Series Talk: Rangers vs. Carolina (Game 1, Sunday May 5th @ 4pm ET, ESPN)

[Hire Sather]

I wouldn't wait for a loss to play your best lineup. Rempe is still taking too many penalties.

Why wait to get behind? Sub Chytil for Rempe G1

 

[FultonReed]

Looks like ESPN has the game starting at 4pm which feels like an odd time.

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looks pretty even to me

 

[GAGLine]

Not for nothing, but when I was in elementary school i wrote the Mars candy company expressing my displeasure with the amount of brown M&Ms in my pack...they sent me some coupons

I couldn't tell you why, but the brown ones were my favorite. Maybe because they were the color of chocolate, I don't know.

 

[TominNC]

I’d rather start the series fresh with Chytil. If the crowd or team needs more juice for game 1 that’s already an issue. You can always get Rempe in there for game 2 if somehow needed.

 

[Filip Chytil]

 

[romba]

Fox smiled and said sly “he got a Pesce of me”

 

[PuckLuck3043]

This place is going to get rough after our first loss since so many posters seem to be tentatively allowing themselves to become hopeful for the first time since last year.

Anytime this team loses 1 game the season is over.

 

[GAGLine]

I’d rather start the series fresh with Chytil. If the crowd or team needs more juice for game 1 that’s already an issue. You can always get Rempe in there for game 2 if somehow needed.

Rempe is more likely to be affective at home, where we have the last change. You know Brind'Amour will try to exploit that matchup when the games shift to Carolina.

 

[eco's bones]

Have heard that the Canes expect Pesce to play games in this series.....if he's not playing the first two....what does that exactly mean? 3 or 4? Game 5? 6? 7. What if there isn't a 5, 6 or 7? It might just be signaling they hope so or kind of just leaving it out there.

 

[Alluckks]

Zib and Fox were great against Carolina in our series with them 2 years ago. Goals in that series were 20-13 Rangers over 7 games. Chytil had 4 goals, 20% of our team’s scoring. This series will be higher scoring.

Carolina’s leading goal scorer in that 2022 series: Vincent Trocheck

 

[Matt Rentfree]

NYR scored more 5v5 goals than CAR… the only metric that matters in the end.

That's actually not true, but the difference in 5v5 goals is negligible. Rangers - 166, Canes - 169. The Rangers did score more ES goals though. Rangers 214, Canes 210. They're very evenly matched teams and this series will be a coin toss.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I absolutely love the fact that Lav is sticking with Rempe to start the series.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

I absolutely love the fact that Lav is sticking with Rempe to start the series.

I don't want to see Rempe hurt anyone, but I DO want the Canes defense to be scared of getting hurt.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I don't want to see Rempe hurt anyone, but I DO want the Canes defense to be scared of getting hurt.

That's pretty much it, I want Rempe to inflict maximum carnage on every hit without injuring someone.

 

[kovazub94]

Oh, I get it and I'm not coming at you for defending the methodology. I just think a lot of this stuff is hot garbage.

Someone posted a stat showing Kakko's line was tops in the playoffs for expected goals or whatever, while only scoring one goal the entire series. And I'm not picking on them. I think that line was very good (better than I anticipated) and was pleased with each guy's play for the most part. But saying they're tops in anything (outside of their stellar defensive play maybe) because they're expected to score more goals, even though they scored very, very, very few goals is a bit comical. If you need a goal late in the game, what line you putting out there? I know what line you aren't, and that's Kakko's line. You think Lav is on the bench yelling over to Muse or Pecca asking what line has the hot xGF or whatever?

Here are two things that would lead me to be skeptical of accuracy of high expected goals at even strength: low conversion over a long period of time, and not as good expected goals on PP.

 

[kovazub94]

I think alot of people who are anti analytics just come off as idiots who can't be bothered to even do the slightest bit of research.

Even MOST analytically driven people will tell you that their models are biased towards teams like Carolina. They'll even acknowledge that they don't (or really cannot) take into account certain things (in this series case, the ability for the Rangers to absolutely manhandle the Canes physically if the Refs don't get overly involved) or that they overvalue attempts for in lieu of actual quality.

Does it mean that their models need updating/find a way to account for/more accurately weight certain things? Yeah it does. I've felt for a while that most models almost ignore special teams and while most of a game does take place 5v5, 99.9% of games have enough of a special teams impact where they can and do make a difference.

Does it mean your eye test is better? .0000001% chance that this is true.

So basically, the analytical prognostications are probably off and your eye test still sucks so shut the f*** up.

That’s interesting. Re. models imperfections - I don’t understand then how folks who are aware of this imperfection and who are aware that Canes are analytical darlings while the Rangers are barely middle of the pack can say they are “concerned” about an opponent and in support of their position reference said imperfect?

