OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Hopefully that start doesn't put a dent in Contreras' confidence.

Sometimes, good teams just hit you. It happens.

 

[Gallatin]

Hopefully that start doesn't put a dent in Contreras' confidence.

Sometimes, good teams just hit you. It happens.

He's got a lot of belief in himself these days. Here's an interesting interview about the kids, and the environment Pittsburgh is creating to support rookies like Contrares.

There's a nugget round the 3min mark that supports my recent criticisms of O'Neill Cruz' and his mental make-up. I've accumulated a lot of comments by coaches similar to this now (hustle, focus, attitude, resistance to change), along with my own observations of him in the field on streams these last 2 seasons.



I couldn't agree more with Baker's thoughts on Cruz. And his Christmas comment had me smiling, and thinking fondly of DJ.

The comments on Solo and Davis reinforce my perspectives, and strengthen my beliefs in the initial evaluations I made of these two players character. They are the opposite of O'Neill Cruz in metal makeup. I question if Cruz even understands what soft skills are and why they're important.

I don't think service time has anything to do with the situation, and believe Baker is being legit honest for the most part here. A guy like Cruz with his poor mental makeup and very large ego might not be able to handle the fall of seriously failing in his first MLB run. I heartily endorse waiting up to another full year even for this guy to put more things together before you risk him blowing out in Pittsburgh.

Big men take longer. Big men take longer. Big Men Take Longer To Develop. Judge was 25 in his rookie season. On top of the metal makeup issues, I could see waiting until his 25-year-old season even - for O'Neill Cruz to figure some things out.

I'm skeptical he's really going to change though. He can tighten up some skills, which will help for sure. Guys do have breakthroughs occasionally that can evolve their basic mindset, but that's like a 20-1 proposition from my experience. Poor character isn't guaranteed to prevent a player from succeeding in MLB, but it is guaranteed to ensure that he's not going to reach anything close to his ceiling IMO.

O'Neill could "get religion", or a good strong woman in his ear. Those tend to help with these kinds of issues. Kinda desperate to be proven wrong on Cruz, I want you guys to be able to hammer me on this one.

And yes, I'm clearly that Intangibles Guy, the one that knows he's right they matter in player development and MLB careers.

 

[Gallatin]

More interesting thoughts on O'Neill Cruz.

130 -715 on the stream. I listen to these at 1.5 speed to save time. I usually don't think these videos are worth catching the whole thing, but often there are nuggets in the beginning.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Those are great interviews @Gallatin

I think work ethic and intangibles, baseball IQ are huge markers for success.

 

[ChaosAgent]

While you are right that intangibles and work ethic are huge components and you make fun of the impatience of DJ, bear in mind that you're largely hearing about unquantifiable things via puff pieces from media members who are trading access for positive coverage.

I get that Pirates Prospects is great coverage but they have an agenda and an imperative to put a generally positive spin on things. They are writing the usual training camp puff pieces - best shape of his life, etc. - but with more granular detail. You sh1t on Huntington's culture but when Pirates Prospects was in its heyday they had nothing but praise for the system then. Was Tim Williams hoodwinked? Just wrong? Trading Access for positive coverage? Or maybe things weren't as bad as you claimed they were.

I'm sure the players and staff IS trying very hard and trying to instill the right stuff. But it's not a guarantee of anything. The vast majority of other organizations are doing the same stuff.

All of this is like college admissions based solely on extracurricular activities. Like, great! It shows character. But it can be very, very inflated on a CV. When you say stuff like "we won't need external pitching," you're falling for it.

 

[Gallatin]

While you are right that intangibles and work ethic are huge components and you make fun of the impatience of DJ, bear in mind that you're largely hearing about unquantifiable things via puff pieces from media members who are trading access for positive coverage.

I get that Pirates Prospects is great coverage but they have an agenda and an imperative to put a generally positive spin on things. They are writing the usual training camp puff pieces - best shape of his life, etc. - but with more granular detail. You sh1t on Huntington's culture but when Pirates Prospects was in its heyday they had nothing but praise for the system then. Was Tim Williams hoodwinked? Just wrong? Trading Access for positive coverage? Or maybe things weren't as bad as you claimed they were.

