OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona

[DJ Spinoza]

I like what I've seen from Musgrove so far. Walked the first guy and then gave up a loud double to Judge that Bostick probably misplayed a bit, but then he's piled up 5 Ks through two innings so far. Moving the ball around quite a bit, hitters look confused, command is pretty impressive for a first bit of action. His fastball is sitting aroun 92 or 93, touching 94 sometimes, while he has the curve as low as 80 with good placement, and some other pitches in the mid-80s. I know he has a pretty diverse repetoire, and I can't quite get a handle on all of it so far, though I'm partially distracted in watching this.

I imagine he'll have another inning in him, but consider the hype machine to be starting to get in motion.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Pitching. Not saying that is the result the regular season has, but it is a barometer of the pitching situation. You might not want to believe this, but our pitching is not very awesome. Our offense, on the other hand might not be as bad as I thought originally.

Our rotation probably wont be any good. That box full-o-spring stats, has nothing to do with why.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Musgrove ends up going 2 2/3rds - got into long counts with Wade and Judge and walked both, but overall a good first impression to me. I can't remember from his numbers/writeups I read, but I would imagine that some keys for him are going to be the control and the times through the order. He has quite a bit of movement on his pitches and likes to move the ball around a lot. The fastball command was not sharp at all times, with him missing outside the zone pretty badly a handful of times, but that's kind of what you expect this early. He had a couple good curveballs and changeups.

I agree that the Pirates rotation likely won't be that good, but I think we'll have to see. With repeat kind of years out of Kuhl and Williams, I think the group overall has a good chance to be average, but that's not guaranteed, and Nova could continue trending downward. I imagine that a key issue is going to be times through the orer for everyone, and I hope that this might be something they'll consider in terms of how Brault and Glasnow are deployed, assumng they make it as expected. If both do well in their roles, and in general the bullpen excels, then I think the overall pitching situation might turn out ok. But like just about everythng else, it's littered with ifs.

A minor league journeyman/prospect came in to finish out Musgrove's inning, had to face Stanton, hit him, then gave up a HR to Sanchez. Case in point relative to spring training statistics.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Some more relatively meaningless flybys: Rivero's stat line probably speaks for itself, but he was very wild and ineffective today - maybe minor cause for concern. Crick went two innings and looked better than I had seen him before. He still doesn't seem to have as much fastball control as you'd want, but his curveball looked really good consistently today. He got Stanton to ground into a double play at the end of his appearance. And finally, Siegrist finishes a 1-2-3 inning just now, very sharp. The changeup is a surefire out pitch, and he has the velocity to compliment it with the fastball, as well as the control. He'll be more than useful as a late inning and situational option.

Brentz still worked some counts, while Osuna launched a home run with a really nice swing. Still, I guess the upside play for Osuna down the line is as multi-position depth, so between needing reps for that and Brentz being out of options, I'd be surprised if Osuna starts with the team.

I guess things could change, but I've kept a fairly close eye on these perimeter spots, and I feel pretty confident with my 25-man guess. The only question left in my mind is who may initially replace Musgrove. Maybe they'll see if they can keep Milbraith, but it doesn't seem like that spot will be available for too long. Probably more of an emergency arm position for a week.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Some more relatively meaningless flybys: Rivero's stat line probably speaks for itself, but he was very wild and ineffective today - maybe minor cause for concern. Crick went two innings and looked better than I had seen him before. He still doesn't seem to have as much fastball control as you'd want, but his curveball looked really good consistently today. He got Stanton to ground into a double play at the end of his appearance. And finally, Siegrist finishes a 1-2-3 inning just now, very sharp. The changeup is a surefire out pitch, and he has the velocity to compliment it with the fastball, as well as the control. He'll be more than useful as a late inning and situational option.

Brentz still worked some counts, while Osuna launched a home run with a really nice swing. Still, I guess the upside play for Osuna down the line is as multi-position depth, so between needing reps for that and Brentz being out of options, I'd be surprised if Osuna starts with the team.

I guess things could change, but I've kept a fairly close eye on these perimeter spots, and I feel pretty confident with my 25-man guess. The only question left in my mind is who may initially replace Musgrove. Maybe they'll see if they can keep Milbraith, but it doesn't seem like that spot will be available for too long. Probably more of an emergency arm position for a week.

