Draft R1 #30: Rangers select EJ Emery (RHD, USNTDP/USHL)

[kovazub94]

If that were true, they'd be picked before 30. Once you get past the top players, the high ceiling guys tend to be boom or bust, with more likelihood to bust.

This is the point some folks somehow are missing. If in addition to his already existing skills and physical traits EJ Emery (EJE) also showed a better offensive aspect - he’d be drafted outside of the reachable range for the Rangers. The Rangers are betting that this side will develop ( like examples that were given McD or Skjei) or he will be actually what we want Lindgren to be and with size to absorb the physical side.

Will it happen? Who knows but it’s just as good of a bet as taking for example a guy who shows offensive tendencies but lacks in physical or skating areas. 15%-25% bet

 

[kovazub94]

Would it? Which players have done that?

Those that go college route. I’m more on the conservative timeline until I see indications that a prospect is ready to move to the next level. Can he do 2 years in college and only need 1 year in the AHL? Sure but if the other side of the development spectrum is a bust then 5 years to becoming a full-time NHLer is about the middle ground.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Crazy thought: The Rangers evaluate talent different than a message board and see different potentials.

Also, they actually watch the players play and interact with them directly. Wild that they might know more than Joe Shmoe on the internet looking at scouting reports and going nuts that he said he likes K'Andre Miller.

I’m not going nuts at all, I said it was a fine pick and I liked other players better. Seems like you and a lot of others get their panties in a bunch over the most basic critiques lol

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

I’m not going nuts at all, I said it was a fine pick and I liked other players better. Seems like you and a lot of others get their panties in a bunch over the most basic critiques lol

Plenty of other people saying "We're doomed, he said he plays like Miller" so don't get your panties in a bunch, it wasn't solely directed at you. Do you like other players more based on their scouting reports reading better/differently than Emery's or from watching them more than the scouts did?

I get that this is a message board and everyone's got their opinions, I just find it hard to deride this pick and claim there were all these clearly better options available within 24 hours of it being made.

 

[Kendo]

nah, I don’t believe in drafting for floor. This team does it every time and its cheeks. The players with the higher ceiling have the higher floor. But I don’t think this pick is bad, he has tools to be good at entry denials/exits. I just thought there were better picks there

Every time? Perreault? The 1st round 2018? Chytil? All ceiling picks. You can make the same point but say "half the time," and not have an obvious flaw in your argument.

"The players with the higher ceiling have the higher floor." That's not how it works. Like at all. There are boom or bust prospects in every first round ever. Take Kravtsov. He had undeniable ceiling on draft day. He just wasn't a "safe pick" by any means.

 

[nyr2k2]

I always like the TSN/McKenzie draft rankings the best. Bobby Mac's ranking is a composite of the opinions of 10 scouts from different teams. So those are the guys whose living depends on their ability to identify talent. Far from infallible, but I think it's better than something like Dobber which is fantasy-focused or Button who is an idiot.

Bobby Mac's list had EJ at 27. So the scouts seem to think this is a pretty fair value at this point. Some might think it's a great value, some might think he went a little early, but overall, it's right where he should have gone. For what that's worth.

 

[Luger]

I just hope he is not another Matthew Robertson but in the 1st round of future busts

You're gonna get your share of Robertsons at #49 or even #30. Let's chill out. This is not a #3 OA, this is #30. The Rangers are aiming at getting a quality top-4 D who will play on a cheap ELC when Schneider is playing on his payday UFA contract. Let's see how his development goes in the next 3-4 years before we pass judgments.

 

[Machinehead]

Literally what?

He’s not just a great skater. He’s the most athletic guy (by far) in the entire draft. Please watch him play.

He’s a ball of clay right now. He is raw, but he’s an insane athlete and already has fantastic defensive awareness.

He's one of the best in the draft with transitions as well. Super smart player.

For someone that is always wanting a guy with a great outlet pass or smarts when moving the puck out of the defensive zone, you sure seem to be critical of someone you would invariably love as a pro.

Just a weird take from you. Have you watched him play at all? Anything?

I know he can't score and tbh I care about very little else. Most effective role players were stars at lower levels who converted. Most. "Defensive" players who can't score at lower levels tend to have underlying problems in the defensive zone. Chief among them, they tend to be always there.