I'm sure the players and staff IS trying very hard and trying to instill the right stuff. But it's not a guarantee of anything. The vast majority of other organizations are doing the same stuff.

All of this is like college admissions based solely on extracurricular activities. Like, great! It shows character. But it can be very, very inflated on a CV. When you say stuff like "we won't need external pitching," you're falling for it.

Criticism of the position I'm taking is reasonable IMO. I'm taking the unpopular road for sure. I know some years back - I'd be taking shots at the posts I put up about Cruz. I would be arguing with myself.

Don't you watch the games though? Don't you see it? That immature me first crappy attitude displayed on the field somewhat regularly? I sure do.

And ultimately I'm pulling for you to be right here. Make sure to rub it in good if I'm proven wrong.

Another thing with Tim williams, your criticism is quite amusing cuz it oddly echoes his own of himself in the past. He's actually quite bitter about some things, and can't believe how naive he was back in the day. He's got layers now. And gets them too.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Criticism of the position I'm taking is reasonable IMO. I'm taking the unpopular road for sure. I know some years back - I'd be taking shots at the posts I put up about Cruz. I would be arguing with myself.

Don't you watch the games though? Don't you see it? That immature me first crappy attitude displayed on the field somewhat regularly? I sure do.

And ultimately I'm pulling for you to be right here. Make sure to rub it in good if I'm proven wrong.

Another thing with Tim williams, your criticism is quite amusing cuz it oddly echoes his own of himself in the past. He's actually quite bitter about some things, and can't believe how naive he was back in the day. He's got layers now. And gets them too.

This isn't even about Cruz.

I think PP/Tim puts out great content. But the nature of it is going to be fluffy by its nature. I'm trying, here's what I'm doing to get better, here's the process, etc. It's the same stuff as how at the start of Steelers training camp every player gets a fluffy story written about them. It's just minor league players.

"Hey Santiago Florez has an 8 ERA, but he's focused on his changeup and his mental routine between pitches and establishing his connection with his catcher" blah blah blah. Like, it's all great content but give it the grains of salt it deserves.

What about the players who have just middling character but they know how to say the right things to a reporter to portray themselves as having great character? This is where the majority of human beings are BTW. We are bell curves.

 

[DanielPlainview]

My extremely too early take on Cruz is that he’ll bust. So I don’t really care how quickly he gets to mlb. If he never shows MLB stuff then he shouldn’t be here.

 

[Gallatin]

This isn't even about Cruz.

I think PP/Tim puts out great content. But the nature of it is going to be fluffy by its nature. I'm trying, here's what I'm doing to get better, here's the process, etc. It's the same stuff as how at the start of Steelers training camp every player gets a fluffy story written about them. It's just minor league players.

"Hey Santiago Florez has an 8 ERA, but he's focused on his changeup and his mental routine between pitches and establishing his connection with his catcher" blah blah blah. Like, it's all great content but give it the grains of salt it deserves.

What about the players who have just middling character but they know how to say the right things to a reporter to portray themselves as having great character? This is where the majority of human beings are BTW. We are bell curves.

Oh man that's all totally right. I don't talk about intangibles plus or minus with a ton of players, just the ones I've studied enough to have a feel.

I don't feel those articles as puff pieces, at least these days. I view them as honest open looks at prospects and their progress. Plenty of Pitchers struggle struggle struggle, and then put it all together and suddenly their in the Bigs. Given the non-linear nature of player development, I'm often astounded at how fans insist it be the opposite.

That's why guys often kind of come out of nowhere, we ignore them cuz the progress isn't linear. That's really why I've focused more and more on tools and their development over performance. That's why for instance, I'm not too worried about Jones right now, he's got plenty of time to figure things out, but the essential tools are there to be dominant.

Ddditionally these puff pieces as you mentioned, how are they puff pieces? They're not saying these guys are going to be the next big thing, they're just pointing out what makes them prospects, and where they are in their development.

There's a huge amount of criticism of some of our prospects right now on Pirate Prospects. That tends to stay in the premium section, but Tim Williams has been taking shots bro.

