RD Tomas Lavoie - Cape Breton, QMJHL (2024, 89th, UTA)

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Who is ahead of him in the NHL lists from LHJMQ ? Only Masse.

So not a flop. The player has the profile to have a career like David Savard. He will not be an offensive defender in his professional career.

 

[King Makar19]

I prefer him to PuckHog Masse.

 

[BarberPole9]

Who is ahead of him in the NHL lists from LHJMQ ? Only Masse.

So not a flop. The player has the profile to have a career like David Savard. He will not be an offensive defender in his professional career.

Raoul Boilard from Baie Comeau is getting first round buzz.

 

[LeProspector]

Who is ahead of him in the NHL lists from LHJMQ ? Only Masse.

So not a flop. The player has the profile to have a career like David Savard. He will not be an offensive defender in his professional career.

Boilard is much better than the QMJHL bust Lavoie in my opinion. Are you crazy?

 

[dr1234]

Well I mean even if Boilard or (maybe) Lacerte are ahead of him in terms of skill; as far as Q Defense this year go it’s really him and Marcus Kearsay in my opinion. I’m not a huge Lavoie fan but it’s not absurd to think a team will take this kind of profile in the 30-40 range.

 

[BondraTime]

Well I mean even if Boilard or (maybe) Lacerte are ahead of him in terms of skill; as far as Q Defense this year go it’s really him and Marcus Kearsay in my opinion. I’m not a huge Lavoie fan but it’s not absurd to think a team will take this kind of profile in the 30-40 range.

Gill is probably going to be at worst the 2nd D taken by the time the draft roles around

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Boilard is much better than the QMJHL bust Lavoie in my opinion. Are you crazy?

Far from guaranteed. Boilard is surrounded by very successful players. Better doesn't mean anything. They don't even play the same position, they don't have the same profile.

Lavoie is a rare profile on the market.

Even if this were the case, Lavoie would go from 1 to 3 in a Q 2022 redraft.

I have experienced more spectacular falls.

Lavoie plays against the best forwards in the most difficult game situations. Don't imagine a big guy who doesn't know how to defend because he has the worst +/- on his team.

More neutrally, the NHL center evaluates him at B.

 

[LeProspector]

Far from guaranteed. Boilard is surrounded by very successful players.

Even if this were the case, Lavoie would go from 1 to 3 in a Q 2022 redraft.

I have experienced more spectacular falls.

Lavoie plays against the best forwards in the most difficult game situations. Don't imagine a big guy who doesn't know how to defend because he has the worst +/- on his team.

More neutrally, the NHL center evaluates him at B.

Lavoie needs to show more offence to get drafted, his current trajectory has him being drafting in the mid-late rounds.

He might pick it up, but if he stays on this track, he is going no higher than the third round, which would be a VERY disappointing result for a player drafted #1 in the QMJHL draft.

 

[BondraTime]

Lavoie needs to show more offence to get drafted, his current trajectory has him being drafting in the mid-late rounds.

He might pick it up, but if he stays on this track, he is going no higher than the third round, which would be a VERY disappointing result for a player drafted #1 in the QMJHL draft.

And how high did Noah Warren get drafted with the exact same numbers?

Lameroux?

Kleven?

Faber?

Lavoie - 0.37ppg in 27 gp
Warren 42nd - 0.38ppg in 62 gp
Lamoureux 29th - 0.44ppg in 54 gp

It just seems you don't understand how the draft generally works, aside from looking at eliteprospects, nor understand it's not strange for a 1st overall from the Q to be a 2nd day pick. The vast majority are, only 3 of the last 10 1st overalls were 1st round picks in the NHL.

2021 - Gauthier - 37th
2020- Luneau - 53rd
2019 - Roy - 150th
2018 - Lapierre - 22nd
2017 - Laf - 1st
2016 - Groulx - 54th
2015 - Velano - 30th
2014 - Green - 79th
2013 - Roy - 96th
2012 - Audette - 147th
2011 - Mac - 1st
2010 - Fournier - 48th
2009 - Archmbault - 107th
2008 - Gormley - 13th
2007 - Despres - 30th

Lavoie is likely to slide right into where everyone else went, from 25th-75th. Which is expected and perfectly fine.

Lavoie's draft worth isn't going to be dictated by whether or not he can score as a 17 year old in Cape Breton. His draft tools are on par with, at minimum, Warren and Lamoureux

 

[LeProspector]

And how high did Noah Warren get drafted with the exact same numbers?

Lameroux?

Kleven?

Faber?

Lavoie - 0.37ppg in 27 gp
Warren 42nd - 0.38ppg in 62 gp
Lamoureux 29th - 0.44ppg in 54 gp

It just seems you don't understand how the draft generally works, aside from looking at eliteprospects.