I'm not hating or overreacting. He certainly was not off the board by any stretch, and the McIlrath comparison makes no sense.

It's just not the pick I would have made.

 

[Machinehead]

Crazy thought: The Rangers evaluate talent different than a message board and see different potentials.

Sure, but I would unironically take this message board over the Rangers on like half of the decisions the Rangers have made since I've been here.

 

[will1066]

Crazy thought: The Rangers evaluate talent different than a message board and see different potentials.

HFNYR 2019: With Hughes selected, Kaapo Kakko is air-tight at #2. We got him! This kid is gonna be a Ranger!

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I know he can't score and tbh I care about very little else. Most effective role players were stars at lower levels who converted. Most. "Defensive" players who can't score at lower levels tend to have underlying problems in the defensive zone. Chief among them, they tend to be always there.

I'm not hating or overreacting. He certainly was not off the board by any stretch, and the McIlrath comparison makes no sense.

It's just not the pick I would have made.

It's a good thing that his stick work and clearing ability are top notch, then. Unlike most of those guys that get stuck in their own zone.

I'd totally see your point if he couldn't do those things well.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Those that go college route. I’m more on the conservative timeline until I see indications that a prospect is ready to move to the next level. Can he do 2 years in college and only need 1 year in the AHL? Sure but if the other side of the development spectrum is a bust then 5 years to becoming a full-time NHLer is about the middle ground.

The D will look very different by the time Emery turns pro. When Skjei was taken in 2012 there was the "there's no room for this guy" argument when the top four were McD, Girardi, Staal, Del Zotto. By the time Skjei made his debut in 2016 it was a different universe.

 

[Luger]

Crazy thought: The Rangers evaluate talent different than a message board and see different potentials.

Also, they actually watch the players play and interact with them directly. Wild that they might know more than Joe Shmoe on the internet looking at scouting reports and going nuts that he said he likes K'Andre Miller.

Fans evaluate based on style. It's kind of like dog shows where everyone is always cheering for the Labradors, but obviously, the Lab isn't always the most beautiful dog. Here everyone wants top scoring F or smooth skating D with size. But teams need different style players and players who play a certain style aren't always better than players who play every other style.

If you show scouting reports (without mock drafts) to fans, they will consistently choose a 7th rounder who plays everyone's favorite style over a 2nd round pick who is undersized or whose scouting report says he might need to work on skating. But there are reasons why one guy goes 5 rounds ahead of the other one. Style isn't everything.

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

Sure, but I would unironically take this message board over the Rangers on like half of the decisions the Rangers have made since I've been here.

It's not to say everyone here is devoid of any sort of critical thinking or are always wrong compared to the FO, there's more than enough people here that have great finger-on-the-pulse evaluations of situations/players. But on literal draft day I'd like to imagine the FO did their research, talked to the guys they were interested in who were available, and went with who they thought would be BPA according to their rankings. I'll be the first to say my optimism is based on absolutely nothing other than NYR picked him and I want him to succeed for this organization.

It sounds like Emery has a long way to go development-wise like any other player taken at the tail end of the 1st round. I'm just choosing to support NYR's decision. It's hard for me to rationalize shitting on Emery/propping up the other players without ever having seen any of them play with any regularity. Drury seems to run a decent-ish ship so I have some faith in his team.

I'm just here for the ride, rain or shine. Didn't mean to come off as testy/confrontational either @80shockeywasbuns, my apologies cuz I'm sure I did.

 

[RangersFan1994]

 

[bhamill]

I know he can't score and tbh I care about very little else. Most effective role players were stars at lower levels who converted. Most. "Defensive" players who can't score at lower levels tend to have underlying problems in the defensive zone. Chief among them, they tend to be always there.

I'm not hating or overreacting. He certainly was not off the board by any stretch, and the McIlrath comparison makes no sense.

It's just not the pick I would have made.

