Man i just really hope he doesnt hit a brick wall after game 50ish or so. What do you guys think the odds are of him having a step-back season next year? I mean he looms so composed out there like hes played in the nhl forever and isnt just "treading water" like certain other rookies, so maybe he doesnt have the sophomore slump, but do you think it's likely?
I think guys who have great production in their rookie seasons (or any season) are always at risk of "underwhelming" production the next year even if their level of play remains more or less constant, just because of how much goes into putting up that kind of production. That's especially true of defenseman. If guys aren't converting on your outlet passes, tipping your shots, or screening the goalie, you can only do so much. Variance in PP effectiveness also impacts guys a lot. So, it wouldn't surprise me if his numbers dip.
Another thing that's common is that guys break into the league in protected roles, then struggle in tougher roles. Almost everyone breaks into soft roles in this league, especially teenagers. That's not the case with Ekblad, though. He's not going to see some great step up in minutes, competition, or zone usage. I don't see that being a factor at all.
The last factor is all mental. Even the most level-headed, smart athletes might for one reason or another go into their second season feeling a bit too comfortable or, conversely, finding the expectations they set to get into their heads a bit. You can never really be sure who that hits but there's no reason to assume Ekblad will fall victim to it.
TL;DR I don't think his level of play will slump. Perhaps for a stretch, just as it might this season, but I don't think he'll have a down year. I could see his numbers dipping independent of his play. The more intriguing question for me is where does his career go from here? How much better will he get? With how good a rookie season he's having, I'm guessing a lot of people will be disappointed if he doesn't become Shea Weber-level good, which isn't really fair.