I like Lias and Howden (who I'm suprised isn't getting more consideration), but went with K'Andre:
1) Here are the top U19 NCAA Defenseman by PPG in the last 15 years (excluding guys still in the NCAA):
- Werenski (1 ppg)
- Wiercioch (0.97 ppg)
- K'andre (0.94 ppg)
- Justin Faulk (0.85 ppg)
- Jack Johnson (0.84 ppg)
- Trouba (0.78 ppg)
- Mike Matheson (0.69 ppg, nice)
- Casey Fitzgerland (0.69 ppg, nice)
- McAvoy (0.68 ppg)
Basically everyone on the list that can play defense turned into a top pairing defenseman and K'Andre can play defense.
2) K'Andre has the physical ability to be a Norris-level defenseman. I don't think there are 5 defensemen in the NHL who have more natural physical ability than he does.
3) K'Andre is putting up that level of production despite being relatively new to the position. His learning curve is incredibly steep and he's dramatically exceeding expectations this year.
4) Every time I've seen advanced stats on him, they indicate that, despite some rawness, he's already an elite player for his age / league
When you combine his physical ability with what's he's already producing and the rate at which he is learning his position...If you have one of the most physically talented players in the NHL, who's already producing at a rate that compares to star NHL'ers, and he has great work ethic and is lapping other players in development, over time you'd think there's a decent chance you're going to end up with an star NHL player.
I think he involves more projection than Kravtsov or Chytil, but his upside is just as high (if not higher), he seems to be tracking toward the high end of that projection, and if he just ends up being a 6'4" defenseman with a hard shot who skates incredibly well and uses his reach effectively, it's not like that's a bad NHL player.
Think of it this way - If you come back and review this list in 5 years, who are you most likely to regret not voting for?
Add Keane. Has scored at a higher rates at the same ages while getting more recognition for his defensive play than Hajek. His skating ability and physical toughness indicate he's got a pretty high ceiling.
