History means little. This generation of German players don't have a mental block against Italians.
Germany will win in regulation. The team has noticeably improved with each successive match. The fullback controversy has been settled resoundingly in a way that it wasn't at the World Cup. The fluid interchange in buildup between Kroos, Boateng, and Hummels has been fantastic all tournament. The play in the final third has improved a lot. Draxler's performance last match was a revelation. He has been mightily inconsistent at club level - so I'm hesitant to expect him to reproduce last match's performance - but this German buildup will provide him with plenty of opportunities to break down the opposition defense if his dribbling is half as successful as it was vs. Slovakia.
Conte is a better manager than Löw, but I don't think Jogi will have no answer at all to the 3-5-2 like Del Bosque. Susceptibility to counters is a slight concern, but Spain had already shown a severe weakness in this area vs. Croatia, whereas Germany have done a better job at suppressing counters all tournament, including against Poland, one of the best counterattacking teams in the whole bracket.