OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815124835191890403

Palate cleanser

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Taking 2 of 3 from the best team in baseball is a damn good weekend. Now let’s have Skenes and Keller do what they do.

And I have come to the conclusion that they need to make sure they get Rooker. Does that mean selling the farm, no. But they should have the prospects to make it happen.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And I have come to the conclusion that they need to make sure they get Rooker. Does that mean selling the farm, no. But they should have the prospects to make it happen.

If it just takes Chandler 1:1 I'm all in on it.

Chandler is both our best prospect and pretty overrated here. He is ranked somewhere in the middle to low half of the top 100 by most national publications. He is ranked 73 in Fangraphs and 50th on MLB.com.

I think here we are overrating him because we see him as similar to Jones. Extremely athletic righties with some stuff that pops.
But A. Chandler is not Jones, he is not the same person and
B. Jones has not been some ace in his rookie year. He has an ERA+ of 116, which is good! But it's in the realm of Roansy Contreras in 2022, not an ace

Chandler is very talented, but he has an ERA of 3.67 in A-Ball. Speaking of which, Barco debuted today and shoved.

https://www.milb.com/gameday/curve-vs-patriots/2024/07/21/750566/final/box

I still question the Rooker/Cutch dynamic if Rooker truly, truly cannot put on a RF glove and not embarrass himself. Who knows though, the Phils are the best team in the league and they put Castellanos in the field out there.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wouldn't place a lot of stock in top-100 lists because they are preseason and usually not updated in any meaningful way mid-season. He should move up based on his AA performance.

I'm on the "don't trade Chandler" train, though I would clarify that I generally don't think prospect hugging is a good practice and even cases that are bad ultimately aren't that bad (I'm not going to do it here, but the extreme version of this is that I would probably still defend the Archer trade today).

There are two main reasons I don't want to see him traded: 1) his fastball is better than Skenes' and Jones'. 2) he's still fully growing into being a full-time pitcher and the ceiling is still the kind of pitcher we just can't get via free agency. It's a little bit ridiculous to compare anybody to Skenes, but Chandler is on a similar path in terms of being newer to full time pitching, with the main difference (besides Skenes' talent) that Chandler is doing it while starting a pro career instead of at Air Force/LSU. Chandler already trained with him last offseason and I don't think that was an accident. Especially with Davis having a bad year, I imagine Chandler is seen internally as the crown jewel of their draft and development program right now.

That said, prospects fail, and it's not realistic to expect a successful prospect to fully hit his right-tail outcome. What still makes me hesitant is that the right-tail outcome for Chandler is utter rotation dominance if Skenes, Jones, Keller, and him are all firing on all cylinders for 1 season or more.

With Rooker, I don't even know how important the control years actually are. You are buying one of top-20 batters in baseball and if we are talking pure offense, it's likely top-10. If you get that for the remainder of this year and next year, then the prospect calculus becomes more stomachable IMO, even though I think most anyone would say it's an overpayment if such a deal went down.

I don't think Rooker can really play the field, and I would imagine the Clemente Wall would add to the difficulties but I really don't have much of a read on him personally, so who knows. Even presuming Cutch will be back (and I think barring injury it's a lock), there's a path to having him pick up 1B over the offseason and sometimes living with the bat in the field. As Chaos points out, the Phillies are living with Castellanos and basically helped him be somewhat passable by just tweaking how he approached fly balls.

My ultimate hangup is that I am not sold on the huge rise in batting average being sustainable. If that slides back, then he's 3 true outcomes and no position, and if the power sinks back from plus plus, it's a cliff. That's the potential downside and why I would want to reserve Chandler in a deal.

In the end I suppose I go back and forth a little bit. Prospect hoarding often doesn't work out and I think it pays to be aggressive when the opportunity is actually right in front of you. If we got Rooker in a 1 for 1 prospect deal, then I'd say it's go time and get on board the offensive investment.

I'll be repeating this til I am blue in the face for the next week, but I still think Jazz for whatever low minors guys appeal to Miami + a supplementary addition or two is the perfect sweet spot. One of those guys could turn into a Cruz-type of talent, but they will be 5 years away which is likely at the end of the window with Skenes. Jazz solves the biggest weakness on the team and has legit 30/30 upside.

