OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[td_ice]

Man......whew.

I am happy we won, but boy, we lose ugly and we win ugly.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[ChaosAgent]

I want to apologize to @DJ Spinoza on Keller tonight.
When he's good, he's really good. And the 4 seamer and breaking pitch were super. He was effectively wild at times. Even the fastballs off the plate had intention and purpose.

The best hitters were the best hitters with Cruz and Reynolds. Triolo and Cruz each botched a defensive play but also made a big defensive play. GTFO Rowdy.

I know he's been up and down but Stratton is making his way up the bullpen "circle of trust."

And also Gonzales looks MUCH better at the plate this year. He could have had 3-4 hits today.

 

[Factorial]

Man......whew.

I am happy we won, but boy, we lose ugly and we win ugly.

A win is a win.

Start small and grow big.

 

[td_ice]

I want to apologize to @DJ Spinoza on Keller tonight.
When he's good, he's really good. And the 4 seamer and breaking pitch were super. He was effectively wild at times. Even the fastballs off the plate had intention and purpose.

The best hitters were the best hitters with Cruz and Reynolds. Triolo and Cruz each botched a defensive play but also made a big defensive play. GTFO Rowdy.

I know he's been up and down but Stratton is making his way up the bullpen "circle of trust."

And also Gonzales looks MUCH better at the plate this year. He could have had 3-4 hits today.

That's what makes Keller so infuriatingly frustrating.

When he is on, he looks like a stud. Then has games in which he is so hittable.

But boy, if he can get on a roll, and we go throw out Jones, Skenes and a consistent Keller, that could be something. (obviously that presumes Skenes finds his mark immediately like Jones did, which I know is not guaranteed.)

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think we need to sort out the bullpen hierarchy really quickly.

Good: Holderman, Stratton, Ortiz
Pedigree and maybe good, you gotta use em: Chapman, Bednar
Innings eaters in losses: the other guys. And we'll see Priester join them soon.


This also must, must, unequivocally must, be the end of Rowdy Tellez here. He is having a disastrous effect on the team around him. Bring up Bae, he'll be useful anyways, make Joe the everyday 1B and spell him with Triolo.

 

[ChaosAgent]

That's what makes Keller so infuriatingly frustrating.

When he is on, he looks like a stud. Then has games in which he is so hittable.

But boy, if he can get on a roll, and we go throw out Jones, Skenes and a consistent Keller, that could be something. (obviously that presumes Skenes finds his mark immediately like Jones did, which I know is not guaranteed.)

My working theory at this moment is that Keller is pretty inconsistent with his command to the glove side (e.g., the side of the plate that left-handed hitters hit from). When he has a feel for that side of the plate, he's great. But when he is yanking pitches 1-2 feet wide he is not missing competitively and putting himself behind in counts.

Also I know Bob Nutting exists but it would be awesome to just extend Perez which would make us more comfortable in making Solometo/Chandler/Barco the centerpiece of a deal for a viable bat.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To me, Keller doesn't even need to be consistently dominating. He's firmly the #3 pitcher in the rotation at this point with Skenes and Jones ahead of him. Which speaks amazingly well to how good their starting rotation is now that Skenes and Jones are up. He just needs to be dully consistent and offer up solid inning eating performances. He's not paid to do anything more than that.

I'm wildly optimistic about the starting rotation going forward, assuming everyone is healthy. They simply need to fix the bats though, and they should be using some of their additional SP depth to do that with trades. With Skenes and Jones cost controlled for 7 years and Keller extended for 5 years (along with guys like Oviedo and Priester controlled as well), you really don't need a ton of top SP prospects in addition to that. I don't even know if they have a rotation spot open in the next 3+ years assuming everyone is healthy, I want to consistently be signing a veteran LHP to be at the bottom of the rotation and Skenes, Jones, Keller, Oviedo/Priester and that LHP free agent fills up the rotation.

I wouldn't trade Chandler because I think he has too high of upside to justify trading, but literally anyone else would be on the table. Considering 1Bs aren't usually expensive to acquire, I don't see a reason to not use some of their SP prospect depth to acquire a 1B solution.

