OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[Goalie_Bob]

What would it take to get him to sign on for 10 years in the off season?

I’d say 300mil because they would be buying out five FA years.

They should do it but it is just so out of character for them.

 

[td_ice]

I’d say 300mil because they would be buying out five FA years.

They should do it but it is just so out of character for them.

That would be my guess as well. (But I have no idea.)

 

[Empoleon8771]

On a 10 year deal for Skenes, I think $250 million would be the absolute max. That has him making $50 million in his 2 pre-arb and 3 arb years and $40 million a year in his 5 UFA years, both of which seem like high estimates but are reasonable enough. That seems like roughly what he'd be earning in a best case scenario over that window, and I would certainly hope that signing him 10 games into his professional career would decrease that number as well.

I think Bobby Witt is the obvious guy to look at as a comparable to Skenes, even though they play different positions. Witt's deal ended up being signed after he had 2 full MLB seasons and broke up into:

-Signing bonus: $7.77 million
-Pre-arb years: 1 year at $2 million
-Arb years: 1 year at $7 million, 1 year at $13 million and 1 year at $19 million
-UFA years: 1 year at $30 million, 6 years at $35 million

Assuming the same yearly values, a 10 year Skenes deal that starts next year would be 10 years and $220.77 million. Which honestly looks pretty reasonable to me, I was thinking he'd fall in the $200 million to $225 million range on that term. With my estimate of him getting $250 million over that window if he wouldn't get signed, I think 10 years and $225 million would be my bet for what would get a deal done.

 

[Ulf5]

I really haven't paid a lot of attention to baseball since 2007.

...since "the Slide" lol.

 

[ChaosAgent]

On a 10 year deal for Skenes, I think $250 million would be the absolute max. That has him making $50 million in his 2 pre-arb and 3 arb years and $40 million a year in his 5 UFA years, both of which seem like high estimates but are reasonable enough. That seems like roughly what he'd be earning in a best case scenario over that window, and I would certainly hope that signing him 10 games into his professional career would decrease that number as well.

I think Bobby Witt is the obvious guy to look at as a comparable to Skenes, even though they play different positions. Witt's deal ended up being signed after he had 2 full MLB seasons and broke up into:

-Signing bonus: $7.77 million
-Pre-arb years: 1 year at $2 million
-Arb years: 1 year at $7 million, 1 year at $13 million and 1 year at $19 million
-UFA years: 1 year at $30 million, 6 years at $35 million

Assuming the same yearly values, a 10 year Skenes deal that starts next year would be 10 years and $220.77 million. Which honestly looks pretty reasonable to me, I was thinking he'd fall in the $200 million to $225 million range on that term. With my estimate of him getting $250 million over that window if he wouldn't get signed, I think 10 years and $225 million would be my bet for what would get a deal done.

I think we just knock 2 years and $80M off of that. As we discussed I think he would be smart to sign for 7-8 years for somewhere in the $130-$140M range, then hit free agency at age 30 to get his massive contract.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think we just knock 2 years and $80M off of that. As we discussed I think he would be smart to sign for 7-8 years for somewhere in the $130-$140M range, then hit free agency at age 30 to get his massive contract.

Yeah it would either be that or an opt-out with a longer deal after that window.

Structuring it the same as the Witt deal, I think it would be 12 years and $300 million with a player opt-out after 7 years and $125 million or something like that. The alternate would just be 8 years and $160 million, which I'd also be pretty fine with.

I don't think the $300 million extension is reasonable to expect out of the Pirates, but if they gave Reynolds $100 million, I feel like a $120 million to $140 million deal wouldn't be out of the question for Skenes. I think 8 years and $160 million is the absolute maximum I could see them doing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I also think it's totally possible that we're overestimating how much Skenes would realistically be earning over his career, just because Skenes has the risk of regressing into being just a "great" pitcher rather than a "generational" pitcher. Look at Strasburg, he started his career with a 2.54 ERA (157 ERA+) and 1.87 FIP in 17 starts to begin his career (split between 2010 and 2011), but he settled into more of a "great" starter with a 3.21 ERA (128 ERA+) and 3.03 FIP after that from 2012-2019.

Why I mention that is that Strasburg only got $22 million in his 3 arb years and then signed for $25 million a year as a UFA in 2017. Even if you want to bump it up a bit for contracts being higher now than they were 7-10 years ago, Skenes is still probably looking at more like the $150 million to $180 million range on a 10 year deal if he ends up being Strasburg 2.0. That actually makes me understand why they'd want to hesitate a bit with extending Skenes, the difference between him being DeGrom 2.0 or Strasburg 2.0 is worth a good $50 million over the length of that deal.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah it would either be that or an opt-out with a longer deal after that window.

Structuring it the same as the Witt deal, I think it would be 12 years and $300 million with a player opt-out after 7 years and $125 million or something like that. The alternate would just be 8 years and $160 million, which I'd also be pretty fine with.

I don't think the $300 million extension is reasonable to expect out of the Pirates, but if they gave Reynolds $100 million, I feel like a $120 million to $140 million deal wouldn't be out of the question for Skenes. I think 8 years and $160 million is the absolute maximum I could see them doing.

The thing that maybe makes it possible is when Nutting is negotiating with the city on a new lease and ballpark improvements. It would be a terrible look to let Skenes go at that point.

If Skenes is prioritizing getting to FA as soon as humanly possible (and winning ROY of course helps that), then there isn't a deal to be made. If he is willing to give up 2+ free agent years - which at this point we should take the ROY or 2nd place as a foregone conclusion - Nutting and Cherington need to find a way to get this done.

As you say, a player option is possible. Front-loading the deal is possible, and they did it with Hayes.