Arozarena has only played a handful of games in CF this year, but I also would love that move. He's heating up at the perfect time and is a similar power-speed threat. In some ways getting a guy who is going to perform in the next 2.5 months is almost the most important thing, even though the years of control also would be nice (you can make the same argument about Rooker though).

Finally, nobody has entertained it seriously due to the likelihood he's the prize of the deadline, but if we're talking extreme aggression, then Robert is still the move. I get the worries over health and I would have them seriously myself, but this is a truly elite player. He's still fully getting his legs under him this year, but the 2023 season was crazy, and combined with the age and the contract, it's almost too good to dream on. That would be the move to plant a glad and loudly say we are winning in the next 2.5 seasons. I don't think it has a chance in hell of happening, but to me if we are going to go all out, that's the angle (Baltimore would still be able to top it without including Holiday).

 

[ChaosAgent]

I still don't know why Bae is in Indy and Suwinski is here. Are we shopping Bae as part of the deal for any of these guys?

 

[BusinessGoose]

I still don't know why Bae is in Indy and Suwinski is here. Are we shopping Bae as part of the deal for any of these guys?

I dunno. I would rather toss Suwinski with his cold streaks in a deal and actually use Bae, who i feel is more utilitarian without the pure HR chances.

 

[ChaosAgent]

1) his fastball is better than Skenes' and Jones'. 2) he's still fully growing into being a full-time pitcher and the ceiling is still the kind of pitcher we just can't get via free agency. It's a little bit ridiculous to compare anybody to Skenes, but Chandler is on a similar path in terms of being newer to full time pitching, with the main difference (besides Skenes' talent) that Chandler is doing it while starting a pro career instead of at Air Force/LSU. Chandler already trained with him last offseason and I don't think that was an accident. Especially with Davis having a bad year, I imagine Chandler is seen internally as the crown jewel of their draft and development program right now.

The bolded is where I get incredulous with the Bubba Chandler hype. How is Bubba Chandler's fastball possibly a better pitch than Paul Skenes'?

We saw with Glasnow a non-#1 overall pitcher become a top 10 prospect in baseball. Chandler is not that from a prospect pedigree perspective. He's probably closest to Keller 2018-2019 or Priester 2021 was rankings-wise. I acknowledge his right-tail is high but so are a lot of prospects - especially pitching prospects given the volatility.

Anyway, maybe I'm banging on about Chandler cause it's my own axe to grind. There are plenty of ways to get Rooker from Oakland without including Chandler. I've cooled on Robert due to injury and general "stench of the White Sox" concerns. Arozarena would be a great get although Nutting would have heartburn on where his arbitration salaries are heading - looking at something like $12M and $16M to keep him.

Chisholm could also be had with a couple 18-20 year olds as you mention. Miami took 4 for Arraez and I think Arraez has more value than Chisholm. I still think Miami is a super logical place for Henry Davis and would be cool doing something around Chisholm for Davis.

 

[MrBrightside]

I find the constant obsession and overrating of prospects exhausting and I also would not trade Chandler for a corner OF, especially one who you probably can't trust in the field. I just don't think this team is one bat away from being a real contender and for as bright and shiny a new toy as Rooker or someone similar may be, in real impact it's probably 1-2 wins over the next 60 games and not worth it. If they can get one of these guys without dealing Chandler (or Johnson), go for it, but otherwise it's not worth it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The bolded is where I get incredulous with the Bubba Chandler hype. How is Bubba Chandler's fastball possibly a better pitch than Paul Skenes'?

We saw with Glasnow a non-#1 overall pitcher become a top 10 prospect in baseball. Chandler is not that from a prospect pedigree perspective. He's probably closest to Keller 2018-2019 or Priester 2021 was rankings-wise. I acknowledge his right-tail is high but so are a lot of prospects - especially pitching prospects given the volatility.

Before adding anything further, I just want to make sure and clarify that I do not at all mean to suggest Chandler is comparable to Skenes or has a chance to be better or something. Especially with how badly armchair analysts wanted to talk about Skenes' fastball as having "poor shape" or ending up in "the dead zone", which turned out to be ridiculous. Being able to command 100 all over the zone and edges on a good day automatically makes the pitch plus, without factoring in anything else. Then you add Skenes' advanced approach and multiple double plus offspeed pitches (as crazy as it is to say, we haven't seen the slider truly dominate yet) and he's just a unicorn.