 

[ChaosAgent]

To me, Keller doesn't even need to be consistently dominating. He's firmly the #3 pitcher in the rotation at this point with Skenes and Jones ahead of him. Which speaks amazingly well to how good their starting rotation is now that Skenes and Jones are up. He just needs to be dully consistent and offer up solid inning eating performances. He's not paid to do anything more than that.

I'm wildly optimistic about the starting rotation going forward, assuming everyone is healthy. They simply need to fix the bats though, and they should be using some of their additional SP depth to do that with trades. With Skenes and Jones cost controlled for 7 years and Keller extended for 5 years (along with guys like Oviedo and Priester controlled as well), you really don't need a ton of top SP prospects in addition to that. I don't even know if they have a rotation spot open in the next 3+ years assuming everyone is healthy, I want to consistently be signing a veteran LHP to be at the bottom of the rotation and Skenes, Jones, Keller, Oviedo/Priester and that LHP free agent fills up the rotation.

I wouldn't trade Chandler because I think he has too high of upside to justify trading, but literally anyone else would be on the table.

Why not just stick with Perez? He absolutely fits the bill of a guy who will have sustained success here and he does not have medical red flags.

For Chandler let's see what's available first. We have a dire need for an impact hitter.
What if we could trade Chandler, Suwinski and some 45FV prospect for Luis Robert? That would be very enticing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why not just stick with Perez? He absolutely fits the bill of a guy who will have sustained success here and he does not have medical red flags.

For Chandler let's see what's available first. We have a dire need for an impact hitter.
What if we could trade Chandler, Suwinski and some 45FV prospect for Luis Robert? That would be very enticing.

Yeah Perez would be a guy I'd be completely happy with re-signing. He may be a bit pricy for the role he'd be filling, but I don't see any issue with him as the #4 going forward.

They have their top-3 spots in the rotation filled and I'm not worried about them finding a #5 between Oviedo, Priester and the other young guys they have. They just need a lefty to balance out the amount of righties they have IMO.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah Perez would be a guy I'd be completely happy with re-signing. He may be a bit pricy for the role he'd be filling, but I don't see any issue with him as the #4 going forward.

They have their top-3 spots in the rotation filled and I'm not worried about them finding a #5 between Oviedo, Priester and the other young guys they have. They just need a lefty to balance out the amount of righties they have IMO.

I am vehemently anti-Ben Cherington but the pick of Hunter Barco was brilliant at the time and looks better and better. He looks pretty overpowering and should be up in AA in a hurry. ...Might even be our 2nd best prospect now after Chandler (testament to how far Termarr is falling). Wouldn't surprise me at all if he's in the rotation at this time next year.

But still, don't overthink it. Extend Perez 2/$24M and then you can basically check the box on starting pitching for the forseeable. They have Burrows too, almost forgot about him.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I don’t understand how the brewers are a first place team. This year. Last year. The year before. I don’t get it

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That game was definitely a win that feels like a loss. Since we're so desperate for wins, I'm not going to complain any more than that, but man, we really need some equilibrium.

We now have the opportunity to steal a road series and maybe invert the hoped-for start to this stretch (lose home series, win road series), and then if we can split with the Cubs in which we have Skenes, Jones, and Keller all going, we can at least tread some water and hope we get momentum going.

The offense does seem like it's waking up a bit, as Reynolds is showing a pulse and Cruz is on a heater. If Suwinski can catch fire, then we might really be cooking. I like the way Cutch is hitting the ball and Gonzales at least looks better to the eye test than I thought he would.

With Keller, I think his big upside at this point is shouldering innings. Tonight was a really impressive performance, since often a guy is pretty shaky after he pitches a complete game.

I don't mean the innings thing as either a backhanded compliment or some kind of strained defense. I just think that's where his value lies and that's something that's getting less common every year. A guy who doesn't always give you the best start but is still giving you a dependable 6 innings most of the time is someone who is really hard to find, especially when you add the true ceiling starts into the mix.