I hear you, but the number of players who are TRYING to be defensive and don’t care as much about scoring is a really small sample size. Scoring is where the glory is.
I’m going back a ways, but the first NYR that popped into my head was Tom Laidlaw. Drafted out of college he had exactly one goal at the time, when the NCAA was nowhere near the level it is now. He was a defensive d man. Some scoring came some years, both in the NCAA and NHL, but he also had full NHL seasons where he scored one or zero goals.
So I’m saying you’re right, it’s rare, but all that means is he’s a rare player. Or MAY be. In either case his lack of scoring so far means little to me.

 

[B17 Apricots]

I know he can't score and tbh I care about very little else. Most effective role players were stars at lower levels who converted. Most. "Defensive" players who can't score at lower levels tend to have underlying problems in the defensive zone. Chief among them, they tend to be always there.

I'm not hating or overreacting. He certainly was not off the board by any stretch, and the McIlrath comparison makes no sense.

It's just not the pick I would have made.

Let's be honest half the boards want to upgrade Lindgren and Tuba. If you're unsatisfied with their ability to handle the puck you won't like Emery plain and simple. He's big and mobile. Good defensive ability, physical... but the guy is not great with the puck. There's no other way to say it, it's just not a strength right now. If you're in your own zone and there's pressure on you and you can't make a play with the puck all that great defensive stuff goes out the window. It's not a strength at this level, what's it going to look like as he moves up? He's gonna have to take massive steps in that aspect

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I hear you, but the number of players who are TRYING to be defensive and don’t care as much about scoring is a really small sample size. Scoring is where the glory is.
I’m going back a ways, but the first NYR that popped into my head was Tom Laidlaw. Drafted out of college he had exactly one goal at the time, when the NCAA was nowhere near the level it is now. He was a defensive d man. Some scoring came some years, both in the NCAA and NHL, but he also had full NHL seasons where he scored one or zero goals.
So I’m saying you’re right, it’s rare, but all that means is he’s a rare player. Or MAY be. In either case his lack of scoring so far means little to me.

There are always exceptions and anamolies, plus the game and philosophy was way different back then.

A modern day dman should not have to focus on or 'try' to score a decent amount of points at lowerlevels if they are going to be a sure thing in the NHL and be a bonafide 1st round draft pick. It should just happen and flow naturally.

Plus the thing is, the points and offense themselves aren't the problem (moreso the symptom) that he is not very strong @ making plays with the puck on his stick. As the poster above mentioned, if it's a problem in Juniors, it's going to be a big hurdle to not be an issue in the Show. If he was good with the puck on his stick and making plays with it, he woudl have accumualted more points in the NTDP.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I feel like everyone is overreacting to this pick in general. Again, 30th, not 10th. At that spot, a ton of guesswork and luck are involved. If you get any kind of NHL player with any regularity, the odds say you did pretty good.

My interest in each draft wanes and comes, (dependent mainly on if the Rangers drafting relatively high and or have multiple 1sts etc.) I haven't followed the prospects and draftees very closesly in thie draft so I can't comment on if I would have taken someone else etc.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I've never been less interested in a 1st round prospect. Even if he does end up being something, it wont be for another 4 years at least, and we'll all be dead by then so who even cares?

 

[eco's bones]

I always like the TSN/McKenzie draft rankings the best. Bobby Mac's ranking is a composite of the opinions of 10 scouts from different teams. So those are the guys whose living depends on their ability to identify talent. Far from infallible, but I think it's better than something like Dobber which is fantasy-focused or Button who is an idiot.

Bobby Mac's list had EJ at 27. So the scouts seem to think this is a pretty fair value at this point. Some might think it's a great value, some might think he went a little early, but overall, it's right where he should have gone. For what that's worth.

McKenzie is good. I rely on him more than any of the others too. The fact is I'd rather he were still doing the drafts than some of the crew they currently have. As far as Button he'd take a guy who was 4'11 over a 6'0 guy if he thought the little guy had an edge on talent. A lot of his takes are like get the f*** out.....don't even seem realistic. I don't even know why anyone gives him a platform.

I liked Pulkkinen the most. For most people he was an outlier to be a 1st round pick. By the time 30 came around for me it was either him, Chernyshov or Emery. Maybe a case could have been made for Elick too. Anyone other than those guys I wouldn't have been that happy. What didn't make me happy was the Islanders grabbing Pulkkinen in the 2nd round today.

 

[bhamill]

There are always exceptions and anamolies, plus the game and philosophy was way different back then.

