OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not really into zealously defending Shelton after a day like today, but I guess my take boils down to thinking that the manager really isn't that impactful outside of stuff like clubhouse culture and things that are harder to know for sure about. I see the complaints but even stuff like blaming him when professionals can't execute routine plays or something kinda feels like missing the point.

I think they are all largely the same, especially now where most decisions are coming via committee / specialists / analytics driven.

He lost this one though. I think on the season, he deserves credit for keeping the group from sliding too much, which would be the thin margin that couldn't be overcome. On a game by game basis, there are thin margins like today where the game is just gonna slip away if things go awry. And though I won't blame Skenes fully, his command vacated him which led to the first paper cuts at a bad time.

To me, it's clear that they play hard for him and don't quit, so we seem to be at a turning point with how sharp his comments were after the game. It's pretty much do or die, though. We need 6-3 to stay within striking distance of the race.

It feels borderline insane to cap this off by talking about the division, but basically everyone is so so, 4-6 or 6-4 in their last ten -- fittingly, we're 5-5. Cardinals get Mets, Rays, Royals, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers and Brewers get Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Guardians, Royals, Cardinals.

Our schedule of Padres, Dodgers, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, Reds is as hard or harder, but this basically is the season. A series win would have been a nice cushion, but this gauntlet for everybody could put the division in play for anybody, even the Reds and Cubs IMO. If we can come through that and close the gap in the division somehow, then we'll have a real opportunity with a 10 game stretch vs the Nats, Marlins, and Royals (good team but their offense is as bad as ours, and if we can get the right pitching matchups, should have the advantage) in early September.

 

[MrBrightside]

Both Mackey and DK killing Shelton today. They've been decidedly in his corner (Mackey is always in everyone's corner, but nevertheless), so it seems striking. Plus Destin and Hiles have a podcast today basically devoted to the managerial malpractice yesterday and Shelton's comments after the game. I didn't hear it, but apparently Zangrilli did the same on the postgame show.

As I said before the deadline, it was very hard to envision the Pirates beating out 2 of the Mets, Braves, DBacks, and Padres. Catching the Braves and DBacks at this point seems even more farfetched - basically it's the spot currently held by the Padres that is arguably still in sight. Better win 5 of 6 against the Padres, and bringing Keller back on Thursday on 4 days rest after throwing only 4 innings on Saturday seems an obvious move that Shelton probably won't make.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Duh beating catching Atlanta Diamondbacks was always going to be difficult which is why they didn’t want to go all in at the deadline
Arizona has Cleveland and Philly next 7. They have a rough end of august September because they play Houston Dodgers brewers 7 games Boston and mets plus giants they score runs though
Mets finish with Philly Atlanta and brewers they still have Arizona and Padres we are going to have have a real good September against the reds Cubs nationals and Marlins to have a wc shot

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think we need 6-3 and it's not going to lead to much movement in the actual standings.

The more I look at it, the more I think the x-factor is how we're positioned after the tough opponents wrap up. After these west coast teams, it's Mariners, Rangers, Reds, Cubs, Guardians, Cubs. All beatable, but all easily able to beat us if we enter any kind of slide.

I think if we maintain a winning record through this stretch, we'll be looking at 7 vs the Nationals and Marlins as a golden opportunity to actually position us inside one of the WC spots - or as batshit as it sounds today, right there for the division - as we enter the true home stretch of 16 games in September.

If we don't, we'll probably be looking at a need to go 6-1 or 7-0 in that stretch and still get some help and need to be very good to close out the month. Either way, that stretch of games will be a huge opportunity. Once you get to the last week of the month or September, IMO any team that can rattle off something like an 9-2 run is going to put themselves out front. I don't have a lot of confidence it will be us, as these next 9 games look like they could really kill things (2-7 would probably do it).

 

[BusinessGoose]

Agreed. And yeah not sold that they can go on such a run. Dropping near-sure wins (not just this week, all year) has been BRUTAL.

And dropping Series' to teams closely ahead in standings is very sad to see.

 

[Empoleon8771]

 

[BusinessGoose]

I know it's cringe to say cringe still, but f***ing cringe

 

[td_ice]

I thought it was gonna be a joke about Skenes watching his teammates blow another game he started.

Dan Z. was on theFAN today, said the Pirates are 9-5 in Skenes games. What do you think their record should be, "it could easily be 13-1, and probably should be."

 

[Honour Over Glory]

This team gives you just enough for hope and then laughs in your face with incompetence. Pittsburgh sports is at least consistent in doing this, we can't have nice things anymore as Penguins, Pirates, and Steelers fans.