This probably sounds like an insane comparison, but I look at his ceiling as somewhere similar to Aaron Nola. Nola has obviously produced a lot better surface stats and been much more dependable as someone who is older and who didn't have the early career struggles Keller did. But Nola is more of a quantity over quality guy who can step it up with Ks on occasion. He's thrown some incredible playoff games, which is an accomplishment all on its own, but I see Keller in the mix of floor and ceiling there.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I hope Borucki comes back soon. He would be a tremendous upgrade over Fleming as the 2nd lefty.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[MrBrightside]

I mean, I'm not sure this is the argument he thinks it is. That's not exactly a list of good hitters.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, I'm not sure this is the argument he thinks it is. That's not exactly a list of good hitters.

The argument they're making is that the batted ball data of those guys suggest that their results should be better than the actual results so far. McCutchen only has a .257 BABIP right now despite having a very good hard hit% and other underlying numbers.

That doesn't mean that McCutchen or Olivares should be amazing or anything, but I bet both would be closer to a 110 OPS+ on the year if their results aligned with how well they were actually hitting the ball. I especially feel this is true with Olivares, he seems to have hitting the ball way too well to only have a 95 OPS+.

Just like those guys are underachieving, I think Joe is similarly overachieving to a similar level. His batted ball data isn't particularly great, he only has an xSLG of .389 while having a SLG of .500 so far this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looking more at the hitters, the confusing part to me is that I think you can make a decent hitting lineup if Shelton would actually use it. He just doesn't use it and insists on using bad hitters like Suwinski and Tellez in the lineup.

If you'd run with this batting lineup every day:

1. McCutchen (DH)
2. Reynolds (LF)
3. Cruz (SS)
4. Olivares (RF)
5. Joe (1B)
6. Hayes (3B)
7. Gonzales (2B)
8. Taylor (CF)
9. Bart/Grandal (C)

The top-5 guys in this lineup all either have solid to great batted ball data and Hayes obviously will be hitting with that group if he's healthy. Gonzales also has great batted ball data (.447 xSLG, 92.1 MPH average exit velocity), albeit in a criminally small sample size. That makes me really optimistic about Gonzales going forward, he seems to be hitting the ball really well and hopefully the results start lining up with that sooner than later.

The struggles of this offense are just as much due to Shelton continuing to put shitty hitters like Suwinski and Tellez in notable roles as it is Cherington for not adding enough with the team. Cherington is absolutely not blameless and the offense being solid relies heavily on Hayes being healthy and Gonzales breaking out, but Shelton is making the issues worse by playing guys like Williams, Tellez, Triolo and Suwinski in inflated roles.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Looking more at the hitters, the confusing part to me is that I think you can make a decent hitting lineup if Shelton would actually use it. He just doesn't use it and insists on using bad hitters like Suwinski and Tellez in the lineup.

If you'd run with this batting lineup every day:

1. McCutchen (DH)
2. Reynolds (LF)
3. Cruz (SS)
4. Olivares (RF)
5. Joe (1B)
6. Hayes (3B)
7. Gonzales (2B)
8. Taylor (CF)
9. Bart/Grandal (C)

The top-5 guys in this lineup all either have solid to great batted ball data and Hayes obviously will be hitting with that group if he's healthy. Gonzales also has great batted ball data (.447 xSLG, 92.1 MPH average exit velocity), albeit in a criminally small sample size. That makes me really optimistic about Gonzales going forward, he seems to be hitting the ball really well and hopefully the results start lining up with that sooner than later.

The struggles of this offense are just as much due to Shelton continuing to put shitty hitters like Suwinski and Tellez in notable roles as it is Cherington for not adding enough with the team. Cherington is absolutely not blameless and the offense being solid relies heavily on Hayes being healthy and Gonzales breaking out, but Shelton is making the issues worse by playing guys like Williams, Tellez, Triolo and Suwinski in inflated roles.