I also don't see another extension candidate this year. Not to get into an Oneil Cruz p...ing match but he is just not someone I want to hand $100M to. He needs to be motivated.
Jones has been awesome but the injury risk is tremendous given the velocity vs. the frame. Gonzales has cooled off so there isn't much urgency there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Thinking on it more, my offer to Skenes would be 13 years and $325 million with a mutual opt-out after year 8. Splits into 8 years and $150 million before the opt-out (5 pre-arb and arb years for $45 million, 3 UFA years at $35 million a year) and 5 years and $175 million after the opt-out (5 UFA years at $35 million a year). It’s basically the same as Skenes going through arbitration and then signing an 8 year, $280 million UFA deal.

I’d make the option mutual so both sides can opt out midway through. It gives both the Pirates a chance to get out of the $175 million left on the deal if it goes badly (which is a risk of any pitching deal), but also lets Skenes cash out in UFA at a prime age if he can get better than the 5 years at $35 million a year left on the deal.

 

[OnMyOwn]

I get the feeling Skenes is also a competitor, so maybe putting in a little bit of effort with fielding a better team would entice him to give up some years.

Realistically we have about 5 years to make a run, IMO. Nutting should be investing a bunch right now until then to cash in on what’s here.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Witt's deal is a good benchmark I think, but also a bit tricky in that it might assume waiting another year and a half at least, and then who knows what will be going on.

I think there's some logic on Skenes' side to the guaranteed money + sacrifice of a year or two of free agency, but even though that would be something of a relief, it's still not that different from kicking the can on a "we have to trade him to get value" a few years further.

The possibility of a mutual opt-out that Emp just raised is also a good idea, I think. I don't have much of an eye for this, but there could be a long-term MLB financials consideration where top-end salaries taper off slightly. So in that respect, if Skenes can lock in both guaranteed money through his team control years and an agreeable big payday beyond that, there might be enough incentive there.

In any case, I was and to some extent remain pretty defeated about the current team, but I see no other choice as a fan than rooting for us to aggressively attempt to add to the team this year and make a run. With pitching especially, you have no guarantees about next year. I don't think we should necessarily blow up the farm system, but if there's a deal to be made for Jazz Chisholm, Luis Robert or even Taylor Ward, then I'm not wincing about giving up certain prospects (though I would make a caveat for Chandler, where I'd only send him for Robert and even then would not be thrilled lol).

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

It's pretty delusional to say this, but we should be backing up a Brinks truck to Skenes' place and telling him to name his price.

He is a phenom who is already scheduled viewing and a gate draw that we have not seen before in Pittsburgh. I don't think that's an exaggeration. I don't think there's really any precedent for young pitchers getting big contracts, and there's certainly plenty of time to speculate about how specifics could work, but after tonight, there's no doubt in my mind at all.

He's going to get even better, but he is the franchise. There's no excuse for a team that has almost no payroll commitments to speak of at all. Otherwise, and I hate bringing this up on such a positive night, but otherwise the reality is very brutal. If you look at him like Cole and so many others who have come before him, then what it adds up to is that he has 3 more years as a Pirate after this one.

If there's no extension, that's it. That's why it's worth being livid with how this front office prepared for this season. I almost can't believe I'm saying this, but given this, it would have been better to play more games with Skenes to ensure the additional service. An extension of at least some kind puts an end to that, and -- again I don't think this is hyperbolic -- extends the window to win until whatever date is on the contract. It really is that simple. Getting to the playoffs is far from simple for this team, but having the ace that can tip the whole equation in a playoff series is the hardest part.

Yes, he could get hurt for 1.5 years at some point, but when you add the obvious top of the class skillset to the instant draw at the gate, there just has to be no other conclusion. Despite the fact that I think sober analysis suggests it's not happening, there should be enormous pressure on the front office and ownership to get something done and really stake a claim on trying to win.

I don't think it's delusional, he's the most exciting player the Pirates have had, maybe ever, and has lived up to the hype, so far.

Show the fans you want to keep your ace around for the foreseeable future.

 

[since70]

Guys, as much as I'd like to see someone like Skenes get locked up, there's no way this organization is going to pay anyone 20 mill a year, they'll revert to their SOP and Skenes will get paid somewhere else either by trade or free agency

 

[Kiith Nabaal]

wow the Pirates are selling out games and aren't even 500? wew

 

[Maninthebox87]

man if the pirates would just have a competitive team I think games like last nite are the norm during the summer. Skenes seems like a pretty loyal guy more than someone trying to chase a huge payday… I know this based off nothing but just his demeanor in interviews. Obviously it needs to be a fair and competitive offer.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Both teams are allergic to passing 3rd base so far lol

 

[BusinessGoose]

Might have Spoke too soon... Faltering out here

 

[Maninthebox87]

By games like last nite I meant them being sellouts/close to max capacity… I don’t expect 14 runs a game lol

 

[td_ice]

Chandler to play in the All stars futures game

 

[td_ice]

Just unfortunate, the Falter injury. Hopefully nothing serious.

 

[since70]

When Hayes is going bad his swing is so long, and it makes his bat look slow, but I'm sure Haines is all over trying to get him straight

 

[BusinessGoose]

Just unfortunate, the Falter injury. Hopefully nothing serious.

Left posterior arm discomfort.. Day to day already

 

[td_ice]

Cruz goes yard to make it 3-2.

 

[BusinessGoose]

With Jones, Jefferies, and likely Falter all going down onto 15 day IL this weekend, it's been costly couple of games

 

[td_ice]

On the Skenes contract talk, that speculation is good news. I honestly thought it would take more than that.

That's a good 50-75 million less than I thought.

What are we waiting Nutting, let's get it done, haha. You're getting a bargain.