Lavoie's draft worth isn't going to be dictated by whether or not he can score as a 17 year old in Cape Breton. His draft tools are on par with, at minimum, Warren and Lamoureux

Warren is a fluid skater, and a rock on defence and Lamoureaux is 6’7”. I also think it‘s disingenuous to compare this player to Faber.

Lavoie is on a downward trajectory, if he was really as good as the #1 pick billing said he was, he would be leading Cape Breton to more wins and picking up more points and be slated to gonin the first round of the NHL draft.

Because of his stalled development, I think he is slated to go no earlier than the 3rd round

 

[BondraTime]

Warren is a fluid skater, and a rock on defence and Lamoureaux is 6’7”. I also think it‘s disingenuous to compare this player to Faber.

Lavoie is on a downward trajectory, if he was really as good as the #1 pick billing said he was, he would be leading Cape Breton to more wins and picking up more points and be slated to gonin the first round of the NHL draft.

Because of his stalled development, I think he is slated to go no earlier than the 3rd round

You're the one who said he needs to show more offense to get drafted, I just used a few guys taken high the past few drafts who never produced offensively.

Yes, the 17 year old should be leading the worst team in every single statistic in the entire CHL to more wins.

There is no stalled development.

How many of the past 10 drafts worth of 1st overalls from the Q do you think went in the 1st round of the NHL draft? I'll give you a hint, it's very, very few

I think this is more punishing for not meeting unrealistic expectations than it is scouting

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Lavoie needs to show more offence to get drafted, his current trajectory has him being drafting in the mid-late rounds.

He might pick it up, but if he stays on this track, he is going no higher than the third round, which would be a VERY disappointing result for a player drafted #1 in the QMJHL draft.

Fake. Noah Warren was drafted 40th while showing little offense. Simashev was drafted 6th with very few points. Skahan and Emery are announced 1st all without offensive. Among the forwards, Nate Danielson was selected 9 even though he scored far fewer points. There are tons of talented players to play the role of offensive defender. But alongside this kind of profile, we need shut down defenders - physical defenders, strong in duels. The question is not whether Lavoie will be drafted, he will be, that's 100% certain. He currently has a 2nd round profile.

I've been following the Q players since Pee Wee. He was never a points guy. He was drafted 1st because there was no better. There were never any high hopes. The 2nd is D'Aigle who is really below par. Massed stagn and has a less good skating. Among the others, it's not crazy. Lavoie would have been born in 2007, he would only have come out 3rd.

Of the No. 1, No. 2 draft Q, there have been much more disappointing ones.

In short, he is assigned defensive functions and his team has no stars. Only 1 player drafted, 4th round.

 

[LeProspector]

Fake. Noah Warren was drafted 40th while showing little offense. Simashev was drafted 6th with very few points. Skahan and Emery are announced 1st all without offensive. Among the forwards, Nate Danielson was selected 9 even though he scored far fewer points. There are tons of talented players to play the role of offensive defender. But alongside this kind of profile, we need shut down defenders - physical defenders, strong in duels. The question is not whether Lavoie will be drafted, he will be, that's 100% certain. He currently has a 2nd round profile.

I've been following the Q players since Pee Wee. He was never a points guy. He was drafted 1st because there was no better. There were never any high hopes. The 2nd is D'Aigle who is really below par. Massed stagn and has a less good skating. Among the others, it's not crazy. Lavoie would have been born in 2007, he would only have come out 3rd.

Of the No. 1, No. 2 draft Q, there have been much more disappointing ones.

In short, he is assigned defensive functions and his team has no stars. Only 1 player drafted, 4th round.

False argument. Look at Masse, Broilard, Desruisseaux, Kearsay, Poirier, Lacerte, Kennedy, Zonnon and even Spencer Gill. All producing just fine.

All you have to do is look at the statistical profile of other members of his club. There are two backliners on his club on his pace or outproducing him. One of them is even a player a year older than him drafted 34th overall a year earlier. If Lavoie can’t convincingly out produce that player as a first round selection, he may not be the player we once thought he’d be. Guess we can continue to search else where because Lavoie isn’t what we once thought he‘d be.

 

[TK 421]

Still on track to go inside the top 64 picks in '24? Or will he slide into the 3rd or later?

 

[BondraTime]

Still on track to go inside the top 64 picks in '24? Or will he slide into the 3rd or later?

Likely to go somewhere in the 25-75 range. Late 1st in the high end, mid/end of 3rd on the low end. Likely gets strong consideration starting around 40th

Going to be another guy that scouts are higher on than those looking at eliteprospects, like the guy above.

 

[LeProspector]

Likely to go somewhere in the 25-75 range. Late 1st in the high end, mid/end of 3rd on the low end. Likely gets strong consideration starting around 40th

Going to be another guy that scouts are higher on than those looking at eliteprospects, like the guy above.

