We can re-assess this if and when he hits 100 points this season in the OHL.
RD Hunter Brzustewicz - Kitchener Rangers, WHL (2023, 75th, VAN; traded to CAL)
- Thread starter Pavel Buchnevich
- Start date
We can re-assess this if and when he hits 100 points this season in the OHL.
Hitting 100 points in junior doesn't change the fact that he's a fundamentally flawed player. We've seen countless examples of flawed offensive dmen fail to transfer their junior play to the NHL.
Fundamentally flawed?
How many Kitchener Rangers games have you seen lately?
All accounts from Ranger fans is that he is an all situation Dman that is elite offensively with room to improve defensively without the puck.. I guess thats flawed, but thats also like 80% of prospects.
Hunter easily goes in the 1st round in a redraft right now.
We see it every year that teams use high picks on "offensive Dman" flawed or not..
Heck the same thing was said about Quinn Hughes to an extent.
Teams will always value these type of players because they are a lottery ticket. If you hit with them then its a home run.
Hunter hitting 100 points will only catapult his value even higher.
I mean, a fundamentally flawed player with his production still probably carries the value of a 2nd round pick in a trade.
No, he's really not. I've watched 3 kitchener games this year, and his skating and positional awareness are still major issues.
Perhaps, I just wouldn't call that an "awesome" trade chip.
Raistlin
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Its not just a simple game of 'buy low sell high' when it comes to trading prospects. No organisation is going to sell on the prospect they invested a 3rd rnd pick on unless something has changed completely that no one outside the organisation knows about.
They believe in this guy enough to draft him, they will see it through not unless an unsolicited offer that knocks their socks off happen. If its a 5th rnder that came out of nowhere I can see a guy like Benning pull the trigger for Clendening. Whatever concerns you as a GM, the other GM is privvy to also... you are not going to get value trading him a year in.
I mean, prospects get traded in trade packages all the time.
We moved Tyler Madden (same age as Brz this season) in the Toffoli deal the last time we were half-decent.
LA moved Brock Faber and Helge Grans in the last year or so to improve.
We’re going to be moving out some prospects to improve the team in the next year or two and Brz would be near the top of my list when you compare potential value relative to potential utility here.
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Several are convinced that Brzustewicz is slow or a poor skater.
So was the entire CHL class in 2023 slow? Because HB was 2nd overall at the Top Prospects in on-ice testing. He was the fastest D-man forward skating with the puck, the fastest of all players backward skating with the puck, third in weave agility ahead of Lardis and Yager, and third in transition agility ahead of Molendyk and Lardis. Objectively HB is an above-average skater. I realize that physical ability can be limited in game situations. But HB's success would make that argument quite weak.
Raistlin
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im not saying prospects dont get traded, its when ppl suggest prospects get dangled immediately the year after they are drafted because they exceed expectation that is unrealistic. Its not stocks, effort was put into drafting them before they call out his name, then the prep development staff puts in to get them to where they are and plans after this year. The same was suggested last year after Lekkerimaki struggled in D+1, talks that this is a bust, sell him when he still has value was rampant. Its really rare that teams dangle their picks this early. Faber, Madden and Grans were all traded after their D+2.
Bankerguy
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I mean he's still not a "lock", if the draft was redone today, i think he'd probably go in the 16 - 22nd range.
Which is a HUGE improvement from being a 3rd round selection.
Still though, How many smallish offensive Dmen who get drafted mid-late 1st round actually become solid top 4 dmen? not too many...
I think he's REALLY improved his stock from being a 3rd roudn pick with a less than like 3 or 4% chance of being an NHLER to a guy with maybe a 15% percent chance of being an NHLer. still great "bang for the buck" though (with buck being usage of picks)
Which is a HUGE improvement from being a 3rd round selection.
Still though, How many smallish offensive Dmen who get drafted mid-late 1st round actually become solid top 4 dmen? not too many...
I think he's REALLY improved his stock from being a 3rd roudn pick with a less than like 3 or 4% chance of being an NHLER to a guy with maybe a 15% percent chance of being an NHLer. still great "bang for the buck" though (with buck being usage of picks)
You think players in the 16-22 range only have a 15% chance of being NHLers? That doesn’t seem right.
Yeah, the games I’ve seen from him his skating certainly isn’t his weakest point.
Agree, he doesn't always skate the hardest but his skating is not a problem. The biggest issue I see with him is puck management, he can be very careless with the puck. I expect that will improve at higher levels with higher standards and coaching (and higher levels of give-a-****). I get the sense that Hunter's give-a-**** is not always very high in the OHL.
