RD Artyom Levshunov - Michigan State Univ., NCAA (2024, 2nd, CHI)

[majormajor]

I can sort of see it, but ultimately I lean away from it. A couple reasons, Jack Johnson was basically a power forward lining up at defense when he was a prospect. He was more reckless than Levshunov. He was much consistently tougher than Levshunov. And he was a big end to end rush guy, it felt like Jack had the puck too much. It was all just a little more extreme and mean compared to what we have here for me.

It's not crazy by any means though. It's almost hard to pull up the image of what JMFJ looked like as a prospect given how many changes he's gone through in his career haha

Your memory of JJ as a prospect is surely better than mine, I'll take your word for it. I know JJ's game the best from his time in Columbus. He was a chaotic rover for the first few years, before Torts arrived, but he had already eschewed the end to end craziness. There were big issues with his passing and positioning.

 

[belfour30]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808536622545133868

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

For the first time in a while (excuse the rust on top of the lack of talent), I put together a video breakdown on a prospect. This isn't a highlight reel or even really a blow by blow scouting report (both have been done to death on this player I think)...but I took a look into how he generates offense and a little bit of the structural and mental processor concerns that I have...

It's not super flowery, so it might not be for everyone...but it was created in good faith.

The thing with Bouchard that I think might be missing in Levshunov's game is Bouchard's calmness and poise. Bouchard's ability to slow the game down is absolutely elite, while in Levshunov's game there's a rushed and hurried quality that can limit his effectiveness.

There's a reason Evan Bouchard is one of the top defensemen in the league analytically. With and without McDavid on the ice, the ice is tilted heavily in his favour — even when it comes to suppressing chances against. Those analytics are pretty surprising when you consider his defensive warts, and in my opinion that discrepancy is best explained with his poise and patience. More than anything, Bouchard is a puck possession monster, and that makes him an overwhelming net positive on the ice offensively and defensively. Levshunov has that sense of urgency in his game that can be an asset, but I don't see him having that same presence that Bouchard does due to his lack of poise.

One distinction I make that I don't often see made is defending vs defensive impact. I consider Bouchard excellent defensively (because his poise and impact on puck possession leads to few chances against), though I don't think he's particularly great at defending. On the other hand, a Kris Russell was a great defender but very poor defensively and always hemmed in his own zone. Levshunov is clearly a poor defender at this point in his career, as you described in your video, and that may or may not be coachable. The question for me is whether he can develop a positive defensive impact in the NHL, and I don't think there's as clear a path for him as there was for Bouchard.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Those analytics are pretty surprising when you consider his defensive warts,

It is. And some guy's analytics are not some other guy's analytics. It's not like "analytics" is a singular entity, of course. Not that I want to poke the bear right now on Bouchard because his fame is at an all time high when I don't think his personal game is so far beyond where it was a year and a half ago to justify it. But, the analytics that you're looking at, is there an B.E. A.E (Before Ekholm/After Ekholm) split that you've seen?

I will say that I appreciate your reasonable viewpoint on it, but I don't necessarily subscribe to the terminology applied. But I don't want to drag this thread too far off course. But I do think it's an interesting distinction between the two. I want to do some more research on that potential differential that you suggest before I commit to a feeling on it...but I didn't want to gloss over the comment entirely either because it is thoughtful.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

It is. And some guy's analytics are not some other guy's analytics. It's not like "analytics" is a singular entity, of course. Not that I want to poke the bear right now on Bouchard because his fame is at an all time high when I don't think his personal game is so far beyond where it was a year and a half ago to justify it. But, the analytics that you're looking at, is there an B.E. A.E (Before Ekholm/After Ekholm) split that you've seen?

I will say that I appreciate your reasonable viewpoint on it, but I don't necessarily subscribe to the terminology applied. But I don't want to drag this thread too far off course. But I do think it's an interesting distinction between the two. I want to do some more research on that potential differential that you suggest before I commit to a feeling on it...but I didn't want to gloss over the comment entirely either because it is thoughtful.

Thanks for the reply. I’ll try not to go into too much detail either so as not to derail the thread.