But I think the traits on Chandler's fastball make it a better pitch in a vacuum. It has more ride and generates so many whiffs. He has the offspeed stuff to take this foundation and really make himself into a front of the rotation anchor, but we still have some steps to go before we get there. I have not watched a lot of him this year, so I am not going to pretend I have some kind of scouting-esque perspective on him, but you can see that the control has taken a big step forward this year, and presumably the command as well, given how consistently he is striking everybody out.

He basically just has one bad blowup start this year and then a ton of forward momentum. I guess to put all my hesitation in another way: trading him now is trading a guy who is still on an upward developmental path. He isn't rule 5 eligible until Dec '25 and so I wouldn't even necessarily expect to see him in MLB in 2025, though it's within the realm of possibility. Bringing this up feels a little bit too crazy, but it's in theory possible that he's a pitcher in a transition wave between the Keller-Skenes fronted group and whatever might come way later. (i.e., the gangbusters scenario is he's debuting for a cup of coffee in 2025, having his own strong rookie campaign in 2026 to the point that he's being talked about as our next foundational pitcher, coinciding with Keller's final two years and in a bad case, Skenes' final two years)


All of that is just to say that if it's not for an overwhelming immediate impact, it has enormous risk of backfiring in the worst way possible. I do think that Robert represents that kind of impact, so if we made the trade for him, I am not sweating literally any specific prospects given up, even granting that Robert has injury risk. If it's Rooker, you run the risk of the bat going sideways and being a high-K, 15ish HR type player, which would really sting if you gave up someone that continues asserting himself and is among the best pitching prospects in baseball (he isn't quite there yet, to be clear, at least IMO).

Finally, I hate to pull this card and pull it vaguely, but I can say that I know one or two people who have sources (they are not Pirates people), and it currently doesn't sound like Oakland is planning to trade Rooker. That took me by surprise, but there's a way that it kind of makes sense if you are Oakland. They haven't done it successfully in a while, but their approach has always been to build an ok team with whatever cheap parts they could and whatever prospects they could develop. Rooker isn't going to cost them money, so they don't have a strong reason to move him in that sense.

What I heard might be wrong or some kind of misdirection, but I just toss it into the ring as we enter this final hectic week. I will again reiterate Jazz, which just lines up too good with our need and even in a sense with the state of our system. I don't think any team is going to trade top-100 prospects for him, or if so, it would be guys in the backend or just off a list who might pop in the coming years (which was exactly what Peguero was when we acquired him in the Marte deal).

This is again overly long, but a pretty funny scenario would be if we ended up using Keiner Delgado in a Chisholm trade. I say this because we got Delgado from the Yankees for Brubaker, and the early reports sound good. The Yankees seem like they could be players for Jazz, and the Yankees are also a team that perennially has these international signing types with high ceilings.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I find the constant obsession and overrating of prospects exhausting and I also would not trade Chandler for a corner OF, especially one who you probably can't trust in the field. I just don't think this team is one bat away from being a real contender and for as bright and shiny a new toy as Rooker or someone similar may be, in real impact it's probably 1-2 wins over the next 60 games and not worth it. If they can get one of these guys without dealing Chandler (or Johnson), go for it, but otherwise it's not worth it.

Yeah, more succinctly put, I agree with this: we need to be pretty protective of upper minors pitching, especially with big ceilings, and by default we need to be protective of Johnson because he's the only hitting prospect of much note outside of maybe McAdoo.

Generally, I think fans of teams like ours do a lot of overrating of our own prospects, but we need to cut a path between making an investment in the team and preserving both depth and upside coming out of the system.

It's a tricky calculus this year, because IMO the circumstances call for a lot of aggression. The WC race and the division are wide open, and even among the highly ranked teams, you can basically find holes with all of them. At the same time, it's hard to be that confident that Skenes and especially Jones will pitch into the fall at such a good level, and we have to bear in mind protecting their arms for next year, because one going down like Oviedo would be a massive gut shot.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think this team needs to be protective with their SP prospects, they have plenty of cost controlled arms at the MLB level already, but you don't trade an upper minors good SP prospect for a DH when you already have a DH.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815407283771191564

Not sure what the actual rumor is because I don't subscribe to the Athletic, but despite a lot of people seeming meh on Thomas, I don't hate this idea.

He's a slight buy low guy, because he was a real power-speed threat and the power has dialed back a decent bit this year. I think he's still better than what we are seeing this year, so as a low cost option, I like him. I like him more than Ward.

