I think the little ad campaign around the Cruz promotion was shameless, and it is especially true with the way the Indianapolis social media accounts have been tongue-in-cheek for a few weeks now. It is what it is -- I'm glad that Baker's comments from a bit ago weren't actually about the future, and that we are rolling out with Cruz immediately upon super two safely clearing.
For the sake of clarity, super two simply secures that Cruz will still be pre-arb eligible in 2025 rather than start getting arbitration hearings. The Pirates control his rights for 7 seasons, through 2029, and the only way that would have changed is if he didn't accrue 20 days of service this year (it's 15 normally, but since he had a few last year, that would be the safe cut-off for the actual extra year of service), on the one hand, or if he won/finished second in ROY voting on the other.
Given how thin the race really has been this year, I don't think it's out of the question that Cruz could still enter the ROY mix. Steamer has been and still is pretty bullish on him, and it's a pretty accurate projection system.
Cruz has pretty consistently managed to have a patient approach at the plate and avoid spiraling into stretches where his swing gets long and he chases. He'd had that issue a few times early on last year, and I saw it again for a week or so earlier this year, but mostly he's managed to eliminate it. I think the idea that sometimes seems to be floating out there that he has bad plate discipline is just subjective because of how big he is. The walk rate in particular this year is something to be very excited about, and hopefully he will hit the ground running.
I think it makes sense to have him higher in the order because his speed makes him a real threat. I do think a healthy Marcano has earned some run as a leadoff batter, but I would also like to see us have Cruz hitting in front of Hayes at some point soon.
