Putting the "Special" in Special Teams: Sabres Powerplay and Penalty-kill 2024-25 Edition

[Chainshot]

So thinking about the top 6 forward thread on the main trade board and @Gabrielor looking for a player who is good on entries on the PP while I have been mildly agitated by how crap their selection of defensemen have been on RD are for the PK had me thinking it might be time to just break out special teams talk to its own thread.

The PP entry is the first place to look at their issues. They invariably try to carry the puck in while most of the unit are stationary at the offensive blueline. Teams stack the blueline and then the Sabres almost invariably make no adjustment to shoot the puck in or dump it behind anyone. There is a level of work that they have not been willing to put in when they have additional manpower to take the man on the shoot in and have someone else support to take the puck. This was a feature of the Granato teams on the PP and remains so with largely the same personnel as we get 10% into the regular season with Ruff at the helm. It's reflective of the issues they had under Granato with regards to establishing a forecheck as well and at this point I'm wondering if this is something they can work out of some of these players. There is no other option but that silly drop-pass slingshot entry, rarely any attempt let alone success at dumping things in behind the defense and going hard enough to arrive disruptively. Teams don't have to adjust, they can simply stack the blueline and deny entries. With their continued horrendousness at the faceoff dot, that means it is unlikely for them to begin with possession in the offensive zone. We know the results, with a league worst 6.9% rate and having been outscored 2-1 while up a man thus far.

I'm not sure an entry guy is going to fix that. I do wonder if a retrieval guy would.

I did like that they are drifting Thompson into different spots to try to get unblocked looks. They are trying to get two men to the net front with Zucker and Cozens. Both of those are good things but the establishment of possession in the zone is the biggest hinderance to their PP success IMO. And if they can't carry it in with the personnel they have, finding a way to get two bodies on the puck on a dump in is the next way.

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Switching to the PK for a moment and I have liked the energy and stick positioning from the forwards more than in the recent past. They seem to have made some strides. Also, they are getting guys to block shots in ways that weren't part of the recent PK strategy, especially among the forwards. HOWEVER, there remains a pronounced issue with how their defensemen play on the PK, particularly whoever is tasked with being the RD.

Clifton gets eager to engage physically which can draw him out of position but seems like the best of the bunch, he is also tops in right shot TOI on the PK. Jokiharju, for his strides at ES, remains one of the most lost players in his own PK formation of any defenseman have watched with regularity. Putting him back in PK rotation after trading away EJ last year has not borne fruit. He's the easiest of their defensemen to attack because he drifts and moves his stick out of the cross-seam lane AND he rarely engages his man in close proximity to box out their stick. He's my biggest worry PKing right now as he's drawn the 3rd most PK minutes of all their defense. Power, Byram and Dahlin are all about the same level (around half of Jokiharju's TOI while shorthanded) though Dahlin is now last in SHTOI of their six regulars.

The other issue on the PK to me is how they are regularly slaughtered at the dot. Their "best" faceoff guy is Krebs (5 of 6) but he's 7th in SHTOI among their forwards. Cozens (4th in SHTOI) and McLeod (3rd) are both taking the majority of the draws and are markedly worse than Tuch who is a RW by trade. It's interesting that much like Dahlin, Thompson has been dropped almost completely from the PK rotation (he was 4th last season among forwards with even more than Girgensons). Cozens is actually down off his SH faceoff percentage from last year (43% down to 40%) but is their primary draw taker again. Ellis is supposedly working as their faceoff coaching specialist and right now there has been no improvement there among their high-use folks.

Anyway, thought this could be broken out since right now being 32nd on the PP and 25th on the PK is part of why they are yet again below .500.

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[Gabrielor]

The PP to me suffers 2 distinct issues:

1) They can't enter the zone with regularity, and that, imo, is a personnel issue. Peterka might get better, Ostlund/Rosen/Neuchev might one day in the far future solve it, but in the now, they have no elite speed/puck handler.

You're right, I struggle to find a guy I have in mind. Part of that post was for inspiration.


2) They have no right wall left shot playmaking/scoring threat, which trickles into multiple issues:

a) teams shadow the Tage-shot, eliminating it
b) zero middle-of-the-ice penetration; no one can make that pass
c) very low / zero success at a cross ice play
d) prone to easy destruction by any pk who plays tight man, which against us is all of them

This one should be more solvable, as even someone like Kadri can do it.