It's a pipedream but I honestly think revamping the OF would be the way to go. If we got something like Jazz and Thomas, it would change the dynamic of the team with all the speed added. Jazz and Arozarena would accomplish the same. That kind of approach would be more aggressive than trading for the big prize in Robert.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Can Rooker's defense really be that bad that he can't play RF, especially in PNC park?

I do agree with not trading upper level SP prospects like Chandler. But this team has zero upper level hitting prospects. They have to give to get.

And McCutchen should not be the reason they don't trade for a guy like Rooker. He has 3 more years of control and can very well be a future piece for the team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Can Rooker's defense really be that bad that he can't play RF, especially in PNC park?

I do agree with not trading upper level SP prospects like Chandler. But this team has zero upper level hitting prospects. They have to give to get.

And McCutchen should not be the reason they don't trade for a guy like Rooker. He has 3 more years of control and can very well be a future piece for the team.

If they're trading notable assets for a guy, they need to get an OFer who can actually play the OF. The Pirates already have a comically bad OF defense between Reynolds (-10 OAA), Suwinski (-8 OAA) and Olivares (-6 OAA).

Rooker is purely a DH and the Pirates already have that both now (McCutchen) and in the future (Reynolds).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Just listened to Robert Murray's live show. He's doing it three times this week, always a lot of rumors and info. Relevant notes:

- He says he is skeptical that the A's will move Rooker, but didn't elaborate further.

- He referenced that Poni tweet and said that the Pirates and Nationals have not had a conversation about Lane Thomas.

- While the Rays may buy and sell like always, he thinks Arozarena is a prime candidate to be traded.

- Jays are in limbo, but he thinks Guerrero and Bichette won't be moved.

- He has maintained this for a long while now, but he seems confident that the Pirates will add at least one bat. No names mentioned.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've said a couple of times over the past few weeks that it's easy to get too narrowly focused on one or two specific games instead of the larger picture of the season, but there's really no denying that the games this week basically have the feel of playoff games.

I think it's maybe one step too far to say that tonight and tomorrow are "must-win", but the 2-1 start is huge and we just can't really give it back with a poor showing. I'd probably say more accurately that we need 3-3 in these next two series. It will be a lot harder to win on the road without our best pitching.

We also have a great opportunity vs. St. Louis. Pallante has been a fairly middling pitcher but completely shut us down. Lynn is going tomorrow and that's a game you need to win with Skenes on the mound. It seems like we are going to miss Mikolas, who has given us fits this year.

The Cardinals offense has come alive in the past couple of games as they just smacked the Braves. Keller vs Pallante is a matchup that should still go to us, so we really need the best version of Keller tonight. With the damp weather in Pittsburgh, this seems like a game that might be 3-2 or 2-1. Take this one and you really have the wind at your back with Skenes in game 2 and a chance to lock down the series.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Suwinski and Hayes are so useless.

 

[Mr Jeff Jimerson]

Suwinski and Hayes are so useless.

It makes me absolutely sick to my stomach. 37 year old Andy McCutchen is playing his heart out during his farewell tour but its not enough because his teammates are useless bums.

If we lose yet another gem being pitched by our pitchers and don't trade for a bat, I'm done rooting for the Buccos.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Suwinski and Hayes are so useless.

I've long been over Suwinski, but even Hayes is pushing at my patience at this point. I still think he's worth keeping with his defense and low salary, since $8 million is chump change for a 3 WAR 3B. But still, his lack of hitting production is getting wildly annoying for this team.

On a good team, Hayes wouldn't be any higher than a #8 or #9 hitter. He's a 3B version of Clint Barmes.

Damn nice play by the Cards there. Obviously you want Bart to get that out of the infield, but that scores a run if it's not directly hit at Arenado.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Huge missed opportunity...

 

[metalan2]

Huge missed opportunity...

I would have been more surprised if they did get a run there.

It's absolutely sickening this management and ownership think this lineup is acceptable with this pitching. Disgrace.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wouldn't expect this sort of major changes to the OF, but I'd really hope that Olivares, Taylor and Suwinski aren't on the team next year and Joe is only a bench guy at most.

Gonzales makes it 2-1! He's super clutch in these kind of situations.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Gonzo!

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Rowdy Tellez redemption arc is absolutely wild.

98.4 MPH single off of a lefty to get Gonzales to 3rd

 

[BusinessGoose]

Nicky G, so clutch