BCHL is a beer league? Ok buddy. Is the USHL a beer league? It may not mean as much as an OHL or NCAA season but "beer league" is ridiculous hyperbole.
It's not a beer league, but it's a very low end league. Let's put it this way. Your average BCHL team wouldn't stand a chance against an ECHL team. In fact, it would lose 9 times out of 10 against CHL teams.
Most BCHLers, if they will have any kind of a career, will go on to play in either the Federal League (Brooklyn Aviators) or the Southern Professional League. This is the level of hockey they are playing. The average BCHL team playing against the Brooklyn Aviators would be an even money bet in Vegas, so let's not pretend that scoring 80 points in 60 games there is a huge accomplishment.
Look if point rankings and line rankings are your sole basis for evaluating prospects there is nothing to discuss.
This is a strawman argument. Every time a point is brought up against a prospect, I hear, "if this is the only thing to evaluate, then there is nothing to discuss." Nobody is saying it's the only thing, but it's one of the things we can look at. He was a second liner in the BCHL. He's a 4th liner in the CCHA. The fact that he can't beat out players with no
AHL future is troublesome.
It's funny how nobody thinks that it's unimportant that Lindberg and Fast are first liners, but when a kid stumbles, suddenly where he plays is irrelevant.
Let's hear your algorithm for predicting players so that we can just get a definitive list and call it a day.
Strawman argument again. What you are saying is that if something isn't 100% predictive, it means that it has ZERO value. This is obviously false.
How about how Jeff Jackson runs the most defensive system in the NCAA?
Hrivik also played in the most defensive system in the QMJHL, but while that lowered his overall stats, he was still a first liner on the team, and scored more than lesser players on his team. Foggy is playing on the 4th line as a 19 year old.
As for the team being defensive-minded, it didn't stop Robbie Russo, same age as Foggy, from scoring over a point a game as a
defenseman. Six players have more than 0.7 points per game on that team. Not terrible.
There is no chance Nieves would have been a top-6 center on a defensive team over Anders Lee and TJ Tynan.
If a player can play, coaches will find a spot for him. He can be a third liner who plays on the PP and moves up to the top-6 when someone is injured or struggling or the coach just wants to juggle the lines. Either way, he plays.
Nieves walked into a great developmental situation on a terrible team. It's comparing apples to oranges.
Players make their own situation good or bad. You can argue that walking into a terrible team isn't "great" at all. Your linemates aren't great, you are constantly bummed out from losing, there's never-ending finger-pointing as to who's responsible for the losing.
Let me tell you this:
U of Michigan is much, much better than the Penticton Vees. If Foggy couldn't be an above average player on the Vees, what would possess you to believe he could match Nieves's performance as a first liner in Michigan?
Foggy had his chance to walk onto a team with low-level competition, and he was only a middling player on that team.
I would never say that Fogarty is likely to reach his top-end potential, which is a 50pt defensive forward, but it's there.
This is an argument based on what exactly? What is the basis for saying it? What I wrote, good or bad, was at least a reason for why I think what I think. What is your reason for saying this? You read a scouting report that said he was a good skater for his size? Who cares! These reports are comparing him to other mid-round picks, most of whom will wind up career ECHLers. There's absolutely nothing to suggest he has 50-point potential.
He was one of the most skilled players I have seen come through MN HS hockey in recent years, though extremely unrefined. The reason to see his potential is called using your eyes instead of pure statistics. He's a 3-4 year college player.
Ok, and how many times have you used your eyes in personally evaluating Foggy? Let me ask you this: has his coach in both ND and in Penticton seen him more than you did? And they've concluded that he belongs on the lines below those of future AHLers. What does that tell you?