O'Neill Cruz is one of those guys he's had in his crosshairs lately, mostly as I intuit, he's getting a bad feeling from the Bucs staff about Cruz. That has influenced my perspective for sure, that there's criticism of Cruz inside the Pirates organization. Williams hasn't come right out and said that, it's kind of implied a few times though.

And then lo and behold there's Baker yesterday saying it right there out in the open. Focus. Attitude. Consistency.

I'm on to something here. I may not be totally right but I'm not totally wrong that is damn for sure.

 

[ChaosAgent]

My extremely too early take on Cruz is that he’ll bust. So I don’t really care how quickly he gets to mlb. If he never shows MLB stuff then he shouldn’t be here.

If that's your take, we should be rooting for us to get weird and do some sort of prospect/prospect swap with him.

Or a 3rd team of a trade somehow.

E.g.:
Contender trades prospects to Pirates
Other Seller trades player to Contender
Pirates trade Cruz to Other Seller

I think that Tim Williams' implication with trading Cruz is that the team thinks there's a high chance he busts and thus wants to keep his value high and not overexposed at the ML level.

 

[Gallatin]

If that's your take, we should be rooting for us to get weird and do some sort of prospect/prospect swap with him.

Or a 3rd team of a trade somehow.

E.g.:
Contender trades prospects to Pirates
Other Seller trades player to Contender
Pirates trade Cruz to Other Seller

I think that Tim Williams' implication with trading Cruz is that the team thinks there's a high chance he busts and thus wants to keep his value high and not overexposed at the ML level.

I have posted a proposed trade here for O'Neill Cruz. I'm not against it if the package is strong and fits our needs.

You can't give a guy away like this though. You got to get real value because if that 1 in 20 happens he's a Superstar Hall of Famer IMO.

 

[ImporterExporter]

This is the cold hard truth for those willing to read and digest it:

The Pirates have never, and will never, so long as they are a super small market franchise, call up mega prospects right out of the gate or before June, simply because it's absurd to do so for financial reasons.

DJ, and a small army on Twitter (and other largely cesspool social sites) which includes nudnik writers, are acting mystified and becoming belligerent because Oneil Cruz wasn't on the Opening Day roster or at least called up as soon as he started getting hotter which was roughly 4-5 weeks ago.

Let's say Cruz is on the opening day roster. Let's day he comes out of the gate like a rockstar and is now running away with NL ROTY. Do you understand what that means?

It means we go from having him for the next 6 years at a minimum, down to 4, because of the new collective bargaining agreement and/or Super 2 stipulation, if I'm reading things correctly.

Even IF he was a start from day 1, is he A, going to have brought about another 4, 5, 6 wins over the first 2 months? No. That's a fact. And B, even if our record improved by say 2-3 games in the positive, is that worth losing 2 years of service time over?

If you answer yes, then you flat out, have no business being a fan of this team. Go root for the Dodgers or Yankees who an get away with doing what the Twitterverse wants. We operate the way we do, simply because it's the only way to compete with the mega market teams that have 200-300 million payrolls and can largely buy their way out of mistakes and misses. The Pirates have never operated the way DJ and others are clamoring for, and now, all of a sudden, it's this huge travesty.

Cruz is hitting very well over the last few weeks. I agree with that 100000%. I love what he's doing at the dish currently. I've seen numerous games and he looks 10x better than he did in April, which to me, was him being butthurt and sulking over being sent down, given his body language, play on the field, and some comments by coaches/staff.

He's been at best average, and more closely in the shit realm on defense. There is no metric or eye test that can refute that. I've seen plenty of his games this year, and last. If there were advanced analytics available on his D, it would not paint a good picture. And why? Look at the best SS in MLB all the way down to the worst, in terms of errors. Correlate their range factor, and DWAR, and runs saved, etc, etc and you will see, that A, there is no one currently in MLB, as a full time SS, making the sheer volume of mistakes Cruz is making. That's a cold, hard, fact. He's not making countless Ozzie Smith quality plays that would somehow negate all the runs he's cost Indy this year. It's not just booting routine ground balls. He's missed a few catches. He's had about a half dozen awful throws to first on plays that shouldn't have seen the ball sail first base.

