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Series Talk: Rangers vs. Carolina (Game 1, Sunday May 5th @ 4pm ET, ESPN)

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DanielBrassard said:
Not surprised that the analytics have us as underdogs, but I don’t believe it’s that big of a gap. These teams are always playing each others close regardless of the Carolina shot volume approach.
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The gap is in 5v5 play and xRigamarole whatever. Our powerplay is now basically equal, so the big edge is in 5v5. They also had a few more powerplays than we did so its not like our 5v5 play outdraws them or anything.

I do not mind this matchup since we have seen how we play against them, but we shouldn't be surprised about the numbers.
 
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DialUp said:
The gap is in 5v5 play and xRigamarole whatever. Our powerplay is now basically equal, so the big edge is in 5v5. They also had a few more powerplays than we did so its not like our 5v5 play outdraws them or anything.

I do not mind this matchup since we have seen how we play against them, but we shouldn't be surprised about the numbers.
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Are they really that much better 5x5? Rangers scored 278 goals, 64 on the PP. Carolina scored 277 goals, 67 on the PP. I'm not saying Ranges are gonna waltz to the ECF, but this idea that Carolina dominates them 5x5 is a bunch of bullshit.
 
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This Carolina team is going to need to prove it to me before I buy into some of the predictions we're seeing. Not that I think we're heavy favourites, but it's a close call.

It seems like there's a concensus that the Canes are one of the top teams, but I don't even think they're in the top 5 of teams that are still playing.
 
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Harbour Dog said:
This Carolina team is going to need to prove it to me before I buy into some of the predictions we're seeing. Not that I think we're heavy favourites, but it's a close call.

It seems like there's a concensus that the Canes are one of the top teams, but I don't even think they're in the top 5 of teams that are still playing.
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it's not a secret why they are so beloved by analytic models. They keep the puck on their stick, they forecheck aggressively, recover the puck in the defensive and offensive corners, and transition well. they exit the D zone and enter the O zone with possession. They create lots of shots on net and crash the paint.

The Rangers don't do a lot of these things as well or in the same way. There's more one and dones. More flybys. more chips without really chasing. more standing around during breakouts. less time with the puck on their stick.

These things are what the model values, so it rates Carolina as better. The whole idea is that actual point production is much more luck based than shot- and chance-creation process. The reason the Rangers confound these models frequently is that they produce goals and prohibit goals to win games without doing all of the stuff the models love at an elite level.

I know this isn't new info.. I just get why the models have us as big underdogs. Our first line doesn't possess the puck.
 
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Pawnee Rangers said:
Are they really that much better 5x5? Rangers scored 278 goals, 64 on the PP. Carolina scored 277 goals, 67 on the PP. I'm not saying Ranges are gonna waltz to the ECF, but this idea that Carolina dominates them 5x5 is a bunch of bullshit.
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It comes from xGF and other metrics.

Look, even if we appear to be getting caved i STILL think we got it, numbers be damned. I am just talking about where these percentages are coming from is all.
 
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noncents said:
it's not a secret why they are so beloved by analytic models. They keep the puck on their stick, they forecheck aggressively, recover the puck in the defensive and offensive corners, and transition well. they exit the D zone and enter the O zone with possession. They create lots of shots on net and crash the paint.

The Rangers don't do a lot of these things as well or in the same way. There's more one and dones. More flybys. more chips without really chasing. more standing around during breakouts. less time with the puck on their stick.

These things are what the model values, so it rates Carolina as better. The whole idea is that actual point production is much more luck based than shot- and chance-creation process. The reason the Rangers confound these models frequently is that they produce goals and prohibit goals to win games without doing all of the stuff the models love at an elite level.

I know this isn't new info.. I just get why the models have us as big underdogs. Our first line doesn't possess the puck.
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Reason the model loves Carolina's play is because that is what predicts positive results from a statistical lens. I myself find it hard to fully understand what percentages and statistics really mean. It doesn't mean ABSOLUTES. Emotional brain kicks in though
 
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DialUp said:
It comes from xGF and other metrics.

Look, even if we appear to be getting caved i STILL think we got it, numbers be damned. I am just talking about where these percentages are coming from is all.
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Oh, I get it and I'm not coming at you for defending the methodology. I just think a lot of this stuff is hot garbage.

Someone posted a stat showing Kakko's line was tops in the playoffs for expected goals or whatever, while only scoring one goal the entire series. And I'm not picking on them. I think that line was very good (better than I anticipated) and was pleased with each guy's play for the most part. But saying they're tops in anything (outside of their stellar defensive play maybe) because they're expected to score more goals, even though they scored very, very, very few goals is a bit comical. If you need a goal late in the game, what line you putting out there? I know what line you aren't, and that's Kakko's line. You think Lav is on the bench yelling over to Muse or Pecca asking what line has the hot xGF or whatever?
 
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Cmox said:
Didnt a Steve Sommers coin Icelanders? I know he said Mausoleum in reference to the Coliseum. He was a fun radio guy.
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Rumor has it that sleeping aids weren't invented until after "The Schmooze" retired. It was great listening to him at night.

Also, I didn't know where to put this, but I hope Pizza Hut does not make the same mistake of offering deals-too-good to Ed, and the same for Outback for the sake of our Aussies on this board.
 
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I only hope this is a day game because I'm seeing Sum 41 with The Interrupters on Sunday night. I'm still sad Sum 41 is breaking up. Their new album is amazing. The Interrupters are so good live as well as Sum 41.
 
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RangersFan1994 said:
I only hope this is a day game because I'm seeing Sum 41 with The Interrupters on Sunday night. I'm still sad Sum 41 is breaking up. Their new album is amazing. The Interrupters are so good live as well as Sum 41.
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WFAN just reported Game 1 is scheduled for 4 (four) PM in order to ensure NBA can get a NY TV audience.
 
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