Confirmed with Link: Rangers to sign Jacob Elmer (RW) (Official announcement in #79)

[eco's bones]

Last time the Rangers drafted a WHL player in the first round was Dylan McIlrath in 2010--before that it was Dan Blackburn in 2001---so yeah every 9 years and this is the 9th year.

But saying that the Rangers don't have much recent history of drafting players out of the WHL--the last one before this was Ty Ronning in the last round of the draft. Not saying it won't be a WHL player but my guess is that early pick will be either a European or someone from US National program.......and who knows we might win the lottery.

Anyway apparently Elmer's scored a goal in 14 of his last 15 games.

 

[Edge]

If he was born a day later, where do you think he would've gone in the Draft?

I think he might’ve been on teams radars from about the sixth round onward.

Usually your guys who are a year older can find themselves being mentioned as possibilities starting in the third round. When you start getting closer to two years, you’re usually in that sixth round range — if you’re lucky.

In Elmer’s case there’s going to be pushback because the leap forward was so substantial, and because he’s riding shotgun to a guy who could be the third pick in the draft.

But the reality is that most people probably wouldn’t have paused for too long if he was selected late in this draft.

 

[Joey Bones]

So Brendan Lemieux?

Lesser version, but I could see it!!

 

[Tawnos]

The only real philosophy with UDFAs when you have contract spots available is to throw everything at the wall and see what you got.

And because of the variance with these things, it really doesn’t matter what Grachev, Gropp, Leedahl, or anyone else did or has done. As human beings, we’re always looking for patterns, but there really isn’t a pattern to be had with these things.

 

[Edge]

Last time the Rangers drafted a WHL player in the first round was Dylan McIlrath in 2010--before that it was Dan Blackburn in 2001---so yeah every 9 years and this is the 9th year.

But saying that the Rangers don't have much recent history of drafting players out of the WHL--the last one before this was Ty Ronning in the last round of the draft. Not saying it won't be a WHL player but my guess is that early pick will be either a European or someone from US National program.......and who knows we might win the lottery.

Anyway apparently Elmer's scored a goal in 14 of his last 15 games.

Well, they’ve definitely beefed up their scouting of the league this year. So whether the pick comes from the WHL or not, they should be pretty well-versed.

But I feel like there are so many variables to consider.

The Rangers going the US route started back before that league had the level of attention it currently enjoys.

But the reality is there are a lot gaps in there because of not having a first round pick. Yes, K. Miller was a US program pick, but he was technically the first one we took that high in six years.

Kravtsov was the first Russian we took with a first rounder since 2007.

We took J. Miller and Skjei back to back in 2011 and 2012, but we also went to OHL three out of four years in 2005, 2006 and 2008.

We’ll never the route we would’ve gone from 2013-2016, but the assets we grabbed from Tampa were taken out of the WHL in 2016.

Truth be told, outside of not taking a first rounder from the Q, the Rangers really don’t have a pattern.

Since 2005, the first rounders they’ve had are pretty diverse.

3 OHL
2 Russia
2 Sweden
1 Czech
1 US High School
2 US Program
1 WHL

Plus, in the last 18 months they prospects they’ve acquired are a former OHL first rounder, and someone who would be a first rounder from the OHL in a post-expansion world, along with a WHL first rounder.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Cozens will rightfully be gone by 8.

chances are we might trade up 2 or 3 spots to make sure we get somebody we really want. Shouldn't cost us too much. Devils are lacking all kinds of depth, they could use some of our prospects.

 

[buchleafs7717]

Great speed good 2 way player as a guy who has seen him play every home game hes been here plus some road games hes a solid player. Yeah he plays with cozens but not everyone can play with star players leads WHL in short handed goals and has a decent shot. He is very streaky but even when not scoring helps out on PK and is good in own end. Real class act off the ice. From a Leafs fan here You guys are getting a decent asset.

 

[Calad]

Great speed good 2 way player as a guy who has seen him play every home game hes been here plus some road games hes a solid player. Yeah he plays with cozens but not everyone can play with star players leads WHL in short handed goals and has a decent shot. He is very streaky but even when not scoring helps out on PK and is good in own end. Real class act off the ice. From a Leafs fan here You guys are getting a decent asset.

appreciate the scouting report

 

[Beacon]

Last time the Rangers drafted a WHL player in the first round was Dylan McIlrath in 2010--before that it was Dan Blackburn in 2001---so yeah every 9 years and this is the 9th year.

In the last 25 years, we had 6 top-10 picks. Of them 4 were from the WHL and all went bust (Brendl, Lundmark, McIlrath and Blackburn, who was injured). The 5th and 5th top-10 picks (Malhotra and Montoya) were also wasted picks because they were marginal NHLers with no trade value. [This excludes Lias and Kravtsov since they are still very early in their careers and our expectations of Lias+Kravtsov are no different (maybe lower) than Brendl and Lundmark in 2000, so we can't say much yet.]

The only first rounder we got from the WHL who went on to have an NHL career was Jay More, and he was a 6/7 D with no trade value to speak of. The last player we drafted out of the WHL in any round who went on to have a career was 11 years ago - Dale Weise, a 4th liner. The only WHLer we ever drafted who went on to have a career where he had real trade value in his prime is Brandon Dubinsky.