And again, these mistakes, lack of focus, are happening in AAA, where this is a larger margin for error against the other team. There is a reason why he's playing in the OF at least once or twice every series.

So, while the bat is, IMO, ready for the jump, his overall game is not. Certainly not at SS. I will not accept a guy botching a play every 2nd or 3rd game. And no MLB manager will either, because no MLB SS is committing errors at that rate.

So, in summary, Cruz is mostly still in AAA, due to service time, yes, and I agree with it 100% because if he does break out, and becomes a star, I want him in this city as long as possible. Bringing him up 2 months ago would have made that an impossibility. We'd be losing him much earlier to FA or a trade, barring an extension, which probably doesn't happen if he blows up right out of the gate. It's precisely why Reynolds didn't sign any of our long term offers after the season he had last year. Fact. Yet people just yell, and scream, and bark like animals.

And to a lesser degree, he came out of the gates, against AAA comp, looking like a guy who didn't give a shit and was going through the motions because he got demoted.

I'm just tired of the whole discussion at this point. You have people who have little to no clue what they're talking about when it comes to the intricacies of baseball, be it development, or more importantly, economically.

Losing service time on Cruz for 2 months of visuals at the MLB level, in a year we're still not going to contend, is factually an absurd hill to die on.

And that's it.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Marcano leading off. Love it. Vogel is getting his last run IMO. That's the only reason I can see him being in the lineup repeatedly given his don't give a shit AB's lately. At the very least I'd flip him and Suwinski from 4 to 6.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Huntington culture really failed. Neither Kuhl nor Musgrove won in Tic-Tac-Toe...

 

[ImporterExporter]

For not having pitched in nearly a year, Rocker looks very good. What a coup it would be to get him at 36, thought I don't think he'll be there.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In the interest of keeping the correct information floating (whether it's "cold hard facts" or not, I'll leave up to the reader): service time manipulation continues to function in the same way under the new CBA. Players are under team control for basically 6 seasons from when they are called up, but due to the service days that make up those seasons, a player is effectively controlled for 7 seasons if they are kept in the minors for about two weeks in the start of April.

The actual wording of the rules is somewhat more complex, but 6 vs. 7 years is the easiest way to keep the rule straight. Effectively, a player does not become an MLB free agent until they have accrued 6 years based on service time, so the initial manipulation teams do is hold them in the minors long enough so that they cannot accrue this 6th full year until the start of their 7th year in MLB.

The super two deadline effectively determines how many of those 7 years are pre-arb, league minimum salary (i.e., team dictates salary) vs. arbitration. A player who is called up before the super two deadline of that season and remains in MLB to earn the full service time will be eligible for 4 years of arbitration after 3 years of pre-arb salary. Reynolds is a good example of this. Unless things change, that's what will happen to Contreras and Suwinski, for example. A player who is called up after the super two deadline of that season and accrues service time is instead given 4 seasons of pre-arb salary and 3 years of arbitration.

The new CBA rewards teams for making baseball rather than service-time dictated decisions by granting them bonus picks for promoting talented prospects immediately, if those talented prospects win ROY accolades. Unsurprisingly, this does not really have a meaningful influence on the overall problem, though Seattle and Kansas City both opted to chase this with their top prospects this season.

Cruz will be controlled by the Pirates through 2028 and it is essentially a foregone conclusion that he will be on a pre-arb salary for 4 of those seasons, and could go to arbitration for the final 3, starting in 2026. Obviously, all of this only outlines what a team can do, and doesn't account for long-term extensions or trading a player prior to big awards in arbitration.


That's how things work -- I'll leave the rest of the chitter chatter or wanton projection/baseless and bizarre assertions to the side. I think the less said about innuendo from bloggers, the better. Cruz is quite obviously a kind of Rorschach for people's preconceptions and biases.

I think what's important to emphasize with Baker's comments is that unless I overlooked it, they lack any real context and may simply be timed for right now because that's when he became available to the media to pump out some mid-season updates. It's not exactly clear from what he said whether his comments were solicited by questions about Cruz in the future or Cruz up to this point in the 2022 season or just in general.