I used the word analytics broadly because Bouchard fares well in pretty much any stat you can find. When it comes to controlling the pace of play, a stat I like is that Bouchard is in the 98th percentile for most time spent in the O-zone, and in the 97th percentile for least time spent in the D zone. That’s an example of that distinction I made; while he’s not especially good at defending, his ice-tilting ability means he simply doesn’t have to defend very often. And while Ekholm has certainly helped, his analytics were also great when paired with Keith previously.

Back to Levshunov, I don’t see that same poise and ability to slow down the play. But he is also toolsier than Bouchard and a much better skater at the same age.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808536622545133868

Really? Unless a player has an issue with their NCAA team or is a threat to not sign it usually isn’t a good idea to take them out of the NCAA for the AHL. Even worse if it’s for a bad developmental AHL team.

 

[Tanknation]

For a 29 year old, 2nd overall pick, I think he has looked great so far.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Really? Unless a player has an issue with their NCAA team or is a threat to not sign it usually isn’t a good idea to take them out of the NCAA for the AHL. Even worse if it’s for a bad developmental AHL team.

Why do you think Chicago AHL's team will be bad for his development?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Why do you think Chicago AHL's team will be bad for his development?

Is it? I don't know if it is. I was saying in general.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Is it? I don't know if it is. I was saying in general.

I don't know. I know the Hawks are happy with Vlasic's time in Rockford and they're happy how Del Mastro and Kaiser are developing. I don't have an opinion as to which is better for a dman's development- elite NCAA program or playing big minutes in all situations in the AHL. Naturally, it would depend on the quality of coaching at each level.

 

[JackSlater]

Really? Unless a player has an issue with their NCAA team or is a threat to not sign it usually isn’t a good idea to take them out of the NCAA for the AHL. Even worse if it’s for a bad developmental AHL team.

I recall hearing a discussion regarding Levshunov on the NHL network on Sirius maybe two weeks ago and they made note of how much he apparently disliked the school aspect of the NCAA and sort of implied that he was done with classes once the hockey season finished. I haven't heard it anywhere else but it wouldn't surprise me, and it follows that he would then just be moving on to the AHL or NHL.

 

[BKarchitect]

I think it was a forgone conclusion, despite his warts and rough spots in his game, that whoever drafted Lev was going to immediately bring him up to the pro level. I said it months ago and I wasn’t advocating for it as a “best path”, merely that his raw physical tools were going to be way, way too enticing for an NHL club not to want to bring them into their pro development system ASAP.

The good news is that AHL Rockford has been developing some real nice blueline talent…and the signings of old farts like Martinez and Brodie make it unlikely Lev will be rushed into the NHL like Korchinski was…which I think would be bad. I actually think there’s a decent chance Korchinski is sent down to Rockford for this year and we see a Rockford team with the likes of Lev, KK and Nazar where Chicago tries to build up their top guys.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Why do you think Chicago AHL's team will be bad for his development?

Because he's been in 3 different leagues in 3 years. It's better for him to stay in school 1 more year, learn how to play in a more structured system, playing all situations and make himself as prepared as possible for professional hockey. He hasn't mastered college hockey yet, but he had a really good freshman season.

Moving him to the AHL is an impatient move that would suggest an organization that doesn't know how best to handle it's prospects, especially ones that aren't fully formed yet. It would be a really bad idea. I do think CHI probably realizes that though.

 

[Dr Quincy]

I don't know. I know the Hawks are happy with Vlasic's time in Rockford and they're happy how Del Mastro and Kaiser are developing. I don't have an opinion as to which is better for a dman's development- elite NCAA program or playing big minutes in all situations in the AHL. Naturally, it would depend on the quality of coaching at each level.

Del Mastro played 2 years after his draft year before playing in the AHL. Kaiser and Vlasic played 3 years in the NCAA after their draft year. If anything that says exactly why Lev SHOULDN'T go to the AHL. Seems like playing a couple more years before signing was a good thing for those players.

2 years or 3 years isn't the same as 5 months. One more year of NCAA would be best then next year AHL. But seems like he probably wants to start his pro career now.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Del Mastro played 2 years after his draft year before playing in the AHL. Kaiser and Vlasic played 3 years in the NCAA after their draft year. If anything that says exactly why Lev SHOULDN'T go to the AHL. Seems like playing a couple more years before signing was a good thing for those players.

2 years or 3 years isn't the same as 5 months. One more year of NCAA would be best then next year AHL. But seems like he probably wants to start his pro career now.

