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Quinn Hughes is having a Hart caliber season

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Chairman Maouth said:
The Canucks do have something. They've had the best defenceman in the NHL for the past two years.
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That's pretty debatable.

If Hughes is so awesome, why is he 6th on his own team in terms of quality of competition?

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If the guy was actually a Hart trophy candidate he'd be playing against the league's best as much as possible.

Instead Vancouver coaching is sacrificing the rest of their defencemen in order to get Hughes favorable matchups. Of course his relative possession metrics are going to shine because of this.

He's a good offensive guy, but he needs to start playing against the best more consistently in order to be considered the best.
 
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Chairman Maouth said:
I wouldn't have said "every major news source" because that's a broad-brush comment that's just begging to be refuted. I use my eyes and basic stats to judge the players. Hughes is not only better than Makar for the second year in a row, but he has widened the gap.
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And yet, you still haven't provided any that has Hughes at 1
 
Chairman Maouth said:
I have no idea what stats you're using but I think you're using rat statistics.
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I'm sorry you don't know much about hockey statstics.

Trying to use relative stats to prove a guy is the best D-man in the NHL kind of proves that point, but I guess Canucks fans have to have something to grasp onto this season.
 
Bank Shot said:
I'm sorry you don't know much about hockey statstics.

Trying to use relative stats to prove a guy is the best D-man in the NHL kind of proves that point, but I guess Canucks fans have to have something to grasp onto this season.
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Hughes leads the league in every major stat for a defenceman. But hey, at least idiots admire your argument.
 
Chairman Maouth said:
Already did.
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Don't use rat stats. Use real ones.
He's not number one in possession stats.
He's not number one in goals or points.
He doesn't even PK.

The whole arguement for Hughes is leaning on stats relative to teammates. Of course those will look good when the second and third pairings are just guys acquired based on size, and are total garbage. Despite that, they still aren't running Hughes hard against the other team's best.
 
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Bank Shot said:
That's pretty debatable.

If Hughes is so awesome, why is he 6th on his own team in terms of quality of competition?

PuckIQ | Woodmoney

Hockey Analytics
puckiq.com puckiq.com

If the guy was actually a Hart trophy candidate he'd be playing against the league's best as much as possible.

Instead Vancouver coaching is sacrificing the rest of their defencemen in order to get Hughes favorable matchups. Of course his relative possession metrics are going to shine because of this.

He's a good offensive guy, but he needs to start playing against the best more consistently in order to be considered the best.
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Look at the stats you posted a little closer. You will see his usage % is flat across all competition. If he was getting favourable starts he wouldn't have the same % against elite as grit. What that actually shows is that 2 defensemen see elite competition 4% more than Quinn Hughes, but he is used in all situations and isn't given favourable matchups. Cale Makar has a near identical Elite % usage as Hughes does and almost identical actual minutes (where Hughes is tied for his team lead in elite competion minutes played). The difference between the two teams spreads is that Colorado uses all their other D evenly against Elite competition while the Canucks have 2 regulars that are kept very low (Deharnais at 18%...). Which inflates the Soucy pairs numbers by that 4%.

Elite - Grit is not a good measurement of favourable deployment unless you look at the spread. Is Makar kept away from Elite competition if he plays it as much as Hughes does? What about Mackinnon who is also about the same for elite %?

Also a 4% swing in gritensity to medium competition is not enough to account for Hughes having double the possession time of any other defenseman. Last I saw it posted during a game he had double Makars puck on stick time per game. He led the whole league in that measure by a full hour last year and is number 1 again this year (though I havent seen it reposted since December, the lead was insane).

That is all to say the bolded part from your post is objectively false by the data you yourself shared. The conclusion you can make is that he plays a couple percent less against medium competition by comparison to some stars and those minutes go to low qual competition, but you cannot frame it as he doesn't play the best enough and then post stats that show he plays them as much as other stars as a percent of ice time (but significantly more in actual ice time). Your own stats show he plays the top competition about as much as anyone in this discussion.
 
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geebster said:
Look at the stats you posted a little closer. You will see his usage % is flat across all competition. If he was getting favourable starts he wouldn't have the same % against elite as grit. What that actually shows is that 2 defensemen see elite competition 4% more than Quinn Hughes, but he is used in all situations and isn't given favourable matchups. Cale Makar has a near identical Elite % usage as Hughes does and almost identical actual minutes (where Hughes is tied for his team lead in elite competion minutes played). The difference between the two teams spreads is that Colorado uses all their other D evenly against Elite competition while the Canucks have 2 regulars that are kept very low (Deharnais at 18%...). Which inflates the Soucy pairs numbers by that 4%.

Elite - Grit is not a good measurement of favourable deployment unless you look at the spread. Is Makar kept away from Elite competition if he plays it as much as Hughes does? What about Mackinnon who is also about the same for elite %?

Also a 4% swing in gritensity to medium competition is not enough to account for Hughes having double the possession time of any other defenseman. Last I saw it posted during a game he had double Makars puck on stick time per game. He led the whole league in that measure by a full hour last year and is number 1 again this year (though I havent seen it reposted since December, the lead was insane).