My guess as to what will happen is that there are basically two routes: 1) Baker's comments are largely just more cover for what evaluators around the league have long assumed, which is that Cruz is among the main prospects leaguewide held down for service time reasons. This would mean that they have more to do with Cruz's past this year and the Pirates initial decision-making than with Cruz in the next weeks. Option #2 is that they lack a coherent plan for him and will drag their feet longer, as they half-heartedly flail him around in the OF once a week for a spot that isn't even really available in MLB anyways. They certainly could have an assessment on him that he needs more AAA time, but they haven't treated other prospects like that, almost as a rule.

There also certainly could be more tensions and a relationship headed in the wrong direction, but to that I'll just say that I hope not, and if there is, it's not knowable, and certainly not on the basis of uncredentialed bloggers who have the advantage of being able to imply whatever they want and a content mill that insures they don't have to reckon with that kind of suggestion. I'll only be worried if Mackey or Stumpf say something in that direction.

In the end, I lean more towards option #1 happening, and Baker's remarks being something of a misdirection. The reason I think this is that Mackey has started to say on a number of occasions that he expects him up soon // for the next home stand, and usually, Mackey avoids getting into specifics unless he feels pretty confident in what he says. He does well to keep a clear line between reporting on what is happening and potentially going to happen, on the one hand, and what his own assessment of things is or what should happen, on the other.

I think the time is well overdue, and not because I am an "eternal optimist", or some other kind of hand-wavy, platitudinous nonsense. I am relatively pessimistic about the state of the front office and near-future direction of the team, to say nothing of the obviousness re: ownership. But sticking to the player, there are ABs available at the MLB level at his position, and enough of a season where meaningful peaks and valleys can still occur.

He has about a .950 OPS over a month of games and has been in a good position almost every game at the plate, showing consistency and not really getting into much of a funk. He's had bad games in the field (though something that's avoided commentary in all this repetition is that his errors are often more concentrated, i.e., he has a bad game and racks up 2), but there will be give and take, and he can play as the DH a few times a week. I get that to the extent anyone is even reading this, it's annoying and repetitive to see the same points made, but I truly don't think people understand how impactful his bat can be as a somewhat regular, even if platooned and matched up, shortstop.

That's all I have to say. I hope the Baker remarks will be a blip and we'll have another exciting talent in the lineup next weekend.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Marcano is doing the same thing that Castillo did in spring training, he's forcing the Pirates hand to keep him up on the big league team.

He's hitting well and defending well right now.

 

[dogthateats]

Nice work this inning

 

[DanielPlainview]

12 Ks for Morton good grief lol

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I don't know how leading off the inning with a double and a walk where Underwood was not close to finding the zone didn't pose red flags to Shelton.

 

[dogthateats]

Welp

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

You could smell that f***ing grand slam coming.

Stratton and Underwood are trash tonight.

 

[ChaosAgent]

10 game losing streak incoming.

I guess, why do I care? These guys suck.

We shouldn't have pulled Thompson that early. We simply don't have the length in our bullpen to get through a quality lineup like Atlanta's.

 

[Gallatin]

In the interest of keeping the correct information floating (whether it's "cold hard facts" or not, I'll leave up to the reader): service time manipulation continues to function in the same way under the new CBA. Players are under team control for basically 6 seasons from when they are called up, but due to the service days that make up those seasons, a player is effectively controlled for 7 seasons if they are kept in the minors for about two weeks in the start of April.

The actual wording of the rules is somewhat more complex, but 6 vs. 7 years is the easiest way to keep the rule straight. Effectively, a player does not become an MLB free agent until they have accrued 6 years based on service time, so the initial manipulation teams do is hold them in the minors long enough so that they cannot accrue this 6th full year until the start of their 7th year in MLB.

The super two deadline effectively determines how many of those 7 years are pre-arb, league minimum salary (i.e., team dictates salary) vs. arbitration. A player who is called up before the super two deadline of that season and remains in MLB to earn the full service time will be eligible for 4 years of arbitration after 3 years of pre-arb salary. Reynolds is a good example of this. Unless things change, that's what will happen to Contreras and Suwinski, for example. A player who is called up after the super two deadline of that season and accrues service time is instead given 4 seasons of pre-arb salary and 3 years of arbitration.