Tomlin - Wasting away Watt's best years.
Sullivan - Finally has Sid & Geno playing full 82 games back 2 back and he's missed the playoffs convincingly with his incompetence as a coach, is still hailed a f***ing hero.
Pirates - Skenes is a potential Goat, doesn't do enough at the deadline to maximize this and never will under Boob Nutting.

Eventually I will learn to have zero expectations and somehow stick to it for all 3. I need to trek the most sacred mountains to find the most sacred zen being to teach me.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Bailey Falter vs Dylan Cease tomorrow, great

 

[BusinessGoose]

Advice to paul skenes from his agent when they pirates try to give him a contract this summer:

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Bailey Falter vs Dylan Cease tomorrow, great

Thursday is the only pitching matchup in this series favoring us.

 

[Factorial]

Bailey Falter vs Dylan Cease tomorrow, great

You should author a lengthy post on how BF has done really well this year as an end of the rotation pitcher.

 

[Ulf5]

You should author a lengthy post on how BF has done really well this year as an end of the rotation pitcher.

DJ Spinoza posts- best reads on hfboards, baseball posts on a hockey message board. Fact. Go figure.

 

[ChaosAgent]

ONeil Cruz vs. AJ Puk, death emojis galore

 

[BusinessGoose]

ONeil Cruz vs. AJ Puk, death emojis galore

472ft homerun incoming, after two straight strikeouts swinging outside the zone lol

 

[Coastal Kev]

if the Pirates really wanted to compete these playoffs they should have spent during the offseason. May to early June nuked this team's chances. If they had added a couple of legit bat entering the season it's easy to project that could have easily had 5-8 additional wins during their bad stretch and would be currently sitting near the top of the division. That's the real story of the 2024 Pirates.

 

[ChaosAgent]

if the Pirates really wanted to compete these playoffs they should have spent during the offseason. May to early June nuked this team's chances. If they had added a couple of legit bat entering the season it's easy to project that could have easily had 5-8 additional wins during their bad stretch and would be currently sitting near the top of the division. That's the real story of the 2024 Pirates.

I think there is some truth to this but easy to say in hindsight. I wanted pitching and pitching is the area that has delivered (though slipping). Hayes, Suwinski/MAT and Davis sucking offensively has killed this team. Davis was replaced by Bart so that is at least covered. Hayes derives value through his defense, though I don't think FOs view him like the public sites do as far as the relative value of defense. Most would not take Hayes unless he hits, I don't think.

Suwinski just pisses me off. Oh yeah also forgot that nothingmancer Olivares, getting used to AAA again.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

You guys are too kind, and Falter has certainly been a low key bright spot for basically the whole year. Maybe he rises to the occasion again. The Padres have basically been on cruise control since the ASB with no series losses. Not quite as scorching hot as the Diamondbacks, but they are peaking at the right time.

About the only positivity I can muster is that maybe Cease is due for something of a clunker. The guy has given up 4 hits in his last 4 starts combined, and the start before that was a 7 IP 3 ER performance against the Diamondbacks (though they lost). He does have some bad starts on his resume, but this looks about as bad a matchup as can be given the surrounding circumstances. He's the kind of guy who can give up 7 or 8 hits in a start and still turn in 0-1 run because of the swing and miss stuff.

Backs have been against the wall before. We'll see what this team is made of this week. I don't think it's worth sweating other teams that much with how we seem to be hanging on the precipice of disaster, but MIL-ATL is an interesting matchup. If ATL can win, it's more catchup in the wild card race but perhaps more of a window of opportunity in the division. My take at the moment is that Milwaukee is the worst team that we are chasing between between ATL, NYM, SDP, AZ. With the Giants right in the mix now too and the Cards, Cubs, and Reds all very relevant, the best path seems like taking care of our own business and rooting against Milwaukee as much as possible.

I'm in outer space with this now but basically: thrive in this stretch 6-3 or survive 5-4, then handle business and maintain consistent winning through mid-September which features lots of games we should win and a crucial 10 games vs CIN/CHC. With any luck, the gap has narrowed to nothing or our favor with Milwaukee and we have a shot at the division in the home series against them at the end of the season. (Facing the Yankees for the final series doesn't seem fun, especially since it's unlikely they will have clinched their division, but on the flip side if the MIL/NYY series have playoff implications for us at all, it may be stressful but I can't see complaining, especially given how we all feel right now).


Otherwise, I fully agree with @Coastal Kev's recent post. The biggest overall factor in why we are stuck in the mud right now stems from not taking winnable games earlier on the calendar. Every single team can play this game, but the Pirates have had a woeful offense for basically the entire season. We had an enormous cushion as usual with a hot start and then squandered it in large part because of the offense.