As far as roster spots

Osuna vs Brentz for the last bench job with Moroff and Luplow as outside shots
2 of Brault/Siegrist/Smoker with Smoker probably being optioned
Crick vs Jones with a heavy lean to Crick

That sound about right to you?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think so - wasn't aware Smoker could be optioned, and had forgotten about Jones. Siegrist has looked too good and has stuff that plays so perfectly off all the hard-throwing righties, so he seems like a no brainer, and I think they must see things in Crick that they like enough that he's probably had an inside track. I liked what I saw out of him yesterday, and I think he'll have the space to be able to get his bearings outside of a pretty high leverage role. It might be foolish to count on Feliz to directly excel in a high leverage situation, but that seems like the most likely situation, with Kontos and Siegrist also being in the mix depending on the situation. Ideally Hurdle will also be willing to go to Rivero in the 7th or 8th inning when the situation calls for it, but ideally there'd be a lot of things different with this team.

I think the performances overall have been pretty encouraging this spring. Would like to see Kuhl more sharp with missing bats, and a bit of a power surge out of Moran, who has mostly hit well but is really going to need the power part of his game to show up, I think. This is my latest stab at the opening day lineup based on kind of a combination of what I think Hurdle will do and how I think players can be deployed well:

Harrison
Polanco
Marte
Bell
Dickerson
Cervelli
Moran
Mercer
Pitcher

No perfect way to slice it, and Marte at #3 may be a very poor decision, but for better or worse, Harrison's going to bring speed and aggressiveness, and I don't see him in the #2 or #3 spot unless he is on a power tear.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, plenty to feel positive about from today's game. Really strong reports about Taillon, who threw what seems like an efficient 5 innings only blemished by a solo shot, and the lineup raked and was made up of all the starters except Cervelli. Sample size, competition, of course, but more than anything, nice to see a bunch of components all in the lineup together and doing well.

Looks like Smoker ran into some trouble trying to go multi-inning. I think he was already basically a depth guy with Siegrist starting out well, but we're probably only really down to a decision about the last bench spot, and I feel pretty good about predicting Brentz. These things are fraught with all sorts of vague assumptions, though, so you can't really be sure, especially for the bullpen arms.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I have to say, I really like the kinds of swings I see from Osuna. As far as a RH option off the bench, he might have more upside than Brentz, even if his raw HR power isn't quite the same. It just seems like he often connects with really hard contact.

I guess it still makes sense for him to get reps at 3B in AAA, and it's not like he's going to waste away with better playing time, so it still might make sense to carry Brentz initially and see how it goes. Osuna could be more of a longer-term guy in the sense that he will basically replace Freese. But I think just as a pure RH bat on the bench, he might have a bit more upside than Brentz.

Kuhl is back on the mound today and looks a bit better than he did last time out, though his velocity is not overwhelming anybody. He's putting some work in on the changeup today, and the slider/curve pitches are flashing plus at times. Not getting a ton of swings and misses, but 0 BBs and 2 Ks through 4 solid innings, only 3 hits, mostly weak contact, around 55 pitches or so.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm gonna jump on board the 4-straight-posts-in-a-row train to say that Mitch Keller had a two inning stint in one of the split squad games today, and looked phenomenal. He has an easy 96mph fastball with excellent command.

Glasnow's efficiency wasn't amazing today, but I watched his innings and he was impressive in terms of just looking different, much more like he was in control. He was throwing a great fastball with plus movement and flashed plus command at some times, and was off the mark at others, but never so much so that he got into the kind of trouble he sometimes has. He seemed to be throwing mostly 4-seamers, some 2-seamers, and would throw a change at times too. He was using the curveball especially well as an out pitch. When he has the fastball working, he has more than enough control on the curveball to make it a devastating option in the relief role that he'll be in.

I'm more optimistic after seeing him today, although I do think the bullpen role may work out a little dicey. He's going to be at his best when he is starting an inning clean and just working quickly, not getting caught up in a complex situation, or if he is, just staying with a quick rhythm. I can just foresee trouble if he is coming into a game with the lead, and some fluky stuff happens, or he walks a guy. Ideally, he'll gain some footing by being used when we are trailing in a game, for example, or maybe he comes into a game in the middle of the sixth inning when a starter is at their pitch count or something, but the bases are clear.

In short, it will be interesting to see how Hurdle deploys him, and what the long run is. I think he's flashing enough stuff that a starting spot would be more viable of an option if it were there. But it's really not, and I don't see one opening up unless there's an injury. It's even more interesting with Keller now on the horizon, at the very least. I think he will get a full minor league system where he can refine secondary stuff, but it's not out of the question that he'd be ready in the mix by August or so. The long-term plan with Glasnow absolutely should be to turn him loose as a starter. He can rebrand as a full-time backend option at any point, and so the bullpen service should be about getting reps, outs, and showing command at the MLB level.