I literally said he gets consideration starting in the third round, if your reading skills we’re up to par, which coinsides with what you said.

I think you’re just looking for an argument. I shouldn’t even be responding to people like you.

 

[BondraTime]

I literally said he gets consideration starting in the third round, if your reading skills we’re up to par, which coinsides with what you said.

I think you’re just looking for an argument. I shouldn’t even be responding to people like you.

Agreed, would be for the better of everyone

Just for clarification, can you give a scouting report on his play, amd toolset that NHL teams will be looking at, this season, other than looking at his stat page and saying that he’s not doing what’s expected for a 1st overall pick?

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

False argument. Look at Masse, Broilard, Desruisseaux, Kearsay, Poirier, Lacerte, Kennedy, Zonnon and even Spencer Gill. All producing just fine.

All you have to do is look at the statistical profile of other members of his club. There are two backliners on his club on his pace or outproducing him. One of them is even a player a year older than him drafted 34th overall a year earlier. If Lavoie can’t convincingly out produce that player as a first round selection, he may not be the player we once thought he’d be. Guess we can continue to search else where because Lavoie isn’t what we once thought he‘d be.

Lavoie is looking good this year. He has immense defensive responsibilities. Really not the kind of players whose level you can measure through the points or +/- column.

Besides, it's a general scam. If there is a game that ends 7-6, players will have scored more points than those who played a 2-1 game. Will they necessarily be better?

Points don't mean much. Cristall and Danielson last year are one example among many others.

 

[Wintersun]

I will say this. You guys comparing him to Lamoureux and Warren and saying stats don't matter is a bit misleading in his case for me.

He has always been an offensive defenseman.

Turning him into a shutdown defenseman at the NHL level is a massive project to me. He's still learning how to be an effective defender in the Q, and the issue is that he's been given big responsibilities and has been failing quite a bit at them, his team is struggling big time when it was expected to compete for a few playoff rounds.

Been watching him since he was 13, and the idea that he is a defensive defenseman is now only starting to pop off because his offensive stats aren't there and to continue justifying his high ranking.

With that said, I would expect him to start producing more and more as time goes on, I do think he's worth picking, but I would find it hard to take him ahead of Alexis Bernier or Spencer Gill at the moment.

For what it's worth, I don't think he should have ever been expected to fill the shoes of a QMJHL draft first overall pick.

 

[rt]

Went back and watched his earlier head to heads with Gill. I’m a big fan of Lavoie, and I like him more than Gill. I also might like Lavoie more than Colton Roberts. Though, I do think I like Harrison Brunicke more than either.

 

[MikeyS]

What a disappointing season for the former 1st overall pick.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

What a disappointing season for the former 1st overall pick.

No, he has established himself as a solid right-handed defenseman who fits needs in the NHL. Aside from Massé, no 2006 Q prospect should be selected before him. The big disappointment is D'Aigle.

The reports I hear about him are very positive.

Round 2 for him.

 

[MikeyS]

No, he has established himself as a solid right-handed defenseman who fits needs in the NHL. Aside from Massé, no 2006 Q prospect should be selected before him. The big disappointment is D'Aigle.

The reports I hear about him are very positive.

Round 2 for him.

Only 24 points in 65 games. That is marginal improvement over his 16 year old season, and it’s not like his team is bad, either. No excuse for the pitiful numbers. Definitely hasn’t lived up to his first overall status, the progression hasn’t been there.

Spencer Gill has shown much better consistency and progression, and I would absolutely take him before this Lavoie. Kearsey has carried his team on his back, and Raoul Broilard might go first round!

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Only 24 points in 65 games. That is marginal improvement over his 16 year old season, and it’s not like his team is bad, either. No excuse for the pitiful numbers. Definitely hasn’t lived up to his first overall status, the progression hasn’t been there.

Spencer Gill has shown much better consistency and progression, and I would absolutely take him before this Lavoie. Kearsey has carried his team on his back, and Raoul Broilard might go first round!

Points don't mean everything, especially for defensive backs. His role is to cover against the best opposing offensive lines.

Noah Warren was selected 40th with the same PPG.

He is above Gill in NHL scout reading. Kearsey is very far away. Boilard perhaps but I have serious doubts.

Lavoie has a much rarer profile.

He is the most physical right-handed shut down in the draft.

 

[Wintersun]

Points don't mean everything, especially for defensive backs. His role is to cover against the best opposing offensive lines.

Noah Warren was selected 40th with the same PPG.

He is above Gill in NHL scout reading. Kearsey is very far away. Boilard perhaps but I have serious doubts.

Lavoie has a much rarer profile.

He is the most physical right-handed shut down in the draft.

And was he a good selection? I personally don't think so.

I don't mind Lavoie tho, but I think his defensive quality is quite overrated.