Levshunov is further along in his development than either of those players were so it's not an apples to apples comparison.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Because he's been in 3 different leagues in 3 years. It's better for him to stay in school 1 more year, learn how to play in a more structured system, playing all situations and make himself as prepared as possible for professional hockey. He hasn't mastered college hockey yet, but he had a really good freshman season.

Moving him to the AHL is an impatient move that would suggest an organization that doesn't know how best to handle it's prospects, especially ones that aren't fully formed yet. It would be a really bad idea. I do think CHI probably realizes that though.

I'm not saying one is the path is better than the other but I do have confidence that Chicago has more expertise and is more qualified to help Levushunov make this decision than anyone in this thread.

 

[Agent Zub]

I've flagged that exact play here at 2:09 in posts before. It's certainly one of Levshunov's (or any top prospects) worst looking plays this year.



He makes a bad challenge at the point and after he gets burned he doesn't get back to the net to help tie up sticks, instead he wheels out wide for some reason? I can't explain how this mistake was made.

Edit: What do you think of the Jack Johnson comparison?

I see Lev to some extent with Bouchard. Though I think Bouchard is a much better passer, he settles pucks and doesn't toss grenades. Levshunov meanwhile is a better skater and stronger. Where Bouchard makes mistakes it's often the case that he can't physically recover, while Levshunov physically can but for whatever reason doesn't recover. And obviously the shot - Bouchard's defining characteristic, which Levshunov doesn't have. Lev has a good quick release on his wrister though.

The reason I prefer the Jack Johnson comparison is because he's a unit and a great skater who in his "prime" played a chaotic rover style. Lev's puck skills are more like Johnson than Bouchard, in my opinion.

I was thinking it was going to be something unjustifiable.

But man the "bad" challenge is actually really smart. He sees that the point men has his head down and spinning around so tries to surprise him with a poke check and hopefully force a breakaway. It doesn't work, he misexecutes and misses the puck or the pointmen just makes a great play. But I mean clearly his intentions are good and a play a smart player tries to make. It was a good gamble to take with a high reward.

In terms of going back I think he just assumes that he is taking the wingers responsibility now since he was up by the point and he probably assumes one of his teammates covered for him.

Should he have gone straight back to his net? Probably. But he is offensively tilted and maybe saw an opportunity where the puck was going to be wacked out wide to start an odd man rush.

Offensive players will sometimes cheat for a rush. Don't think it's any deeper than that.

 

[majormajor]

I was thinking it was going to be something unjustifiable.

But man the "bad" challenge is actually really smart. He sees that the point men has his head down and spinning around so tries to surprise him with a poke check and hopefully force a breakaway. It doesn't work, he misexecutes and misses the puck or the pointmen just makes a great play. But I mean clearly his intentions are good and a play a smart player tries to make. It was a good gamble to take with a high reward.

In terms of going back I think he just assumes that he is taking the wingers responsibility now since he was up by the point and he probably assumes one of his teammates covered for him.

Should he have gone straight back to his net? Probably. But he is offensively tilted and maybe saw an opportunity where the puck was going to be wacked out wide to start an odd man rush.

Offensive players will sometimes cheat for a rush. Don't think it's any deeper than that.

The problem with the pokecheck is not that a pokecheck is wrong in that situation, it's that he does it before he can even reach the puck, so his opponent can easily read what he's doing and walk around him. Pokechecks should be disguised, for the same reason that goalies have to hide it if they plan on doing it. It's not a big deal, just a somewhat baffling technical error, you'd think an NCAA level player would have better technique.

The more worrying problem was when he got back into the play, he clearly has five opponents in front of him going to his net. The PK winger role there is also to go to the net and tie up a man. Being able to count is really important. I don't mean literal counting, I mean that players with okay hockey sense would all know if there were five players in front of them and zero behind them. It's possible that Lev knew and just made a poor decision.

Being able to know when to cheat and when to play defense is a really difficult thing. Successful rovers in the NHL all have incredible hockey sense. I think if you try to have Levshunov play this way in the NHL he would be picked to pieces.

I don't think Lev has the hockey sense to be a #1 with any playstyle. There are plenty of D in the NHL who have #1 type tools. There aren't many that move better than Mike Matheson or Thomas Chabot, but those guys aren't #1s because they don't process the game well enough. Same with Nurse and Provorov.