 

[Chainshot]

I'm not sure Kadri is the shining light for that given his heavy offensive zone use and limited productivity - the Flames are getting outshot, out expected and outscored with him on the ice. Seems like the guy they could use is someone they dealt last spring honestly. *sigh*

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I really hate the drop back pass for every zone entry attempt. Just go forward or dump and chase. Stop wasting 20 seconds on every power play by cycling it back like it's a goddamn reverse flying V

 

[TageGod]

I really hate the drop back pass for every zone entry attempt. Just go forward or dump and chase. Stop wasting 20 seconds on every power play by cycling it back like it's a goddamn reverse flying V

Sorry, everyone does it, gets them standing still for an easier dump in recovery.

 

[Chainshot]

I really hate the drop back pass for every zone entry attempt. Just go forward or dump and chase. Stop wasting 20 seconds on every power play by cycling it back like it's a goddamn reverse flying V

The guys at the Hockey PDO cast say that it is the most effective entry by percentage in the league. I’m simply not a fan of how they do it.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

The guys at the Hockey PDO cast say that it is the most effective entry by percentage in the league. I’m simply not a fan of how they do it.

The only time I liked it was Dahlin last game when he sold it and then went 1 on 4 and got a quality chance out of it. Stats might say it's effective in a vacuum, but not for these guys, clearly.

 

[Chainshot]

The only time I liked it was Dahlin last game when he sold it and then went 1 on 4 and got a quality chance out of it. Stats might say it's effective in a vacuum, but not for these guys, clearly.

Yeah, the nuance of it is something I'm curious about - the carry vs. the shoot-in vs. the chip. It seems like they don't do well with anything other than the carry and that is not particularly effective for them right now. As you say, there are a lot of 1-on-4 moments which are rarely successful.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I don't think the PP is a personnel thing, at least not on ice.

 

[Chainshot]

I don't think the PP is a personnel thing, at least not on ice.

I mean, they don’t have the automatic zone entry that was Eichel. And they don’t have the low slot/crease play that was Reinhart. They have to find another way.

And it seems like a bunch of what they need to do again involves effort and body contact.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I mean, they don’t have the automatic zone entry that was Eichel. And they don’t have the low slot/crease play that was Reinhart. They have to find another way.

And it seems like a bunch of what they need to do again involves effort and body contact.

They're right in the middle of the pack for xG/60 5v4. The actual stats are awful, near the absolute bottom for PDO, xGAE.

 

[Fezzy126]

Feels like we have enough guys that are good at transitioning the puck in Dahlin, Tage, Tuch, Peterka, and Cozens that gaining the zone shouldn't be an issue. It does feel like they're terrible at taking advantage of the extra man in puck battles when they do chip or dump, seems like an engagement issue there. More time with Ruff should fix that.

One big issue is their down low play. There are times that the PK keeps 3 guys high even when we move the puck down low, and we seem to force feed the pass back up to the point rather than taking advantage of the 2-on-1 down low. That part is infuriating to watch.

But my biggest thing with the PP is Dahlin. All the great power plays had a QB at the top that stirred the drink: Letang, Karlsson, Gonchar, Burns, Carlson - all guys that made their PP go.

Right now Rasmus just isn't where he needs to be as a PP QB, He's good, but we need him to be great. There are times that he pinches when he should drop, he shoots when he should pass, he passes when he needs to shoot. He's stationary when he should move. Don't get me wrong, there are many, many glimpses of greatness, but it's just not consistent enough. When he consistently controls the game from the top of the zone, this PP will be great.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

In regard to the PK, I think one aspect they are missing this season as opposed to last is Erik Johnson. Not specifically EJ, but that vet presence who knows where to be positionally. He averaged over 3 minutes a game last year, and Power averaged almost 2 minutes a game, where this year he's getting under a minute.

Another thing that baffles me a little is how little PK time Malenstyn is getting. He was one of the better PKing forwards last year in Washington, yet he's 6th among forwards for Buffalo. Meanwhile Tuch and Cozens have been very mediocre on the PK and get double the ice time. Cozes has been on the ice for 3 PP goals against, Tuch has been on the ice for 5. Malenstyn and Lafferty have been on the ice for a combined 0, maybe mix it up and try the grinders.

 

[HaNotsri]

I think we should play our best offensive players in PP1 and a PP2 unit that can transition to 5 vs 5. I don't know why we play so many forwards when our defensemen have way better skills.

I would like a pp without static positions and lots of mobility. Shots should come from surprising angles and positions instead of looking for the optimal play. Thompsons one timer is good enough to be taken from closer to the blueline.

Tuch
Thompson-Benson-Dahlin
Byram

Cozens
Quinn-Peterka-Power
Jokiharju

Swap Jokiharju for Kulich if it's early in the PP.

 

[Diaspora]

I think we should play our best offensive players in PP1 and a PP2 unit that can transition to 5 vs 5. I don't know why we play so many forwards when our defensemen have way better skills.