A modern day dman should not have to focus on or 'try' to score a decent amount of points at lowerlevels if they are going to be a sure thing in the NHL and be a bonafide 1st round draft pick. It should just happen and flow naturally.

Plus the thing is, the points and offense themselves aren't the problem (moreso the symptom) that he is not very strong @ making plays with the puck on his stick. As the poster above mentioned, if it's a problem in Juniors, it's going to be a big hurdle to not be an issue in the Show. If he was good with the puck on his stick and making plays with it, he woudl have accumualted more points in the NTDP.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I feel like everyone is overreacting to this pick in general. Again, 30th, not 10th. At that spot, a ton of guesswork and luck are involved. If you get any kind of NHL player with any regularity, the odds say you did pretty good.

My interest in each draft wanes and comes, (dependent mainly on if the Rangers drafting relatively high and or have multiple 1sts etc.) I haven't followed the prospects and draftees very closesly in thie draft so I can't comment on if I would have taken someone else etc.

It’s not a matter of one of us being right and one being wrong. It’s simply that all players are unique. This player’s forte is defense. And if you are drafting him for his defense then that is fine. It’s super counter intuitive to say that a player’s defense will not translate because he hasn’t shown any offense of note. There’s no real logic there. If you draft a guy who hasn’t shown any offense and you expect him to provide some… well you may well be disappointed. But a player can be fantastic defensively without being good offensively. There have been plenty of players that fit this mold, they aren’t as common, because most skilled kids WANT to be the goal scoring hero or rack up assists, but that doesn’t mean a player can’t have that different mindset and WANT to be a defensive stalwart.

 

[JCProdigy]

Emery was the pick for a few months. There was speculation Emery would go higher after his under 18 play. San Jose at #14 before Grier traded for pick #11. Skjei was a US development product. The Rangers took him late 1st round pick in 2012. Brady will be signing a HUGE contract on Monday, Emery was a good pick. People here don't know their ass from their elbows.

It's crazy how a few varied scouting reports always make people lose their f***ing minds without having ever seen the player. Nothing new, just funny.

Off-season is in full swing.

I honestly wouldn't trust most opinions on a player's future even if they saw said player's every game played lol.

 

[AKA Chief]

I didn't like this pick. Reading he might be a #4 or 5 defensive dman does not excite me. Not when Sam O'Reilly was on the board (and went 2 picks later when EDM traded up to get him). I know you don't draft for need but O'Reilly was the highest guy on my board when the Rangers picked. A physical RW with offensive potential sure seems like something our prospect pool could use. After that I would have picked Leo Sahlin Wallenius or Cole Hutson. At that point in the draft, and even more so with no 2nd or 3rd round picks, I want more potential upside. Hope he proves me wrong.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It's crazy how a few varied scouting reports always make people lose their f***ing minds without having ever seen the player. Nothing new, just funny.

Off-season is in full swing.

Rangers fans: We need more shutdown defenseman!

*Drury drafts a shutdown D

Rangers fans: Ugh, we drafted a D-man who can't even score!

 

[Juxtaposer]

I’m absolutely stunned at the reactions in this thread. Emery was one of my favorite prospects this year and fulfills a really unique niche in the NHL: the 6’3”, elite-skating, shutdown RHD. I know Emery himself made the Miller comp, but it’s not a good one. Brandon Carlo is more appropriate, and ironically I think Emery is actually a potentially good partner for Miller.

The physical tools are immaculate, and his ability to suffocate plays in the defensive zone is wonderful. There’s a reason he was paired with Cole Hutson at the U18, and that’s that he’s the perfect partner for a guy who likes to roam. Emery will kill plays, make a good first pass, and has enough puck-handling ability to facilitate plays in the offensive zone (though he obviously isn’t a real offensive threat himself).

This guy is the type of player you find littered all over championship teams. He may not have huge potential, but he could absolutely be a #4 who stabilizing your middle pairing alongside a more adventurous offensive defenseman. Even if he doesn’t develop much more than what he is right now, he’s still very likely to play in the NHL and would become the sort of bottom pairing defensemen teams pay through the nose for at the trade deadline. I don’t know what more you could ask for at 30th overall.