Taylor isn't really out hitting Suwinski, and the decision to keep Tellez is on both BC and DS. If he's here, he's here to be the LHB in the first base platoon. Cherington is still hoping it turns around. Otherwise he would have DFAd him already. The two guys talk every day apparently, and have agreed to see if Tellez can hit his way out of his slump. Personally I think the guy is toast.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Taylor isn't really out hitting Suwinski, and the decision to keep Tellez is on both BC and DS. If he's here, he's here to be the LHB in the first base platoon. Cherington is still hoping it turns around. Otherwise he would have DFAd him already. The two guys talk every day apparently, and have agreed to see if Tellez can hit his way out of his slump. Personally I think the guy is toast.

Taylor's value is in his defense, you don't need every spot in the lineup to be a great hitter. You keep him in because he's a 98th percentile defender in CF, not because of his bat.

Suwinski can't hit and also has bad defensive metrics, I don't think the two are the same.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Taylor's value is in his defense, you don't need every spot in the lineup to be a great hitter. You keep him in because he's a 98th percentile defender in CF, not because of his bat.

Suwinski can't hit and also has bad defensive metrics, I don't think the two are the same.

Suwinski is extremely streaky and we should keep trotting him out there against most RHP. I think defensive metric are very flawed considering they loved him last year. He does not seem materially different year to year. That said, it is clear that Taylor is the superior defender.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Suwinski is extremely streaky and we should keep trotting him out there against most RHP. I think defensive metric are very flawed considering they loved him last year. He does not seem materially different year to year. That said, it is clear that Taylor is the superior defender.

Yeah that's fair as well, I think you can platoon Suwinski and Taylor in CF and just alternate between the two. You're obviously losing defense there but you may be able to get some more upside with the bat when Suwinski goes on one of his heaters.

He just shouldn't be in a prime spot in the lineup. Have him as the #8 hitter and gambling on him getting hot? Sure, I can support that. Just don't have him as a cleanup hitter.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah that's fair as well, I think you can platoon Suwinski and Taylor in CF and just alternate between the two. You're obviously losing defense there but you may be able to get some more upside with the bat when Suwinski goes on one of his heaters.

He just shouldn't be in a prime spot in the lineup. Have him as the #8 hitter and gambling on him getting hot? Sure, I can support that. Just don't have him as a cleanup hitter.

Ideally once they finally cut bait with Tellez, Joe can be in that spot most days. Hayes will come back as well putting Triolo on the bench or competing against Gonzales.

I also really think they should add Bae to the mix to compete against Suwinski. He should get the call when Tellez is dropped.

 

[MrBrightside]

The argument they're making is that the batted ball data of those guys suggest that their results should be better than the actual results so far. McCutchen only has a .257 BABIP right now despite having a very good hard hit% and other underlying numbers.

That doesn't mean that McCutchen or Olivares should be amazing or anything, but I bet both would be closer to a 110 OPS+ on the year if their results aligned with how well they were actually hitting the ball. I especially feel this is true with Olivares, he seems to have hitting the ball way too well to only have a 95 OPS+.

Just like those guys are underachieving, I think Joe is similarly overachieving to a similar level. His batted ball data isn't particularly great, he only has an xSLG of .389 while having a SLG of .500 so far this year.

I understand the argument that is being made. My point is that being on a list with a bunch of pretty poor hitters is more suggestive to me that the issue isn't bad luck so much as it is just not being very good. The stat is akin to arguing that every NHL'er should have the same shooting percentage over time.

But yes, I understand the argument and hopefully their results will improve.

Taylor's value is in his defense, you don't need every spot in the lineup to be a great hitter. You keep him in because he's a 98th percentile defender in CF, not because of his bat.

Suwinski can't hit and also has bad defensive metrics, I don't think the two are the same.

You can't have a 2B, a 3B, a CF, and a C who all are in the lineup for defense, the situation they've really had most of the season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You can't have a 2B, a 3B, a CF, and a C who all are in the lineup for defense, the situation they've really had most of the season.

They have had that, but I'm hoping that Gonzales breaking out and Hayes getting healthy will mean that they'll only have a CF and a C as defense-only as their regular players.