One of the worst players at puck management I'd ever seen was Jack Hughes as a prospect. He seems to be doing fine in the NHL.
WarriorofTime
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If Vancouver is buying at the Deadline, I could see him getting packaged with a pick for an upgrade somewhere.
I very much doubt that the Canucks are trading any RHD prospects who are Stars in their D+1 year.
They have literally spent years in the Wilderness searching for these types of players.
Their newish management seems content to play the very long game for development of their prospects before they give up on any of them.
Hunter Brzustewicz will likely be given a long leash to make the Canucks NHL roster.
They have literally spent years in the Wilderness searching for these types of players.
Their newish management seems content to play the very long game for development of their prospects before they give up on any of them.
Hunter Brzustewicz will likely be given a long leash to make the Canucks NHL roster.
Coaches Coroner
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He's not slow. His top speed is good not great, his edges, turning, agility are very good. His acceleration is also solid, if it weren't, then his skating would be more of a problem. His ability to defend at the next level will be more of a hurdle than his puck moving.
Bankerguy
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yeah mid to late first rounders become regular NHLers with 250 games like maybe 20% of the time. I may be wrong but someone did some crazy calculation on HF for like a project at their school. I think Hunter would be a bit below that as he doenst have one skill that really stands head and shoulders above the rest. That's usually a red flag for me
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His top speed is decent, I should have been more clear; "slowish" was a lazy comment. His footspeed and transitional skating both need work. He is pretty powerful, especially in straight lines., but he has what I like to call "heavy feet".
He's a talented offensive player at the junior level, there's no question about that. But the whole Kitchener team is running hot. They are shooting 15.5% as a team, 26% higher than the 12.3% they shot at last year.
6 of the teams top 7 goal scorers are shooting over 20%. Here are the shooting percentages of their current top 7 goal scorers:
22.0%
20.2%
16.2%
20.6%
20.3%
20.3%
21.4%
Now compare that to last year, where no Kitchener Ranger had a 20% sh% last year. Here are the shooting percentages of last year's top 7 goal scorers:
17.6%
16.9%
19.3%
14.6%
14.1%
16.9%
12.0%
TLDR: He's due for some pretty significant regression. He should probably be pacing closer to 85 points per 68gp vs the 108 points he's paced for to date. If I had to bet, he will end up around ~95 points if he plays the full season.
Could definitely see Hunter being traded as part of the package to fix the current NHL roster.
Perhaps for a player under contract and plays Top 4 D in the NHL now and fits the Hughes/Pettersson age range.
Lets not forget that Hronek is only 25 yrs old and Willander was a recent 1st round pick who is trending very well. They might look at their top 2 pairings on the right side as solid for the next 8 -10 years.
You draft Best Player Available at the draft for this very reason of hoping their stock grows so that they can be of use to you as either part of your core or as part of a big trade piece.
Perhaps for a player under contract and plays Top 4 D in the NHL now and fits the Hughes/Pettersson age range.
Lets not forget that Hronek is only 25 yrs old and Willander was a recent 1st round pick who is trending very well. They might look at their top 2 pairings on the right side as solid for the next 8 -10 years.
You draft Best Player Available at the draft for this very reason of hoping their stock grows so that they can be of use to you as either part of your core or as part of a big trade piece.
Caser
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I'm really sorry, but pretty much every time I see his name I remember this vid:
I’d hang onto him personally. It really makes no sense to trade a prospect who has exceeded expectations unless the value is really high. The Canucks got burnt on trading Forsling for basically nothing and I’d rather not repeat that mistake.
Why do people keep saying he's small or small ish? Or that he can't skate?
He was one of the higher rated skaters in testing last year and his draft height and weight are in the goldilocks zone for modern defensemen.
In the last near 30 ish years I think only 4 or 5 defensemen larger than 6 foot 2 and heavier than about 210 pounds have won the Norris and they're absolute outliers as the challengers in those years and predominent winners are all between 6 foot and 6 foot 2 and 190 to 210 pounds.
at 6 foot 190 pounds in his draft year he's actually larger than Letang, Hughes, Makar, Fox and Karlsson in their draft years and they all seem to be doing ok.
He was one of the higher rated skaters in testing last year and his draft height and weight are in the goldilocks zone for modern defensemen.
In the last near 30 ish years I think only 4 or 5 defensemen larger than 6 foot 2 and heavier than about 210 pounds have won the Norris and they're absolute outliers as the challengers in those years and predominent winners are all between 6 foot and 6 foot 2 and 190 to 210 pounds.
at 6 foot 190 pounds in his draft year he's actually larger than Letang, Hughes, Makar, Fox and Karlsson in their draft years and they all seem to be doing ok.