Not saying it can't happen, the WHL has a better reputation than the QMJHL and maybe the OHL, but just amazing that Jay More is the greatest first rounder out of the WHL we ever had and only one draftee in history went on to be at least an average NHLer. Maybe something about our scouting, maybe just bad luck.

 

[Blue Blooded]

In the last 25 years, we had 6 top-10 picks. Of them 4 were from the WHL and all went bust (Brendl, Lundmark, McIlrath and Blackburn, who was injured). The 5th and 5th top-10 picks (Malhotra and Montoya) were also wasted picks because they were marginal NHLers with no trade value. [This excludes Lias and Kravtsov since they are still very early in their careers and our expectations of Lias+Kravtsov are no different (maybe lower) than Brendl and Lundmark in 2000, so we can't say much yet.]

The only first rounder we got from the WHL who went on to have an NHL career was Jay More, and he was a 6/7 D with no trade value to speak of. The last player we drafted out of the WHL in any round who went on to have a career was 11 years ago - Dale Weise, a 4th liner. The only WHLer we ever drafted who went on to have a career where he had real trade value in his prime is Brandon Dubinsky.

Not saying it can't happen, the WHL has a better reputation than the QMJHL and maybe the OHL, but just amazing that Jay More is the greatest first rounder out of the WHL we ever had and only one draftee in history went on to be at least an average NHLer. Maybe something about our scouting, maybe just bad luck.

In the end, the top-10 pick that brought the most value to the organization was Brendl - solely because we traded him while he still had high value.

 

[Ola]

Thank God, we found a replacement for Dawson Leedahl.

Justin Soryal -> Dawson Leedahl -> Jacob Elmer ?

 

[n8]

If we don't win the 3rd OA lotto pick or don't trade up to select Cozens, I'm sure we can get Turcotte or Newhook at the 7-9 range.
I would not underestimate the cost of trading up a few spots. re: Brendl, do you forget what it cost to acquire the Brendl pick? Sundstrom, Cloutier, a 1st, and a 3rd. Two young roster players the organization liked and a third to trade up 4 spots. or Sundstrom, Cloutier, Hlavac, Johnsson, 1st, 3rd, 3rd for Lindros. 2.5 years of Lindros. ugh, it's so painful thinking about the early century Rangers...

 

[pld459666]

I love this post.

Just got it

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

This guy will be a stud with Panarin and Karlsson.

 

[nyr2k2]

Justin Soryal -> Dawson Leedahl -> Jacob Elmer ?

f***, Soryal. Blast from the past. I brought up Tysen Dowzak the other day.

I actually liked Soryal for a minute.

 

[eco's bones]

Well, they’ve definitely beefed up their scouting of the league this year. So whether the pick comes from the WHL or not, they should be pretty well-versed.

But I feel like there are so many variables to consider.

The Rangers going the US route started back before that league had the level of attention it currently enjoys.

But the reality is there are a lot gaps in there because of not having a first round pick. Yes, K. Miller was a US program pick, but he was technically the first one we took that high in six years.

Kravtsov was the first Russian we took with a first rounder since 2007.

We took J. Miller and Skjei back to back in 2011 and 2012, but we also went to OHL three out of four years in 2005, 2006 and 2008.

We’ll never the route we would’ve gone from 2013-2016, but the assets we grabbed from Tampa were taken out of the WHL in 2016.

Truth be told, outside of not taking a first rounder from the Q, the Rangers really don’t have a pattern.

Since 2005, the first rounders they’ve had are pretty diverse.

3 OHL
2 Russia
2 Sweden
1 Czech
1 US High School
2 US Program
1 WHL

Plus, in the last 18 months they prospects they’ve acquired are a former OHL first rounder, and someone who would be a first rounder from the OHL in a post-expansion world, along with a WHL first rounder.

Things will also depend exactly where our pick is and dependent on which players have been taken by that time.

I see the Rangers somewhere between 7 and 12. 12 might seem pretty low but we can go lower dependent on how the lottery works out. In that 7-12 range--it looks more like WHL or USNTDP forwards will be among the best players available. Still the Rangers could win the lottery too.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Not to be confused with Jeff Ulmer.

Or Layne.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Guess we know who they were scouting a few weeks ago, and it wasn't Cozens or Dach. Turcotte to NYR confirmed.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Mugless]

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

This guy will be a stud with Panarin and Karlsson and Hayes and Zucc.

Fixed it for you.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Fixed it for you.

They’re all going to Dallas!!!

 

[LORDE]

Don’t see the issue here even if the guy turns out to be a total Fud

(Shhhhhh I’m hunting wabbits)

 

[will1066]

Heard he was a real glue guy.

I actually was looking for the first post to do this. Nicely done.

 

[bernmeister]

thanks op

FREE ASSET FTW!

nice to see we may be getting a freebie.

He seems to show scoring, which is better than him not showing us anything at all, but at this pt we have to wait and see when he gets 'here' [presum Traverse or other tryout opportunity, see what we got, how he meshes, where we place him to start].

 

[offdacrossbar]

fun fact: cozens and elmers headcoach at lethbridge is ex ranger kelly kisios son brent kisio.

if dylan cozens is there when we pick im feeling thats our guy.

the overall package that cozens has is too good to pass up.

potential 1C skill set but can also move to the edge into a more primary scoring role.