Also an interesting point would be find a stat to show a percentage in how many games special teams made a difference. It might require doing it manually the first time around but I have a feeling that the outcome will show that number to be pretty high - and I would go by this definition special play rather than separate PP and PK which we already have stats for.

You're a champ of analytics, except when they don't support the bias that you have chosen to define yourself by.

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Panarin's primary job is to drive offense. That's exactly what he did in the first round. Yet, you say he was below par in the first round. Either the stats are wrong or you are wrong. There is no third choice.

The beauty of your position is that you've set up that if the Rangers don't win the Cup, you'll blame Panarin. Since the odds greatly favor them not winning the Cup, you'll be proven right. If they do win the Cup, you'll explain that the Rangers won in spite of Panarin.

It’s easy to be a hater.

 

[kovazub94]

Here how I feel about playing Canes - they are IMO the weakest team among those left. Have no idea how the series would go but I’d feel this way about any opponent at this stage. There’re no bad teams left that make second round.

 

[TominNC]

Rempe is more likely to be affective at home, where we have the last change. You know Brind'Amour will try to exploit that matchup when the games shift to Carolina.

Or play Chytil, go up 2-0 and worry less about the change.

 

[TominNC]

That's pretty much it, I want Rempe to inflict maximum carnage on every hit without injuring someone.

That's not logical. If Rempe is out there throwing hits that don't hurt, he's just a guy. It's the crushing aching hits that make him effective and worry teams.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

 

[80s Kid]

I'm curious if the number of regulation wins (RW) during the regular season is a better indicator of playoff success than # of points. Obviously no 3v3 or shootouts in playoffs so you're only comparing the teams success in an "apples-to-apples" sort of way. There's a reason it's used as the first tiebreaker.

Another observation I've had watching other teams is that I honestly think the Rangers are better than almost every other team at finishing chances. I don't know what the stats are and lots of people have gotten on this team for over passing (myself included), but I might be having a change of heart.

The Rangers love the east/west game and "Royal Road" but when other teams try to pull off similar E/W plays, they just aren't as good. Flubbed passes and missing the net on breakaways in addition to a lot of shots on goal that are just too easy for the goalie to save.

Beating a goalie clean is extremely difficult and even more so in the playoffs with better goaltending. My thought is the Rangers aren't great with analytics because they don't need the same # of chances to score goals compared to other teams. They've been doing this E/W stuff for a while now and it's improved enough to allow them to generate more HD chances and bury more of them. It's easier to beat a good goalie with 1-timers and quick passing (royal road) compared to just firing shots, even if the shooter is wide open...most goalies are just too good to let those by. Yes, every goalie gives up bad goals, but in the playoffs, that's less likely.

We'll see against the Canes but I really do think Vally is on to something with the royal road argument. It's just hard to be able to pull off enough of these types of passes to take advantage but I think the Rangers have the talent to pull it off.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I'm curious if the number of regulation wins (RW) during the regular season is a better indicator of playoff success than # of points. Obviously no 3v3 or shootouts in playoffs so you're only comparing the teams success in an "apples-to-apples" sort of way. There's a reason it's used as the first tiebreaker.

Another observation I've had watching other teams is that I honestly think the Rangers are better than almost every other team at finishing chances. I don't know what the stats are and lots of people have gotten on this team for over passing (myself included), but I might be having a change of heart.

The Rangers love the east/west game and "Royal Road" but when other teams try to pull off similar E/W plays, they just aren't as good. Flubbed passes and missing the net on breakaways in addition to a lot of shots on goal that are just too easy for the goalie to save.

Beating a goalie clean is extremely difficult and even more so in the playoffs with better goaltending. My thought is the Rangers aren't great with analytics because they don't need the same # of chances to score goals compared to other teams. They've been doing this E/W stuff for a while now and it's improved enough to allow them to generate more HD chances and bury more of them. It's easier to beat a good goalie with 1-timers and quick passing (royal road) compared to just firing shots, even if the shooter is wide open...most goalies are just too good to let those by. Yes, every goalie gives up bad goals, but in the playoffs, that's less likely.

We'll see against the Canes but I really do think Vally is on to something with the royal road argument. It's just hard to be able to pull off enough of these types of passes to take advantage but I think the Rangers have the talent to pull it off.

The team with the most RW, the Jets were embarrassed last round.

 

[mrmovies779]

I'm worried our 4th line is going to get stuck in their own zone every time they are on the ice.Hope they prove me wrong

 

[80s Kid]

The team with the most RW, the Jets were embarrassed last round.

Fair point but as MH would say, I like large sample sizes.

 

[RangersFan1994]