 

[WickedWrister]

Price v. Musgrove this afternoon, and the Sox look to have a full lineup. I don't gamble on exhibition baseball but my book has the 2.5 run spread at +140... very tempting

1. Mookie Betts, RF
2. Andrew Benintendi, CF
3. Hanley Ramirez, DH
4. J.D. Martinez, LF
5. Mitch Moreland, 1B
6. Eduardo Nunez, 2B
7. Rafael Devers, 3B
8. Christian Vazquez, C
9. Brock Holt, SS

SP: Price, LHP

 

[WickedWrister]

That outfield

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Interesting that Luplow is sticking around despite the cuts to all the other possible bench players. Still have to assume that it's down to Brentz and Osuna, but maybe Luplow is sticking around as a reward or something.

Huntington also suggested they might keep 12 position players and 13 pitchers to start the season, but that would mean jettisoning Brentz. I'm not really sure any of the fringe bullpen pitchers have done well enough to force the team to hold them, unless they are just dead-set on keeping Milbraith.

Musgrove got a late start, but he's certainly had some immediate tests, facing the full strength Yankees lineup and now today. Curious to see how he does; his mix of pitches kept the Yankees pretty off balance, and he threw a lot of them with command. I'm still not sure which parts of his arsenal can be relied on to really overwhelm, which has me thinking we'll see some ups and downs with him. He'll dominate if he has all the pitches working and generally dictates the patterns, but if one or two of the pitches are off, I could see the stuff being not quite good enough to stay consistent.

 

[Return of the Paek]

Interesting that Luplow is sticking around despite the cuts to all the other possible bench players. Still have to assume that it's down to Brentz and Osuna, but maybe Luplow is sticking around as a reward or something.

Huntington also suggested they might keep 12 position players and 13 pitchers to start the season, but that would mean jettisoning Brentz. I'm not really sure any of the fringe bullpen pitchers have done well enough to force the team to hold them, unless they are just dead-set on keeping Milbraith.

Musgrove got a late start, but he's certainly had some immediate tests, facing the full strength Yankees lineup and now today. Curious to see how he does; his mix of pitches kept the Yankees pretty off balance, and he threw a lot of them with command. I'm still not sure which parts of his arsenal can be relied on to really overwhelm, which has me thinking we'll see some ups and downs with him. He'll dominate if he has all the pitches working and generally dictates the patterns, but if one or two of the pitches are off, I could see the stuff being not quite good enough to stay consistent.

I might be out of the loop and I realize he isn't very good defensively (even though he has a strong arm), but why isn't Osuna a lock to make this roster? His bat is solid and he has power.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Fangraphs is doing positional rundowns of teams at each position. Here's 1B, where the average Pirate fan would think the Pirates would be somewhere in the top half.

 

[pistolpete11]

I might be out of the loop and I realize he isn't very good defensively (even though he has a strong arm), but why isn't Osuna a lock to make this roster? His bat is solid and he has power.

And he has some versatility being able to play 1B, RF, and now working on 3B.

I haven't been paying attention to ST at all, but Glasnow in the pen is the only thing that makes sense to me. I understand your point about coming in with guys on base DJ, but I think it's time for him to learn how to get MLB hitters out. He's not gaining anything from dominating AAA anymore. He can be the long relief guy in the pen getting mop up duty and/or whenever there is a possibility to start an inning clean. If he does well, start giving him more high leverage situations and hopefully eventually consider moving him into the rotation. The Cards have done that with several pitchers and it worked out for them.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And he has some versatility being able to play 1B, RF, and now working on 3B.

I haven't been paying attention to ST at all, but Glasnow in the pen is the only thing that makes sense to me. I understand your point about coming in with guys on base DJ, but I think it's time for him to learn how to get MLB hitters out. He's not gaining anything from dominating AAA anymore. He can be the long relief guy in the pen getting mop up duty and/or whenever there is a possibility to start an inning clean. If he does well, start giving him more high leverage situations and hopefully eventually consider moving him into the rotation. The Cards have done that with several pitchers and it worked out for them.