That is all to say the bolded part from your post is objectively false by the data you yourself shared. The conclusion you can make is that he plays a couple percent less against medium competition by comparison to some stars and those minutes go to low qual competition, but you cannot frame it as he doesn't play the best enough and then post stats that show he plays them as much as other stars as a percent of ice time (but significantly more in actual ice time). Your own stats show he plays the top competition about as much as anyone in this discussion.
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More icetime against terrible players makes a massive difference. There is a reason coaches in the NHL line match so hard.

Hughes seeing 33% of his icetime vs the other teams bad players vs Makar at 25% is a big, big swing when it comes to possession numbers. Then You have Makar at 34% vs elites and Hughes at 32%. 2% at the top and 8% at the bottom. This stuff adds up.

You have to keep in mind the swing between the best teams, and worst teams when it comes to possession stats is maybe around 10%. Most teams are separated by 5% or less. Small percentages make big differences.

Then you have to take into account that Tocchet likes to put out Hughes on shifts against the other team's best when the puck is headed up ice, rather than when he needs to defend. The whole situation is structured around getting Hughes clean air. Zero PK time also helps possession stats because many PKers start 5v5 situations pinned in their own end when penalties expire.
 
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nowhereman said:
In Oilersville? Where stad-padding is the name of the game?

If you don't think Hughes is a Hart candidate, you're clueless.
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Oilers are really padding their goals against stat this season. :D:D


A. Canucks aren't even currently in a playoff spot. McDavid was the best player in the NHL by a mile and didn't even make it as a finalist because his team missed. That isn't Hughes.

B. If it were awarded today it'd be Hellebucyk, Mackinnon, and Draisaitl.
 
Bank Shot said:
More icetime against terrible players makes a massive difference. There is a reason coaches in the NHL line match so hard.

Hughes seeing 33% of his icetime vs the other teams bad players vs Makar at 25% is a big, big swing when it comes to possession numbers. Then You have Makar at 34% vs elites and Hughes at 32%. 2% at the top and 8% at the bottom. This stuff adds up.

You have to keep in mind the swing between the best teams, and worst teams when it comes to possession stats is maybe around 10%. Most teams are separated by 5% or less. Small percentages make big differences.

Then you have to take into account that Tocchet likes to put out Hughes on shifts against the other team's best when the puck is headed up ice, rather than when he needs to defend. The whole situation is structured around getting Hughes clean air. Zero PK time also helps possession stats because many PKers start 5v5 situations pinned in their own end when penalties expire.
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OK... but you said he isnt put out there against top competition enough, which is objectively false by your own stats. You said it maybe 6 different times now and it remains false by your own numbers. Your PK is irrelevant since he leads in 5 on 5 puck on stick time both per game and in total. The below demonstrates that you are pointing to a tiny difference that is actually meaningless. Lets start by asking a question...

Do you believe Ekholm (the Oilers TOP elite competition defenseman and known for being a matchup guy) is hidden from top competition?

Hughes has a 3% lower elite usage than him, that must be a HUGE gap right? Hughes plays... 4 seconds less than Ekholm per game against elite competition. Thats the astronomical gap you seem to be thinking amounts to him being sheltered enough to warrant a disqualification from MVP consideration.

Lets look at the other number you say is a big difference. At the minutes he plays, 8% against lower competition is 45 seconds per game, but thats WITH him playing higher minutes than these comparables, so hes actually facing 20 seconds MORE elite competition per game than Makar despite his 2% lower percentage (again from your own stats).

I used Makar since he has a massive gap between elite and grit, but guys like Draisaitl have a tiny one (his usage is flat compared to Mackinnon or Makar) so my argument would work even better there. Using the most extreme example with the most comparable minutes and production defenseman in the league, Hughes plays 20 seconds MORE against elite players and 45 seconds too much (by usage percent) against Gritensity.

Not to mention that if you look at his production splits... if I use Makars competition splits on Hughes' stats (maintain his minutes and production splits) so he loses that 8% against low competition... his point totals change by... less than 1 goal. So he'd still be the highest points per game defenseman in the league even with that. Sure his GF% against bad competition is 68% and he dominates them, but the percentage difference in deployment is so small that it doesnt actually change his numbers much.

If him facing 20 seconds of elite competition more 5 on 5 and 40 seconds of bad competition more than Makar, adding a SINGLE goal (rounded up) to his points totals is enough to say hes given favourable matchups and thats the only reason he dominates possession and produces at the highest rate in his position... Then you might want to reconsider if your take is more about bias or actually about the numbers you yourself are touting.

An aside, Draisaitl has a flat usage just like Hughes does... does the 8% more he plays against bad competition mean he should be disqualified against Mackinnon? Hes got a 70% GF% against bad competition so that 8% must be a big deal. Small percentages make big differences, after all. (I didnt do the math on their splits but willing to bet it doesnt matter there either).
 
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geebster said:
I used Makar since he has a massive gap between elite and grit, but guys like Draisaitl have a tiny one (his usage is flat compared to Mackinnon or Makar) so my argument would work even better there. Using the most extreme example with the most comparable minutes and production defenseman in the league, Hughes plays 20 seconds MORE against elite players and 45 seconds too much (by usage percent) against Gritensity.
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Hughes has played 246 minutes against grit in 38 games. Makar 196 in 44. That's not a 45 seconds per game difference. More like 2 minutes per game. That is significant. Like 10% of Hughes total 5v5 icetime.
 
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