I was banging on the table for starting pitchers, which turned out to be mistaken for the most part (though egotistically I will say that all of Flaherty, Wacha, and Lugo are looking like great signings). I do strongly believe that it's as simple as better offense -> bigger cushion to convert some of these winnable games we dropped.

If/when we are eliminated, that's immediately the single question of the offseason, along with perhaps the possibility of some kind of Skenes contract security. Management may have been blindsided by guys like Suwinski and Davis (though side note: I still hold irrational hope for a redemption 2024 story for him...), but ultimately those are their failings too. They maybe get some leeway for not thinking Skenes would instantly be the best pitcher in the league or that Jones would every bit look the part of a #2, with Keller basically being a #2 workhorse anchor. We can also add in the innings cap questions for the young guys here. They do not have that benefit of the doubt once we look ahead to 2025.

 

[Coastal Kev]

You guys are too kind, and Falter has certainly been a low key bright spot for basically the whole year. Maybe he rises to the occasion again. The Padres have basically been on cruise control since the ASB with no series losses. Not quite as scorching hot as the Diamondbacks, but they are peaking at the right time.

About the only positivity I can muster is that maybe Cease is due for something of a clunker. The guy has given up 4 hits in his last 4 starts combined, and the start before that was a 7 IP 3 ER performance against the Diamondbacks (though they lost). He does have some bad starts on his resume, but this looks about as bad a matchup as can be given the surrounding circumstances. He's the kind of guy who can give up 7 or 8 hits in a start and still turn in 0-1 run because of the swing and miss stuff.

Backs have been against the wall before. We'll see what this team is made of this week. I don't think it's worth sweating other teams that much with how we seem to be hanging on the precipice of disaster, but MIL-ATL is an interesting matchup. If ATL can win, it's more catchup in the wild card race but perhaps more of a window of opportunity in the division. My take at the moment is that Milwaukee is the worst team that we are chasing between between ATL, NYM, SDP, AZ. With the Giants right in the mix now too and the Cards, Cubs, and Reds all very relevant, the best path seems like taking care of our own business and rooting against Milwaukee as much as possible.

I'm in outer space with this now but basically: thrive in this stretch 6-3 or survive 5-4, then handle business and maintain consistent winning through mid-September which features lots of games we should win and a crucial 10 games vs CIN/CHC. With any luck, the gap has narrowed to nothing or our favor with Milwaukee and we have a shot at the division in the home series against them at the end of the season. (Facing the Yankees for the final series doesn't seem fun, especially since it's unlikely they will have clinched their division, but on the flip side if the MIL/NYY series have playoff implications for us at all, it may be stressful but I can't see complaining, especially given how we all feel right now).


Otherwise, I fully agree with @Coastal Kev's recent post. The biggest overall factor in why we are stuck in the mud right now stems from not taking winnable games earlier on the calendar. Every single team can play this game, but the Pirates have had a woeful offense for basically the entire season. We had an enormous cushion as usual with a hot start and then squandered it in large part because of the offense.

I was banging on the table for starting pitchers, which turned out to be mistaken for the most part (though egotistically I will say that all of Flaherty, Wacha, and Lugo are looking like great signings). I do strongly believe that it's as simple as better offense -> bigger cushion to convert some of these winnable games we dropped.

If/when we are eliminated, that's immediately the single question of the offseason, along with perhaps the possibility of some kind of Skenes contract security. Management may have been blindsided by guys like Suwinski and Davis (though side note: I still hold irrational hope for a redemption 2024 story for him...), but ultimately those are their failings too. They maybe get some leeway for not thinking Skenes would instantly be the best pitcher in the league or that Jones would every bit look the part of a #2, with Keller basically being a #2 workhorse anchor. We can also add in the innings cap questions for the young guys here. They do not have that benefit of the doubt once we look ahead to 2025.

The only thing I would suggest regarding your detailed posts are to break them up into multiple posts. It's harder to read long posts on certain devices.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like Shelton benched Cruz today.

I'll be speechless if we win this game. Falter is gonna have to pitch out of his mind and we can't make any mistakes at all.

 

[MrBrightside]

Cruz better be sick or hurt or in jail because if he's sitting against a RHP in a game they desperately need tonight just because...

 

[BusinessGoose]

Cruz better be sick or hurt or in jail because if he's sitting against a RHP in a game they desperately need tonight just because...

It's because he single handedly cost them 3 wins in the last week

 

[MrBrightside]

It's because he single handedly cost them 3 wins in the last week

You spelled Holderman wrong.

 

[BusinessGoose]

You spelled Holderman wrong.

Let's hope he doesn't get on the field EITHER

*shelton pen decisions looming*