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Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 10.17.18) *Part II*

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Made a Little Twitter thread on Tarmo Reunanens first 12 games this season.


(open the tweet to see the full thread wink)

TL;DR He's playing well.
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
Made a Little Twitter thread on Tarmo Reunanens first 12 games this season.


(open the tweet to see the full thread wink)

TL;DR He's playing well.
Click to expand...


Damn, 92.2 is super low. Does that mean his +/- (which is a stupid stat) can be expected to normalize and probably his production increase?
 
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Ola said:
Many want to be ‘right’ and be able to say I told you so and if they just copy what a few one man shows are predicting — supposedly the consensus —, and moving 1 or 2 names around to put their stamp on it, they will never be right about any off the board pick.

In this context I like reading someone like @ManUtdTobbe rankings more, which are very much his own, because that way I get info from his unique viewpoint and can weight it against my own and other first hand sources.

The consensus stuff just really suck. Look at Bode Wilde, non of these sources even remotely had him as low as he went. So many had Akil Thomas so high. One thing to really be wrong about something, but seeking safety in what someone else is predicting is just a default approach.
Click to expand...

Similarly, we should mindful of people who go off the board and end up bring wrong a lot.

Thinking far outside the box can be admirable, and occasionally being right when no one saw it coming is eye-catching, but it can also mask a low batting average.

Through the years, there’s been no shortage of people who can produce wild takes. But one of the reasons they come and go is that people usually catch on that those are the exceptions and not the rule. Just generally speaking, not directed at anyone in particular.

In the case of Bode Wilde, he kind of had the opposite second half and lead up to the draft than Miller experienced.
 
Edge said:
Similarly, we should mindful of people who go off the board and end up bring wrong a lot.

Thinking far outside the box can be admirable, and occasionally being right when no one saw it coming is eye-catching, but it can also mask a low batting average.

Through the years, there’s been no shortage of people who can produce wild takes. But one of the reasons they come and go is that people usually catch on that those are the exceptions and not the rule. Just generally speaking, not directed at anyone in particular.

In the case of Bode Wilde, he kind of had the opposite second half and lead up to the draft than Miller experienced.
Click to expand...

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, I think it is. Some people will keep bringing up the 2 or 3 guys they were right about and conveniently leave out the other wild takes they had that never really ended up working out. As I said before, the "I had him at 19" type comments on the main boards are just cringe-worthy.
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, I think it is. Some people will keep bringing up the 2 or 3 guys they were right about and conveniently leave out the other wild takes they had that never really ended up working out. As I said before, the "I had him at 19" type comments on the main boards are just cringe-worthy.
Click to expand...

The funny thing is what we do on here is very similar to what an actual scouting department does.

Scouts debate the merits of guys they like, and there’s some very heated discussions.

Personally, I’m less interested in predicting where a guy goes, than I am in predicting value and return on investment.

It’s why I don’t really do mock drafts. The reality is that I am even somewhat hesitant to do “lists” as well. There’s many factors that don’t necessarily show up when simply looks at a list.

For example, the difference between 3 and 5 can be an ocean. The difference between 5 and 12 could be relatively minor.

Rankings can also be deceptive because you can have a prospect who had the potential to be one or the best players in the draft, but have question marks that make him harder to rank higher than other guys. It doesn’t inherently mean he isn’t a good option, it just means he’s a different prospect.

But predicting drafts is a major challenge. Just one variable can change everything.

Last year, reports were the Rangers were very high on the American kids — Wahlstrom, Tkachuk and Farabee. Those players were seen as being in their top 5 or 6. The one variable? Kravtsov. There wasn’t as good of a read on how high the Rangers had him. That changes everything.

In talking to reports around the league, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of teams that had Hayton as high as Arizona. But it only takes one team to change the landscape.

Similarly, Zadina arena to have been in a lot of top 4s. But the three ahead of him was different and he dropped a little.

It can be so incredibly difficult to account for all the moving parts.
 
Edge- With Wilde, it’s just so digital with these defensemen. Either they can stay with the pace and they become immensely valuable or they can’t and nobody wants anything to do with them, often they get a bigger contract early but is just an anchor.

Another type I am struggling to pin down is the Barrett Heiston center types.

It will also be interesting to see how much room there really is for the smaller Ds in the future in this league. I think it’s as important as ever to clear the crease and be someone that it hurts to play against. The bigger forwards are really struggling in general, but I am not at all sure on that it’s good to have 3 thinner Ds on a blueline around 5’11-6’1...
 
Virta isn't much of a surprise for me

He always had really strong underlying numbers playing in Finland. Not a shock he is excelling in the KHL.

I've seen people make the comparison of him to Arvidsson, which would be an amazing find for us if he turns into even half of that
 
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It's streaming and I have some free time, so I'm going to catch the last couple of periods. Hopefully he is getting used as a top6 guy this game; this'll be the first time I've seen him live.
 
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