- Apr 27, 2005
- 34,209
- 31,135
Taking a deeper look at his 5v5 numbers, I think his on ice contributions have been really underrated.
He's coming off another really solid year in terms of 5v5 scoring efficiency. He was 18th in G/60 and 48th in P/60.
Since he entered the league in 2015-16, his 5v5 scoring efficiency has been indicative of a legit top line goal scorer, especially when you factor in how weak his supporting cast has been at times. Despite the lack of talent around him, his 5v5 G/60 since 2015 of 0.84 is comparable to guys like Svechnikov, Kempe, Toffoli, Pavelski, Eberle, and Boeser, all pretty notably good finishings wingers. He's also 89th in P/60 in that span (min 400gp), right between Larkin and Backstrom. Among RWs, he's top 30 in both goals and points per 60.
His underlying numbers suggest his overall game might be getting a bit underrated as well. I was surprised to see how good his relative xGA and xG% numbers have been. In terms of expected goals, he's been a notably positive possession and defensive player in pretty much every season outside his rookie year, and his actual goal differential numbers support that.
His relative corsi is also 2nd among RWs since he entered the league (min 400gp). That was pretty surprising. I don't think that means he necessarily a good defender, but he's pretty good at moving the puck north and using his frame and hands to extend offensive zone time, which is usually the best way to limit goals against.
His Jfresh card is pretty impressive as well.
These numbers combine to suggest that his on ice contributions should make him top ~15-20 RW in the game. Capable 5v5 scorer, elite possession and goal differential numbers, and a big body with great hands and insane release....
It's kind of odd how low his worth seems to be around the league. His on ice impacts and scoring levels suggest he should be highly coveted. I know he has a reputation for being soft, but it doesn't seem to be preventing him from being a valuable 5v5 player.
It makes me think that previous reports of attitude and off ice issues are really hurting his value. Unless the league is still overvaluing physicality (which I don't think is as much of a thing anymore, managers are getting savvier every year).
I do think there are some motivation issues, but I think that also gets exaggerated because he's cursed with being big, smooth skating forward. Those guys always look a lot lazier than they actually are, it's amazing how many skilled big guys like him have been pegged as lazy just because they can't move their feet as quickly.
It will be interesting to see how much he gets in free agency. I think he could be a real high value target for teams on a budget looking for a top 6 finisher. Would love for the devils to be in on him, he could score a lot of goals on Hughes' wing.
I think he'll be metro bound, to one of Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, or Columbus.
He's coming off another really solid year in terms of 5v5 scoring efficiency. He was 18th in G/60 and 48th in P/60.
Since he entered the league in 2015-16, his 5v5 scoring efficiency has been indicative of a legit top line goal scorer, especially when you factor in how weak his supporting cast has been at times. Despite the lack of talent around him, his 5v5 G/60 since 2015 of 0.84 is comparable to guys like Svechnikov, Kempe, Toffoli, Pavelski, Eberle, and Boeser, all pretty notably good finishings wingers. He's also 89th in P/60 in that span (min 400gp), right between Larkin and Backstrom. Among RWs, he's top 30 in both goals and points per 60.
His underlying numbers suggest his overall game might be getting a bit underrated as well. I was surprised to see how good his relative xGA and xG% numbers have been. In terms of expected goals, he's been a notably positive possession and defensive player in pretty much every season outside his rookie year, and his actual goal differential numbers support that.
His relative corsi is also 2nd among RWs since he entered the league (min 400gp). That was pretty surprising. I don't think that means he necessarily a good defender, but he's pretty good at moving the puck north and using his frame and hands to extend offensive zone time, which is usually the best way to limit goals against.
His Jfresh card is pretty impressive as well.
These numbers combine to suggest that his on ice contributions should make him top ~15-20 RW in the game. Capable 5v5 scorer, elite possession and goal differential numbers, and a big body with great hands and insane release....
It's kind of odd how low his worth seems to be around the league. His on ice impacts and scoring levels suggest he should be highly coveted. I know he has a reputation for being soft, but it doesn't seem to be preventing him from being a valuable 5v5 player.
It makes me think that previous reports of attitude and off ice issues are really hurting his value. Unless the league is still overvaluing physicality (which I don't think is as much of a thing anymore, managers are getting savvier every year).
I do think there are some motivation issues, but I think that also gets exaggerated because he's cursed with being big, smooth skating forward. Those guys always look a lot lazier than they actually are, it's amazing how many skilled big guys like him have been pegged as lazy just because they can't move their feet as quickly.
It will be interesting to see how much he gets in free agency. I think he could be a real high value target for teams on a budget looking for a top 6 finisher. Would love for the devils to be in on him, he could score a lot of goals on Hughes' wing.
I think he'll be metro bound, to one of Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, or Columbus.
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