Flint (database said Sudbury)
ER 4th --> Sudbury (database said Erie)
OTT 15th --> Sault Ste. Marie (database said Ottawa)
What does this mean? Well, when you consider that the OHL also had Owen Sound and London's 13th rounders swapped (since fixed), this means that, in all likelihood, the database was actually more accurate than the OHL's own internal record. Well done to all who helped contribute.
Unfortunately, because I updated the database to agree with the OHL, these new mistakes will have to be corrected. Expect that to happen tomorrow at some point.
The database has been restored and should now be accurate. I'm still counting five inconsistencies (listed above) between the database's predictions and the OHL's draft order. Three are cases where we guessed wrong; the other two I'm not sure about, and could still be inaccuracies on the OHL's end, but I'm inclined to trust them at this point as they fixed so many other inaccuracies.
So the current (final?) tally is either 98.3% accuracy or 95% accuracy, depending on whether you compare the database against total picks or moved picks. Either way, it's a great result. Thanks again to all who helped out!
So the current (final?) tally is either 98.3% accuracy or 95% accuracy, depending on whether you compare the database against total picks or moved picks. Either way, it's a great result. Thanks again to all who helped out!
ohloutsider
Registered User
SFC - really appreciate the work you are doing with this - nice to see some accurate numbers - I'm a little concerned with the numbers/picks for Windsor - sure you got that right - we don.t seem to have any picks
TcNorth
Registered User
- Jan 25, 2015
- 2,562
- 445
SFC - really appreciate the work you are doing with this - nice to see some accurate numbers - I'm a little concerned with the numbers/picks for Windsor - sure you got that right - we don.t seem to have any picks
Agree 100%. So very much appreciated SFC!
SFC - really appreciate the work you are doing with this - nice to see some accurate numbers - I'm a little concerned with the numbers/picks for Windsor - sure you got that right - we don.t seem to have any picks
Good news, outsider--Windsor just added Guelph's 10th rounder this year in our first trade of the pre-draft period!
Apr. 3 GUE GUE 10 2017 WSR WSR 9 2018
So pick trading is definitely open again. I think that, value-wise, this trade favours Windsor slightly--they move a year up and something on the order of twenty picks back, but I think at that level of the draft (picks 160-180) the drop-off in talent isn't great. I'd probably rather have the extra year, but this trade is in line with a couple of trades we saw last year at this time, so this appears to be a consistent baseline for pick valuation. Fun(?) side note: Windsor is down to three picks in the first nine rounds next year.
Good trade for Windsor, and, honestly, not a bad trade for Guelph either considering they have a boatload of picks this year.
ohloutsider
Registered User
Nice to see the additional pick just wish we had something in round 2,3,4. Nothing for us to trade to get there either - need a huge hit at 1.
EON's post in the Erie topic helpfully reminded me to check for further trades this week--all three have been added to the database.
I don't believe teams can trade picks draft day, so today marks the last day picks can move before June.
I don't believe teams can trade picks draft day, so today marks the last day picks can move before June.
Just comparing the database order, with the OHL list clickable from their main homepage (I don't feel this was an option earlier today).
37 according to the OHL is Sarnia's from Windsor - so it is in play?
And Erie's 2nd round is just missing from the OHL list...
...thoughts?
(apologies if this was discussed among the last few pages of thread)
37 according to the OHL is Sarnia's from Windsor - so it is in play?
And Erie's 2nd round is just missing from the OHL list...
...thoughts?
(apologies if this was discussed among the last few pages of thread)
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Wow, thanks! The OHL GMs are obviously trying to make my life more difficult. This might be the most pre-draft trades we've ever seen.
That was part of a transaction I'd been expecting to happen since the deadline. Windsor had to give up a 2nd-round pick, not necessarily their own, so it made sense for Rychel to trade down in the round as far as he could. So Windsor swapped second-round picks with Sarnia, who had that Erie pick, and picked up an extra eighth rounder for helping Sarnia move up a few slots in the second round. I'm surprised it took until the end of the trading period--Sarnia must have been playing hardball.