The new CBA rewards teams for making baseball rather than service-time dictated decisions by granting them bonus picks for promoting talented prospects immediately, if those talented prospects win ROY accolades. Unsurprisingly, this does not really have a meaningful influence on the overall problem, though Seattle and Kansas City both opted to chase this with their top prospects this season.

Cruz will be controlled by the Pirates through 2028 and it is essentially a foregone conclusion that he will be on a pre-arb salary for 4 of those seasons, and could go to arbitration for the final 3, starting in 2026. Obviously, all of this only outlines what a team can do, and doesn't account for long-term extensions or trading a player prior to big awards in arbitration.


That's how things work -- I'll leave the rest of the chitter chatter or wanton projection/baseless and bizarre assertions to the side. I think the less said about innuendo from bloggers, the better. Cruz is quite obviously a kind of Rorschach for people's preconceptions and biases.

I think what's important to emphasize with Baker's comments is that unless I overlooked it, they lack any real context and may simply be timed for right now because that's when he became available to the media to pump out some mid-season updates. It's not exactly clear from what he said whether his comments were solicited by questions about Cruz in the future or Cruz up to this point in the 2022 season or just in general.

My guess as to what will happen is that there are basically two routes: 1) Baker's comments are largely just more cover for what evaluators around the league have long assumed, which is that Cruz is among the main prospects leaguewide held down for service time reasons. This would mean that they have more to do with Cruz's past this year and the Pirates initial decision-making than with Cruz in the next weeks. Option #2 is that they lack a coherent plan for him and will drag their feet longer, as they half-heartedly flail him around in the OF once a week for a spot that isn't even really available in MLB anyways. They certainly could have an assessment on him that he needs more AAA time, but they haven't treated other prospects like that, almost as a rule.

There also certainly could be more tensions and a relationship headed in the wrong direction, but to that I'll just say that I hope not, and if there is, it's not knowable, and certainly not on the basis of uncredentialed bloggers who have the advantage of being able to imply whatever they want and a content mill that insures they don't have to reckon with that kind of suggestion. I'll only be worried if Mackey or Stumpf say something in that direction.

In the end, I lean more towards option #1 happening, and Baker's remarks being something of a misdirection. The reason I think this is that Mackey has started to say on a number of occasions that he expects him up soon // for the next home stand, and usually, Mackey avoids getting into specifics unless he feels pretty confident in what he says. He does well to keep a clear line between reporting on what is happening and potentially going to happen, on the one hand, and what his own assessment of things is or what should happen, on the other.

I think the time is well overdue, and not because I am an "eternal optimist", or some other kind of hand-wavy, platitudinous nonsense. I am relatively pessimistic about the state of the front office and near-future direction of the team, to say nothing of the obviousness re: ownership. But sticking to the player, there are ABs available at the MLB level at his position, and enough of a season where meaningful peaks and valleys can still occur.

He has about a .950 OPS over a month of games and has been in a good position almost every game at the plate, showing consistency and not really getting into much of a funk. He's had bad games in the field (though something that's avoided commentary in all this repetition is that his errors are often more concentrated, i.e., he has a bad game and racks up 2), but there will be give and take, and he can play as the DH a few times a week. I get that to the extent anyone is even reading this, it's annoying and repetitive to see the same points made, but I truly don't think people understand how impactful his bat can be as a somewhat regular, even if platooned and matched up, shortstop.

That's all I have to say. I hope the Baker remarks will be a blip and we'll have another exciting talent in the lineup next weekend.

Amazing how you can distill it down to a lonely pair of specific options that magically confirm your biases against the Bucs....

You could smell that f***ing grand slam coming.

Stratton and Underwood are trash tonight.

I literally turned it off 30 seconds before it happened....

 

[Gallatin]

10 game losing streak incoming.

I guess, why do I care? These guys suck.

We shouldn't have pulled Thompson that early. We simply don't have the length in our bullpen to get through a quality lineup like Atlanta's.

That little streak was so much fun....

I already miss good baseball.

Thought it was funny how Vogelbach homered in his first at bat after we all talked crap on him yesterday....