As far as Osuna goes, I think the main reason he isn't a lock is that he has options and Brentz doesn't. My guess is that which one makes the team comes down to a combination of what they think Brentz would do off the bench vs. the reps that they want Osuna to get at 3B. Looking at it with a long view, Osuna could be primed as Freese's replacement who can also pinch hit in the OF on occasion, and so it's probably better for him to get consistent reps for now. If Brentz makes it and can't do much, then you can easily just bring Osuna up and give him his at-bats, and the same is true if you have an injury to Freese or even Moran, etc. On the other hand, if the assessment is that Brentz won't even really bring anything, then there's no point in going north with him. My thinking is why not for at least 4-6 weeks.

With Glasnow, I agree totally. There's no point at all in having him in AAA, and there's no spot in the rotation for him. I think your trajectory is ideal for him, and we just have to see what he does with it.

Musgrove got tagged for 3 runs in the second inning just now, although it sounded like the whole thing got started with a fly ball that Rodriguez couldn't get to. Gave up the HR to Devers. Can't really tell too much what is happening from the radio, but hopefully his final spring training appearance will be in a televised game.

I also imagine that today or maybe tomorrow will be the last time we'll see this kind of lineup. You gotta think Hurdle will want to test a few combinations, and generally get the whole crew in there for almost a week's worth of games to start off. How well the offense is clicking is probably a good indication of how successful we'll be in the opening series, with it's barnburning opening matchup of Nova vs. Zimmerman.

 

[Richard]

This is a 90-100 loss club. Anyone wanna bet vcash? This season has trainwreck written all over it.

 

[WickedWrister]

This is a 90-100 loss club. Anyone wanna bet vcash? This season has trainwreck written all over it.

88 losses. I'll bet vcash

 

[Richard]

88 losses. I'll bet vcash

Taken.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Siegrist gets lit up - not a great day for the pitching.

I have no idea what vcash is, but there's no chance this team will lose 100 games.

 

[AverageJoeFan]

This is a 90-100 loss club. Anyone wanna bet vcash? This season has trainwreck written all over it.

62 wins is a bit low. 72 wins...perhaps. My goal for them is 78.

 

[WickedWrister]

I have some $ on the over 74 regular season wins for the Pirates at my book.

Boxscore watching Musgrove and Siegrist got rocked

4IP 8 H 6 ER for Musgrove...

 

[Brandinho]

I have some $ on the over 74 regular season wins for the Pirates at my book.

Boxscore watching Musgrove and Siegrist got rocked

4IP 8 H 6 ER for Musgrove...

What line did you get on that? Given the Pirates' scatterbrained strategy of trying to compete even when they'd probably be better off doing a full rebuild, I think it's a reasonable bet.

 

[WickedWrister]

What line did you get on that? Given the Pirates' scatterbrained strategy of trying to compete even when they'd probably be better off doing a full rebuild, I think it's a reasonable bet.

STRAIGHT BET
[88143] TOTAL o74+105
(PIRATES RSW vrs PIRATES RSW)

Put $50 on it because why not. Funnily enough the line moved to 73.5 wins since I placed the bet a month ago. Vegas must not like our spring training results

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Williams and Kuhl put up two relatively strong outings now that they are closer to 100 pitches. I didn't see Williams yesterday, but Kuhl had a lot of good stuff working for him today. He's still got the mid/upper 90s heat, and especially when his curveball is connecting, it's a pretty dynamic combination. The slider, curveball, and changeup pitches all seem like they still need a bit more refining, so I have the sense with him that we'll see sometimes where he really flashes excellence, and other times where he continues to have growing pains. Not really a bold prediction, I realize, but I will say that the makeup of pitches is there that he could really look good if he figures it all out for any length of time.

They line up to pitch in that order, so you have to imagine that they'll pitch the final two spring games next Monday and Tuesday, and be in line to follow Nova in the Detroit series. Rotation looks like it will break down like this:

Detroit - Nova
Detroit - Williams
Detroit - Kuhl
Minnesota - Taillon
Minnesota - Nova
Cincinnati - Williams
Cincinnati - Kuhl
Cincinnati - Musgrove
Cincinnati - Taillon

Too early for this kind of nonsense yet, but ideally the offense will be clicking early on and allow for a strong start over these games. There's three games against the Cubs on the road after this, but the April and May schedule really isn't that bad, and we all know that this team can hardly afford to give away any games in the early going.

I had the broadcast on earlier, and Brown was saying something about having Marte hit sixth, which is pretty bizarre and I guess a product of him thinking Frazier would be starting or something. I forgot that The Fort had been hired by AT&T, and he was spitting off even more homeristic ideas than Brown, such as Mercer being primed to launch a bunch of HRs.