Anyway, the database will be updated momentarily.
Final Priority Selection draft order is up, the database is updated, and the trade index for the year is finalized. Let me know if there are any further issues.
I did make one correction--Erie's conspicuously un-traded 2019 3rd rounder was, indeed, moved, ahead of the 2014 draft, to Sudbury for a few earlier picks. EON, you'll want to update your Otters list as well. Sudbury still had the pick, to the best of my knowledge.
Enjoy the draft, everyone!
I did make one correction--Erie's conspicuously un-traded 2019 3rd rounder was, indeed, moved, ahead of the 2014 draft, to Sudbury for a few earlier picks. EON, you'll want to update your Otters list as well. Sudbury still had the pick, to the best of my knowledge.
Enjoy the draft, everyone!
Just a short note to say that I added some information to the database on defected first-round draft picks: the rules around the defected player compensation system, a list of all past transactions with those players, and, eventually, a list of any compensation picks that teams will be receiving in the subsequent draft if they make any defected player trades.
This just helps close a blind spot in the database with respect to first-round picks. I really didn't want to add a column to the main database for first-round picks because they can't be traded, but compensation picks are an important special case and can make a big difference in terms of a team's draft capital in a given year, so I wanted to include them somewhere. As far as I can see, there wasn't a list like this out there anywhere, so I thought it might be a useful resource for interest's sake, as well.
On that note, if there's anything else anyone would like to see added to the database, or anything you'd like to see changed, please let me know and I'll see what I can do! I do have old trade data dating back to the mid-90s, but getting it all up on the database would take a while and I have a feeling that information would be of limited interest.
This just helps close a blind spot in the database with respect to first-round picks. I really didn't want to add a column to the main database for first-round picks because they can't be traded, but compensation picks are an important special case and can make a big difference in terms of a team's draft capital in a given year, so I wanted to include them somewhere. As far as I can see, there wasn't a list like this out there anywhere, so I thought it might be a useful resource for interest's sake, as well.
On that note, if there's anything else anyone would like to see added to the database, or anything you'd like to see changed, please let me know and I'll see what I can do! I do have old trade data dating back to the mid-90s, but getting it all up on the database would take a while and I have a feeling that information would be of limited interest.
Quick Database update:
1) Thanks to Peter Kneulman, I was able to add some information on the Noah Carroll trade conditions. As always, if anyone has any information on conditional picks, please pass it along, either in this topic or via PM.
2) It was pointed out to me that the database was a bit opaque about conditionals a team has sent away (vs. received). I added notes to the Picks page to compensate for this. If you mouse over any cell with a black triangle in it, it will indicate that a pick in that year/round has been conditionally sent to a particular team as part of a particular trade. You can then look up any specifics on the condition under the Conditions tab. This should give a more precise idea of each team's cupboard since we know that many conditions don't get met.
3) The trade freeze ends June 1--that's this week! I'll try to check the OHL's website for trades periodically, but if anyone does see something I've missed, feel free to post it here and I'll make sure it gets added. Thanks!
1) Thanks to Peter Kneulman, I was able to add some information on the Noah Carroll trade conditions. As always, if anyone has any information on conditional picks, please pass it along, either in this topic or via PM.
2) It was pointed out to me that the database was a bit opaque about conditionals a team has sent away (vs. received). I added notes to the Picks page to compensate for this. If you mouse over any cell with a black triangle in it, it will indicate that a pick in that year/round has been conditionally sent to a particular team as part of a particular trade. You can then look up any specifics on the condition under the Conditions tab. This should give a more precise idea of each team's cupboard since we know that many conditions don't get met.
3) The trade freeze ends June 1--that's this week! I'll try to check the OHL's website for trades periodically, but if anyone does see something I've missed, feel free to post it here and I'll make sure it gets added. Thanks!
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Open throughout June, closed for July, and then open again from August 1 through the Christmas break/World Junior tournament. It's possible a couple trades trickle in on July 2nd as June 30th is a Sunday this year. (This happened a few years ago.)
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