Revolving door of prospects and yet another mistake that had to be corrected doesnt bother any of you right?
How about we get it right the first time?
What if we're here two years from now when either Thomas or Mcilrath are busts or traded before they even play one game?
Business as usual in Rangerland and most are like 'whatever'.
I think you're being a little overly dramatic.
We traded a second round pick for another second round pick. Yes, it would have been great were Werek to work out here, but it didn't happen. That happens to every team. About 25% of second round picks turn into career NHL players, the rest bust. 3 out of 4 picks fail, across the NHL.
In the past decade, we've drafted the following players in the second round:
Ivan Baranka
Lee Falardeau
Fedor Tyutin
Darin Olver
Dane Byers
Bruce Graham
Brandon Dubinsky
Mike Sauer
MA Cliche
Artem Anisimov
Antoine Lafleur
Derek Stepan
-----------
Ethan Werek
Christian Thomas
Of the players whose futures can reasonably be determined, we have 5 NHL players from 12 picks. We can't evaluate Werek and Thomas yet. Baranka may have become an NHL player had he decided to stay, but we won't count him. We're drafting at over a 40% success rate in the second round, which is
considerably better than the average NHL team.
If we were talking about another first round pick for us that didn't pan out, that would be different. Nearly 60% of first round picks pan out and become career NHL players, and I'm sure we're well below that. But in the second round, the chances of success are far lower. I'm not going to throw my arms up in frustration that we moved one second rounder for another, especially when the jury is still out on both of them.
If Thomas busts, that sucks, but I'd still tell you there's a 75% chance that it was going to happen. And that we're still above the curve with second round picks. McIlrath is not completely relevant to this discussion, as there's that huge gap between success of first and second round picks. Would you compare a failed fifth round pick to a failed second round pick? No, apples and oranges. But the difference in success rates between a fifth and a second is similar to the rates between a second and a first.
Just last year I was hearing about how great the future was with Werek included in that. Which prospect do they change their mind on next year?
I don't know who "they" refers to, but it's not me. I think you know me well enough to know that I'm realistic, bordering on pessimistic with my projections (and my hopes for the future).
It's easy to lump together a generic group of "they." But who is "they?" We all know there are quite a few people on HF who don't know their ass from their elbow.
I like him too, but not ready to say it was good or bad, just kinda pissed that our guys have little clue on what theyre doing.
Speaking particularly to players taken in round two, that's untrue. We're well above average. The first round is the problem. We're one of the most successful teams in the league drafting NHL players outside of round one. That we suck in the first round is obviously a HUGE problem, but only part of the discussion when it comes to our drafts.
Let's say the team has evaluated Werek since we drafted him, and now feels that he has a lower ceiling or higher bust potential than previously thought. Should we sit on our hands, and hold onto Werek, just because we drafted him? If they've soured on him as a player, I'd much rather they go and get a comparably valued player than sit back allow Werek to renter the draft. What if HE didn't want to sign with us? Again, do we sit back? I like that the team is constantly evaluating and reevaluating players.