I would like a pp without static positions and lots of mobility. Shots should come from surprising angles and positions instead of looking for the optimal play. Thompsons one timer is good enough to be taken from closer to the blueline.

Tuch
Thompson-Benson-Dahlin
Byram

Cozens
Quinn-Peterka-Power
Jokiharju

Swap Jokiharju for Kulich if it's early in the PP.

I think this is an interesting take. We have enough offensive talent on the blue line to make something like that work. Other than a lack of confidence that the players have the mental flexibility to execute on it, why wouldn't the coaches try to develop plays using those kinds of tactics?

That's a serious question to anyone who may have done a deeper dive into PP strategy.

 

[Chainshot]

I think we should play our best offensive players in PP1 and a PP2 unit that can transition to 5 vs 5. I don't know why we play so many forwards when our defensemen have way better skills.

I would like a pp without static positions and lots of mobility. Shots should come from surprising angles and positions instead of looking for the optimal play. Thompsons one timer is good enough to be taken from closer to the blueline.

Tuch
Thompson-Benson-Dahlin
Byram

Cozens
Quinn-Peterka-Power
Jokiharju

Swap Jokiharju for Kulich if it's early in the PP.

Mostly because defensemen aren't as conditioned to taking shots off the flank so it tends to limit their usefulness as the flank shooter. Most teams are trying to move away from having 2 defensemen on a unit, let alone leaning into having 2 on both units.

 

[HaNotsri]

Mostly because defensemen aren't as conditioned to taking shots off the flank so it tends to limit their usefulness as the flank shooter. Most teams are trying to move away from having 2 defensemen on a unit, let alone leaning into having 2 on both units.

I thought that was based on there usually being more skill in the forward group. Dahlin is likely our best passer and when he scores it's often after getting closer to the net.
If they swap positions more often (I don't get why they stay so much in position instead of rotating) it would get defensemen into both traditional positions as well as forward positions.

I wouldn't advocate this if it wasn't for the Mitts/Byram trade. We have 3 highly skilled d now and not using one feels sub-optimal.

Joker was just if they enter the ice with 30 seconds left on the pp. If they start or have more time I'd put Kulich there.

 

[kirby11]

The thing I never understand about the powerplay entries is why none of the forwards swoop back during the drop pass sequence so the person with the puck has passing options. Then, the 4-man stack at the line has to respect that the puck carrier can do something other than try to solo their way into the zone or dump and chase and be the only person hitting the blue line with speed. I see other teams do this pretty consistently.

Would also like to see Byram get more PP time as the kind of 4th forward rover he was during the first couple games last year before Granato and Ellis made him start following the "stand still and do nothing but pass to Tage" plan

 

[kirby11]

Feels like we have enough guys that are good at transitioning the puck in Dahlin, Tage, Tuch, Peterka, and Cozens that gaining the zone shouldn't be an issue. It does feel like they're terrible at taking advantage of the extra man in puck battles when they do chip or dump, seems like an engagement issue there. More time with Ruff should fix that.

One big issue is their down low play. There are times that the PK keeps 3 guys high even when we move the puck down low, and we seem to force feed the pass back up to the point rather than taking advantage of the 2-on-1 down low. That part is infuriating to watch.

But my biggest thing with the PP is Dahlin. All the great power plays had a QB at the top that stirred the drink: Letang, Karlsson, Gonchar, Burns, Carlson - all guys that made their PP go.

Right now Rasmus just isn't where he needs to be as a PP QB, He's good, but we need him to be great. There are times that he pinches when he should drop, he shoots when he should pass, he passes when he needs to shoot. He's stationary when he should move. Don't get me wrong, there are many, many glimpses of greatness, but it's just not consistent enough. When he consistently controls the game from the top of the zone, this PP will be great.

The Eichel/RoR/Reinhart triangle passing play to set up the one-timer from below the faceoff dots was such easy money. Unfortunately, Benson is about the only reliable bumper guy on the team now, and as you noted, they never look to actually make plays down low, it's just moving the puck to eventually cycle it back up top for the obvious one timers.

 

[BFLO]

Looking at some PK advanced stats from NST:

xGF/60 1.43 6th in the league
xGA/60 5.76 5th in the league
xGF% 19.88% 4th in the league

GF/60 1.16 14th
GA/60 9.27 22nd
GF% 11.11% 16th

To me these stats say that our system is good and the skaters are playing exceptionally well. But that the goal tending is letting us down big time.

Last year was the opposite. We had poor xGA but good GA because UPL was playing out of his mind.

EJ was not good on the PK last year, it was UPL who was good.

When our system does break down though, it is almost always one of the D-men chasing out of position that kills us, they have all been guilty at one point or another.